The Crisis Report - 96

“What a diff’rence a day made”.

This is how much warmer or colder these waters are than the 1991–2020 average for this day. Look at how HOT the Great Lakes are and the southern half of Hudson Bay. Look at how hot the Baltic Sea is and the Arctic Ocean waters above Siberia. See how much HEAT there is in the Indian Ocean and the Eastern Pacific.

“Twenty-four little hours” — Dinah Washington 1959

We came to a fork in the road and voted on which track to follow. Although few know it, the majority voted for COLLAPSE.

“In War, timing is everything”. — Napoleon

This was the WORST possible moment for the IGNORANT and GREEDY to start leading the STUPID and BLIND. They don't see it yet, but they killed us all.

To paraphrase Churchill, “This is not the end of the Beginning, this is the Beginning of the END.”

Churchill also said, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else.” It looks like he was optimistic.

It’s time to confront some HARD realities. It's TIME to decide what your “Plan B” is going to be. Last week's election means HUMANITY is FUCKED.

We are going to have a FAST COLLAPSE.

By 2050, I think the global population will be under 1 Billion.

By 2050 the Global Mean Surface Temperature will be between +3°C and +4°C over the baseline. Global agricultural outputs are expected to decline about -60% over the current levels at that level of warming. I project an additional -20% to 30% dieback from the breakdown of civilization and endemic warfare.

Here's the short version of how that happens.

2024 has been HOTTER than 2023 and the Rate of Warming has ACCELERATED. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (data)

Here are Berkeley Earth’s numbers. They are Climate Moderates so their spin on the numbers is always “cautious optimism”. However, Zeke Hausfather is an “honest” Moderate and he reports the numbers accurately. His interpretation of the numbers is strictly “Mainstream Orthodox” but his numbers are good.

The Rate of Warming (RoW) has accelerated as CO2 levels have increased. The CO2 level controls both the RoW and the Total Amount of Warming. The world is warming up faster than ever now, about +0.36°C per DECADE! That's an additional +1.08°C of warming by 2055 or about +2.7°C over baseline AT A MINIMUM.

We didn't discuss this during the election. “Climate Change” got put to the side because 2/3rds of White America doesn't believe it will affect them anytime soon or that it's a “hoax” created by Liberals who want to “tell them what they can and cannot do”.

We didn’t discuss the CLIMATE CRISIS that's sweeping over our world like a rising tide during the election. Because the party of “Science, Sanity, and Reason” knew, that if they brought the topic up, it would turn White voters against them.

Instead we had an election about “the economy” and White America’s “resentments”. Here's a MAGA headline about the election.

GO WOKE GO BROKE: The Ultimate DEI Hire Is Out of a Job, Despite Spending More to Win — November 9th.

It’s a bright new day in America because the straight white male who promised real change prevails over the woke DEI hire who represented the status quo, of which Americans are rightly sick and tired.

One essential element of the Left’s early excitement for Harris and her ultimate failure is the fact that the vice president was the ultimate DEI hire.

Policies aimed at expanding diversity, equity, and inclusion often backfire, as Americans suspect that the normal rules for college acceptance, job hiring, or promotion may not be applied to candidates from favored groups. This suspicion leads to the term “DEI hire,” a phrase to suggest that someone gained his or her position in life not due to merit and achievement alone, but because his or her gender, skin color, sexual orientation, or gender identity checked a box someone else was trying to fill.

Regardless of her other merits and qualifications, Harris would not have been the nominee if it weren’t for her sex and her skin color.

Americans dislike “DEI hires” because they think these people cut corners. Regardless of whether the “DEI hire” truly deserves a college admission, a job, or a promotion, others wonder whether the real reason is merely skin deep.

Trump’s previous experience as president, the people’s desire for real change, and the overwhelming sense that Harris was fake as all get-out prevailed over the DEI hire. Let’s hope the elites get the message.

— — — — — —

Yeah, this is not going to go well. Putting IGNORANT, RACIST, STUPID, GREEDY RESENTFUL people in charge usually ends in disaster.

There is probably less time than you think.

From Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations — (16 May 2024) James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato.

THE SHORT VERSION.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) has been above +1.5°C for 18 months now and shows no sign of dropping below that level.

We have breached the “sustained +1.5°C” threshold.

The Rate of Warming is now estimated as +0.27°C/decade (Moderates) up to +0.37°C/decade (Alarmists).

