Now that I have finished cursing my government in the loudest possible voice, I am ready to thank you for this clear and mostly easy to understand explanation of our completely fucked situation...I am really one who wants to KNOW as bottom line for me is psychological preparedness. I want to keep on living in a reasonably sane fashion for as long as I have left, so thank you for helping me gird my loins and prepare for the worst, in whatever form it may take. Wondering what could China do to make this less bad???
Yeah, we really screwed this up badly. The rest of the century and most of the next are probably going to be AWFUL for the survivors of what we have done.
That's my opinion anyway. Hansen and the Chinese seem to think we can SLOW this down with geoengineering using SOx particulates. We know it can work because we have done it in the past. The issue is going to be "Whose in CHARGE?"
The HEAD of the geoengineering project will be the "de facto Superpower" for the next 100 years. The Chinese think it should be them, or a Coalition of the Global South. They DO NOT want a Trumpist America in charge of the Global Climate.
Well researched and argued. However, what does it matter which projections we use? Let's all agree with the floats, or with China, where does that get us? Nobody is DOING anything as far as I can tell. Let's all be alarmist realistic. Now what?
I for one have moved to high ground and avoided expensive home remodeling expenses. All my 30 years old appliances and furnishings are staying. Got a generator. Stashed some cash money. What else?
Is the government going to help? Really now, what's it matter at this point? Maybe the fantasy approach is the better option. Just don't look over there . . . isn't it too late anyway?
Personally I think it is too late to stop what's happening. The Boreal Forests are going to burn, the permafrost will melt, the feedbacks are going to push us up around +6C by 2100 and +10C by 2150. I agree with Hansen on how much warming will happen, my timeline is just a lot shorter.
That being said, Hansen and the Chinese both seem to think that warming will plateau after this spike and that geoengineering a "cool down" will be possible.
The Chinese want to be IN CHARGE during this period and they are willing to fight to make if happen. Crucial to that will be rallying the Global 80% to their banner.
If they can PROVE that the Americans KNEW the dangers of Climate Change and deliberately ignored them to "get rich at the WORLDS expense" that will sway more than a few "hearts and minds".
My understanding is that Geoengineering is now in use worldwide. Geoengineering.org will spill the current facts. Things are worse than even you and Hansen think. Something like 80% of the world's insects are already missing. Second year in a row for no crab season in Alaska. Literally BILLIONS of crabs are missing. The Pacific Northwest are not seeing Salmon runs anymore . . . Plankton in the Atlantic Ocean is reduced by more than 50% in many places.
Now, burn the Boreal Forrests, all of them, then melt the Permaftost and release God knows how much Methane . . . My God Richard, we are just getting started. I wanna nap. I want my Mommy . . .
"Using different methods to process different data sets, U.S. and Chinese scientists agree that the top 2,000 meters of the ocean is drastically warming!" I'm very naive. I thought raw data was raw data. Period. Does NOAA and GISS explain how they manipulate the data --- and why???
By the way the zetta joule graph that you use shows an important tipping point. Jim Massa, oceanographer and climatologist, talked about ocean heating seven months ago (6/13/23) on Environmental Coffeehouse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRSV8EuNyjE. His discussion on ocean heating begins at the 28:38 minute mark. At the 56 :02 mark he reshows a chart and makes the claim that this is the major tipping point that explains when ocean warming started. The oceans cease to store all heat and start to be a source.
"Once the oceans no longer sequester heat to depth and it starts accumulating in the surface it's leading to warmer and warmer air temperatures, warmer sea surface temperatures, increased sea ice melt, increased land ice loss. And then of course rising sea levels, etc. It's at this point in the mid-90s is when the big transition happened. ... This is when the planet overall went past the tipping point. And it's not going to reverse for tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of years." – Jim Massa
Now that I have finished cursing my government in the loudest possible voice, I am ready to thank you for this clear and mostly easy to understand explanation of our completely fucked situation...I am really one who wants to KNOW as bottom line for me is psychological preparedness. I want to keep on living in a reasonably sane fashion for as long as I have left, so thank you for helping me gird my loins and prepare for the worst, in whatever form it may take. Wondering what could China do to make this less bad???
Yeah, we really screwed this up badly. The rest of the century and most of the next are probably going to be AWFUL for the survivors of what we have done.
That's my opinion anyway. Hansen and the Chinese seem to think we can SLOW this down with geoengineering using SOx particulates. We know it can work because we have done it in the past. The issue is going to be "Whose in CHARGE?"
The HEAD of the geoengineering project will be the "de facto Superpower" for the next 100 years. The Chinese think it should be them, or a Coalition of the Global South. They DO NOT want a Trumpist America in charge of the Global Climate.
I do not blame them.
Well researched and argued. However, what does it matter which projections we use? Let's all agree with the floats, or with China, where does that get us? Nobody is DOING anything as far as I can tell. Let's all be alarmist realistic. Now what?
I for one have moved to high ground and avoided expensive home remodeling expenses. All my 30 years old appliances and furnishings are staying. Got a generator. Stashed some cash money. What else?
Is the government going to help? Really now, what's it matter at this point? Maybe the fantasy approach is the better option. Just don't look over there . . . isn't it too late anyway?
Personally I think it is too late to stop what's happening. The Boreal Forests are going to burn, the permafrost will melt, the feedbacks are going to push us up around +6C by 2100 and +10C by 2150. I agree with Hansen on how much warming will happen, my timeline is just a lot shorter.
That being said, Hansen and the Chinese both seem to think that warming will plateau after this spike and that geoengineering a "cool down" will be possible.
The Chinese want to be IN CHARGE during this period and they are willing to fight to make if happen. Crucial to that will be rallying the Global 80% to their banner.
If they can PROVE that the Americans KNEW the dangers of Climate Change and deliberately ignored them to "get rich at the WORLDS expense" that will sway more than a few "hearts and minds".
My understanding is that Geoengineering is now in use worldwide. Geoengineering.org will spill the current facts. Things are worse than even you and Hansen think. Something like 80% of the world's insects are already missing. Second year in a row for no crab season in Alaska. Literally BILLIONS of crabs are missing. The Pacific Northwest are not seeing Salmon runs anymore . . . Plankton in the Atlantic Ocean is reduced by more than 50% in many places.
Now, burn the Boreal Forrests, all of them, then melt the Permaftost and release God knows how much Methane . . . My God Richard, we are just getting started. I wanna nap. I want my Mommy . . .
You say:
"Using different methods to process different data sets, U.S. and Chinese scientists agree that the top 2,000 meters of the ocean is drastically warming!" I'm very naive. I thought raw data was raw data. Period. Does NOAA and GISS explain how they manipulate the data --- and why???
By the way the zetta joule graph that you use shows an important tipping point. Jim Massa, oceanographer and climatologist, talked about ocean heating seven months ago (6/13/23) on Environmental Coffeehouse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRSV8EuNyjE. His discussion on ocean heating begins at the 28:38 minute mark. At the 56 :02 mark he reshows a chart and makes the claim that this is the major tipping point that explains when ocean warming started. The oceans cease to store all heat and start to be a source.
"Once the oceans no longer sequester heat to depth and it starts accumulating in the surface it's leading to warmer and warmer air temperatures, warmer sea surface temperatures, increased sea ice melt, increased land ice loss. And then of course rising sea levels, etc. It's at this point in the mid-90s is when the big transition happened. ... This is when the planet overall went past the tipping point. And it's not going to reverse for tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of years." – Jim Massa