Good analysis Richard, thank you. There is nothing I disagree with, and I think the picture by 2035, just 10 years hence, will be both much clearer and drastically different from the mainstream picture today, much along the lines of your higher projections.
My own view is that the problem now is runaway methane emissions, from tundra and permafrost in the short term, and coastal clathrates thereafter. As you say, those are already not in our control and we can only record the numbers as they happen.
I suspect your estimates of the reduction in populations may be too moderate, and that climate change, food shortages, mass migration, wars and border conflicts, increasing diseases and the fall in birth rates, will collapse many populations. If you consider that generally a growth curve is more gentle than a collapse curve, and that the population has risen from 2.4billion to 8 billion in my single lifetime, then I suspect the collapse will be very fast.
Unfortunately the methane situation above means that a collapse in human population may reduce CO2 emissions, but that will no longer much affect climate outcomes that will increasingly be driven by methane.
My one consolation here in Europe is that AMOC collapse seems increasingly imminent and that may cool northern Europe, at least sufficiently to reduce coastal land temperatures. I have in fact positioned myself on that coast 6 years ago on that basis. Of course the differences between higher land temperatures and colder sea temperatures will create the conditions for very violent storms, not dissimilar to the catastrophic Valencia flash flooding a couple of weeks ago. But it was the best I could think of at the time, and I haven't come up with a better plan yet.
Lastly, I note your comments about your involvement in 'special interest' groups, particularly in America. I have assumed that Project 2025 is designed to protect those megarich Americans in Fortress America, with ruthlessness towards the existing population and civilisation, and indeed the rest of the world. Trump's plans to collapse the current economy to cement control of American assets, technology and military will have the incidental effect of collapsing economic activity, and hence CO2 emissions from the World's major producer. That reduction in economic activity will also reduce CO2 emissions from countries that export to America, notably China, and even reduce air travel, etc. However it will leave most Americans in a most desperate and dangerous situation - not a good place to be for the foreseeable future!
Thanks again for your knowledgable and comprehensive analysis. I hope many more people read it and better understand what is about to happen to them.
A very confusing article, Richard. I'm just a simple old physician with a degree in chemistry from Wittenberg, '67, and a professional lifetime in medicine/psychiatry/stress research/addiction medicine. But when I discovered C3S (EU) recently, and read that 1.2 trillion tons of global ice were melting annually, 3.3 billion daily last summer, I started reading everything I could get my hands on about our production of heat energy, the equivalent of 20 Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND (Eliot Jacobson), where one pound of ice absorbs 144 BTUs as it melts. And, recently, I read their June 5, 2024 article "The Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", in which they found "the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023-MaY 2024) IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD, AT 0.75 degC above the 1991-2020 average...". Simple math gives a 0.214 degC annual ave. temp increase for that 3.5 yr. period and may portend a 1 degC increase EVERY FIVE YEARS. So, all of your "moderate" predictions are bogus and a child born today might see a 6 degC world on his/her 23rd BD. Little wonder that PEW Survey found that 47% of Americans 18-50 are choosing NOT to reproduce, ever. C3S, also, reports that 2/3rds of the 220,000 glaciers may melt by 2,100. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 100 yrs. and holds 20 times the heat energy that water vapor holds, even though 1 trillion tons of water vapor are evaporating from the surface daily, but remains only 10-14 days before falling back as record setting rains, floods, etc.
Some old gal in a seminar at Marietta College recently sarcastically called me her "data guy" when I kept interrupting to correct her 20 yo data on the environmental collapse we are well into. I guess that makes me a devotee of hard science, and i can live with that. The administration invited me not to return to the college. I can live with that, too. But, I appreciate your efforts and those of a handful of us truth tellers willing to attempt to tell anyone who'll listen that we have run out of time and our climate is collapsing. Mother Nature and God almighty are about to make a damn fool out of Our newly re-elected Mad King (wannabe) Donald, and there will be a chorus of us yelling "We told you so!". Have a blessed evening, Gregg
Hmmm. maybe the links in my comment may be useful to add to your database ....I firmly suggest you read Unsettled by Koonin and A very convenient warming by Wrightstone. We are faced with extreme scientific perspectives and the more digging makes it even more so.
True….. but its also about data interpretation in this science……… Timescale and trends not just transients… most of the models don’t produce the future trends.. makes you wonder.
Richard, there is much to digest here. As you know, I am hardly on the hopium side of this issue, and always come down hard on the side that we are in the process of exterminating ourselves without radical action. This election has essentially extinguished remaining hope for me, but your predictions for deaths by 2050 I will need to study further. That shocks even me, a person who would be labeled as a crazy by the denial/hopium crowd. As always, I appreciate your work.
