28 Comments
Jun 3Liked by Richard Crim

We really appreciate all this great analysis from you Richard, thank you very much.

> "Do you think it has ANYTHING to do with the prospect of 41 MILLION “Climate Refugees” showing up at our borders?"

All the Bitcoin Bros moving to El Salvador have NO IDEA what's coming our way. Many of them are climate change deniers/skeptics/contrarians, which makes sense when you consider that many of them tend to be libertarians.

Honestly, I know it's morbid to say but many of us now are coming to the realisation that the only thing that will prevent (or at least minimise) the climate change induced decimation of global ecosystems and biodiversity (i.e. the sixth mass extinction event) is a human depopulation event. Some potential candidates:

- SARS-CoV-2 de-attenuates and reverts to high virulence. This is what a minority of virologists/immunologists (most notably Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche) are predicting

- H5N1 avian influenza jumps into our species. This virus is resistant to vaccines and tends to be extremely neuro-virulent (it enters the eyes and goes straight to the brain), rendering masks ineffective

- Thermonuclear World War III between NATO and Russia/China/Iran

- Global sovereign debt crisis which would be MUCH WORSE than the 2007/8 sub-prime/Global Financial Crisis

- Massive geomagnetic storms (similar in magnitude to the Carrington Event of September 1859) caused by a major coronal mass ejection from the sun, triggering extended mass power outages

Expand full comment
author
Jun 4·edited Jun 4Author

I have written several times that the gene editing tools available make it A CERTAINTY that there will be 2-4 attempts at triggering a global pandemic for "rapid depopulation".

Something like in "Twelve Monkeys".

Given the circumstances and the technology I see it as inevitable that it will be attempted.

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

Richard, I don't currently have a Medium account so I am unable to access your articles discussing COVID, did you write any articles discussing the origins of SARS-CoV-2?

This article was published yesterday in The New York Times, written by a professor at Harvard and MIT (which interestingly coincided with Anthony Fauci testifying in front of Congress):

Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html

Did you ever do a deep dive into the work of Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric, Shi Zhengli and Anthony Fauci, in order to determine whether to believe the proponents of the "zoonotic origins" theory, or the "lab-leak" theory?

Expand full comment
author

I wrote about Covid heavily during 2020. Here are open access links to some of my articles.

This is Going to be Bad - March 2020

https://smokingtyger.medium.com/this-is-going-to-be-bad-7ea7768554f0?sk=939c9b43472c4daf36131f3e0db80c9e

This is Going to be Bad Ep. 08 - July 2020

We have reached the end of the Beginning. A Review of what we know.

https://smokingtyger.medium.com/this-is-going-to-be-bad-ep-08-8e4cf9ffc2e4?sk=e1c8e62140a7458b46c1efd3bb89e064

Where I write.

"We are now six months into the Covid-19 pandemic. I first noticed it last December as a small story about a new virus showing up in a market in Wuhan in http://outbreaknewstoday.com/. My wife and I started paying attention to what was happening in China in January, although we didn’t get seriously worried until they started taking temperature readings of travelers from China at SFO airport in late January. For us, that was the tripwire indicating Covid-19 was SERIOUS and we started preparing."

Lastly, and closest to answering your question, is this piece I did in April 2022.

On Politics, War by Other Means — 06

“Grooming” is real. Trumpublican voters are being groomed to believe that the coming Climate Shock is “natural”.

https://smokingtyger.medium.com/on-politics-war-by-other-means-06-d9865eecc178?sk=c6e8731318fee812f60d57099038c98f

Which doesn't sound like it's about Covid, but talks about it extensively. Here's what I wrote that I think you are interested in.

"when the pandemic started, Covid was all that I wrote about.

As an analyst I thought I did pretty well. In my sixth month report on the virus in July 2020 (We have reached the end of the Beginning - A Review of what we know), I only got one thing wrong. I was adamant that there wasn’t going to be a vaccine that year.

I didn’t know that there was a large pre-existing body of research on a vaccine for a SARS virus. I had forgotten about the first SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2003–2004.

It’s easy to forget about that one because it was contained. Globally, only 8,096 people got infected. It was a blip on most people’s radar.

If you were an epidemiologist, it was a screaming red alert. Because the Infection Mortality Rate (IMR) was 9.5%. Of the 8,096 who got infected, 774 died.

By comparison, the IMR for SARS-CoV-2, or Covid-19, is just over 1%.

So, when SARS happened it got a lot of attention. No one in their right mind wants to see a pandemic like Covid, but with a 10% mortality rate. So, there was money put into vaccine research.

Not a lot. Tiny amounts. The amounts that fund small research projects, in the small number of places capable of doing vaccine research on a virus as dangerous as SARS-CoV-1. The small steady amounts that drive government funded research yet have great power. Because, over time, they add up and produce results.

About 80% of the research needed to produce the Covid vaccine had already been done when the pandemic hit.

