The Crisis Report - 75
A look at new papers validating my analysis over the last 3 years.
Plus, a discussion of some new stuff from James Hansen.
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, and Observations. (16 May 2024) By: James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato
Sophie’s Planet and Terminations
(30 May 2024), James Hansen
Chapter 25. Paleoclimate and “Slow” Feedbacks. (May 30th, 2024), preprint chapter from new book “Sophie’s Planet and Terminations”, James Hansen.
New Papers:
SO.
The evidence keeps coming in that the change in marine diesel is THE CAUSE for last years abrupt global temperature jump of about +0.5C.
ABSTRACT:
Aerosols sourced from global shipping industry affect clouds and we can view the shipping emission as a long-running inadvertent MCB (Marine Cloud Brightening) experiment. On January 1, 2020, new International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations on the sulfur content of international shipping fuel took effect.
The IMO 2020 regulation (IMO2020) reduced the maximum sulfur content from 3.5% to 0.5%.
While IMO2020 is intended to benefit public health by decreasing aerosol loading, this decrease in aerosols can temporarily accelerate global warming by dimming clouds across the global oceans. IMO2020 took effect in a short period of time and likely has global impact.
IMO2020 effectively represents a termination shock for the inadvertent geoengineering experiment through a reverse MCB, i.e., marine cloud dimming through reducing cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) (Fig. 1).
Observations of ship-tracks suggest that IMO2020 has reduced the occurrence and modified the properties of ship-tracks across global oceans, demonstrating that a regulation intended to reduce pollution had collateral effects on cloud microphysics.
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Here's how big an effect we are talking about.
Now, what do we know happened during this time?
What else does the paper say?
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The IMO2020 is expected to provide a substantial boost to the warming rate of global mean temperature in the 2020's.
The rate of warming is expected to ramp up quickly from 2020 and asymptotes to the longer-term trend line at the end of 2020. The 2023 record warmth is within the ranges of our expected trajectory.
The magnitude of IMO2020 induced warming means that the observed strong warming in 2023 will be a new norm in the 2020's.
The mean temperature anomaly of the 2020's will be +0.3C higher than that of the 2010s. Regionally, the warming effect from IMO2020 on SST is harder to estimate since basin-wide SST changes can be affected by variations in factors like other aerosol concentration, ocean circulation, and air-sea interactions. However, the strong geographical variations in the forcing suggest the impact of IMO2020 on SST may have significant variation among ocean basins.
For example, the North Atlantic SST may be disproportionately warmed more by the IMO2020 given the radiative forcing is more than three times the global average, which is likely a contributing factor to the pronounced warming of the North Atlantic SST in recent years
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Which leads to this graphic, courtesy of Dr. Eliot Jacobson on X.
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly is 1.25°C above the 1982–2011 mean.
As I said two years ago. “Global Warming IS Ocean Warming”.
90% of the ENERGY our changes to the atmosphere have forced into the Climate System, has gone into the oceans. It works out to about 14 billion Hiros, or roughly 99 Hiroshima class bombs for every square mile of ocean on the planet since the 1950's.
Hurricanes, heatwaves and rising seas: The impacts of record ocean heat.
Record ocean temperatures suggest the seas are warming faster than expected, and the impacts will be felt from polar ice shelves to coastal cities across the globe.
Every day since late March 2023, global ocean surface temperatures have set new records for the hottest temperature ever recorded on that date. On 47 of those days, temperatures have also surpassed previous highs by the largest margin seen in the satellite era.
By February 2024, the world had breached 1.5C warming of surface air temperatures for a full year.
In some regions last year, ocean temperatures were similar to those expected if overall global warming of surface air temperatures reached 3C above pre-industrial levels — suggesting quicker ocean heating than expected.
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ABSTRACT:
In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4σ envelope of the 1982–2011 daily time series. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m−2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean.
Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL.
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What this means, is that the oceans have enough heat in them to warm the Earth up to +3C in the General Climate Models. In fact, the models are saying that the current warming is either an EXTREME “natural variation” at +1.5C of warming or that we are about to “warm up to +3C globally.
The “official” measurement of warming right now is that 2023 was +1.5C over the “preindustrial” baseline. However, we have been at +1.7C for over 180 days now.