Well thought out. I suspect it'll be faster than you lay out here. Once the final cascade failure starts it's possible that the modern world could be over in a few months. That's when most of the urban population will starve as the logistics systems break down. There'll probably be a few islands of sanity around for a while but they'll lose all their technology to entropy over the next few decades.
I wish the news was better but as you say "cascade failure" has started. So many things are starting to work against us now. This is not unexpected but still, it's kind of awe inspiring in a terrible way.
Did you give up on the wild plant foraging classes?
Afraid I did, I realised to get customers I'd have to create a youtube or insta channel and start making videos about plants and fungi to slowly build a following before I might get together enough people to come to classes, advertising isn't enough. I gave up. I'm not sure we have the time. I've focussed on improving the forest garden I started instead. I left my e mail address in the comments of the first pinned article of your Me if you ever feel like having a conversation outside of comments.
A second more serious question Richard, and I mean this with all due respect and sincerity. As you know my respect for your work is immense.
I find that whenever one of these newsletters appear in my inbox I am immediately thrust into a sort of alarm following by helpless melancholy. My own writing is a response of sorts -trying to make sense of moving forward inspite of this knowledge.
I am now of the mind to not receive your dispatches into my inbox now and just…support your work but ignore and delay reading it unless I’m already in a despondent place.
What do you think is the value of having this knowledge? What is the impact you hope to have on your audience now that the situation is manifest (I mean for godsake we’ve gotten the “tomatoes in November are the front page of collapse stage”. I honestly just scour comments for people debunking you at this point and it’s constantly fruitless.
Thanks, again this is a sincere question not an attempt to denigrate your work.
That's actually worth a whole article and it is something I have thought of. When I started writing these papers I thought of myself as an "educator". You know, fighting disinformation and helping build an informed electorate.
Then, when I saw just HOW BAD things are, I saw myself as a sentinel raising the alarm and rousing people to action. That kept me at it for the last 4 years.
Now that I am reasonably sure what's going to happen is there any point to continuing?
We (the 1% who are paying attention) know what's going on, we know what the reality is, we know the end of the book. What's the point of reading through all stuff in the middle. Hell, put the book down and go out and soak up the "world that is" before it becomes the "world that was".
In the end it comes down to a sense of "knowledge is power". KNOWING what's going on around you immunizes you from disinformation and lies. It protects you from those selling "false hope" and lies. It allows you to SEE reality clearly and make more informed choices.
And hey, I think 20% will still be alive. That's just under a billion people. About 1890 population levels. You could be one of those people or your kids might. What's improving their odds worth to you?
I'm just saying, nothing is for certain. I could be wrong. This is what the numbers look like to me. I constantly hope someone will jump in and explain to me how I am looking at this the wrong way. I HOPE the mainstream science is right but I am telling you that I think it isn't.
Nothing is for certain.
We could be visited by benevolent aliens in 3 years who share fusion technology with us. It's unlikely but unlikely things do happen (see Chicxulub Impact Event). I am telling you what the numbers indicate NOT what will "for sure" happen.
I do hope for an article plumbing the depths of this question. My wife has asked me this very question for at least a decade, "What are you going to do with all that knowledge of how the climate and earth systems are changing? What is the value of knowing all this that makes you so despondent?"
I agree that there is some value to knowing truth from conjecture. The utility of accurately taking 2 or 3 rational steps towards an effect from a known cause. But I admit the philosophic rational is beyond me.
I also have a sense of 2030 being a watershed year. Perhaps only the beginning of a watershed decade? But 2050 will be a different planet, hardly even imaginable even to sci-fi fans. The die off will be rapid, grotesque and widespread. Managing, avoiding or ignoring the mountains of dead bodies will be a full time occupation for all those not criminally and barbarically exploiting the circumstance for their own benefit.
Why so glum? We gotta die anyway. Listen, this is your opportunity to get right with God. We are all about to meet Him. Sooner or later. You want to fo that unprepared? I want to say "Yes Sir, I did my best to put a little more compassion into this vale of tears" vs "I didn't know what to do, so I did nothing" I Bet I get a better seat at Thanksgiving Dinner than the do nothings.
Now, if you don't believe in God . . . well . . . I have no advice. Just suffer I guess.
"So we might as well do it gracefully. Not be an asshole about. Try to not add to the suffering of others." I'm paraphrasing. Yours actually has more of a sermon cast to it.
