The Crisis Report - 62

Has the “Climate Apocalypse” started? — Part Two

In this graph the “peaks” over the last 150,000 years are the “warm periods” between ICE AGES. The first green line marks the END of the last GLACIAL MAXIMUM when Global Temperatures were about -6C below our 1850 baseline. The second green line is the “Late Antique Ice Age” which caused Rome to COLLAPSE. Between 150AD and 650AD the Climate in Europe got progressively COLDER. The population fell by about 50%.

What you THINK, seems to depend on what you SEE in the graph above.

With no other context, what does the graph indicate to you about the STATUS of the Earth/s Climate System?

If you SEE, what looks like a “truly MASSIVE” jump in the YEARLY amount of energy flowing into the Climate System. Then ALL the “Evidence” agrees with you.

This estimate pegs it at around 12 Hiros per Second currently. I think it/s closer to 15.

NASA/GISS, NOAA, and the Climate Moderates like Berkeley Earth AREN’T SURE yet.

Global Temperature Report for 2023 — Berkeley Earth Jan, 12 2024.

“2023 was a highly unusual year in several respects, including record warmth in most ocean basins and a large deviation from the historical trend.”

“Warmth in 2023 greatly exceeded expectations, and was much stronger than normal this early in an El Niño.”

“Some studies have recently argued that the pace of global warming may be accelerating.”

“However, given historical variability in surface temperatures, it still remains too early to conclude whether or not the pace of surface warming has increased.”

— Berkeley Earth 2024

If you have been paying attention, this SPIKE has been the “MAIN TOPIC” of discussion among ALL the serious Climate Scientists in the world. For the LAST FOUR YEARS.

This is a CRISIS in the field of Climate Science.

According to the prevailing “Climate Paradigm” of the Moderates, this CANNOT happen. There is NO WAY for a “Warming Spike” like this to occur in their MODELS.

Their THEORETICAL MODELS.

“Reality” is suddenly diverging from the MODELS of the Climate Science Moderates. The Climate Paradigm of the Moderates could COLLAPSE as a result of this.

People like Michael Mann and Hannah Ritche would look like complete tools of the Fossil Fuel Industry, complete idiots, or flat out liars.

The Moderates are NOT MOTIVATED to “accept” a reality that doesn’t conform to their MODELS. The Political and Financial Elites of the “Developed World” aka ‘White Empire” are also NOT MOTIVATED to “accept” a world in which a “Climate Crisis” is crashing down upon us.

NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR THAT THE ALARMISTS WERE RIGHT.

So, let’s review the evidence and see what the FACTS, tell us.

How do you solve jigsaw puzzles? Most people have a METHOD or PATTERN they use. I always sort out the edge pieces and build the EDGE FIRST. Then I go “piece by piece” and identify where each one belongs within the puzzle.

The “Most Important” FACTS to KNOW about what’s Happening. A ‘Policy Makers Summary” if you will.

Fact #1 — The Earth’s ALBEDO has DIMMED.

This graph shows the downward trend in Earth’s albedo, as measured by earthshine (black) and CERES data (blue) in watts per square meter. Image credit: Goode et al. (2021), Geophysical Research Letters.

Here’s the bad news: the Earth’s albedo has been declining during the last 20 years.

Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021

Synopsis:

Earth observation satellites are constantly measuring the Earth’s albedo using a suite of sensors, and the reflectivity of the planet is measured through earthshine, the light from the Earth that reflects off the Moon. This paper analyzes earthshine measurements between 1998 and 2017 to see if the Earth’s albedo is rising or declining in response to climate change.

The graph elegantly SUMS UP their conclusion.

The BLACK line is the Earthshine dataset, the BLUE is the NASA CERES observations. Goode reports a “Climate Forcing” of +0.6W/m2 by 2017. The CERES data show a forcing of +1.8W/m2.

The ALBEDO has DIMMED over the last 20 years. That’s a FACT.

Fact #2 — As the ALBEDO has dimmed, the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) has GROWN.

In 2004 the EEI was +0.3W/m2. Going into 2024 the EEI is +1.5W/m2.

What you are seeing in this graph, is a TSUNAMI of ENERGY flooding into the Climate System over the last 20 years.

As the planetary albedo dimmed the EEI increased. Pretty much in lock-step. That’s a FACT.

Fact #3 — 80% of that ENERGY is CAPTURED in the Tropics.

This visualizes one year of Energy capture from the sun.

