At this point most people don't. There is still this mental disconnect between "Climate Change" and "the Present". People, even those who understand climate change, still tend to think of it as something that will happen "in the future".
So there tends to be a "disconnect" between what's going on around them and connecting that to "Climate Change". People just cannot see that the Climate Crisis is already here and affecting them right now.
I used to think you could overcome that conceptual bias with information. After five years of focused effort I have managed to persuade only a handful of people.
I just returned from a 100 Mike ride on my motorcycle. My face shield was untouched by insect collisions. Normally, in May, in Florida, it would have been a greasy mess, hard to see through all the bug guts. It's not just less, it's freakishly less. Something terrible is going on under the surface here. Has anyone else noticed that the insects appear to have disappeared?
A LOT of people are saying this the last few months.
Hmmm....if I had to guess. I would say that it has warmed up enough in your area that most of the insect life has been "thermally extincted". IE, it got too damn hot for the insect eggs to survive and hatch.
Most of our flowering trees that the city is famous for did not bloom at all thus year and it wasn't much hotter than usual. It was, I believe, confusion. It would warm way up, then down to near freezing, then warm again, repeat. The fucking trees just gave up, "No flowers for you!"
Thank you for the advice at the end of this report. It is very helpful and shows that my husband and I are mostly doing what you have (deep pantry, etc) except for the bug out bag. I am resisting putting that together as we have 4 cats and I just cannot imagine taking them in the car nor leaving them...We are in our mid 60's as well, good health, lots of analog world know how and some connections where we live. I'm thinking we will have resources like water (we live near a river) and Notre Dame is here so they probably will do a lot to try to protect and preserve that institution. Honestly, what I am wishing for is a really robust pandemic that takes most of humanity out and leaves nature to nurse her wounds...If you ever need a place to stay we have room...
I don't know if you are a Robbin Williams fan, but I am. One of my favorite movies is one he did with Walter Matthau called "Survivors". It's about going crazy with "prepping".
Anyway, the big reveal is that the guy who sells prepper crap to people is a fraud. He doesn't believe a word he is saying in his books and "how to" videos. It's just a "money suck" that he has turned into a nice house, cars, investments, and a retirement account.
I just felt that if I am telling you "the end is nigh", I owe you an account of how I am responding to that information. My audience is small enough that you are more "fans" than just readers.
And that account is so appreciated along with your meticulous analysis of all the information out there. I wish your audience were larger but it is a very difficult thing to live with this knowledge so I suppose ignorance is bliss...Thank you Richard...
I too made a bug-out bag before but realized with my cats I couldn't use it. I won't leave them and in my poor health there is no way to carry them elsewhere. I am hoping in a sad way that the oldest one will peacefully pass away before he will have to suffer through this.
Yes...Imagining our pets suffering is the worst...We stockpiled cat food even before we started building up human supplies...Wishing us all a transition we are able to cope with...
Thanks for the tough honesty. I've sent this on to the only person I know who is aware of the crisis but even she isn't prepping at all. I will be bugging in with my 2 cats in my apartment as you are. I'm on my own but God has been with me for 86 years.
My own thought is that this can't be turned around and all the world's efforts should be to turn resources to those in the worst areas. Work on food distribution, water, health, and especially relocation - I think we are morally obliged in the industrialized countries to help those who aren't since it is mainly our doing. Relieve whatever suffering we can.
I absolutely agree that we need to be formalizing treaties and agreements on how to COLLECTIVELY deal with this crisis. Sadly, I don't expect it to happen any longer. Not unless there is a "Green Revolution" in global politics and someone like Gretta Thunberg winds up being "The Leader".
This isn't about keeping damage to a minimum anymore. We are WAY past that. You and I probably won't get 10 more years. I expect that with breakdowns in food supply chains, sanitation, infrastructure, and the Healthcare system I will die from a combination of malnutrition, hunger, and disease. Just like the vast majority of people over 60 are going to die over the next 10 years.
We NEED to be thinking about what we want to save and HOW we go about doing that.