You have an excellent outlook Brother Vaughn. ;-)
How are things post hurricane season in Tallahassee?
I assume you believe God exists. If so, why would you assume that he has remained silent? He has allowed us self-rule to prove to us that we weren’t designed for that. We were designed smart, but not for independence. We were misled by a Liar into believing we could handle it (the Liar knew better, but he was and is a narcissist. All he cares about is having subjects.)
So what has God said? A lot. But for brevity’s sake, just read one verse (it’s spoken in past tense, but it obviously hasn’t come true yet, so the scene is after the fact): Revelation 11:18.
This beautiful planet doesn’t belong to us, and He will not let us ruin it. “The meek will inherit the earth.” Only He can make that happen.
Hi, just finding this substack for the first time and, if I may, I'd like to offer a connection. There is a whole community of collapse and post collapse minded people doing real work around the doom outcome. There are groups supporting and studying collapse trauma and grieving, and groups preparing for and building community for a seemingly unlivable future, to name a few. A starting point might be the Deep Adaptation forums. We're all we've got.
You’ve seen me comment enough to probably gather that I came to this conclusion as well. The acceleration is so difficult for us to understand even if our eyes are open to it. Denial will be the best case scenario for most.
To say just because the U.S voted in a f'tard means we are now fucked ignores the last 50 years of deliberate lying, stalling and myths about what EVERY country has been doing to the planet. The U.S. despite universal belief amongst its insane citizens, in NOT the cemtre of the Universe.
Really, because right now the US is at the center of the world power structure. We ARE the "Great Power" of the day, so what we do "kinda" matters to everyone.
For instance, the US has supplied an average of 77 million tons of grain annually to the global market for the last 10 years. That's food for about 1.2 Billion people each year.
One of the triggers for the current US/China war was Trump's threatening to "cut off" China's food supply if he didn't get the trade deal he wanted. His threat to use "food as a weapon of starvation" was the straw that broke Xi's trust in the US as a partner.
The next biggest food exporter is Russia, their 35 million tons feeds about 500 million globally each year.
Then Ukraine, they export 20 million tons and feed about 300 million.
The next five "major" grain exporters combined supply about another 35 million tons to the market yearly.
So, the US has the worlds largest economy, biggest military, controls the global reserve currency, and is a food "superpower".
Trump and his coterie of looters and sociopaths is about to get control of that. This time they know what they're doing and they have a systematic plan.
Timing is everything. This is the WORST possible moment for this to happen.
One of the exhibits is "Man’s Search for Meaning" a 1946 book by Viktor Frankl.
Chronicling his experiences as a prisoner in Nazi concentration camps during World War II, and describing his psycho-therapeutic method, which involved identifying a purpose in life to feel positive about, and then immersively imagining that outcome. The book intends to answer the question “How was everyday life in a concentration camp reflected in the mind of the average prisoner?”
Frankl emphasizes the necessity of being able to find "joy" in even the most horrible of circumstances. Being happy isn't a "sin" it's a NECESSARY part of life.
Be as happy as you can NOW. Savor it. Bank those memories.
Those are the things that can keep you going when others give up in despair.
Perhaps I am simply blasé about nukes having grown up during the Cold War. I actually did "duck and cover" drills as a child in grade school in the early 60's. I lived my whole adult life under the shadow of nuclear war and it NEVER happened.
Me too. At one point in the early 1980's the nuclear risk seemed so high in Europe that I sold my business, bought a ocean going trawler, refitted it as our family home with workshop, generator, about two years supply of fuel and food, and we moved our family (wife, two young kids and dog) on board and went cruising.
The risk faded, but years later various news articles brought forward more information about how damned close both Russia and America had come to pressing buttons. Usually by accident - a flight of migrating geese over Canada that was interpreted as a Russian bomber attack, etc, etc....
Of course nothing like that could happen nowadays......
Yes it did.. but it was the 1960s... womens lib was about no bras seeing who could wear the shortest skirts testing out the pill and Me-too was not yet invented.....Thank god Im a baby boomer and can still remember.
Everyone I’ve known that does the cabin in the woods wants to come back and be near people. Seems community is a central aspect of making life worth living.
I agree, despite being something of a loner all my life I sometimes need people around, even those times I'm not in the mood to interact with them.
There has been a lot of research on ageing and very long life, such as Blue Zones, and the one feature that is common to long lived peoples is that they belong to a close and supportive community, whether a village or a religion or an extended family.
I lived in England back then. Small island, nuclear bases controlled by Americans, many targets, and i knew there wasn't anywhere far enough away from a target to even stand a chance.
