I KNOW, I sound like a “crazy” person.
I’m telling you “Climate Science” is BROKEN and the Climate Apocalypse has started. I’m telling you to ignore the mainstream voices and narratives you will hear on television, social media, and the news.
I am “arrogantly” claiming that I “see” what’s happening and understand the Climate System better than almost any other commentator\analyst currently writing.
And, I am asking you to believe me.
Almost no one else agrees with my analysis.
For now.
In five years they will. They will have no choice, in five years it will be obvious I am right.
RIGHT NOW.
Listening to me, believing in my analysis, accepting the validity of what I am saying, is asking a LOT of you, my Readers. I’m telling you that it’s going to get twice as hot, twice as fast than anyone expected.
I’m telling you that the Elites fucked up “big time” and our civilization is about to Collapse.
Asking you to take me seriously is a “BIG ASK”, it’s a lot.
In my next article I am summing up where the data has taken me and what I “see”. Spoiler Alert, it’s not good and it’s going to be FAST.
Think about this.
Last year the Ocean Heat Content increased by about +15 Zetta Joules. That’s the same HEAT ENERGY as setting off 3.4 Hiroshima Class bombs in EVERY sq. mile of ocean on earth.
That sounds BAD, because it is. However, it’s easy to miss the real significance of that number. Even when it’s laid out in front of you.
Almost +500 Million HIROS worth of HEAT was forced into the Global Ocean in 2023. In just ONE YEAR.
The Chicxulub Impact Event released an estimated 10 Billion HIROS worth of ENERGY into the Climate System. Since the 70’s we have forced about +14 Billion HIROS worth of HEAT into the Oceans.
At the current +500 Million HIROS per year rate of warming. We will hit 20 Billion HIROS worth of HEAT in the Oceans in just 12 more years. Around 2036 assuming things don’t get worse.
I don’t think our civilization can stand up to that much warming so FUCKING FAST.
In my article I spell out in detail how this happened and what/s going on. If you have been following my stuff for the last two years my argument is laid out in those pieces and little of what I am saying will be “new” to you. It basically lays out what I think about the question.
“Has the Climate Apocalypse Started?”
I’m not there yet.
I’m seriously depressed right now and it’s been hard to write. I am still coming to terms with my conclusions. The SPEED that things are going to get worse now, is so TRAGICALLY bad, that thinking about it brings tears to my eyes.
Don’t read it unless you want to know how bad it’s going to be.
Right now, here’s something “super cool”.
When the water in the Atlantic hits North America it gets pushed North and East along the coast line. That’s the “Gulf Stream”.
That line of “hot water” right off the East Coast. That’s it, the Gulf Stream.
You can literally see the Gulf Stream on the SST Anomaly map. It hugs the East Coast, gets pushed out into the Atlantic, then gets grabbed by rotational force and makes a U-turn towards Greenland.
It makes a small circuit on the west side of Greenland, but sea mounts keep it from penetrating further. Instead, it loops again and pushes out around the tip of Greenland. At which point it has cooled enough and is heavy enough that it begins to sink, pulling water into the huge undersea waterfalls that are part of the AMOC system.
Leaving a HEAT residue on the ocean surface that churns and then dissipates in two main channels. One to the South that warms Europe. One to the East that warms Scandinavia and Siberia.
It is a marvelous snapshot of HOW the Climate System moves HEAT around the planet using the oceans. It also makes clear how Arctic Amplification works.
Since the first Global Climate Model in 1974, it was understood that SOME of the HEAT being forced into the waters of the Tropics would reach the Poles. The question was always, “how much?”
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT QUESTION.
In 1998, GISS researcher David Rind called it “the second most important variable” in the Climate System after the Earth Climate Sensitivity number. Basically this variable determines HOW MUCH HEAT will build up at the Poles as a result of Global Warming.