The graph vividly makes clear where the ENERGY the powers the Climate System is captured on the planet. GLOBAL WARMING doesn’t change this basic reality because it’s a result of the Earth/s AXIAL TILT.

Each of the two polar zones spends about four months in “darkness”, receiving little to no ENERGY from the Sun.

FLOODING the Climate System with ENERGY doesn’t change the BASIC GEOMETRY of the planet.

Here’s an important detail. The Northern and Southern Hemispheres process this heat energy differently. Because 2/3 of the land surface area is in the Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole is an ocean while the South Pole is a continent.

80% of this ENERGY WAVE will pass through the Tropics. That’s a FACT.

Fact #4–90% of that ENERGY will go into the OCEANS. Global Warming is Ocean Warming.

The oceans have been warming at record-breaking rates every year since 2019. 90% of the excess heat in the Earth’s Climate System is stored in the Oceans.

The amount of HEAT building up in the Oceans is STAGGERING.

This is the analysis of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in Beijing. These researchers say that the oceans have been warming at “record breaking” rates EVERY YEAR since 2019.

The Americans and the Chinese disagree on just “how much” ENERGY has built up in the Oceans.

The Americans basically see about 40% less warming than the Chinese. This mirrors the division in the field of Climate Science between the Moderates and the Alarmists. The Moderates have estimated the Earth Climate Sensitivity (ECS) at around -40% less than the Alarmists since the 1979 Woods Hole Climate Summit.

NO ONE disputes that 90% of the ENERGY from the EEI goes into to Oceans. That’s a FACT.

Fact #5 — HEAT moves from HOT places to COLD places. This is a BASIC property of Thermodynamics.

The red arrows represent HEAT ENERGY moving from the HOT ZONE around the equator to the COLD POLAR ZONES.

In 1975 Manabe and Wetherald published a seminal paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, entitled “The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model”.

They used a 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) to investigate for the first time the effects of doubling atmospheric CO2 levels from 280ppm to 560ppm.

The results revealed, among other things, disproportionate warming at the poles (POLAR AMPLIFICATION) and a “significantly” increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle.

In the FIRST real Climate Model in 1975, they predicted that some of the increasing HEAT in the TROPICS would MOVE to the POLAR regions and ACCUMULATE. The question has always been, how much?

KEEP IN MIND. It’s different for the two hemispheres. The NH and the SH process HEAT, VERY differently.

Most of the “Global South” live in the TROPICS. About 2/3 of the LAND is in the Northern Hemisphere.

Although each hemisphere receives about the same amount of ENERGY each year. They “process” it VERY Differently.

In the modern world the Temperature Gradient between the Equator and the North Pole is about -45C. The South Pole is MUCH colder than the North Pole. Its Temperature Gradient is about -80C. From these curves, you can tell how much of the HEAT ENERGY that starts at the Equator winds up at each Pole.

In MANY WAYS, we live on TWO DIFFERENT planets. There is often a tendency to look at events happening in the SH as a “preview” of what’s in store for the NH.

The Southern Hemisphere is warming at about 1/2 the rate of the Northern. It’s believed this is due to the SH having “more ocean” and a continent at the Pole instead of an ocean.

This doesn’t mean that the SH is only going to heat up “half-as-much” as the NH. Antarctica is going to get the SAME PULSE of HEAT that is currently hitting the Arctic. It’s just going to take twice as long.

The High Arctic has been WARMING faster than anywhere on Earth. Overall the region has warmed +4C since 1979. A Rate of Warming of +1C PER DECADE. Parts of Siberia have warmed +8C since 1979. You don/t have to be a “Climate Scientist” to see that/s where the Atlantic “dumps” its HEAT.

The way to understand this process is to use the graph below to visualize the polar temperature as “floating” on the leftover HEAT ENERGY from the Equator. About 38% of the ENERGY that starts at the Equator reaches the High Arctic and warms it.

Think of it this way. If you start with +85 units of HEAT ENERGY at the Equator. By the time the HEAT ENERGY reaches the North Pole +40 units of HEAT ENERGY are still left.

The “heat loss constant” in this case is -0.62C per degree of latitude.

HEAT moves from the HOT TROPICS to the COLD POLES. That’s a FACT.

Fact #6 — In 1998 NASA/GISS “guesstimated” that Polar Amplification should be “less that a factor of two”.

Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 103, NO. D6, PAGES 5943–5971, MARCH 27, 1998

Doubled CO2 equilibrium simulations from different atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models show different degrees of high-latitude climate warming amplification; in the GFDL model, the temperature response at high latitudes is 3–4 times that at the equator, while in the GISS model, it is only close to a factor of 2 [Rind, 1987a].