Have you read the novel "A Canticle for Liebowitz?" It's science fiction but it imagines communities forming during the Collapse dedicated to preserving knowledge. This kind of effort can also be done in cities.
Just saying, if you are looking for a project. :-)
Thank you for the suggestion - I hadn't heard of it but just ordered it. I think you are right about the 10 years, maybe only 5 if the grid goes down. I don't like hearing people say they will turn to suicide or drugs or whatever if the SHTF. We are still children of God and our actions should still be by the same standards we live by as far as it will be possible. I hope I don't descend into a mindless animal scavenging for food as they say we will. I look to those like Viktor Frankl who retained their humanity in unspeakable circumstances for inspiration. I am trying to use this waiting time for mental preparation for the challenges ahead.
I just finished reading "A Canticle for Liebowitz" - thank you so much for recommending it. Not only a powerful novel but so applicable to the world situation now and as a Catholic I was very moved by his spirituality. I read up on his life and was saddened to learn he died a suicide.
He lost HOPE and did not know how to ENDURE until he could find it again. The ability to ENDURE when things are hopeless is an underrated gift.
Depression is like a trek across a VAST desert without a map. The journey feels hopeless and futile. It is easy to fall into despair and "give up".
The suicide rate for science fiction writers is something like 10X the normal population. It attracts bright idealistic minds but, they often become disillusioned and unhappy. A surprising number who start out as Liberal often become Reactionary or Conservative. The desire to "make stupid people do the right things" replaces their belief in the human potential for greatness.
I didn't know that about sci-fi writers! His wife had recently died, I read, so I am sure that is part of it. So sad, especially being Catholic he knew taking his own life was wrong. The end of the book has such a heart-wrenching plea against euthanasia.
Great Job on this article Richard Crim. This should be read by everybody but with the 2024 election ahead, GTA 6 coming up, and Taylor Swift Concert tour in full swing, It is very safe to state "Breads and Circuses are really kicking into overdrive.
Here are some questions
1-I live in NYC and so how badly will NYC be affected by the climate crisis ?
There hasn't been much focus on the Climate Crisis yet. That's about to CHANGE.
This summer is going to "clue in" a lot of people as to how bad the situation has become.
That spread in awareness is going to have social consequences. "Climate Panic" or "Climate Hysteria" behavior, as FOX will label it, will start occurring. 2025 is when I think the awareness tipping point will happen.
Because as bad as 24' is going to be. 2025 is going to be worse.
Re: the questions.
#1 Watch the Earth 2100 documentary. It's well done and a lot of big name thinkers contributed to it. It mostly takes place in New York because the protagonist moves there as a teenager and lives out her life there. I think it will give you some answers and things to think about.
It convinced me that city-states will be the "first stage" devolution in the Collapse.
Most of the southern part of the US will have temperatures of OVER 95F for around 26 WEEKS A YEAR. These are the places where the agricultural output collapses about 90% at +2C in the map I'm using.
We are now at +1.7C and may hit +2C by 2030.
That's what 2030 is going to be like physically. How successful we are socially depends on how fast we get our shit together over the next few years.
I just reviewed the link in #2 above. It doesn't look good for Florida. Billions of real estate losses are baked into the cake and nobody talks about it. Property in Miami is still premium priced. Is everyone insane?
For a while I kept thinking the farm thing might be a good plan. And although having land somewhere to go to is probably going to be helpful at some point, it does seem like you want to exhaust resources in denser stable area first. I’ve read books like where there is no doctor etc and grew up hunting and have some experiences with survivalism, nothing like what you described yourself doing in the 80s, but I understand what happens when you’re on your own. It’s different. Entirely different.
I’m also in the general area you are and have come to the point of also keeping decent food and water stocks on hand. A couple months of water and similarly 6-12 months of food for four.
We are going to have higher wet bulb risks in the near term but the infrastructure resilience along with some personal resilience steps like having backup options for if the power goes out on a 120 degree day should at least help shorter term. We have some drought concerns but generally it should be ok for long enough to matter. We have some migration options that aren’t terrible should that come to pass. Of course everyone else will be headed there too.