I have been saying for two years that the “official” number set by GISS and NOAA was “too low”.
Living in Bomb Time — 17 : Climate Report: Part Two.
How much has the Earth warmed up since the “preindustrial” period?Surprisingly it’s hard to get a straightforward answer to that question.
Now addition evidence is coming in that indicates my analysis was correct. We have been setting the baseline temperature at least +0.25C to high.
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Last summer’s temperature rise could be worse than we thought
The 19th century, used as a baseline for global heating, may have been a quarter of a degree cooler than previously believed.
The average temperature in the northern hemisphere last summer was at least 2.07C above pre-industrial levels.
The team made use of an existing international archive of meteorological data that had been reconstructed with the help of tree rings and reaches back as far as year 1 of the Common Era.
“What we found was that summer 2023 was the hottest even over this very long period of time and was 2.20°C warmer than the mean summer temperature since year 1 CE.”
“This clearly demonstrates the unparalleled nature of present-day warming of the Earth and how important it is that we take immediate action to reduce levels of emission of greenhouse gases.”
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Despite Denier claims that the current warming is “exaggerated” or just “natural variation”. There is NOTHING “natural” about it.
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“Unprecedented” — CO2 Rising 10 Times Faster Than Any Time in Recorded History.
Researchers conducting a detailed chemical analysis of ancient Antarctic ice have discovered that the current rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is 10 times faster than at any point in the last 50,000 years.
AND.
We may have triggered another feedback that could make things worse.
Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials.
Significance
Earth’s climate system and carbon cycle interact in myriad ways that can add or remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
We use Antarctic ice cores to resolve four multi-decadal-scale CO2 rises of up to 14 ppm that occurred during the most recent glacial period. These abrupt rises coincide with cold periods and iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic.
Ice cores show synchronous abrupt warming in Antarctica and vapor source regions, which is consistent with increasing Southern Ocean ventilation due to shifting Southern Hemisphere westerly winds.
Our results highlight past periods of dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation that occurred on human timescales and suggest that Southern Ocean CO2 uptake may weaken as Southern Hemisphere westerlies strengthen in the future.
Abstract
The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide.
Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial.
The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ± 0.8 ppm within 55 ± 10 y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4.
A +14ppm jump in global CO2 levels in just 45–65 years is what they found. This indicates that the oceans can “burp” up MASSIVE amounts of CO2 under the right circumstances. This is NOT GOOD for us because we are “melting” Greenland and creating the same trigger that caused this in the past.
Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds.
Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales.
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What this means is that we are ALREADY at +2C over any “rational” measure of “preindustrial level” temperatures, AND it’s RAPIDLY getting HOTTER.
We have lost any control over “Global Warming” that we thought we once had.
Remember these maps of what a +2C US would look like?
New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States — ProPublica, and Jeremy W. Goldsmith, Special to ProPublica, September 15, 2020.
These projections are STILL VALID.
This is what’s about to happen across America over the next 5–10 years. The physical “on the ground” reality is going to rapidly start changing in response to the new temperature regime.
If you live in a RED area like Texas or Arizona, how many days of +100F° can you stand?
On a regional basis the Southeast and Southern Plains regions experiences the largest increase in the number of HI100+ and HI105+ days per year (figure 3, table 1).
Within these regions, states such as Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Florida that experienced 20 to 40 HI100+ days per year historically are projected to undergo roughly a doubling in the number of such days with either scenario.
The southernmost portions of Texas and Florida are projected to experience 100 to 150 HI100+ days per year.
More limited areas — eastern Texas, Louisiana, and south Florida — are projected to experience 50 to 100 HI105+ days per year, a five-fold increase from historical conditions.
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One of the “first order” effects of this warming is the death of the world's forests. Trees have a pretty specific range of temperature and moisture requirements in order to thrive. Change that, and they start dying.
When enough of them die, there will be FIRES.
Living in Bomb Time — Ep. 10 : August 2021
The World’s Forests are on Fire, Ecosystem Turnover is the Cause. Let’s All be Really Clear on What that Means.
“Global Warming is warming up the entire planet, so every ecosystem on the planet is going to change in response to that warming.”
“Not just “vulnerable” places, not just “some” places, every place is going to go through this. The ecosystem you live in right now is already dying.”