With the average global temperature estimated to be 1.54 ± 0.06 °C (2.77 ± 0.11 °F) warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. The ENTIRE planet was “warmer than normal”.

Now we know, the GISS model was WRONG. Catastrophically WRONG.

Here’s the “fate of civilization” QUESTION these ASSHOLES at GISS “bet your children’s lives on” in 1998. The QUESTION that had been “nagging” Climate Science since that “first” model in 1975.

SO, pay attention.

What happen/s at the POLES when you slam more HEAT in at the EQUATOR, what effect does that have on the LEtPTG (Latintudinal Equator to Pole Temperature Gradient Curve)?

If you pile on extra HEAT ENERGY at the Equator, what will happen? In 1998, we didn’t know.

SOME of that extra HEAT is going to end up at the POLES.

Thermodynamics and the axial tilt of the planet dictates that outcome.

HEAT always flows from the EQUATOR to the POLES. So, what happens when the EXTRA HEAT in the Climate System gets to the POLES?

In 1998 there were 3 main “theories” about the North Pole.

1. The NP would just ‘eat’ the extra HEAT ENERGY. — DENIERS

2. The temperature at the NP would go up, “slightly”. — MODERATES

3. The temperature at the NP would go up, “A LOT”. — ALARMISTS

What was starting to scare Moderate Climate Scientists in 1998, was that they had believed the answer would be #1 or #2. But the new fossil evidence, indicated it might be #3.

In today’s climate, the Northern range of alligators is North Carolina. 54mya the High Arctic was about +40C warmer. The atmospheric CO2 level was around 1600ppm.

Here are Rind’s conclusions.

“Future climate projections from different (Climate) models show substantial differences in the projected latitudinal temperature response from anthropogenic greenhouse perturbations”.

This is due to the different estimates about Climate Sensitivity. If you think 2XCO2 (doubling atmospheric CO2) is going to raise the Global Mean Temperature by +2C, you get a VERY different answer than if you think it/s going to raise the GMT by +4C.

Doubled CO2 equilibrium simulations from different atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models show different degrees of high-latitude climate warming amplification.

In the GFDL model (Alarmist), the temperature response at high latitudes is 3–4 times that at the equator.

While in the GISS model (Moderate), it is only close to a factor of 2 [Rind, 1987a].

The regional response in these different models depends on these differences in equator-to-pole gradients, which affects the hydrologic cycle, in general, and storm energetics [Rind, 1987a, 1988].

Translation — EVERYTHING, “kinda” depends on how this works.

Rind and NASA/GISS had a CHOICE here. Between an ALARMIST model they didn’t “agree” with, and their model which produced results in-line with their expectations.

They picked their own model. What did you think would happen?

That was very influential. NASA/GISS is regarded as the “Gold Standard” in Climate Science. It became an accepted FACT that this would be the “expected” amount of “Arctic Amplification”.

High-Latitude Climate Warming Amplification should ONLY be “close to a factor of 2”.

Here’s what that would look like according to the Moderate Climate Paradigm.

The Moderate Climate Model indicated that adding +2C of HEAT at the Equator SHOULD only warm the North Pole and High Arctic by about +4C.

This is the ASSUMPTION that our Climate Models have been using for the last 25 years. That’s a FACT.

Fact #7 — In 2022 it was SHOWN that WARMING in the High Arctic has been about FOUR TIMES as FAST as the rest of the World.

The High Arctic has warmed +4C on average since 1979. Parts of Siberia have warmed +7C.

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)

We didn’t PLAN for this. Because the THEORIES and MODELS of the Moderates ASSUMED that it wouldn’t happen this way, and WE BELIEVED THEM.

Abstract

In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.

“Numerous studies (based on MODELS) report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average.”

Here we show, by using several observational datasets (REAL MEASUREMENTS) which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature.

“We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations.”

“The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979.”

Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.

“The climate models (OF THE MODERATES) systematically tend to underestimate the amplification” and the High Arctic is WARMING CATASTROPHICALLY FAST. Those are FACTS.

Fact #8 — The ARGO float network has REVOLUTIONIZED “Climate Science”. For the first time, the ENERGY flow in the Climate System can be QUANTIFIED.

These floats are how we KNOW “exactly”, HOW HOT the Global Ocean got in December 2023.

One of the problems in the field of Climate Science, one that the Moderates and Techno-Optimists have been able to DEFEND their “crap theories” with, has been the lack of MEASUREMENTS.

