All the talk of 50/50 chances of blah de blah is rendered 100% moot when we take our unchanging nature and behaviour into account.
It’s beyond ridiculous to pretend anyone would ever make the necessary sacrifices, plus the rest of us not taking advantage of it. Why on Earth would we suddenly start doing that now? If your answer is anything close to “because if we don’t, we’ll all die,” I’m afraid you’re not fully acknowledging just how maladaptive we humans are.
Yes, none of us really digest we/I’ll die, we all reckon on “others” dying. Kierkegaard (Danish philosopher) was right back in the time of emerging newspapers, saying: most of us have no capacity to consider humans distant from us (in geography and I’d add in time).
The statistical chances of me/you being part of a (IFoA noted) Decimation event (800m deaths in a year) is very high.
That last graph really shows how very far out we have gone in such a very short time.
Thanks to the CARBON PULSE we seem to have turned up the thermostate until the knob came loose in our hands. Now we can only sit around and wait for the room to heat up above and beyond.
Excellent info and well presented as always, Richard. Thank you.
Increasingly I read these posts on the basis of my own life expectancy, and I try to ignore the consequences beyond that. It is my coping mechanism - I will be dead anyway and none of it is in my control, so no point in worrying about it. I suspect many of us do the same.
One graph I haven't seen is the consequences of a collapse in the population of humans on the longer term climate heating. The difference in CO2(e) emissions between the population growing to 10 billion by 2050, or collapsing to 6 billion, would seem to be considerable in the longer term.
Of course, there is so much doubt about timing; for example, if AMOC turns off then northern Europe freezes and its food systems collapse, that affects some of the more profligate 'Western' economies with a consequentially greater reduction of industrial and per-capita emissions.
Yet I also think we are way beyond that point where a few million less people will make any difference at all. The CO2 is already in the sea and air, the methane is already being triggered, the trees are already burning and the Amazon basin drying. Now we are all just along for the ride.
And all that leads me to wonder if I'm overthinking things. Maybe those people that ignore 99% or climate issues and the fears and scares have it right. Live one's own life, watch the weather forecast for the day and take a sun hat or a brolly, as required. I plan to do more of that and spend less time worrying about it all.
I never imagined I might one day say this, but perhaps sometimes it is best not to know too much.
We have to fight for our children's and grandchildren's sakes. Sure the next 500 years may be intolerably hot, but if right now by our efforts we can reduce that number to 450 years, it will be worth it
I admire your optimism in the face of the facts. The current climate changes in train will last for at least 1,000 years, and by the time this generation has done, it may be 5,000 years. If any humans survive that, they will be living as animals, as survivors, with no technology and little if any civilisation remaining. If they find something from this current age, it will be as from outer space, or from the gods, or cargo cult.
And you say we have to fight. Fight for what, exactly? To end the use of fossil fuels? The stop all governments choosing economic growth, and stop democratic citizens voting for it? To make people stop wanting and having children? To stop people flying on holiday or using cars? Or using air conditioning on increasingly hot days?
What about you? Have you given up your car? Never get on a plane? Have you stopped shopping in supermarkets and instead are growing all your own food? Have you educated your children and grandchildren to do the same? Are they listening, or would they prefer a Big Mack and fries with their friends?
I am not trying to be mean. I am simply saying that reality might suck, but it IS reality! This society will not survive because it is based upon fundamentals that will not exist in 50 years time. And almost no-one wants to change it.
You're not being mean ALRA, and I agree with you. The 500/450 figure was just chosen as a representative number. Personally I'm thinking in terms of geologic time scales. If you ever have time, you might tour my future climate fiction pieces on my own LUD site. I've written about an uninhabitable 150°f desert Earth that only genetically modified ant/human hybrids can find livable. All your other points in your comment to me are sound.
born too late to secure wealth or property. born too early to get rich on youtube, and have too much dignity to make money selling porn. on the "bright side" I DO get to see the near-term collaspe of the human race. I find self worth in helping people. I have a grim task ahead- assist and protect my friends and family to the end. I will not get a retirement. I will not get peace. I will see famine, plague and war. I feel absolute terror for my neices and nephews and the world a 6 year old will have to face. I'm teaching them how to camp right now- being a capable and resourceful climate refugee will be an important life skill learned from ol' uncle andrew. I will not go gently into the night. I will be 65 in 2050 if we make it that far...
Andrew, I won't be around in 2050 since I'm 77 now, so I need not worry. But I do since we are all in interlinked communities that persist through time and it is worth worrying about what will happen to them and the people we know as well as those we don't.