And I like living on boats, so it was a no-brainer. I had that boat for over 10 years, but I never did use up all the fuel in the tanks!
You guys make Nukes sound like a bad thing. A simultaneously exploding nuclear war, all at once (well maybe 20 minutes apart cause missiles need time to target) a simultaneous end would be merciful. Have you ever seem someone starve to death? Me either, but I hear it's bad. Quick death! That's my new motto, Quick Death!
As you probably know, Reddit will often host AMA's ("Ask Me Anything"s).
I read your reports and I come away with heartache (a natural reaction)- and many questions. What should I do? How do I justify continuing? As a worker in the US, what collective action can we take?
Would you ever consider hosting your own "AMA" on Substack to respond to what I'm sure are frequent questions on your publishings?
Ignorant, stupid, greedy racists are where I'm from. These are my people. Doesn't mean I agree with them, it means I understand them. Look the FEMA response to thr Hurricanes and disaster in North Carolina. Crumbs for regular Amerivsns in need. But we've got $Billions for slaughter in Ukraine, 1200 people a day killed. We've got $Billions for outright genocide in Gaza, we've got $Billions for illegals taking America over. Then tell them it might get hotter at some future date and all we can do about it is start walking instead of driving. Then tell them to vote for the "Climate party" who will do nothing for you.
Or. You could vote for someone that sees all that, calls it out, and says vote for me I'll clean it up.
Now let's see . . . Who should I vote for? But he's a racist! "Good! Who the fuck cares!"
You realize, I hope, that the pickup drivers have GUNS?
This massive population was ENABLED by fossil-fuel consumption, both must be wound down in tandem. The present environmental problems RESULTED from humans try to remake this planet into their private nest - geoengineering simply carries on with that folly.
In Floida they throw in a gun with every truck purchase. Your choice. .357 magnum Ruger or one of those new fangled Glock plastic thingies. Dem Glocks ain't Merican tho. And besides they fire inferior cartridges.like those foreign 9mm. How un-American can you get when
the guns is in millimeters? Get the Ruger. It looks badass from the business end. You can see the bullet about to enter your brain. I don't even know why they offer them plastic things.
I have lots of problems. The insurance on my new car is $1650 for six months. That's criminal. I only have four speeding tickets and that D. U. I. was a set-uo. They waited for an hour to give me a breathalyzer. Of course eight shooters would kick in by then. I'm discriminated against because I'm White and wealthy and a man. And I was racially profiled for being White. Not fair. And that Field Sobriety Test, I told rhe cop ,"You do it first" cause I knew he couldn't pass his own test. Unfair!
We can't collectively DO ANYTHING, The die is cast already (no pun intended) Now we wait to see how fast it plays out. I thought this thread was for grown up realists. FACE IT, WE ARE DOOMED. Now we should be out having a party. I've it up while you still cab. Disaster is coming to your town. Do prep for it, live in spite of it. Let's get out there and party.
We don't use our real names here. From now on you are "Manfred Dorchester" they are watching us . . . Planing to get us Manfred, you can be sure of it.
Good analysis Richard, thank you. There is nothing I disagree with, and I think the picture by 2035, just 10 years hence, will be both much clearer and drastically different from the mainstream picture today, much along the lines of your higher projections.
My own view is that the problem now is runaway methane emissions, from tundra and permafrost in the short term, and coastal clathrates thereafter. As you say, those are already not in our control and we can only record the numbers as they happen.
I suspect your estimates of the reduction in populations may be too moderate, and that climate change, food shortages, mass migration, wars and border conflicts, increasing diseases and the fall in birth rates, will collapse many populations. If you consider that generally a growth curve is more gentle than a collapse curve, and that the population has risen from 2.4billion to 8 billion in my single lifetime, then I suspect the collapse will be very fast.
Unfortunately the methane situation above means that a collapse in human population may reduce CO2 emissions, but that will no longer much affect climate outcomes that will increasingly be driven by methane.
My one consolation here in Europe is that AMOC collapse seems increasingly imminent and that may cool northern Europe, at least sufficiently to reduce coastal land temperatures. I have in fact positioned myself on that coast 6 years ago on that basis. Of course the differences between higher land temperatures and colder sea temperatures will create the conditions for very violent storms, not dissimilar to the catastrophic Valencia flash flooding a couple of weeks ago. But it was the best I could think of at the time, and I haven't come up with a better plan yet.
