Your point on the spectrum that you label "Crim" might better be labelled "Realists", or more accurately "Hopeful optimists".
We passed Apocalyptic two decades ago. I am pretty sure we passed the point of no return back before Carter was elected President. And I believe the sign post back then said something about last exit before the mass extinction, as well as - next stop 'the end of everything you know'.
The atmosphere and the oceans are continuing to destabilize.
In the atmosphere, the loss of the bulk of the thermal driving force at the north pole with the melted ice, combined with the overheated oceans and equator, have reduced the strength of the polar vortex (the northern jet) and the main jet stream at the Hadley-Ferrell junction. As a result, we are having massive excursions of heat moving north and cold moving south.
This peaks with the thermodynamic breakdown of the Earth's heat engine, and the chaotic and rapid shift to a unicellular atmospheric circulation. With that not only do we have weather chaos, we also have loss of the rain bands at 45 north. That leads to loss of agriculture.
Funny thing, people are addicted to eating. When they go without food for months at a time, they tend to become peckish snd grumpy.
Plus they have this tremendous addiction to water. Take that away and the whining just gets obnoxious.
Combine this with the collapse of the AMOC and the Pacific oscillation, and things get a bit concerning.
Large anoxic zones and vortexes develop in the oceans and at coastal margins and shorelines. Then fishermen get annoyed when the oceans die like that and it bites into their profit margins,
The folks living on the coasts won't be very pleasant either, what with all their grumbling about rotten eggs as the oceans die and rot, and the purple bacteria produce prodigious quantities of hydrogen sulfide rather than oxygen. They also get really upset about the whale carcasses littering the beach.
Your ever so generous allowance of 12 years before things get seriously troubled is a bit annoying. That is sooner than my expected lifespan expires. I was planning on a graceful exit before the excrement encountered the rotating air mover.
Oh well. Maybe the pandemic-that-shall-not-be-named may aid us.Cough. Cough. It's just a cold.
Thank you so much for your ongoing efforts...This is indeed hard news to hear, see and understand...But I would rather be in possession of some measure of truth than be blissfully ignorant...Like a terminal patient, I want to know the prognosis and likely progression so I can prepare my consciousness and maintain equanimity until the end, however bitter it may be. All the best to you Richard...My finances are bleak, but should they improve I will reup to paid...
I appreciate that but don't stress about it. This isn't a "financial" project. I have "enough". Mostly I was just hoping to cover my subscription costs to various sources and paywalled data troves.
I am GRATEFUL to my readers for your time and attention.
I know how precious that is, and I try not to waste it.
“The basic “pattern” is clear, two to three years of WARMING are followed by two or three “cool down” La Nina years.” …. This is like how you described it as a step-ratchet pattern in your video interview. Great interview, and thanks for another important analysis.
Listen up . . . I just read this a second time and I think a total collapse by 2035 is optimistic.
Really. I moved from Naples Florida to Tallahasse Florida because I could see where coastal cities are going. Down. In Naples there are literally thousands of million dollar plus homes. They need insurance to maintain those values because banks won't lend uninsured. Soon there will be no insurance company willing to write policies in a place like that.
Bam! Your five million dollar home is now worth only two million cause only cash buyers are there. Miami, Ft Lauderdale, you can pretty much see where just the insurance angle will destroy billions of value. That's not counting what the storms will do.
Think of all the little angles like that in every area of the economy. We won't make it 10 more years. We're gonna die broke!
The "meltdown" of the Florida real estate market is "coming soon".
U.S. Senate launches investigation into Florida's Citizens Insurance
The committee raises questions about climate risks and whether the federal government could be asked to bail out Citizens if a major hurricane hits
Dec 1st 2023
The U.S. Senate Budget Committee on Thursday requested a wide range of documents and information from Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp., raising questions about climate risks and whether the federal government could be asked to bail out Citizens if a major hurricane hits.
Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., sent a letter to Gov. Ron DeSantis, state Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky and Citizens President and CEO Tim Cerio requesting information about issues such as models showing Citizens’ potential financial exposure to “worst case hurricane scenarios” and models about Citizens’ ability to pay claims.
The letter cited massive growth in the number of Citizens’ policies in recent years and a state law that would allow Citizens to collect what are known as “assessments” from insurance policyholders throughout the state — including policyholders who are not Citizens customers — to pay claims.
CATCH THAT LAST BIT.
Even if you are NOT a policyholder with the state insurance plan, you will still HAVE to PAY if they have a "shortfall".
If you just "live in Florida" you will have to pay an "assessment" if the "undercapitalized" STATE RUN Insurance Company goes broke.
I have the finances to survive uninsured because I paid cash for the house and there will be no flooding in Tallahassee, we are 250 feet above sea level. New roof and water damage, maybe $100,000 max, I can handle that without insurance. I'm thinking prices will actually increase in places like Tally.
What I paid for my current home is only a down-payment in Naples and I've made $190,000 in increased value in 4 years according to Realtor Dot Com.
Your point on the spectrum that you label "Crim" might better be labelled "Realists", or more accurately "Hopeful optimists".
We passed Apocalyptic two decades ago. I am pretty sure we passed the point of no return back before Carter was elected President. And I believe the sign post back then said something about last exit before the mass extinction, as well as - next stop 'the end of everything you know'.