“You might not have noticed it yet, but the plants and animals have. When it reaches a tipping point where there is enough debris from the dying ecosystem around where you live, fires will start happening.”
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Douglas fir die-off in Southern Oregon gives a glimpse into the future of West Coast forests.
Douglas fir trees around Ashland are dying in the thousands. It’s one example of how our changing climate is affecting forests in the region.
“In areas of this forest, anywhere from 20–80% of the fir trees are dead. Experts are calling it a decline spiral. Others are calling it “firmageddon.” Everyone worries it’s increasing the number of dead trees that could burn in future wildfires.”
“There are many, many neighborhoods right at the bottom of the slope here at Siskiyou Mountain Park. The vast majority of what is dead are right next to those neighborhoods,”
“A large wildfire could permanently change this forest if hotter temperatures driven by climate change make it hard for fir trees to grow back after a fire.”
“This forest as we know it is going away.”
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BEHIND THE CURTAIN, THINGS ARE BEING “DEBATED”
Signs of this are beginning to “leak out”.
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The two-time Republican presidential candidate was responding to rumors that top advisers to President Joe Biden have resumed talks about invoking a climate emergency — a significant move that would unlock federal powers to curtail oil development.
WTF?
Rumors that an emergency climate proclamation could be used to halt crude exports and suspend offshore drilling started to resurface in mid-April.
When Bloomberg poked the White House for confirmation that the Biden administration is considering such a move, spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández declined to comment specifically on any internal discussions.
White House Renews Internal Talks on Invoking Climate Emergency.
Bloomberg, April 17, 2024 at 6:18 PM EDT
Top advisers to President Joe Biden have recently resumed talks about the merits of such a move, which could be used to curtail crude exports, suspend offshore drilling and curb greenhouse gas emissions, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because a final decision has not been made.
Officials have not made a decision on the matter, nor is any declaration imminent, the people said. White House discussions over potential policy steps can span years, sometimes without ever coming to fruition.
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This is NORMAL.
The Crisis Report — 14 : February 2023
It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have privileged access to information will generally not tell you everything they know.
“A LOT is happening in the world. Things are not getting better. In fact the global situation seems to be deteriorating at an accelerating rate. Conspicuously absent from the conversation is the worsening CLIMATE CRISIS.”
The UN is trying to tell everyone that a DISASTER is about to happen.
28 May 2024
“Data analysis by UNFPA reveals an estimated 41 million people — or six per cent of people in the Latin America and Caribbean Region — who live in coastal areas are exposed to life-threatening storms and flooding. The analysis also shows that 1,448 hospitals vital to maternal health and family planning are located in low-elevation coastal areas more prone to natural hazards:
In Aruba and Cayman Islands, Suriname, Bahamas, Guyana, over 80 per cent of hospitals are in low-lying coastal areas.
Elsewhere in the Caribbean and Latin America, the countries with the highest number of hospitals in low-lying coastal areas are Brazil with 519 (7.2 per cent) facilities, Mexico with 159 (5.4 per cent) facilities, Haiti with 133 (10 per cent) facilities, and Ecuador with 130 (11.9 per cent) facilities.
“Climate change impacts women and girls the hardest and exacerbates existing inequalities. Millions of poor and vulnerable women and girls, who are the least responsible for the climate crisis, pay a heavy price when climate-related disasters strike and disrupt essential health and protection services as well as livelihoods,” said UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem.
UNFPA is launching this data at the Small Island Developing States conference in Antigua and Barbuda, where the organization is calling for greater investment and technical help to improve data collection on the impact of the climate crisis on women and girls and to support vulnerable countries to build climate-resilient health systems.
“We need scaled up and targeted investments that safeguard their rights and strengthen their ability to adapt,” said Dr. Kanem
The SIDS conference takes place just as the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway and is expected to be an “extraordinary one,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The climate crisis poses an existential threat to these Small Island Developing States. In several of them — Bahamas, Suriname, Guyana — more than 80 per cent of the population live in low-elevation coastal areas, which are up to 10 meters above sea level.”
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The FOX “news” response to this information?
“The UN is a world leader and strategist of climate alarmism and has made terrifying the public a performative art form with ineffective policy outcomes.”
“Putting the fear of misery and death into people doesn’t spur action.”