Lastly, I note your comments about your involvement in 'special interest' groups, particularly in America. I have assumed that Project 2025 is designed to protect those megarich Americans in Fortress America, with ruthlessness towards the existing population and civilisation, and indeed the rest of the world. Trump's plans to collapse the current economy to cement control of American assets, technology and military will have the incidental effect of collapsing economic activity, and hence CO2 emissions from the World's major producer. That reduction in economic activity will also reduce CO2 emissions from countries that export to America, notably China, and even reduce air travel, etc. However it will leave most Americans in a most desperate and dangerous situation - not a good place to be for the foreseeable future!
Thanks again for your knowledgable and comprehensive analysis. I hope many more people read it and better understand what is about to happen to them.
A very confusing article, Richard. I'm just a simple old physician with a degree in chemistry from Wittenberg, '67, and a professional lifetime in medicine/psychiatry/stress research/addiction medicine. But when I discovered C3S (EU) recently, and read that 1.2 trillion tons of global ice were melting annually, 3.3 billion daily last summer, I started reading everything I could get my hands on about our production of heat energy, the equivalent of 20 Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND (Eliot Jacobson), where one pound of ice absorbs 144 BTUs as it melts. And, recently, I read their June 5, 2024 article "The Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", in which they found "the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023-MaY 2024) IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD, AT 0.75 degC above the 1991-2020 average...". Simple math gives a 0.214 degC annual ave. temp increase for that 3.5 yr. period and may portend a 1 degC increase EVERY FIVE YEARS. So, all of your "moderate" predictions are bogus and a child born today might see a 6 degC world on his/her 23rd BD. Little wonder that PEW Survey found that 47% of Americans 18-50 are choosing NOT to reproduce, ever. C3S, also, reports that 2/3rds of the 220,000 glaciers may melt by 2,100. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 100 yrs. and holds 20 times the heat energy that water vapor holds, even though 1 trillion tons of water vapor are evaporating from the surface daily, but remains only 10-14 days before falling back as record setting rains, floods, etc.
Some old gal in a seminar at Marietta College recently sarcastically called me her "data guy" when I kept interrupting to correct her 20 yo data on the environmental collapse we are well into. I guess that makes me a devotee of hard science, and i can live with that. The administration invited me not to return to the college. I can live with that, too. But, I appreciate your efforts and those of a handful of us truth tellers willing to attempt to tell anyone who'll listen that we have run out of time and our climate is collapsing. Mother Nature and God almighty are about to make a damn fool out of Our newly re-elected Mad King (wannabe) Donald, and there will be a chorus of us yelling "We told you so!". Have a blessed evening, Gregg
Hmmm. maybe the links in my comment may be useful to add to your database ....I firmly suggest you read Unsettled by Koonin and A very convenient warming by Wrightstone. We are faced with extreme scientific perspectives and the more digging makes it even more so.
Thanks for the reply, but I'll stick to the heard science that C3S gives me. You may wish to check it out.
Soft science has been right before. There are thing a we don't know and hard science cannot take them into account.
True….. but its also about data interpretation in this science……… Timescale and trends not just transients… most of the models don’t produce the future trends.. makes you wonder.
Richard, there is much to digest here. As you know, I am hardly on the hopium side of this issue, and always come down hard on the side that we are in the process of exterminating ourselves without radical action. This election has essentially extinguished remaining hope for me, but your predictions for deaths by 2050 I will need to study further. That shocks even me, a person who would be labeled as a crazy by the denial/hopium crowd. As always, I appreciate your work.
Well thought out. I suspect it'll be faster than you lay out here. Once the final cascade failure starts it's possible that the modern world could be over in a few months. That's when most of the urban population will starve as the logistics systems break down. There'll probably be a few islands of sanity around for a while but they'll lose all their technology to entropy over the next few decades.
Joe
Hey Joe!
Good to see you here on the Stack.
Welcome.
I wish the news was better but as you say "cascade failure" has started. So many things are starting to work against us now. This is not unexpected but still, it's kind of awe inspiring in a terrible way.
Did you give up on the wild plant foraging classes?
Afraid I did, I realised to get customers I'd have to create a youtube or insta channel and start making videos about plants and fungi to slowly build a following before I might get together enough people to come to classes, advertising isn't enough. I gave up. I'm not sure we have the time. I've focussed on improving the forest garden I started instead. I left my e mail address in the comments of the first pinned article of your Me if you ever feel like having a conversation outside of comments.
A second more serious question Richard, and I mean this with all due respect and sincerity. As you know my respect for your work is immense.