I can’t believe I’m alive for the end. Or will likely get close at least. What a scary wild ride. I hope my soul is learning all the lessons because I’m terrified.
I like today's impressive format and the highlighting of "their worst case is now their best case." Kind of succinct and devastating.
As this Climatastrophe plays out, I do find less to finger-wag about. It's our jobs as sentient human beings to discover the truth about any given situation, to discard naive trust when unwarranted, to call out malefactors but not wait around for them to be apprehended by the federales or grovel out abject apologia. I don;t really care what Zeke Hausfather has to say about the climate devastation that he used to dismiss.
Yes, we were lied to. But the sky is full of victims' laments against the liars. Those in power could not have spoken the truth even paid to do so.
This is fantastically helpful. I took some time and chewed through the links. As a Canadian, I know that we are not doing enough. As a neighbour to the US, unfortunately, at the moment it is pretty clear that the US intends to do nothing. I suspect this is because of the influence of the corporate world, and perhaps also because the wealthiest individuals all somehow believe their wealth will somehow make them immune (or perhaps protected) from the inevitable cataclysmic changes.
It angers me that we are electrifying at such a stately pace. There isn’t anybody that argues credibly that electrification will not the ultimate mechanism for powering the world. Yet we in Canada are electrifying at a snail’s pace. And our NA vehicle manufacturers all electrified the largest and most expensive models in their respective product ranges, which may have made brief economic sense but ensured that vehicle electrification is only for the wealthy few. Then we banned the importation of the smaller and less expensive offshore EVs, which was admittedly protectionist but was also astonishingly stupid if we really desire to intensify our path to electrification.
I’d also note that while we all are focussed on what we might do to reduce the growth of emissions, we are collectively not even thinking about how we might cope in the event we don’t succeed. Twenty or thirty years from now the world might be very different. Major cities can survive without food deliveries for days, not months. Shut off tractor-trailer and train deliveries of food to my home city of Toronto and we’d all be scrambling for food in just a few days. Somehow we don’t think about it, perhaps because our political class are so focussed on the next electoral competition and their time horizon is just beyond the tips of their noses.
All the talk of 50/50 chances of blah de blah is rendered 100% moot when we take our unchanging nature and behaviour into account.
It’s beyond ridiculous to pretend anyone would ever make the necessary sacrifices, plus the rest of us not taking advantage of it. Why on Earth would we suddenly start doing that now? If your answer is anything close to “because if we don’t, we’ll all die,” I’m afraid you’re not fully acknowledging just how maladaptive we humans are.
Completely agree, Gnug315.
Yes, none of us really digest we/I’ll die, we all reckon on “others” dying. Kierkegaard (Danish philosopher) was right back in the time of emerging newspapers, saying: most of us have no capacity to consider humans distant from us (in geography and I’d add in time).
The statistical chances of me/you being part of a (IFoA noted) Decimation event (800m deaths in a year) is very high.
Well, this sucks.
That last graph really shows how very far out we have gone in such a very short time.
Thanks to the CARBON PULSE we seem to have turned up the thermostate until the knob came loose in our hands. Now we can only sit around and wait for the room to heat up above and beyond.
Excellent info and well presented as always, Richard. Thank you.
Increasingly I read these posts on the basis of my own life expectancy, and I try to ignore the consequences beyond that. It is my coping mechanism - I will be dead anyway and none of it is in my control, so no point in worrying about it. I suspect many of us do the same.
One graph I haven't seen is the consequences of a collapse in the population of humans on the longer term climate heating. The difference in CO2(e) emissions between the population growing to 10 billion by 2050, or collapsing to 6 billion, would seem to be considerable in the longer term.
Of course, there is so much doubt about timing; for example, if AMOC turns off then northern Europe freezes and its food systems collapse, that affects some of the more profligate 'Western' economies with a consequentially greater reduction of industrial and per-capita emissions.
Yet I also think we are way beyond that point where a few million less people will make any difference at all. The CO2 is already in the sea and air, the methane is already being triggered, the trees are already burning and the Amazon basin drying. Now we are all just along for the ride.
And all that leads me to wonder if I'm overthinking things. Maybe those people that ignore 99% or climate issues and the fears and scares have it right. Live one's own life, watch the weather forecast for the day and take a sun hat or a brolly, as required. I plan to do more of that and spend less time worrying about it all.
I never imagined I might one day say this, but perhaps sometimes it is best not to know too much.
We have to fight for our children's and grandchildren's sakes. Sure the next 500 years may be intolerably hot, but if right now by our efforts we can reduce that number to 450 years, it will be worth it
I admire your optimism in the face of the facts. The current climate changes in train will last for at least 1,000 years, and by the time this generation has done, it may be 5,000 years. If any humans survive that, they will be living as animals, as survivors, with no technology and little if any civilisation remaining. If they find something from this current age, it will be as from outer space, or from the gods, or cargo cult.