The GREEN line is the +0.18°C RoW between 1975 to about 2015. The RED line is the +0.27°C/decade RoW since then. The YELLOW cone represents future warming. The bottom line is the Moderate estimate. The top line is the Alarmist estimate of the RoW as +0.36°C/decade.

In 2023 the fires in the Boreal Forests released as much CO2 as the 4th largest polluter in the world, or as much as the global aviation industry.

A wildfire map from July 2023. Our planet is BURNING and it isn’t going to stop. The World’s Forests are Burning, Ecosystem Turnover is the Cause. Let’s All be Really Clear on What that Means. — Revisited

Those same forests, due to heat stress and wildfire smoke, did not take in CO2. Across the world the Terrestrial Carbon Sinks that absorb about 25% to 35% of our annual emissions failed in 2023.

Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.1244

ABSTRACT:

In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%.

This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened.

Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets.

Regional flux anomalies from 2015–2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the:

Largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (+0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1)

Extreme fire emissions of +0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada

A loss in South-East Asia (+0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1).

Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20°N has declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023.

Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015–16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020–2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (+0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1).

The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina’s retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later.

Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 lost approximately +1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change.

Burning forests don't absorb CO2 and they ADD to the atmospheric load. It turns out that trees also don’t like wildfire smoke. Trees exposed to smoke STOPPED absorbing CO2 in 2023.

That increased the atmospheric CO2 load by about a extra +9.5Gt in 2023. Resulting in a +86% jump in the year over year increase in CO2 levels. The CO2 increase in 2023 was over +3ppm for the first time, EVER.

CO2 growth rate from 2010 to 2023 from different approaches. Growth rates are derived from marine boundary layer surface stations (MBL, blue bars), the Mauna Loa station (MLO, dark blue squares), assimilation of global OCO-2 satellite observations of column CO2 concentration measurements (brown dots), and a bottom-up approach where atmospheric measurements are excluded. The bottom-up approach predicts growth rates from the difference between fossil fuel CO2 emissions and the sum of the land sink from three DGVM models and the ocean sink from ocean model emulators (red dots).

2024 has been hotter than 2023.

Global wildfire news got pushed to the background because of the election BUT 2024 has been a BAD year for the Global Forests.

Tipping Points have been “tipped”

During 2020–2022, the observed CH4 growth rate reached a record high since NOAA measurements began in 1983, averaging 15.4 ± 0.6 ppb yr−1

Trend of globally averaged CH4 abundance (in gray) and δ13CCH4 (purple) from the NOAA/GML GGGRN. Methane (CH4) levels are increasing BUT the PERCENTAGE of that CH4 from fossil fuel sources has DROPPED. That means the permafrost has started producing CH4 in a BIG WAY.

Rapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests microbial emissions drove record high atmospheric methane growth in 2020–2022. — October 2024

ABSTRACT:

The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr−1 between 2020 and 2022, but the mechanisms driving the accelerated CH4 growth have so far been unclear.

In this work, we use measurements of the 13C:12C ratio of CH4 (expressed as δ13CCH4) from NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and a box model to investigate potential drivers for the rapid CH4 growth.

These measurements show that the record-high CH4 growth in 2020–2022 was accompanied by a sharp decline in δ13CCH4, indicating that the increase in CH4 abundance was mainly driven by increased emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture. We use our box model to reject increasing fossil fuel emissions or decreasing hydroxyl radical sink as the dominant driver for increasing global methane abundance.

*THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT HUMAN PRODUCTION OF CH4 HAS DROPPED.*

From the paper:

Our best-fit result of the MICR simulation (SI Appendix) required an increase of microbial emissions over the steady state mean by 14 Tg yr−1 in 2008 with a concurrent increase in fossil emissions of 10 Tg yr−1; then in 2014, the microbial emissions increased by an additional 22 Tg yr−1, and fossil emissions increased by 3 Tg yr−1. These results are consistent with previous inverse modeling studies (8, 11, 12) that suggested approximately 85% of CH4 growth during 2007–2020 was due to increased microbial emissions.

In 2008 fossil CH4 emissions increased about +10Tg (Terragrams) per year.

Natural CH4 emissions increased about +14Tg per year.

In 2014 fossil CH4 emissions increased about +3Tg/year.

Natural CH4 emissions increased about +22Tg/year.

85% of CH4 growth during 2007–2020 was due to increased microbial emissions.