I find that whenever one of these newsletters appear in my inbox I am immediately thrust into a sort of alarm following by helpless melancholy. My own writing is a response of sorts -trying to make sense of moving forward inspite of this knowledge.
I am now of the mind to not receive your dispatches into my inbox now and just…support your work but ignore and delay reading it unless I’m already in a despondent place.
What do you think is the value of having this knowledge? What is the impact you hope to have on your audience now that the situation is manifest (I mean for godsake we’ve gotten the “tomatoes in November are the front page of collapse stage”. I honestly just scour comments for people debunking you at this point and it’s constantly fruitless.
Thanks, again this is a sincere question not an attempt to denigrate your work.
That's actually worth a whole article and it is something I have thought of. When I started writing these papers I thought of myself as an "educator". You know, fighting disinformation and helping build an informed electorate.
Then, when I saw just HOW BAD things are, I saw myself as a sentinel raising the alarm and rousing people to action. That kept me at it for the last 4 years.
Now that I am reasonably sure what's going to happen is there any point to continuing?
We (the 1% who are paying attention) know what's going on, we know what the reality is, we know the end of the book. What's the point of reading through all stuff in the middle. Hell, put the book down and go out and soak up the "world that is" before it becomes the "world that was".
In the end it comes down to a sense of "knowledge is power". KNOWING what's going on around you immunizes you from disinformation and lies. It protects you from those selling "false hope" and lies. It allows you to SEE reality clearly and make more informed choices.
And hey, I think 20% will still be alive. That's just under a billion people. About 1890 population levels. You could be one of those people or your kids might. What's improving their odds worth to you?
I'm just saying, nothing is for certain. I could be wrong. This is what the numbers look like to me. I constantly hope someone will jump in and explain to me how I am looking at this the wrong way. I HOPE the mainstream science is right but I am telling you that I think it isn't.
Nothing is for certain.
We could be visited by benevolent aliens in 3 years who share fusion technology with us. It's unlikely but unlikely things do happen (see Chicxulub Impact Event). I am telling you what the numbers indicate NOT what will "for sure" happen.
Analyst NOT Oracle, here.
I do hope for an article plumbing the depths of this question. My wife has asked me this very question for at least a decade, "What are you going to do with all that knowledge of how the climate and earth systems are changing? What is the value of knowing all this that makes you so despondent?"
I agree that there is some value to knowing truth from conjecture. The utility of accurately taking 2 or 3 rational steps towards an effect from a known cause. But I admit the philosophic rational is beyond me.
I also have a sense of 2030 being a watershed year. Perhaps only the beginning of a watershed decade? But 2050 will be a different planet, hardly even imaginable even to sci-fi fans. The die off will be rapid, grotesque and widespread. Managing, avoiding or ignoring the mountains of dead bodies will be a full time occupation for all those not criminally and barbarically exploiting the circumstance for their own benefit.
Why so glum? We gotta die anyway. Listen, this is your opportunity to get right with God. We are all about to meet Him. Sooner or later. You want to fo that unprepared? I want to say "Yes Sir, I did my best to put a little more compassion into this vale of tears" vs "I didn't know what to do, so I did nothing" I Bet I get a better seat at Thanksgiving Dinner than the do nothings.
Now, if you don't believe in God . . . well . . . I have no advice. Just suffer I guess.
"We gotta die anyway".
"So we might as well do it gracefully. Not be an asshole about. Try to not add to the suffering of others." I'm paraphrasing. Yours actually has more of a sermon cast to it.
You have an excellent outlook Brother Vaughn. ;-)
How are things post hurricane season in Tallahassee?
I assume you believe God exists. If so, why would you assume that he has remained silent? He has allowed us self-rule to prove to us that we weren’t designed for that. We were designed smart, but not for independence. We were misled by a Liar into believing we could handle it (the Liar knew better, but he was and is a narcissist. All he cares about is having subjects.)
So what has God said? A lot. But for brevity’s sake, just read one verse (it’s spoken in past tense, but it obviously hasn’t come true yet, so the scene is after the fact): Revelation 11:18.
This beautiful planet doesn’t belong to us, and He will not let us ruin it. “The meek will inherit the earth.” Only He can make that happen.
Uh recovering Catholic here (read: Atheist), suffering happens to believrs too. Religion doesn't shield one from reality.
Hi, just finding this substack for the first time and, if I may, I'd like to offer a connection. There is a whole community of collapse and post collapse minded people doing real work around the doom outcome. There are groups supporting and studying collapse trauma and grieving, and groups preparing for and building community for a seemingly unlivable future, to name a few. A starting point might be the Deep Adaptation forums. We're all we've got.
