The Crisis Report - 74

Let’s talk about the next few years.

We have passed the point that things normally “cool down” after an El Nino peak. Summer is coming in the NH and the oceans are HOTTER than they have been in MILLIONS of years.

They are going to be TURBULENT.

I don’t know about the rest of you but I am “burned out” on watching the growing number of signs that the Climate Crisis has started. How many “unprecedented” floods, droughts, heat waves, tornado clusters, hail storms, deluge storms, hurricanes, crop failures, etc, can you read about before your eyes glaze over.

It’s OBVIOUS that SOMETHING BAD is going on with the Climate System. You have to be a delusional fool or a gullible idiot not to be able to see that.

This is the number people usually associate with “Global Warming”. How much warmer it is above the pre-industrial baseline. In 2023 global temperatures shot up to +2.0C over the baseline. They dropped down to about +1.7C and have stayed there. 2024 has been HOTTER than 2023.

There has been a “Climate Discontinuity”.

In 2022 the Global Mean Temperature was +1.2 over baseline. In 2023 it peaked at +2.0C before dropping back to around +1.7C over baseline. Since 2024 has been warmer than 2023, +1.7C is probably our new GMT.

The Global Mean Temperature just JUMPED about +0.5C in a SINGLE YEAR!

WE AREN’T THINKING CLEARLY ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS.

We imagine it being something like this.

There is a tendency to see this as “turning up the thermostat”. Imagining that there will now be a period of gradual warming.

It’s actually a LOT more like this.

The ENERGY that went into the Oceans in 2023 was equal to 500,000,000 Hiroshima class bombs.

This wasn’t like turning up the thermostat. It was like throwing a boulder into a pond.

The JUMP last year was just the first splash.

What comes now, is the WAVES. How long do you think it will take the Climate System to absorb this MASSIVE pulse of ENERGY, how long do you think that waves of disequilibrium will ripple through the system?

Part of our problem in dealing with Climate Change is the mismatch between our perception of time and the planetary time scale. We expect things to happen quickly in response to our actions. On a planetary time scale we just got hit by an asteroid about one second ago.

It will take 5 to 10 years for this ‘impact’ to be processed by the Climate System.

The weather for the next 5 years is going to be insane as the system absorbs that change in its ENERGY STATE. There is going to be a lot of HEAT and wild swings in rainfall and temperatures.

Mexico City’s water ‘Day Zero’ may come even for the wealthiest residents.

The metropolitan area of 22 million gets about a quarter of its water from a system that is running dry. Some say it could be unable to provide water by June 26.

Monkeys ‘falling out of trees like apples’ in Mexico amid brutal heatwave.

High temperatures in Mexico have been linked to dozens and perhaps hundreds of deaths of howler monkeys.

US storms kill at least 21 across 4 states on Memorial Day weekend.

Tornado-spawning thunderstorms that swept the Southern Plains and the Ozark Mountains have killed at least 21 people across four U.S. states as of Monday afternoon and wrecked hundreds of buildings, as forecasters warned of more severe weather.

‘I’ve seen things no one should go through’: the overwhelming scale of loss in Brazil’s floods.

In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, authorities are struggling to find shelter for half a million displaced people as a health crisis looms.

Papua New Guinea landslide buried more than 2,000 people, government says.

Papua New Guinea's massive landslide three days ago buried more than 2,000 people, the government said on Monday, as treacherous terrain impeded aid and lowered hopes of finding survivors.

In pictures: North India boils as temperatures near 50C.

Parts of northern India continue to reel under a prolonged heatwave that has thrown normal life out of gear.

You know what doesn’t do well under those conditions?

Agriculture.

1.5 Billion people were already in a state of “food insecurity” in 2021. Do you see that getting better?

These are the projected declines in agricultural output at +2C. In 2020 they thought that +2C was “worst case” by 2050. We will hit +2C by no later than 2035 now.

Plus, overall food production drops by about 25% globally at around +2C. That production won’t ever be coming back. At +4C the drop is -50%.

We have averaged over +1.5C since March of 2023. It’s starting to look like it won’t be “temporary”. In September of 2023 global temperatures peaked at around +1.9C before “cooling off” back down to around +1.7C for the rest of the year. It has been at +1.7C now for over 180 days.

We have now jumped to +1.7C and the Rate of Warming is +0.4C per decade (conservatively, it might be worse). So, +2C between 2030 and 2035 for certain. With MANY additional feedbacks like wildfires, melting Arctic icecap, CH4 spiking, etc, now also piling on.

This summer will open a lot of eyes. Then things will be BAD for the next 5–6 years of disequilibrium. Expect agricultural output globally to plummet.

You cannot grow food reliably when the weather isn’t reliable. We are about to have 5–10 years of unreliable, unprecedented, and unforgiving weather.

Followed by decades of FAST warming up to around +6C by 2100.

How many people do you think are going to starve between now and 2030?

Of all the projected impacts of a rapidly warming planet, this is the one that scares me the most.

Because it says that the future is going to be a hungry place, and hungry people will do anything in order to eat.

It has been 90 years in this country since we have experienced mass privation and widespread hunger on the scale of the Great Depression.

South Dakota 1936 Dust Bowl. Dust Bowl 2.0 is going to be WORSE.

We don’t pay attention to what is going on with the food supply because we haven’t had to for a long time. We have been able to take it for granted.

If you are realizing that you don’t know much about where all the food comes from, now would be a good time to start paying attention. The decades of being able to take it for granted are coming to an end.

Indian famine victims 1880–1900, there was a devastating series of famines that British colonial policies exacerbated. Millions starved, while the Governor shipped grain to England so that prices there could be kept low. THIS is what FAMINE looks like. When you vote to “keep people from coming here” this is what you are doing to them. Without a global treaty on Climate Migration and Refugees this is the fate we are condemning billions to die from in the coming years.