And you say we have to fight. Fight for what, exactly? To end the use of fossil fuels? The stop all governments choosing economic growth, and stop democratic citizens voting for it? To make people stop wanting and having children? To stop people flying on holiday or using cars? Or using air conditioning on increasingly hot days?
What about you? Have you given up your car? Never get on a plane? Have you stopped shopping in supermarkets and instead are growing all your own food? Have you educated your children and grandchildren to do the same? Are they listening, or would they prefer a Big Mack and fries with their friends?
I am not trying to be mean. I am simply saying that reality might suck, but it IS reality! This society will not survive because it is based upon fundamentals that will not exist in 50 years time. And almost no-one wants to change it.
You're not being mean ALRA, and I agree with you. The 500/450 figure was just chosen as a representative number. Personally I'm thinking in terms of geologic time scales. If you ever have time, you might tour my future climate fiction pieces on my own LUD site. I've written about an uninhabitable 150°f desert Earth that only genetically modified ant/human hybrids can find livable. All your other points in your comment to me are sound.
Yeah that's fine until a climate catastrophe hits you and your community. Burying your head in the sand isn't wise.
born too late to secure wealth or property. born too early to get rich on youtube, and have too much dignity to make money selling porn. on the "bright side" I DO get to see the near-term collaspe of the human race. I find self worth in helping people. I have a grim task ahead- assist and protect my friends and family to the end. I will not get a retirement. I will not get peace. I will see famine, plague and war. I feel absolute terror for my neices and nephews and the world a 6 year old will have to face. I'm teaching them how to camp right now- being a capable and resourceful climate refugee will be an important life skill learned from ol' uncle andrew. I will not go gently into the night. I will be 65 in 2050 if we make it that far...
Andrew, I won't be around in 2050 since I'm 77 now, so I need not worry. But I do since we are all in interlinked communities that persist through time and it is worth worrying about what will happen to them and the people we know as well as those we don't.
I hate the term "carbon budget" as it implies that we still have a ways before we hit a danger point. We seem well past that.
I can’t believe I’m alive for the end. Or will likely get close at least. What a scary wild ride. I hope my soul is learning all the lessons because I’m terrified.
Richard... even best case scenarios are horrifying. Frackin' gods forbid the worst case ones come about. So say we all. But I suspect they will.
Thanks for another article Richard Crim! 👏🏻👏🏻
I like today's impressive format and the highlighting of "their worst case is now their best case." Kind of succinct and devastating.
As this Climatastrophe plays out, I do find less to finger-wag about. It's our jobs as sentient human beings to discover the truth about any given situation, to discard naive trust when unwarranted, to call out malefactors but not wait around for them to be apprehended by the federales or grovel out abject apologia. I don;t really care what Zeke Hausfather has to say about the climate devastation that he used to dismiss.
Yes, we were lied to. But the sky is full of victims' laments against the liars. Those in power could not have spoken the truth even paid to do so.
Excellent essay and I've sent it to BlueSky.
This is fantastically helpful. I took some time and chewed through the links. As a Canadian, I know that we are not doing enough. As a neighbour to the US, unfortunately, at the moment it is pretty clear that the US intends to do nothing. I suspect this is because of the influence of the corporate world, and perhaps also because the wealthiest individuals all somehow believe their wealth will somehow make them immune (or perhaps protected) from the inevitable cataclysmic changes.
It angers me that we are electrifying at such a stately pace. There isn’t anybody that argues credibly that electrification will not the ultimate mechanism for powering the world. Yet we in Canada are electrifying at a snail’s pace. And our NA vehicle manufacturers all electrified the largest and most expensive models in their respective product ranges, which may have made brief economic sense but ensured that vehicle electrification is only for the wealthy few. Then we banned the importation of the smaller and less expensive offshore EVs, which was admittedly protectionist but was also astonishingly stupid if we really desire to intensify our path to electrification.
I’d also note that while we all are focussed on what we might do to reduce the growth of emissions, we are collectively not even thinking about how we might cope in the event we don’t succeed. Twenty or thirty years from now the world might be very different. Major cities can survive without food deliveries for days, not months. Shut off tractor-trailer and train deliveries of food to my home city of Toronto and we’d all be scrambling for food in just a few days. Somehow we don’t think about it, perhaps because our political class are so focussed on the next electoral competition and their time horizon is just beyond the tips of their noses.
I fear my kids and grandkids are fucked.