This is BEYOND mere BAD. This is CATASTROPHIC.

IT MEANS WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY CONTROL OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

Just like everyone, except the Climate Deniers, thought. These are CH4 releases.

Mysterious craters exploded in Siberia's permafrost. Scientists say they now know why | CNN

A decade ago, a mysterious crater appeared in the Russian Arctic, forming a huge jagged hole hundreds of feet wide…

CH4 is 80 TIMES more potent than CO2 as a warming agent.

A “spike” in CH4 levels could cause warming to RAPIDLY ACCELERATE far past the +0.27°C/decade of the Moderates, or even the +0.36°C/decade of the Alarmists. A SPIKE in CH4 levels could mean warming of +0.1°C PER YEAR for a period of 10 to 20 years.

All we can do now is “estimate” the combined effect of CO2 and CH4 into a CO2(e) value.

James Hansen puts the CO2(e) value at about 525ppm CO2 equivalent. That’s getting into the +5°C to +6°C range of warming.

IF YOU BELIEVE THE ALARMISTS.

Mainstream, Moderate Climate Science does not.

Figure showing the extracted periods of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming levels in the transient (black) and net-zero emission (yellow to red) simulations. GWLs are extracted as all years within decades of a global average temperature of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C ±0.2 °C in the transient simulations and net-zero emission simulations where the climate is stabilising. Extracted decades are shown in bold. An 1850–1900 baseline is used as a proxy for a pre-industrial climate. Only one transient case is shown here for illustrative purposes, but all 40 concentration-driven SSP5–8.5 ensemble members are used. The net-zero emission simulations begin in 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, and 2060

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 — October 30th, 2024

This is what MAINSTREAM Climate Science thinks is going to happen. This is “the science” being used at COP29, which started today.

Global warming level projections. Maps of annual local temperature change relative to the global average for (a) SSP5–8.5 in 2030–2069, (b) all net-zero simulations 200–399 years after emission cessation, and © all net-zero simulations 800–999 years after emission cessation. Maps of the difference between the patterns of warming in (d) all net-zero simulations 200–399 years after emission cessation relative to SSP5–8.5 in 2030–2069 and (e) all net-zero simulations 800–999 years after emission cessation relative to SSP5–8.5 in 2030–2069.

This is what the BEST General Climate Models in existence say will happen over the next 1,000 years according to the Mainstream Moderates in Climate Science. They assume a “worst case” rise in CO2 levels (RCP-8.5 is worst case) with NET ZERO being hit at different dates between 2030 and 2069.

This paper is WILDLY OPTIMISTIC. Which shows you how distorted the General Climate Models of the Moderates in Climate Science are.

From the paper, page 10:

“The seven 1000-year-long simulations exhibit very slow changes in global mean temperature such that they are suitable for use in examining the effects of climate stabilisation and differences with transient warming (Fig. 1d). After the initial change in the first few decades of the simulations, due to the large decrease in methane concentrations, GMST slowly increases over the remainder of these simulations at a rate of around 0.03–0.05 °C per century (Fig. 1d). This is about 1/40 of the rate of observed global warming over the last 30 years. The lack of long-term global cooling despite reduced atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Fig. 1c) is primarily due to slow ocean processes (Armour et al., 2016; MacDougall et al., 2022).”

Breakdown:

“The seven 1000-year-long simulations exhibit very slow changes in global mean temperature such that they are suitable for use in examining the effects of climate stabilisation and differences with transient warming (Fig. 1d).”

You REALLY have to look at Figure 1d to understand what they are saying here. The text for the graph states:

Figure 1d.

“(d) global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomalies, relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, in the ACCESS-ESM1–5 historical and SSP5–8.5 simulations (black) and the net-zero greenhouse gas emission simulations (grading from yellow to red for later emission cessation). The net-zero emission simulations begin in 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, and 2060. The global warming levels for the last 30 years of each net-zero emission simulation are shown in panel (d)”

What you see when you look at the graph is a BLACK line, over on the left, that around the year 2000 goes EXPONENTIAL and results in around +5°C by 2100. That’s the Business As Usual or RCP8.5 simulation.

The BLACK line of +5°C by 2100 is what happens if we “do nothing”.

The seven 1000 year long simulations are what happens if we hit Net-Zero at different dates. They estimate what “peak warming” will be hundreds of years in the future based on that. The seven dates for hitting Net-Zero and the resulting GMST “peaks” about 900 years in the future are:

2030 = +1.6°C of warming in the 2900's.