THE LIFE YOU THOUGHT YOU WERE GOING TO HAVE IS GONE.

How do you deal with the “death of the Future”?

What should you do NOW, with this “knowing”?

I have been thinking about this a lot lately. It’s something I’m getting asked about more and more often. Plus it’s something I have to consider for myself.

I guess it comes down to this.

Things are about to DRASTICALLY change in the world. The “good times” of the 20th century golden age of relative peace and plenty are coming to an end.

It’s NOT the “end of the world”.

The world will go on for another 2.5 billion years before we think the sun swells and engulfs it. To future ages we will be an interesting set of fossils and a layer of weird chemicals in the rock strata.

It is the END of “life as we knew it”.

The life we all thought we were going to have went into the fire in 2023. That future is gone. In its place is a dark smokey cloud that smells like burning, blood, and death.

The FUTURE doesn't look bright.

There is ZERO CERTAINTY now about the future.

Without certainty, how is any sort of “long term” thinking or planning meaningful?

All you can know for sure. Is that the rest of your life is going to be about things collapsing, sudden disasters, constant food insecurity, and repeated relocation.

Given that environment, how do you “plan” for anything?

The ONLY thing you can truly control is yourself. You can work at being the kind of person who “survives” under those conditions or you can decide that you would prefer to die with the “world that was”.

Here’s something I said to someone in their 20’s recently. They asked if there was “any point” in trying to survive.

“Mid 20’s is YOUNG. This is going to play out over your life and KNOWING that enables you to make INFORMED choices about what you want to do with the time you have.”

“KNOWING things are going to get worse, and that you are not going to have the life that your parents had, can be FREEING.”

You don’t have to worry about saving for “retirement”.

“If you REALLY wanted that life. Well, “sucks to be you”. You got “a life”, NOT a guarantee.”

“Get over that loss, mourn it, and MOVE ON.”

“If you want to have a shot at being one of the ones who “pulls through” NOW is the time to start getting your shit together and plotting your moves for the next few years”.

ALSO, the future is not fixed.

The Climate Crisis is here but all sorts of shit can happen. How this plays out is pure CHAOS.

In a chaotic environment your chance is as good as anyone else’s. If you are smart and informed you can make it even better.

Surviving, and being a POSITIVE INFLUENCE on the shape the FUTURE takes is, I think, a “useful” and worthwhile project.

My personal approach is going to be that of “the tiger” and not “the turtle”. I do not intend to “fort up” in a remote spot and try to eke out survival while I wait for the chaos to die down.

I don’t intend to try and hide, I intend to participate.

I think that will be “useful”.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

• rc 052724

Additional Notes:

On “Prepping”

I am in my mid 60’s and while I am in generally good health I have some issues. For one thing, I am going deaf. I had both eardrums ruptured in an explosion once and now the bill for that has come due.

With MY age and health it doesn’t make sense to move to a remote or even rural area.

I would argue that for anyone the rule of thumb should be:

If you are in a BAD spot (flood prone, fire zone, hurricanes, heatwaves). MOVE NOW, this is your last chance.

If you are in a GOOD spot and embedded in a community, save your money and stay put.

Depending on your age, you might consider things differently. You might want to do the “prepper” thing.

In the 80’s I was a SERIOUS Prepper. Like “The Survivalist” (2015 Movie) SERIOUS.

Here’s the thing.

Living in the woods, hiding out, is HARD WORK and it’s NOT safe.

If anything goes wrong, even just a cut that gets infected.

You are on your own.

It’s EASY to die on your own in remote spots.

And it’s a spartan, monkish existence.

It’s better than dying.

But not by much.

Have you watched the 2010 documentary “Earth 2100”?

Obviously it’s out of date and things are FAR worse than posited. However, I think that the best strategy is an urban one.

IF you are in the RIGHT urban area. Urban areas have resources and will get assistance long after rural areas are written off.

That being said, some places are better than others.

Here are some general things to consider.

I would get the hell out of sea level cities like Miami.

I would get the hell out of a place that is already having water supply issues.

I live on the outskirts of Washington DC, the “Capital City”. It will be supplied and maintained as long as the government stands.

In the event of Civil War I intend to relocate to Pittsburgh. Hansen lives in that area.

What I am doing:

I have been stocking and maintaining a DEEP PANTRY for the last 4 years. I started during Covid and have kept it up after 22' because I understand that famines are coming SOON.

By DEEP, I mean 6–8 months of supplies. What I can fit into the spare closet of my apartment.

This stockpile will allow me to stretch out my food budget as things get pricey. Then it will sustain me as things become unavailable. It’s not meant to last forever, just long enough for the situation to stabilize and allow me to make good choices.

I have a quarterstaff by my door and I KNOW how to hurt you with it.

I have a sharp machete in the trunk of my car. Just in case, and handy for all sorts of brush clearing.

I haven’t kept a gun since my brother killed his ex wife, kids, and himself after their divorce. I don’t feel a big loss. Most people are a danger to themselves with a gun.

Guns are overrated in the hands of untrained amateurs.

I have gotten a hunting bow and a hunting grade slingshot. A good slingshot is quiet and effective at short ranges. Plus you won’t run out of ammunition.

I also have a bug out bag. Just in case something awful happens like my apartment building burning down.

I keep my vaccinations up to date for EVERYTHING I can. Vaccine availability may decline greatly in a few years.

Most importantly, I stay AWARE of what's going on around me in the world and locally. I make an effort to get to get to know my neighbors and be friendly with them.

Because, in an emergency, they might be the people my life depends on.