Yeah, I really didn't expect to be doing this kind of thinking again in my lifetime. I was so hopeful in the 90's. Sigh, I miss that version of me.
Still, if you don't play, you will probably die early on in some easily avoidable and embarrassingly stupid way. I just cannot stand the thought of going out first. My competitive impulse kicks in and I just have to beat the Trumpies.
Plus insatiable curiosity and an anthropologist desire to observe and take copious notes.
I hear ya. My motivation to bear witness is what drives me. Already accepted death years ago and understand it having been through near death experiences and plant medicine shit previously. I kinda secretly hope for full WW3 so I get vaporized in a nuke blast instead of having to suffer through starvation or an easily preventable death via infection or cancer, etc.
Very useful ideas in the second section. I moved from South Florida to Tallahassee, Florida for a couple of reasons. First, it's 250 feet above sea level. We still get Hurricanes but 30 miles of low coastal foliage takes the bite out of them and we will never get a tidal surge at this elevation. Second, the city has its own power generating plant, no big grid to worry about. Third, heavy forest tree cover takes a lot of the mid day sun off the homes and business roofs. Fourth, we sit on a huge underground water source that even goes into Georgia. Fifth, as the State Capital resources will go into maintaining functional services. The only downside is it gets HOT here in the Summer, but not near as bad as Miami or Naples.
I think people really have to think through their physical location. I believe where your home base is located will be more important than any prepping you can do. I have a commercial grade generator at my house and that's it for prepping for me. I'm hoarding money not supplies because there is no way we can forsee what supplies will be needed in our personal location. Your idea about MOVING NOW, before it really it's is the most important part of this essay. People need to admit it's really coming and they need to take action, NOW.
I have been saying that BAD TIMES are "a coming". I thought it would be helpful for my readers to have some idea of what preparing for this really means IRL. I am pleased with the positive feedback I've gotten in this.
It sounds like you have done your homework on picking a good location. At this point that's all any of us can really do. Just be aware, it can change overnight if you get a fire or hit by lightning or something freakish. Decide if you want to go down with the ship defending it or have some sort of "lifeboat" backup plan.
Either choice is valid, but what you decide should shape your plans.
I always enjoy your comments and love your attitude towards all of this. If anyone is likely to be OK these next five years it is going to be you.
I find it shocking that you have no sense of collective/community action! Extreme individualism which appears to be a core aspect of the survivalist creed is a hopeless strategy.
Systems that reinforce individual greed and hyper-consumption are a big part of the causes of global warming. We can’t replace the current death spiral economy with a livable global society without working through issues together. It is hard, but not harder than the world you anticipate.
I'm one of those new subscribers you referenced in your latest post, so I'm gradually working my way back through the archives. I've been closely following climate news for close to 20 years, so I'm not surprised or shocked by any of this information, but I do appreciate the depth of detail and the summarizing of reports. At age 70, with health issues, I'm not a candidate for survival in really bad times, but our deep pantry will help my wife and I weather some of the early turbulence. Living in the mountain country just west of metro D.C. provides as much stability as we'll need to get through the next few years. What I resent most from dying is that I won't learn the end of the story for hominids.
Back to work tomorrow. They ask how I'm doing, and I say, "Surviving."
These poor souls have no idea what's coming, and they don't want to KNOW.
At this point most people don't. There is still this mental disconnect between "Climate Change" and "the Present". People, even those who understand climate change, still tend to think of it as something that will happen "in the future".
So there tends to be a "disconnect" between what's going on around them and connecting that to "Climate Change". People just cannot see that the Climate Crisis is already here and affecting them right now.
I used to think you could overcome that conceptual bias with information. After five years of focused effort I have managed to persuade only a handful of people.