They did this basic “not for profit” research so that we would be ready if another round of SARS showed up. Because the next version might be even more lethal.

We dodged a bullet the first time. They wanted to be sure that the next time a SARS virus came around, we were ready.

They were right to be concerned,

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 at the origin of COVID-19 shares more than 70% genetic similarity with SARS-CoV-1 that was at the origin of 2003 SARS. Basically all of the research done on the first SARS virus was applicable to the new SARS virus.

If you were wondering how “Project Warp Speed” literally produced a miracle vaccine for Covid in less than one year. That’s how.

Trump knew it.

In the first year of the pandemic I got hyper focused on the political signaling that was happening. I watched every press conference and all of the Corona Task Force briefings. I took steam of consciousness notes like this, “ The Coronavirus Task Force Discourages Testing: The Testing Situation must be Worse than We Thought”.

So, when Trump started talking up the possibility of vaccines being produced in record time by project “Warp Speed” I noticed it. But, I misread it.

My contempt for Trump colored my analysis.

Because “I KNEW” after decades of being an epidemiology groupie (my interest in the “zombie apocalypse” dates back to the original “Night of the Living Dead”). That vaccines aren’t developed that quickly. I was sure of it.

I assumed it was a scam."

Now, I am not that impressed by the evidence presented in this article. I have learned that even experts often see what they want to see. If they can convince others, then maybe I'll give more weight to their analysis.

However, do I think this scenario is "possible"?

Absolutely.

Wuhan is one of the handful of research facilities globally that would have been capable of doing vaccine research on SARS-1. It's possible that they were doing attenuation research in an attempt to create an "inert" version of the virus for a vaccine. SARS-2 Covid is, after all, only 1/10th as deadly as SARS-1.

If they were trying to enhance the virus, they did a bad job.

So, it is "possible" that lab protocols failed.

Someone got infected and didn't know it. Then went out and spread it around. Where it got picked up at the market and starting "super spreading" everywhere.

It's possible.

It's also possible that this was also just a natural variation on the SARS-1 virus that we KNOW came from animal reservoirs and jumped to humans.

Will we ever know "for sure"?

Probably not. AND, does it really matter?

If we want vaccines, we have to accept that there is a degree of risk with vaccine development.

Expand full comment
Jun 5Liked by Richard Crim

Thank you very much Richard for the detailed reply and open-access links, much appreciated! Keep up the great work!

Expand full comment
Jun 7·edited Jun 7

It seems there is now a lot of evidence that it did come from the lab. Peter Daszak talking about how they modify SARS viruses so they bind to human cells. Fauci's dept funded GoF then downplayed the lab leak theory and there are all the emails from those involved about how to hide your messages from FoI. Apparently there are 300 indicators that point to it coming from a lab. Also Dr Redfield talking about how he is certain it came from a lab bec of cleavage sites etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html

Expand full comment
Jun 5Liked by Richard Crim

Richard! Who is going to attempt it? Do you believe pandemics are intentional? Have you heard about the Georgia Guidestones? I think most of our climate issues were expected, even planned for, but now they have gotten out of the control box and the powers that be are scared. Out of control Dr Frankenstein.

Expand full comment
author

Do you know the book "The White Plague" by Frank Herbert?

The White Plague is a 1982 science fiction novel by American author Frank Herbert about an engineered disease which kills only women. It was nominated for a best science fiction novel Locus Award in 1983.

That's the scenario I think is FAR more likely than any governmental agency or corporate research group releasing something. We have biohackers now who deliberately create viruses and infect themselves in attempts at "enhancement".

All it will take is one guy/girl who flunked out of Berkeley and has a grudge at the world. It's a low probability event BUT even low probability events can happen under the right conditions.

Expand full comment
Jun 6Liked by Richard Crim

I'm afraid to read it. Engancement of function is less likely than a pure killer designed to wreak havoc? The world would be much safer for me without women though, lol Dem Girls Be Dangerous!

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

You're the second person to wish for a "de-population event" Wow! You people are getting mean, lol

They told us it would happen. We will be chucking spears and rocks at each other soon . . .

Expand full comment
founding
Jun 3Liked by Richard Crim

Wait so hang on. 14ppm CO2 increase across 45-65 years. And we are 100ppm higher than barely 50 years ago now? And we are at 2.85ppm per year and rising now? Hahahaha oh dear.

Expand full comment
author

This is going to look like an "impact event" in the fossil record. A 100 million years from now, the successor species will have scholarly arguments about why temperatures shot up so much, so fast. They will "be sure" it was an asteroid strike.

Expand full comment

Well this doesn't sound good...

Expand full comment
author

😂, that's what I say almost every day now when I read the news.

Expand full comment

Right? It's like that old New Yorker cartoon: "My desire to stay informed is at odds with my desire to stay sane..."

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

Me too...

