Welcome to the club. Many major climate scientists got there about a dozen to 15 years ago.
The models weren't defective or broken. They were chosen to give answers that the economic and political powers were willing to accept. And even then they wouldn't accept them.
The only potential savior in the system is the immense amount of ice on Greenland and Antarctica. Their buffering potential has not yet been exceeded, at least not in the near term.
But ... What the experts realized 15-25 years ago was that if we push so hard with our emissions that we cause any of a dozen tipping points to be crossed that it is game over.
The politicans and others could not and willfully would not understand that. We have crossed 5 or 6 of those already. It is game over. But since it hasn't sent things careeing out of control on a month to month basis, the leaders and politicans and others would not accept that anything was wrong.
They are indiviudally and collectively wrong. They seem to operate in the view that until we cross ALL of the tipping points there is no problem. And even then, that we somehow magically get a reprieve then to do something. Not so.
Now that we are seeing the early stages of the destabilization of the atmospheric circulation with the jet streams becoming wild and wooly, with immense surges of heat being sent north and cold south, things have gotten wildly out of control.
The oceans are dying. Anoxic zones are forming. More will. The AMOC is on the virge of dying which will temporarily create havoc and cold in northern Europe as the Gulf Stream cuts across the Atlantic to Spain.
Tundra fires will increase and both the 1,500 gigatons of carbon stored there and the methane clathrates will "break".
And nothing will ever be the same again.
The gentle ice age world we have been living in for all of humanities time on the Earth is about to end. We will not rapdily rocket (in geologic terms) to hothouse earth conditions. Agriculture will collpase. Most species will perish.
But gelogic timescales aren't human timescales. And so we are the frogs being slowly boiled on the stove.
Even the pandemic forms a part of this. We humans want. We want what we want. We see in timeframes of a year or so, if that. We cannot conceive that we could impact something as large as the Earth. But we have. And so now we begin in earnest the rapid shift to hothouse Earth, slowed only by the time it takes the ice to melt.
And yet, a lot of our brethern are steadfastly convinced that the scribblings of people 2,000 years ago control everything.
The release of the added carbin do not give us enough time to mend our ways and to reverse course.
The release of the tundra carbon and the clathrates will seal our fate. And we cannot turn things fast enough to stop that.
What scribbling from 2000 years ago do you refer to? End times eschatology? The world will end is what they predict. Looks accurate to me.
I once saw a TV crime show where the police had video tapes of this guy's wife paying a contract killer to murder him. Even after watching the tapes he believed her story that it was all a mistake. Some realities are just too much to process for a lot of people. If it's bad enough we refuse to consider it seriously. It's just human nature. I think even the experts would rather ride this into the ground rather than look ot on the eye.
Specifically - the bible. People have preducted the end times over and over and over for all of history. Revelations in particulat came from a Greek prophetess. Much of the rest is retellings of older stories, fables, local laws, and tellings of stories handed down over centuries before being written down. Many stories were excised and discarded. Others were rewritten through many translations. Core teachings about the precession of the equinox remain in parts and the equinox itself remain, though are badly garbled.
That populations back then tracked the precession of the equinox and its impact on climate, plus shorter cycles like the annual flooding, the "death and resurrection of the sun" (not son) marking the winter solstice - is impressive, though missed my most. Those too came from older traditions and religions in the cobbled together book.
That the teaching includes moral ranting about the end of the world doesn't make it a prediction of today.
Hail Mithra? Doesn't matter to me who predicted it. What matters to me is the fulfillment of prophecy. If the weather doesn't convince you just look at Europe preparing to fight Russia while Isreal gets deeper into what will be a multi front war. Add in the second coming of President Trump and . . . and I don't know, but things look crazy to me. Wildfires and Floods anyone? When's the next earthquake? You know it's coming . . . by golly it's turning into my kind of a world. CRAZY CRAZY
People WANT IT TO BE TRUE so they behave "as if" like "fake it till you make it" in the Real Estate sales game. They don't realize there is no way out. We can't fake it until things change. And that's too much for the average person to accept. So they don't accept it and hate you for bringing it to their awareness.
you write: "In my next article I am summing up where the data has taken me and what I “see”. Spoiler Alert, it’s not good and it’s going to be FAST." and at the end you say: "Here’s the scary part.