You’ve seen me comment enough to probably gather that I came to this conclusion as well. The acceleration is so difficult for us to understand even if our eyes are open to it. Denial will be the best case scenario for most.
To say just because the U.S voted in a f'tard means we are now fucked ignores the last 50 years of deliberate lying, stalling and myths about what EVERY country has been doing to the planet. The U.S. despite universal belief amongst its insane citizens, in NOT the cemtre of the Universe.
Really, because right now the US is at the center of the world power structure. We ARE the "Great Power" of the day, so what we do "kinda" matters to everyone.
For instance, the US has supplied an average of 77 million tons of grain annually to the global market for the last 10 years. That's food for about 1.2 Billion people each year.
One of the triggers for the current US/China war was Trump's threatening to "cut off" China's food supply if he didn't get the trade deal he wanted. His threat to use "food as a weapon of starvation" was the straw that broke Xi's trust in the US as a partner.
The next biggest food exporter is Russia, their 35 million tons feeds about 500 million globally each year.
Then Ukraine, they export 20 million tons and feed about 300 million.
The next five "major" grain exporters combined supply about another 35 million tons to the market yearly.
So, the US has the worlds largest economy, biggest military, controls the global reserve currency, and is a food "superpower".
Trump and his coterie of looters and sociopaths is about to get control of that. This time they know what they're doing and they have a systematic plan.
Timing is everything. This is the WORST possible moment for this to happen.
Here in Australia, there are plenty of newspaper articles and online forum discussions about what a Trump victory means for us.
Exactly. One guy didn't get us here.
“Pushing through the market square
So many mothers sighing”
I start many days with this song. Just to make sure i do not get too happy. Sadly, at this point, i feel that happiness disrespects the future.
Have you read my piece, "Exhibits in an Atrocity Museum : A place for things that, "should never be forgotten". https://richardcrim.substack.com/p/exhibits-in-an-atrocity-museum
One of the exhibits is "Man’s Search for Meaning" a 1946 book by Viktor Frankl.
Chronicling his experiences as a prisoner in Nazi concentration camps during World War II, and describing his psycho-therapeutic method, which involved identifying a purpose in life to feel positive about, and then immersively imagining that outcome. The book intends to answer the question “How was everyday life in a concentration camp reflected in the mind of the average prisoner?”
Frankl emphasizes the necessity of being able to find "joy" in even the most horrible of circumstances. Being happy isn't a "sin" it's a NECESSARY part of life.
Be as happy as you can NOW. Savor it. Bank those memories.
Those are the things that can keep you going when others give up in despair.
Thank you Richard!
I don’t see how even just a 10% reduction in global population doesn’t entail nuclear war and this extinction.
If you’re right, countries will use nukes and everything will be over even faster than you’ve laid out.
That is the "wildcard" isn't it?
Perhaps I am simply blasé about nukes having grown up during the Cold War. I actually did "duck and cover" drills as a child in grade school in the early 60's. I lived my whole adult life under the shadow of nuclear war and it NEVER happened.
Me too. At one point in the early 1980's the nuclear risk seemed so high in Europe that I sold my business, bought a ocean going trawler, refitted it as our family home with workshop, generator, about two years supply of fuel and food, and we moved our family (wife, two young kids and dog) on board and went cruising.
The risk faded, but years later various news articles brought forward more information about how damned close both Russia and America had come to pressing buttons. Usually by accident - a flight of migrating geese over Canada that was interpreted as a Russian bomber attack, etc, etc....
Of course nothing like that could happen nowadays......
🤔
Wow, that's SERIOUS prepping. I went with the "remote cabin in the woods" option in the 80's. It got OLD really fast.
Us engineers went to ban the bomb marches with the woman teachers schools but the goal was the party after to get laid. :-)
And did it work? Just wondering for the future marches......
😬
Yes it did.. but it was the 1960s... womens lib was about no bras seeing who could wear the shortest skirts testing out the pill and Me-too was not yet invented.....Thank god Im a baby boomer and can still remember.
Everyone I’ve known that does the cabin in the woods wants to come back and be near people. Seems community is a central aspect of making life worth living.
I agree, despite being something of a loner all my life I sometimes need people around, even those times I'm not in the mood to interact with them.
There has been a lot of research on ageing and very long life, such as Blue Zones, and the one feature that is common to long lived peoples is that they belong to a close and supportive community, whether a village or a religion or an extended family.