I don't know about that. Fear of DEATH has been a powerful motivator for me.
“If the UN truly wants to garner support and deliver, it must dial down the extremist language and provide factual, relevant, and digestible goals and paths forward.”
Biden’s POLICY CHOICE today is also VERY REVEALING.
Biden Expected to Sign Executive Order Restricting Asylum — NYT, June 3rd, 2024
The move, expected on Tuesday, would allow the president to temporarily seal the border and suspend longtime protections for asylum seekers in the United States.
The order would represent the single most restrictive border policy instituted by Mr. Biden, or any modern Democrat, and echoes a 2018 effort by President Donald J. Trump to block migration that was assailed by Democrats and blocked by federal courts.
What “privileged” information do you think is informing his choices?
Do you think it has ANYTHING to do with the prospect of 41 MILLION “Climate Refugees” showing up at our borders?
It SIGNALS very clearly what US policy is going to be.
We want these people to “die in place” and not come knocking on our door.
WE CAUSED this disaster. Our choices, going back to 1979, are responsible for what's happening in the world today. We GUARANTEED the WORLD that burning fossil fuels would be “safe” for at least a century. WE were WRONG.
Now, we want to deny responsibility and ANY liability for our actions.
If you wonder why so many countries are aligning with China these days, you don’t have far to look.
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Well, this got a lot longer than I intended. Next time I’ll discuss Hansen's papers.
Things are getting CRAZY, “faster than expected”.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 060224
Addendum:
SubStack tells me that 14% of my readers have found me via Reddit. Recently someone stated,
“Richard Crim is NOT a scientist. Also, the graph he has posted is NOT Hansens. There is NO red line in HANSENS graph! Take what this bloke says with a pinch of salt. Seriously. False prophet much?”
This is TRUE. I am NOT a scientist. I have NEVER claimed to be.
However, it has been awhile since I included my “Disclaimer” and I have gotten about +1500 new followers since then. Many of you probably have not seen my disclaimer. Here it is.
From January, 2023.
I’m not a “Legitimate Voice”. I represent no agency, government, organization, or company. When I write, it's just me, and right now I am out on the fringe.
Right now, what I’m saying sounds crazy and extreme. I think that’s going to change rapidly.
DISCLAIMER:
I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:
I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.
The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.
Back in the early 90’s I did National Security level analysis and threat assessment reports for a few years. My professional degree is a double major in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, but it is from the 70’s and has only minor relevance to the world today.
I also have a “hobby” degree in Anthropology and a passion for Mesoamerican archeology (see my Tumblr blog if you are interested, The Archeotourist — Mesoamerica). None of which makes me an “expert” on climate science.
The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles here on Medium, is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.
You have been warned.
If that changes your opinion about the value of my work. Well, I’m sorry I “deceived” you. Feel free to stop reading.
We really appreciate all this great analysis from you Richard, thank you very much.
> "Do you think it has ANYTHING to do with the prospect of 41 MILLION “Climate Refugees” showing up at our borders?"
All the Bitcoin Bros moving to El Salvador have NO IDEA what's coming our way. Many of them are climate change deniers/skeptics/contrarians, which makes sense when you consider that many of them tend to be libertarians.
Honestly, I know it's morbid to say but many of us now are coming to the realisation that the only thing that will prevent (or at least minimise) the climate change induced decimation of global ecosystems and biodiversity (i.e. the sixth mass extinction event) is a human depopulation event. Some potential candidates:
- SARS-CoV-2 de-attenuates and reverts to high virulence. This is what a minority of virologists/immunologists (most notably Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche) are predicting
- H5N1 avian influenza jumps into our species. This virus is resistant to vaccines and tends to be extremely neuro-virulent (it enters the eyes and goes straight to the brain), rendering masks ineffective
- Thermonuclear World War III between NATO and Russia/China/Iran
- Global sovereign debt crisis which would be MUCH WORSE than the 2007/8 sub-prime/Global Financial Crisis
- Massive geomagnetic storms (similar in magnitude to the Carrington Event of September 1859) caused by a major coronal mass ejection from the sun, triggering extended mass power outages
Wait so hang on. 14ppm CO2 increase across 45-65 years. And we are 100ppm higher than barely 50 years ago now? And we are at 2.85ppm per year and rising now? Hahahaha oh dear.