2035 = +1.8°C of warming in the 2900's.

2040 = +2.1°C of warming in the 2900's.

2045 = +2.4°C of warming in the 2900's.

2050 = +2.6°C of warming in the 2900's.

2055 = +3.0°C of warming in the 2900's.

2060 = +3.3°C of warming in the 2900's.

SO.

Going back to the original sentence.

“The seven 1000-year-long simulations exhibit very slow changes in global mean temperature such that they are suitable for use in examining the effects of climate stabilisation and differences with transient warming (Fig. 1d).”

Those are the 1000 year simulations that were run. They ALL exhibit “very slow changes in global mean temperature” over that timeframe.

How slow?

“After the initial change in the first few decades of the simulations, due to the large decrease in methane concentrations, GMST slowly increases over the remainder of these simulations at a rate of around 0.03–0.05 °C per century (Fig. 1d)”

VERY SLOW considering that “normal” interglacial warming for the last 800k years has been at a rate of about +0.1°C per century.

“This is about 1/40 of the rate of observed global warming over the last 30 years.”

So, they are saying that when we get to “Net Zero” . Warming will basically “slow down” to about 1/40th of the current rate. Although warming will then continue for another 900+ years.

“due to slow ocean processes (Armour et al., 2016; MacDougall et al., 2022)”

IE. The slow release of HEAT built up in the oceans.

This paper is “mainstream” Climate Science’s paradigm about how the Climate System works. Contrast it with James Hansen’s and the Alarmists paper on the next 1,000 years.

Global warming in the pipeline. (2023)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

Which states:

“Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is +10°C, which is reduced to +8°C by today’s human-made aerosols.”

“Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions could prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring.”

“However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade.”

“Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed +1.5°C in the 2020s and +2°C before 2050.”

The Mainstream Moderates don’t think we will hit +2.1°C for +900 years. IF, we get to Net-Zero by 2040. That’s the delusional “science” we are using now. That’s what SCIENCE is telling World Leaders, the Financial Elites, the Public, and the Media.

That/s THE REASON that we aren’t aggressively “doing anything” about the Climate Crisis. The SCIENCE is telling us that we still have DECADES to get to Net-Zero. Once we get there, the SCIENCE says that future warming will slow down to 1/40th of the current rate, basically down to nothing.

It will be BAD if we wait to 2055 to get there. That will “lock in” warming up to +3.0°C around 2900CE. But, if we can get to Net-Zero by 2045, then warming should only be around +2.0°C by 2100.

The Climate Optimists want to assure you that the rapid rollout and adoption of “renewables” indicates that “We Can Do It”. We can BUY/Build our way out of this.

Net-Zero by 2045 with +2.0°C of warming by 2900, or +2.0C of warming BEFORE 2050, or +2.0°C of warming by 2035. Those are your choices for what might happen in the FUTURE. Those are the forecasts.

Only one of them is “mainstream” and we are now acting as if that forecast is 100% certain. Everyone is literally betting their lives that the Moderates in Climate Science, the one’s who have gotten everything WRONG so far, are correct about this.

Another year, another COP. This one is tense because the Global 80% want $1T per year from the Developed (White) 20%. They are scared by the increase in Climate Disasters and they are getting REALLY ANGRY at the US for making things worse.

That’s the HOPE anyway. Because this election makes it VERY CLEAR that the US will DO NOTHING about the Climate Crisis. If anything is going to be done it will have to be by the Chinese.

Remember Trump staring at the Sun during the eclipse in 2017. White America thinks this guy is better than a hyper competent Black Woman.

Trump has promised to increase U.S. fossil-fuel production and to weaken federal rules that limit the emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases. Trump has also said he will once again remove the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, under which countries agreed to try to limit warming to under +1.5°C and “well under” +2°C (+3.6°F).

The US has declared “FUCK YOU WORLD”. We are White and we don’t CARE how many of you DIE. We will “Build a Wall” and keep you out.

We're American Assholes, we don't have to care. The rest of you have to do what we say cause, WE’RE #1 AGAIN.

Over the past four years, the Biden-Harris administration took the most action to address the climate crisis of any U.S. presidential administration to date. Primarily through enacting the Inflation Reduction Act.

The continuation of funding for renewable energy and other climate-related provisions in that and other laws is now up in the air.