I just returned from a 100 Mike ride on my motorcycle. My face shield was untouched by insect collisions. Normally, in May, in Florida, it would have been a greasy mess, hard to see through all the bug guts. It's not just less, it's freakishly less. Something terrible is going on under the surface here. Has anyone else noticed that the insects appear to have disappeared?
A LOT of people are saying this the last few months.
Hmmm....if I had to guess. I would say that it has warmed up enough in your area that most of the insect life has been "thermally extincted". IE, it got too damn hot for the insect eggs to survive and hatch.
Most of our flowering trees that the city is famous for did not bloom at all thus year and it wasn't much hotter than usual. It was, I believe, confusion. It would warm way up, then down to near freezing, then warm again, repeat. The fucking trees just gave up, "No flowers for you!"
Thank you for the advice at the end of this report. It is very helpful and shows that my husband and I are mostly doing what you have (deep pantry, etc) except for the bug out bag. I am resisting putting that together as we have 4 cats and I just cannot imagine taking them in the car nor leaving them...We are in our mid 60's as well, good health, lots of analog world know how and some connections where we live. I'm thinking we will have resources like water (we live near a river) and Notre Dame is here so they probably will do a lot to try to protect and preserve that institution. Honestly, what I am wishing for is a really robust pandemic that takes most of humanity out and leaves nature to nurse her wounds...If you ever need a place to stay we have room...
I don't know if you are a Robbin Williams fan, but I am. One of my favorite movies is one he did with Walter Matthau called "Survivors". It's about going crazy with "prepping".
Anyway, the big reveal is that the guy who sells prepper crap to people is a fraud. He doesn't believe a word he is saying in his books and "how to" videos. It's just a "money suck" that he has turned into a nice house, cars, investments, and a retirement account.
I just felt that if I am telling you "the end is nigh", I owe you an account of how I am responding to that information. My audience is small enough that you are more "fans" than just readers.
And that account is so appreciated along with your meticulous analysis of all the information out there. I wish your audience were larger but it is a very difficult thing to live with this knowledge so I suppose ignorance is bliss...Thank you Richard...
I too made a bug-out bag before but realized with my cats I couldn't use it. I won't leave them and in my poor health there is no way to carry them elsewhere. I am hoping in a sad way that the oldest one will peacefully pass away before he will have to suffer through this.
Yes...Imagining our pets suffering is the worst...We stockpiled cat food even before we started building up human supplies...Wishing us all a transition we are able to cope with...
I laughed at that - I have 7 months food for my cats and only 4 for me! We'll all be eating cat food.
LOL, because I have about a years supply of cat food stocked up.
My cats will send me to yours when I come asking them for some food!
So funny...I wish crackers kept longer as I think they might pair well with Fancy Feast pate style!
Hoping a pandemic takes out most of the population? Not political correct, LOL
Have you ever read Stephen King's book "The Stand"? You would love it!
Thanks for the tough honesty. I've sent this on to the only person I know who is aware of the crisis but even she isn't prepping at all. I will be bugging in with my 2 cats in my apartment as you are. I'm on my own but God has been with me for 86 years.
My own thought is that this can't be turned around and all the world's efforts should be to turn resources to those in the worst areas. Work on food distribution, water, health, and especially relocation - I think we are morally obliged in the industrialized countries to help those who aren't since it is mainly our doing. Relieve whatever suffering we can.
I absolutely agree that we need to be formalizing treaties and agreements on how to COLLECTIVELY deal with this crisis. Sadly, I don't expect it to happen any longer. Not unless there is a "Green Revolution" in global politics and someone like Gretta Thunberg winds up being "The Leader".
This isn't about keeping damage to a minimum anymore. We are WAY past that. You and I probably won't get 10 more years. I expect that with breakdowns in food supply chains, sanitation, infrastructure, and the Healthcare system I will die from a combination of malnutrition, hunger, and disease. Just like the vast majority of people over 60 are going to die over the next 10 years.
We NEED to be thinking about what we want to save and HOW we go about doing that.
Have you read the novel "A Canticle for Liebowitz?" It's science fiction but it imagines communities forming during the Collapse dedicated to preserving knowledge. This kind of effort can also be done in cities.