We haven’t been able to REALLY say, with “certainty”, how much the Oceans were ‘heating up”. Climate Deniers and the Moderates have taken advantage of that uncertainty for DECADES.

They “got away with it” in 1998 because NO ONE KNEW “for sure” how much the High Arctic had warmed. They have now been proven to be TOTALLY WRONG.

The ARGO floats have found +40% MORE ENERGY in the Oceans than the MODELS of the Moderates PREDICTED.

We KNOW how much ENERGY is going into the Global Ocean and how much it’s WARMING each year. That’s a FACT.

Fact #9 — The AMERICAN Science Agencies are “underestimating” warming by about -40%.

The Americans are still using “guesstimates” about the Climate System dating back to the 70's.

They are still using “guesstimates” about the INTENSITY of Polar Amplification.

They are still rejecting the use of paleoclimate data as “speculative”.

They are still using MODELS that say WARMING at 560ppm of CO2 should be “no more” than +3C.

That’s WHY this is HAPPENING.

Which of these Agencies has been “captured” by the Fossil Fuel Industry do you think? The OFFICIAL American figures, which were once the ‘Gold Standard’ in Climate Science are being SHOWN to be SYSTEMATICALLY UNDERSTATING Warming by about -40%.

Some independent analysts are trying to “bridge the gap” by saying that REALITY is probably “somewhere in the middle”. You can see that on this estimate of the HIRO COUNT of ENERGY going into the Oceans.

HIROS per second correlates well with the yearly amount of Zetta Joules added to the Global Oceans. In 2009/2010 it was about 5 Hiros per second and about +5ZJ added to the Oceans. Here, Eliot Jacobson is “splitting the difference” between the NASA/NOAA +9ZJ and the Chinese IAP +15ZJ and estimating the 2023 Hiro Count as +12 Hiros/second. This isn’t really what’s happening.

The ARGO floats indicate that the Global Ocean warmed about +15 Zetta Joules in 2023.

The Americans are saying it was ACTUALLY ONLY +9ZJ. About -40% less than the “raw data” indicate. That’s a FACT.

ONE of them is WRONG.

The CONSEQUENCES of this FAILURE of American Science are going to be CATASTROPHIC for the REST of the WORLD.

Climate State last seen around 4–8 million years ago known as the “Pliocene”. The world was a warmer place then. This was a +2C world. We will reach this by 2035 AT THE LATEST now.

That’s ALSO a FACT.

End Part Two.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

— rc 01252024

Personal Notes:

Notes:

The CLIMATE CRISIS has ALREADY STARTED.

This is happening “as we speak”. It has nothing to do with “current” emissions or future ones. We ALREADY “screwed up”.

China, “knowing it was coming years in advance”. That/s an “en passant” moment of advantage for them.

CHINA doesn/t want to have a TRUMPIST America “in charge” of the global response to the Climate Crisis. They don’t trust us.

After all, this was an AMERICAN FAILURE. We Fuck’ed the WORLD with our GREED.

In 1977 Carter gets the “Church Memorandum” warning of up to +5C of warming.

In 1979 at Woods Hole a 5 day “Climate Summit” is held. Three factions are “at the table”.

The ALARMISTS — James Hansen.

The MODERATES — (Today’s Micheal Mann, David Wallace-Wells, or Hannah Ritche).

and

The OIL INDUSTRY — they had the BEST ‘Climate Science’ available.

They broke into two camps and made different forecasts.

The Moderates + Oil Industry forecast +2C to +3C of warming at 560ppm of CO2.

The Alarmists forecast +4C to +6C of warming at 560ppm.

The Republicans went with the Moderates in the 80’s and haven’t looked back since.

The Moderates have ALWAYS calculated the effect of CO2 as being -40% less than the Alarmists.

Last year +15 Zetta Joules of HEAT were added to the Oceans. About 3.4 Hiroshima Class Atomic Bombs worth for EVERY SQUARE mile of Ocean in the WORLD.

This is not a GUESS, it’s an EXACT Measurement. There are around 4,000 ARGO floats in the Oceans.

We KNOW how much HEAT went into the Oceans in 2023, it was +15 ZJ.

NOAA and GISS say they calculate it as +9 ZJ. Based on “models”.

About -40% less than the ACTUAL MEASUREMENTS show.

The CHINESE Institutes reported the +15 ZJ measurement.

The American ones reported a LIE.

This is going to have geopolitical consequences.