The IRA was “too little, too late” but at least it was something. It got the bridge in Baltimore fixed quickly enough to minimize economic disruption. It got one of the CRITICAL bridges over the Mississippi in Mitch McConnell’s home state repaired and strengthened. Money was spent on improvements to dams, so that they don’t fail if we get a storm that dumps a year’s worth of rain in a single day.

DO YOU REALLY THINK THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO DO THE SAME?

The guy who’s idea of “federal assistance” is throwing rolls of paper towels into a crowd of people who lost everything in a hurricane.

We are in the ENDGAME now.

I want to be REALLY CLEAR about this. It’s TOO LATE to do anything about the Climate Crisis without attempting GEOENGINEERING the Climate System. Probably using SOx aerosols to increase the planetary ALBEDO to reflect more sunlight away from the planet.

Simplistic but this is the basic idea. Put SOx aerosols in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight away from the Earth.

James Hansen, and the team of climate scientists who work with him, are calling for a HUGE build out of nuclear power plants AND a global program to “turn the sky WHITE” with sulfate particulates. In conjunction with a CRASH effort to slash Global CO2 emissions as quickly as possible.

Like the author describes in this book.

By their reckoning, “It’s the ONLY plan that has a chance of working and preserving our civilization.”

Anything short of that, “is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic while we wait for the ship to go down”.

It’s TIME to decide what your “Plan B” is going to be. Start thinking in terms of COLLAPSE by 2050 now.

I used to think Collapse would be gradual and play out over the rest of the century. That it would be a “managed retreat” against a steadily worsening set of problems. Something that might unify the world and pull us together. Something that might finally force us to “grow up” and act like adults instead of spoiled children.

Last weeks election means we are effectively going to do nothing to SLOW the Climate Disaster down. It probably means +4°C by 2050 and a -80% decline in agricultural outputs.

Collapse is going to play out now over the next 25 years.

By 2050 the human population is likely to be less than 20% of current levels and most of civilization will probably be gone. We are about to start our DESCENT into RAPID INTENSE COLLAPSE.

Enjoy today’s bounty.

After 2030, unless you are wealthy, you are likely to spend the rest of your life being slightly hungry.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

— rc 111124

Personal Notes:

I know this will seem like an EXTREME position to take. Particularly if you have only been listening to mainstream news or following mainstream Climate Science. Sadly that’s ALL about 99% of the global population has heard or is aware of.

People who think they are “informed” about Climate Change usually mean that they know what the Mainstream Moderate faction of Climate Science is saying. Generally, for a field of scientific study, that’s all you need to know.

Things move slowly in SCIENCE, paradigm shifts that overthrow the old way of SEEING are fairly rare. They are often “generational” as the “Old Guard” that dominates a field has to literally die before a new paradigm can replace the old.

We got the science around the Climate System WRONG in the 70’s and America built its ENERGY policy around Fossil Fuels instead of nuclear power.

Paragraph 2 was prophetic.

We told ourselves that if fossil fuels proved to be “dangerous” we would DEFINITELY SWITCH to non-polluting energy sources. Assuming that we had at least 100 years before it became a problem.

We have been lying to ourselves for 45 years.

The bill is about to come due.

45 years of inaction means that our DESCENT is going to be FAST, BRUTAL, and HUNGRY. Billions of people are going to have their lives shortened and die in the next 30 years.

I am active on a LOT of private (invitation only) chat groups.

I know analysts (many in government employ) who think that this “dieback” can be managed and “contained”.

They talk about a “reset” back to 1880’s levels of population but with 21st century science. They think that a “Fortress America” can “ride it out” and secure its borders while the rest of the world starves and burns.

They foresee the back half of the century as an “opportunity” to build a “New World”. One in which a resurgent US “picks up the pieces” of a shattered broken world and creates a truly unified world centered on American leadership.

While the public show is still “things are under control, don’t worry about the Climate Crisis” and people like Gavin Schmidt say that the Climate System is NOT “spiraling out of control”.

The private discussions I haunt are increasingly assuming that a HUGE DIEBACK is inevitable.

These are the LAST years of the Old World of the 20th Century. They are the transition period into the New World of Collapse. Think about what you want to do with time.

In 25 years 80% of us will be gone.

Believe me or don’t.

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If you are new to my stuff I maintain an index of my past articles here on Medium. A Mind at Work A catalogue of Articles I’ve Written.

I also keep an index of my articles here. SubStack Index : A Guide to my Stack.