Just saying, if you are looking for a project. :-)
Thank you for the suggestion - I hadn't heard of it but just ordered it. I think you are right about the 10 years, maybe only 5 if the grid goes down. I don't like hearing people say they will turn to suicide or drugs or whatever if the SHTF. We are still children of God and our actions should still be by the same standards we live by as far as it will be possible. I hope I don't descend into a mindless animal scavenging for food as they say we will. I look to those like Viktor Frankl who retained their humanity in unspeakable circumstances for inspiration. I am trying to use this waiting time for mental preparation for the challenges ahead.
I should have known you would be familiar with Frankl. His work is in my mental "Atrocity Museum". I wrote a piece about it on Medium.
Random Thoughts — 10
Exhibits in an Atrocity Museum
https://smokingtyger.medium.com/random-thoughts-10-bc925df01b3f
I must take a look at that. “Man’s Search for Meaning” would be so applicable right now for everybody. Part of the prepping inventory.
I just finished reading "A Canticle for Liebowitz" - thank you so much for recommending it. Not only a powerful novel but so applicable to the world situation now and as a Catholic I was very moved by his spirituality. I read up on his life and was saddened to learn he died a suicide.
He lost HOPE and did not know how to ENDURE until he could find it again. The ability to ENDURE when things are hopeless is an underrated gift.
Depression is like a trek across a VAST desert without a map. The journey feels hopeless and futile. It is easy to fall into despair and "give up".
The suicide rate for science fiction writers is something like 10X the normal population. It attracts bright idealistic minds but, they often become disillusioned and unhappy. A surprising number who start out as Liberal often become Reactionary or Conservative. The desire to "make stupid people do the right things" replaces their belief in the human potential for greatness.
I didn't know that about sci-fi writers! His wife had recently died, I read, so I am sure that is part of it. So sad, especially being Catholic he knew taking his own life was wrong. The end of the book has such a heart-wrenching plea against euthanasia.
Great Job on this article Richard Crim. This should be read by everybody but with the 2024 election ahead, GTA 6 coming up, and Taylor Swift Concert tour in full swing, It is very safe to state "Breads and Circuses are really kicking into overdrive.
Here are some questions
1-I live in NYC and so how badly will NYC be affected by the climate crisis ?
2-What is the year 2030 going to be like ?
There hasn't been much focus on the Climate Crisis yet. That's about to CHANGE.
This summer is going to "clue in" a lot of people as to how bad the situation has become.
That spread in awareness is going to have social consequences. "Climate Panic" or "Climate Hysteria" behavior, as FOX will label it, will start occurring. 2025 is when I think the awareness tipping point will happen.
Because as bad as 24' is going to be. 2025 is going to be worse.
Re: the questions.
#1 Watch the Earth 2100 documentary. It's well done and a lot of big name thinkers contributed to it. It mostly takes place in New York because the protagonist moves there as a teenager and lives out her life there. I think it will give you some answers and things to think about.
It convinced me that city-states will be the "first stage" devolution in the Collapse.
#2 A LOT HOTTER and HUNGRIER. Look at these projections (https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/) from Propublica and the NYT. Their "worst case" was +2C by 2050.
Most of the southern part of the US will have temperatures of OVER 95F for around 26 WEEKS A YEAR. These are the places where the agricultural output collapses about 90% at +2C in the map I'm using.
We are now at +1.7C and may hit +2C by 2030.
That's what 2030 is going to be like physically. How successful we are socially depends on how fast we get our shit together over the next few years.
I just reviewed the link in #2 above. It doesn't look good for Florida. Billions of real estate losses are baked into the cake and nobody talks about it. Property in Miami is still premium priced. Is everyone insane?
For a while I kept thinking the farm thing might be a good plan. And although having land somewhere to go to is probably going to be helpful at some point, it does seem like you want to exhaust resources in denser stable area first. I’ve read books like where there is no doctor etc and grew up hunting and have some experiences with survivalism, nothing like what you described yourself doing in the 80s, but I understand what happens when you’re on your own. It’s different. Entirely different.