We will know in 12–24 months if I’m right." SO, does that mean that in the next article you will tell us what you see happening in 1 or 2 years from now? I tend to believe you, so i am eager to know what you are forcasting.
Your explanation and graphs present what for me requires no belief...It is clear and obvious and, well, time to buckle up...You are helping those of us fortunate enough to have come across your work to prepare for the catastrophes to come...Perhaps only mentally, emotionally and spiritually, but then those of course are the most important...You are like an excellent diagnostician delivering to his patient in a most empathetic and truthful manner a terminal diagnosis...I thank you so very very much...Take good care...
I've felt this way since I read you for the first time on Medium (they kicked me out so I don't know what you're saying over there) It seemed straight-foward to me, like a math problem. If you accept the values used you have to accept what the problem solves out to. Only one correct answer in math right?
The only place I disagreed with you was your assumption we had a decade or more before the shit really hit the fan. I kept thinking you were too optimistic. Now you're thinking like me. It's over. I bought an expensive sports car so I can enjoy my days here.
The reason all of this doesn't bother me is I've always been "different"
I tried to fit in. I was a vice president at Northen Trust, I ran my own small brokerage firm for a while, then went to law school. I'm still a member in good standing of the Florida Bar. I was even married once. But nothing really fit well. Now, I live alone in Tallahassse, Florida. I've been here four years and still don't know anybody. I can go a week without speaking to another person.
But I'm built for crazy. I'm actually amped up at the thought of what's coming. It's like "Yes! I was born to live out the end" This is going to be the most exciting time in history to be alive. We will get to see which disaster move got it right. Nothing, nothing like what's coming hacever been seen. It is very exciting if you can look at it that way. Makes me feel more alive. Nobody has ever been in a more exciting times than what we are going to see.
I believe you, as do many of your readers. Please take care of yourself Richard. I’m so grateful for your writing, thank you.
Richard,
Welcome to the club. Many major climate scientists got there about a dozen to 15 years ago.
The models weren't defective or broken. They were chosen to give answers that the economic and political powers were willing to accept. And even then they wouldn't accept them.
The only potential savior in the system is the immense amount of ice on Greenland and Antarctica. Their buffering potential has not yet been exceeded, at least not in the near term.
But ... What the experts realized 15-25 years ago was that if we push so hard with our emissions that we cause any of a dozen tipping points to be crossed that it is game over.
The politicans and others could not and willfully would not understand that. We have crossed 5 or 6 of those already. It is game over. But since it hasn't sent things careeing out of control on a month to month basis, the leaders and politicans and others would not accept that anything was wrong.
They are indiviudally and collectively wrong. They seem to operate in the view that until we cross ALL of the tipping points there is no problem. And even then, that we somehow magically get a reprieve then to do something. Not so.
Now that we are seeing the early stages of the destabilization of the atmospheric circulation with the jet streams becoming wild and wooly, with immense surges of heat being sent north and cold south, things have gotten wildly out of control.
The oceans are dying. Anoxic zones are forming. More will. The AMOC is on the virge of dying which will temporarily create havoc and cold in northern Europe as the Gulf Stream cuts across the Atlantic to Spain.
Tundra fires will increase and both the 1,500 gigatons of carbon stored there and the methane clathrates will "break".
And nothing will ever be the same again.
The gentle ice age world we have been living in for all of humanities time on the Earth is about to end. We will not rapdily rocket (in geologic terms) to hothouse earth conditions. Agriculture will collpase. Most species will perish.
But gelogic timescales aren't human timescales. And so we are the frogs being slowly boiled on the stove.
Even the pandemic forms a part of this. We humans want. We want what we want. We see in timeframes of a year or so, if that. We cannot conceive that we could impact something as large as the Earth. But we have. And so now we begin in earnest the rapid shift to hothouse Earth, slowed only by the time it takes the ice to melt.