Which means I'm stuffed! Any moment now...... 🙂
I lived in England back then. Small island, nuclear bases controlled by Americans, many targets, and i knew there wasn't anywhere far enough away from a target to even stand a chance.
And I like living on boats, so it was a no-brainer. I had that boat for over 10 years, but I never did use up all the fuel in the tanks!
You guys make Nukes sound like a bad thing. A simultaneously exploding nuclear war, all at once (well maybe 20 minutes apart cause missiles need time to target) a simultaneous end would be merciful. Have you ever seem someone starve to death? Me either, but I hear it's bad. Quick death! That's my new motto, Quick Death!
Well, I'm sure we can find someone to help you with that......
Thank you for your kind offer. Do you have any blue pills left? They're the 10mg Valiums. Send me 100 would you? I promise to take them.
Sorry, I used them all up last week.......
Thy this;
https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/valium-diazepam-10-mg-tablet-2852900833888.html
One $ is about 8 Rupees,, so you may find it surprisingly cheap compared to American prices!
Orbital Kinetic Energy Weapons.
Way cleaner than nukes in terms of fallout (there is none).
If engineers stopped building bridges because one fell down or aircraft because one crashed......... ?????
What atr you yelling about? We will never stop, so don't worry about it
Thats ok then
Hi Richard,
As you probably know, Reddit will often host AMA's ("Ask Me Anything"s).
I read your reports and I come away with heartache (a natural reaction)- and many questions. What should I do? How do I justify continuing? As a worker in the US, what collective action can we take?
Would you ever consider hosting your own "AMA" on Substack to respond to what I'm sure are frequent questions on your publishings?
Thanks for your time and work.
Interesting idea. I will consider it.
Thanks.
Ignorant, stupid, greedy racists are where I'm from. These are my people. Doesn't mean I agree with them, it means I understand them. Look the FEMA response to thr Hurricanes and disaster in North Carolina. Crumbs for regular Amerivsns in need. But we've got $Billions for slaughter in Ukraine, 1200 people a day killed. We've got $Billions for outright genocide in Gaza, we've got $Billions for illegals taking America over. Then tell them it might get hotter at some future date and all we can do about it is start walking instead of driving. Then tell them to vote for the "Climate party" who will do nothing for you.
Or. You could vote for someone that sees all that, calls it out, and says vote for me I'll clean it up.
Now let's see . . . Who should I vote for? But he's a racist! "Good! Who the fuck cares!"
I grew up among them and they are my people as well. I know them inside and out. You don't have to agree with someone to understand them.
What you are saying is true. That's pretty much the way that the 2/3rds of White America that votes Trumpublican saw the situation.
All exactly right & on point as usual.
The only way to "crash" CO2 emissions is to make the private sale of hydrocarbons illegal.
https://thespouter.substack.com/p/petromarxismpetrocommunism-overview
You realize, I hope, that the pickup drivers have GUNS?
This massive population was ENABLED by fossil-fuel consumption, both must be wound down in tandem. The present environmental problems RESULTED from humans try to remake this planet into their private nest - geoengineering simply carries on with that folly.
In Floida they throw in a gun with every truck purchase. Your choice. .357 magnum Ruger or one of those new fangled Glock plastic thingies. Dem Glocks ain't Merican tho. And besides they fire inferior cartridges.like those foreign 9mm. How un-American can you get when
the guns is in millimeters? Get the Ruger. It looks badass from the business end. You can see the bullet about to enter your brain. I don't even know why they offer them plastic things.
I have lots of problems. The insurance on my new car is $1650 for six months. That's criminal. I only have four speeding tickets and that D. U. I. was a set-uo. They waited for an hour to give me a breathalyzer. Of course eight shooters would kick in by then. I'm discriminated against because I'm White and wealthy and a man. And I was racially profiled for being White. Not fair. And that Field Sobriety Test, I told rhe cop ,"You do it first" cause I knew he couldn't pass his own test. Unfair!
We can't collectively DO ANYTHING, The die is cast already (no pun intended) Now we wait to see how fast it plays out. I thought this thread was for grown up realists. FACE IT, WE ARE DOOMED. Now we should be out having a party. I've it up while you still cab. Disaster is coming to your town. Do prep for it, live in spite of it. Let's get out there and party.
Comaaaaaaahhm Richatd, you blocked me from commenting?
I don't think so. Are you having a problem?
Yet another frightening report on our future. The end of the world as we know it.
Hey Michael, good to see you here!
It's good to be here.
We don't use our real names here. From now on you are "Manfred Dorchester" they are watching us . . . Planing to get us Manfred, you can be sure of it.