I’m also in the general area you are and have come to the point of also keeping decent food and water stocks on hand. A couple months of water and similarly 6-12 months of food for four.
We are going to have higher wet bulb risks in the near term but the infrastructure resilience along with some personal resilience steps like having backup options for if the power goes out on a 120 degree day should at least help shorter term. We have some drought concerns but generally it should be ok for long enough to matter. We have some migration options that aren’t terrible should that come to pass. Of course everyone else will be headed there too.
Fun shit.
Yeah, I really didn't expect to be doing this kind of thinking again in my lifetime. I was so hopeful in the 90's. Sigh, I miss that version of me.
Still, if you don't play, you will probably die early on in some easily avoidable and embarrassingly stupid way. I just cannot stand the thought of going out first. My competitive impulse kicks in and I just have to beat the Trumpies.
Plus insatiable curiosity and an anthropologist desire to observe and take copious notes.
I hear ya. My motivation to bear witness is what drives me. Already accepted death years ago and understand it having been through near death experiences and plant medicine shit previously. I kinda secretly hope for full WW3 so I get vaporized in a nuke blast instead of having to suffer through starvation or an easily preventable death via infection or cancer, etc.
Very useful ideas in the second section. I moved from South Florida to Tallahassee, Florida for a couple of reasons. First, it's 250 feet above sea level. We still get Hurricanes but 30 miles of low coastal foliage takes the bite out of them and we will never get a tidal surge at this elevation. Second, the city has its own power generating plant, no big grid to worry about. Third, heavy forest tree cover takes a lot of the mid day sun off the homes and business roofs. Fourth, we sit on a huge underground water source that even goes into Georgia. Fifth, as the State Capital resources will go into maintaining functional services. The only downside is it gets HOT here in the Summer, but not near as bad as Miami or Naples.
I think people really have to think through their physical location. I believe where your home base is located will be more important than any prepping you can do. I have a commercial grade generator at my house and that's it for prepping for me. I'm hoarding money not supplies because there is no way we can forsee what supplies will be needed in our personal location. Your idea about MOVING NOW, before it really it's is the most important part of this essay. People need to admit it's really coming and they need to take action, NOW.
I have been saying that BAD TIMES are "a coming". I thought it would be helpful for my readers to have some idea of what preparing for this really means IRL. I am pleased with the positive feedback I've gotten in this.
It sounds like you have done your homework on picking a good location. At this point that's all any of us can really do. Just be aware, it can change overnight if you get a fire or hit by lightning or something freakish. Decide if you want to go down with the ship defending it or have some sort of "lifeboat" backup plan.
Either choice is valid, but what you decide should shape your plans.
I always enjoy your comments and love your attitude towards all of this. If anyone is likely to be OK these next five years it is going to be you.
This part had me laughing 😂 …“a delusional fool or a gullible idiot”… I mean sometimes you just gotta say how you feel; leave it to Richard Crim 😂😂
I know the rest of the article will be full of dreadfully scary info so Im just gonna stop and enjoy this moment 😂
I find it shocking that you have no sense of collective/community action! Extreme individualism which appears to be a core aspect of the survivalist creed is a hopeless strategy.
Systems that reinforce individual greed and hyper-consumption are a big part of the causes of global warming. We can’t replace the current death spiral economy with a livable global society without working through issues together. It is hard, but not harder than the world you anticipate.
I'm one of those new subscribers you referenced in your latest post, so I'm gradually working my way back through the archives. I've been closely following climate news for close to 20 years, so I'm not surprised or shocked by any of this information, but I do appreciate the depth of detail and the summarizing of reports. At age 70, with health issues, I'm not a candidate for survival in really bad times, but our deep pantry will help my wife and I weather some of the early turbulence. Living in the mountain country just west of metro D.C. provides as much stability as we'll need to get through the next few years. What I resent most from dying is that I won't learn the end of the story for hominids.