And yet, a lot of our brethern are steadfastly convinced that the scribblings of people 2,000 years ago control everything.
The release of the added carbin do not give us enough time to mend our ways and to reverse course.
The release of the tundra carbon and the clathrates will seal our fate. And we cannot turn things fast enough to stop that.
What scribbling from 2000 years ago do you refer to? End times eschatology? The world will end is what they predict. Looks accurate to me.
I once saw a TV crime show where the police had video tapes of this guy's wife paying a contract killer to murder him. Even after watching the tapes he believed her story that it was all a mistake. Some realities are just too much to process for a lot of people. If it's bad enough we refuse to consider it seriously. It's just human nature. I think even the experts would rather ride this into the ground rather than look ot on the eye.
Specifically - the bible. People have preducted the end times over and over and over for all of history. Revelations in particulat came from a Greek prophetess. Much of the rest is retellings of older stories, fables, local laws, and tellings of stories handed down over centuries before being written down. Many stories were excised and discarded. Others were rewritten through many translations. Core teachings about the precession of the equinox remain in parts and the equinox itself remain, though are badly garbled.
That populations back then tracked the precession of the equinox and its impact on climate, plus shorter cycles like the annual flooding, the "death and resurrection of the sun" (not son) marking the winter solstice - is impressive, though missed my most. Those too came from older traditions and religions in the cobbled together book.
That the teaching includes moral ranting about the end of the world doesn't make it a prediction of today.
Hail Mithra? Doesn't matter to me who predicted it. What matters to me is the fulfillment of prophecy. If the weather doesn't convince you just look at Europe preparing to fight Russia while Isreal gets deeper into what will be a multi front war. Add in the second coming of President Trump and . . . and I don't know, but things look crazy to me. Wildfires and Floods anyone? When's the next earthquake? You know it's coming . . . by golly it's turning into my kind of a world. CRAZY CRAZY
It's the clueless morons who think this civilization is doing just fine are crazy, not you
People WANT IT TO BE TRUE so they behave "as if" like "fake it till you make it" in the Real Estate sales game. They don't realize there is no way out. We can't fake it until things change. And that's too much for the average person to accept. So they don't accept it and hate you for bringing it to their awareness.
you write: "In my next article I am summing up where the data has taken me and what I “see”. Spoiler Alert, it’s not good and it’s going to be FAST." and at the end you say: "Here’s the scary part.
We will know in 12–24 months if I’m right." SO, does that mean that in the next article you will tell us what you see happening in 1 or 2 years from now? I tend to believe you, so i am eager to know what you are forcasting.
Your explanation and graphs present what for me requires no belief...It is clear and obvious and, well, time to buckle up...You are helping those of us fortunate enough to have come across your work to prepare for the catastrophes to come...Perhaps only mentally, emotionally and spiritually, but then those of course are the most important...You are like an excellent diagnostician delivering to his patient in a most empathetic and truthful manner a terminal diagnosis...I thank you so very very much...Take good care...
I've felt this way since I read you for the first time on Medium (they kicked me out so I don't know what you're saying over there) It seemed straight-foward to me, like a math problem. If you accept the values used you have to accept what the problem solves out to. Only one correct answer in math right?
The only place I disagreed with you was your assumption we had a decade or more before the shit really hit the fan. I kept thinking you were too optimistic. Now you're thinking like me. It's over. I bought an expensive sports car so I can enjoy my days here.
The reason all of this doesn't bother me is I've always been "different"
I tried to fit in. I was a vice president at Northen Trust, I ran my own small brokerage firm for a while, then went to law school. I'm still a member in good standing of the Florida Bar. I was even married once. But nothing really fit well. Now, I live alone in Tallahassse, Florida. I've been here four years and still don't know anybody. I can go a week without speaking to another person.
But I'm built for crazy. I'm actually amped up at the thought of what's coming. It's like "Yes! I was born to live out the end" This is going to be the most exciting time in history to be alive. We will get to see which disaster move got it right. Nothing, nothing like what's coming hacever been seen. It is very exciting if you can look at it that way. Makes me feel more alive. Nobody has ever been in a more exciting times than what we are going to see.