The atmosphere and the oceans are continuing to destabilize.
In the atmosphere, the loss of the bulk of the thermal driving force at the north pole with the melted ice, combined with the overheated oceans and equator, have reduced the strength of the polar vortex (the northern jet) and the main jet stream at the Hadley-Ferrell junction. As a result, we are having massive excursions of heat moving north and cold moving south.
This peaks with the thermodynamic breakdown of the Earth's heat engine, and the chaotic and rapid shift to a unicellular atmospheric circulation. With that not only do we have weather chaos, we also have loss of the rain bands at 45 north. That leads to loss of agriculture.
Funny thing, people are addicted to eating. When they go without food for months at a time, they tend to become peckish snd grumpy.
Plus they have this tremendous addiction to water. Take that away and the whining just gets obnoxious.
Combine this with the collapse of the AMOC and the Pacific oscillation, and things get a bit concerning.
Large anoxic zones and vortexes develop in the oceans and at coastal margins and shorelines. Then fishermen get annoyed when the oceans die like that and it bites into their profit margins,
The folks living on the coasts won't be very pleasant either, what with all their grumbling about rotten eggs as the oceans die and rot, and the purple bacteria produce prodigious quantities of hydrogen sulfide rather than oxygen. They also get really upset about the whale carcasses littering the beach.
Your ever so generous allowance of 12 years before things get seriously troubled is a bit annoying. That is sooner than my expected lifespan expires. I was planning on a graceful exit before the excrement encountered the rotating air mover.
Oh well. Maybe the pandemic-that-shall-not-be-named may aid us.Cough. Cough. It's just a cold.
We're all gonna die!!!!
Thank you so much for your ongoing efforts...This is indeed hard news to hear, see and understand...But I would rather be in possession of some measure of truth than be blissfully ignorant...Like a terminal patient, I want to know the prognosis and likely progression so I can prepare my consciousness and maintain equanimity until the end, however bitter it may be. All the best to you Richard...My finances are bleak, but should they improve I will reup to paid...
I appreciate that but don't stress about it. This isn't a "financial" project. I have "enough". Mostly I was just hoping to cover my subscription costs to various sources and paywalled data troves.
I am GRATEFUL to my readers for your time and attention.
I know how precious that is, and I try not to waste it.
“The basic “pattern” is clear, two to three years of WARMING are followed by two or three “cool down” La Nina years.” …. This is like how you described it as a step-ratchet pattern in your video interview. Great interview, and thanks for another important analysis.
Listen up . . . I just read this a second time and I think a total collapse by 2035 is optimistic.
Really. I moved from Naples Florida to Tallahasse Florida because I could see where coastal cities are going. Down. In Naples there are literally thousands of million dollar plus homes. They need insurance to maintain those values because banks won't lend uninsured. Soon there will be no insurance company willing to write policies in a place like that.
Bam! Your five million dollar home is now worth only two million cause only cash buyers are there. Miami, Ft Lauderdale, you can pretty much see where just the insurance angle will destroy billions of value. That's not counting what the storms will do.
Think of all the little angles like that in every area of the economy. We won't make it 10 more years. We're gonna die broke!
The "meltdown" of the Florida real estate market is "coming soon".
U.S. Senate launches investigation into Florida's Citizens Insurance
The committee raises questions about climate risks and whether the federal government could be asked to bail out Citizens if a major hurricane hits
Dec 1st 2023
The U.S. Senate Budget Committee on Thursday requested a wide range of documents and information from Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp., raising questions about climate risks and whether the federal government could be asked to bail out Citizens if a major hurricane hits.
Committee Chairman Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., sent a letter to Gov. Ron DeSantis, state Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky and Citizens President and CEO Tim Cerio requesting information about issues such as models showing Citizens’ potential financial exposure to “worst case hurricane scenarios” and models about Citizens’ ability to pay claims.
The letter cited massive growth in the number of Citizens’ policies in recent years and a state law that would allow Citizens to collect what are known as “assessments” from insurance policyholders throughout the state — including policyholders who are not Citizens customers — to pay claims.
CATCH THAT LAST BIT.
Even if you are NOT a policyholder with the state insurance plan, you will still HAVE to PAY if they have a "shortfall".
If you just "live in Florida" you will have to pay an "assessment" if the "undercapitalized" STATE RUN Insurance Company goes broke.
I would FLEE NOW.
Alabama? Where should I go? This is my problem . . . everybody's problem really, where will I not be jumping out of the pan into the fire?
I have the finances to survive uninsured because I paid cash for the house and there will be no flooding in Tallahassee, we are 250 feet above sea level. New roof and water damage, maybe $100,000 max, I can handle that without insurance. I'm thinking prices will actually increase in places like Tally.
What I paid for my current home is only a down-payment in Naples and I've made $190,000 in increased value in 4 years according to Realtor Dot Com.
Realistically, when the shir really hits the fan those fake profits will be gone, but I can at least survive and stay in a home that's fairly safe.
"The LOWEST forecasts in this chart are GISS and NOAA" - which agencies produced the alarmist forecasts, and what do those models predict for 2024?