Because the consequence of ACCUMULATION is AMPLIFICATION it has been understood since 1974 that the Poles would warm up faster than the rest of the planet. They have always been our planetary “sacrifice zones”.
In 1998 GISS decided that Arctic Amplification would be LESS THAN X2 greater than overall Global Warming. This means, that they expected most of the HEAT added to the oceans at the Equator to “radiate away” before reaching the Arctic.
The MODELS of the Moderates, still in use today, ASSUME that most of the ENERGY forced into the Oceans at the Equator will RADIATE AWAY before reaching the Arctic.
Reality disagrees.
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)
We didn’t PLAN for that, because the THEORIES and MODELS of the Moderates ASSUMED that it wouldn’t happen this way.
Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 103, NO. D6, PAGES 5943–5971, MARCH 27, 1998
Doubled CO2 equilibrium simulations from different atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models show different degrees of high-latitude climate warming amplification; in the GFDL model, the temperature response at high latitudes is 3–4 times that at the equator, while in the GISS model, it is only close to a factor of 2 [Rind, 1987a].
Now we know, the GISS model was WRONG and STILL IS.
The Oceans hold onto HEAT about twice as efficiently as the Moderates assumed they would. About twice as much HEAT as the Moderates projected would reach the Poles, is actually what/s happening.
The Moderate Faction in Climate Science, the ones we have been listening too since the 80’s. THEY GOT EVERYTHING WRONG.
Why is anyone listening to them?
Asking you to believe that, when no one agrees with me, is “A LOT”.
Here’s the scary part.
We will know in 12–24 months if I’m right.
rc
-03.01.2024
I believe you, as do many of your readers. Please take care of yourself Richard. I’m so grateful for your writing, thank you.
Richard,
Welcome to the club. Many major climate scientists got there about a dozen to 15 years ago.
The models weren't defective or broken. They were chosen to give answers that the economic and political powers were willing to accept. And even then they wouldn't accept them.
The only potential savior in the system is the immense amount of ice on Greenland and Antarctica. Their buffering potential has not yet been exceeded, at least not in the near term.
But ... What the experts realized 15-25 years ago was that if we push so hard with our emissions that we cause any of a dozen tipping points to be crossed that it is game over.
The politicans and others could not and willfully would not understand that. We have crossed 5 or 6 of those already. It is game over. But since it hasn't sent things careeing out of control on a month to month basis, the leaders and politicans and others would not accept that anything was wrong.
They are indiviudally and collectively wrong. They seem to operate in the view that until we cross ALL of the tipping points there is no problem. And even then, that we somehow magically get a reprieve then to do something. Not so.
Now that we are seeing the early stages of the destabilization of the atmospheric circulation with the jet streams becoming wild and wooly, with immense surges of heat being sent north and cold south, things have gotten wildly out of control.
The oceans are dying. Anoxic zones are forming. More will. The AMOC is on the virge of dying which will temporarily create havoc and cold in northern Europe as the Gulf Stream cuts across the Atlantic to Spain.
Tundra fires will increase and both the 1,500 gigatons of carbon stored there and the methane clathrates will "break".
And nothing will ever be the same again.
The gentle ice age world we have been living in for all of humanities time on the Earth is about to end. We will not rapdily rocket (in geologic terms) to hothouse earth conditions. Agriculture will collpase. Most species will perish.
But gelogic timescales aren't human timescales. And so we are the frogs being slowly boiled on the stove.
Even the pandemic forms a part of this. We humans want. We want what we want. We see in timeframes of a year or so, if that. We cannot conceive that we could impact something as large as the Earth. But we have. And so now we begin in earnest the rapid shift to hothouse Earth, slowed only by the time it takes the ice to melt.
And yet, a lot of our brethern are steadfastly convinced that the scribblings of people 2,000 years ago control everything.
The release of the added carbin do not give us enough time to mend our ways and to reverse course.
The release of the tundra carbon and the clathrates will seal our fate. And we cannot turn things fast enough to stop that.