Expand full comment
founding
Jun 3Liked by Richard Crim

Well I guess we will find out soon if the 0.4 to 0.45C per decade number is hilariously low in comparison to what reality is right now, with our month by month acceleration changes… 🫠

Expand full comment
author

I am beginning to think we are going to get +1C this decade.

Ask me in 6 months and I'll probably know.

Expand full comment
Jun 3Liked by Richard Crim

I joined substack just so I could read your write ups again. Another excellent yet terrifying read.

I do wonder why the maps don't show new england warming much compared to the rest of the country.

Expand full comment
author

The Appalachian mountain range runs up all the way to Maine. Elevation is nature's air conditioning.

I once dreamed of hiking the AT from end to end.

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

Very true! I grew up in the foothills at the southern end of the range. It got to hot there for me to handle in the summers. Now I live in the northern part of the range.

To say I love these mountains would be an understatement. I still hope one day to hike the AT!

Expand full comment
author

Have you read Bryson's "A Walk in the Woods"?

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

Richard you said "gene editing tools available make it A CERTAINTY that there will be 2-4 attempts at triggering a global pandemic for "rapid depopulation"."

Can you please link to where you have discussed this? I am very interested in what you have to say about this.

Expand full comment
author

I have written on biohacking in the past. These are the people I are "most likely" to be the source of a future pandemic.

https://biohackingconference.com/2025

Expand full comment
Jun 4Liked by Richard Crim

There is already a condo crisis in Florida. The state requires all buildings past a certain age to get a structure analysis that most of them can't pass without huge cash outlays for reconstruction. Also, by 2025 all condo boards must have fully funded maintenence accounts. Add in doubling and tripling insurance rates and many people see huge assessments levied this year on owners. Many can't afford the assessments while HOA's double the monthly fee to pay for insurance and maintenance.

So . . . people are selling. Listing have tripled over last year. New buyers are cautious. Prices have started to fall. I believe this summer will put the icing on the cake. Many places will find no insurance available at any price. Yet if you have a mortgage you must be insured. A huge disaster awaits.

Expand full comment

From late June to mid-July 2021 a “heat dome” settled over the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada. Seattle reached a temperature of 107oF. Portland hit 116oF. And Lytton in British Columbia set the all time Canadian heat record of 49.6oC (121.3oF). Meteorologists were telling us something this unusual was a 1 in a 1,000 years event.

In October 2022 – over a year later – Scientific American said that it was a 1 in 10,000 years event:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-heat-dome-was-a-1-in-10-000-year-event/#:~:text=Researchers%20from%20UCLA%20used%20multiple%20climate%20models%20to,800%20people%2C%20had%20a%20probability%20of%20near%20zero.

Deadly Heat Dome Was a 1-in-10,000-Year Event By Anne C. Mulkern & E&E News - October 3, 2022

“The extreme heat that obliterated temperature records in the Pacific Northwest in 2021 will likely occur just once every 10,000 years. Researchers from UCLA used multiple climate models to determine that the extraordinary heat disaster last year was a highly improbable event, even in the age of climate change. Previous studies suggested that the deadly heat wave, which killed about 800 people, had a probability of near zero. ‘Accounting for the fact that things have gotten warmer, and even given the amount of warming we’ve seen in the region due to climate change, this event still came up as a highly, highly unusual event,’ said Karen McKinnon, assistant professor of statistics and the environment at UCLA.’ She couldn’t name any other 10,000-year events.”

My, how time flies. NPR just published this report:

https://www.npr.org/2024/06/06/nx-s1-4992288/heat-dome-high-temperatures-western-us

A heat dome can bring dangerously high temperatures. What is it? By Bill Chappell

The heat dome that’s currently putting a hot lid on the Western U.S. will bring high temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees hotter than normal for early June, the National Weather Service said. The forecast has both Phoenix and Las Vegas hitting 112 on Thursday, and the heat will stick around at night, falling only to the low 80s.

And the Washington Post published this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/06/07/western-heat-wave-records-how-long/

Western heat dome shatters records. Here’s when it will end.

The sprawling heat dome set scores of records Thursday, including in Sacramento, Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Expand full comment

Considering that the "Climate Experts" are consistently underestimating, and outright manipulating the baselines to fit their underestimating, I think they're the one's to be taken with a "pinch of salt".

Frankly I'm tired of hearing that the Climate Scientists are baffled by recent developments. At some point you shift your focus to models that accurately predicted where things were headed.

Expand full comment

I see Biden's action on the border as more of a way to pick up some votes and less - currently - to do with climate. I agree that the reaction of not only the US but damn near everywhere will be to have closed borders. That also will not work well when crossings number in the hundreds of thousands strong all along the borders. I don't see millions of displaced persons this summer, or next, but looming soon. I too am waiting to see just how eye opening this summer will be. Sort of has that feeling of something is coming, it's not good, and there's no exact time it'll drop.

Expand full comment