All the talk of 50/50 chances of blah de blah is rendered 100% moot when we take our unchanging nature and behaviour into account.
It’s beyond ridiculous to pretend anyone would ever make the necessary sacrifices, plus the rest of us not taking advantage of it. Why on Earth would we suddenly start doing that now? If your answer is anything close to “because if we don’t, we’ll all die,” I’m afraid you’re not fully acknowledging just how maladaptive we humans are.
Yes, none of us really digest we/I’ll die, we all reckon on “others” dying. Kierkegaard (Danish philosopher) was right back in the time of emerging newspapers, saying: most of us have no capacity to consider humans distant from us (in geography and I’d add in time).
The statistical chances of me/you being part of a (IFoA noted) Decimation event (800m deaths in a year) is very high.
That last graph really shows how very far out we have gone in such a very short time.
Thanks to the CARBON PULSE we seem to have turned up the thermostate until the knob came loose in our hands. Now we can only sit around and wait for the room to heat up above and beyond.
born too late to secure wealth or property. born too early to get rich on youtube, and have too much dignity to make money selling porn. on the "bright side" I DO get to see the near-term collaspe of the human race. I find self worth in helping people. I have a grim task ahead- assist and protect my friends and family to the end. I will not get a retirement. I will not get peace. I will see famine, plague and war. I feel absolute terror for my neices and nephews and the world a 6 year old will have to face. I'm teaching them how to camp right now- being a capable and resourceful climate refugee will be an important life skill learned from ol' uncle andrew. I will not go gently into the night. I will be 65 in 2050 if we make it that far...
Andrew, I won't be around in 2050 since I'm 77 now, so I need not worry. But I do since we are all in interlinked communities that persist through time and it is worth worrying about what will happen to them and the people we know as well as those we don't.
Excellent info and well presented as always, Richard. Thank you.
Increasingly I read these posts on the basis of my own life expectancy, and I try to ignore the consequences beyond that. It is my coping mechanism - I will be dead anyway and none of it is in my control, so no point in worrying about it. I suspect many of us do the same.
One graph I haven't seen is the consequences of a collapse in the population of humans on the longer term climate heating. The difference in CO2(e) emissions between the population growing to 10 billion by 2050, or collapsing to 6 billion, would seem to be considerable in the longer term.
Of course, there is so much doubt about timing; for example, if AMOC turns off then northern Europe freezes and its food systems collapse, that affects some of the more profligate 'Western' economies with a consequentially greater reduction of industrial and per-capita emissions.
Yet I also think we are way beyond that point where a few million less people will make any difference at all. The CO2 is already in the sea and air, the methane is already being triggered, the trees are already burning and the Amazon basin drying. Now we are all just along for the ride.
And all that leads me to wonder if I'm overthinking things. Maybe those people that ignore 99% or climate issues and the fears and scares have it right. Live one's own life, watch the weather forecast for the day and take a sun hat or a brolly, as required. I plan to do more of that and spend less time worrying about it all.
I never imagined I might one day say this, but perhaps sometimes it is best not to know too much.
We have to fight for our children's and grandchildren's sakes. Sure the next 500 years may be intolerably hot, but if right now by our efforts we can reduce that number to 450 years, it will be worth it
I admire your optimism in the face of the facts. The current climate changes in train will last for at least 1,000 years, and by the time this generation has done, it may be 5,000 years. If any humans survive that, they will be living as animals, as survivors, with no technology and little if any civilisation remaining. If they find something from this current age, it will be as from outer space, or from the gods, or cargo cult.
And you say we have to fight. Fight for what, exactly? To end the use of fossil fuels? The stop all governments choosing economic growth, and stop democratic citizens voting for it? To make people stop wanting and having children? To stop people flying on holiday or using cars? Or using air conditioning on increasingly hot days?
What about you? Have you given up your car? Never get on a plane? Have you stopped shopping in supermarkets and instead are growing all your own food? Have you educated your children and grandchildren to do the same? Are they listening, or would they prefer a Big Mack and fries with their friends?
I am not trying to be mean. I am simply saying that reality might suck, but it IS reality! This society will not survive because it is based upon fundamentals that will not exist in 50 years time. And almost no-one wants to change it.
You're not being mean ALRA, and I agree with you. The 500/450 figure was just chosen as a representative number. Personally I'm thinking in terms of geologic time scales. If you ever have time, you might tour my future climate fiction pieces on my own LUD site. I've written about an uninhabitable 150°f desert Earth that only genetically modified ant/human hybrids can find livable. All your other points in your comment to me are sound.
I can’t believe I’m alive for the end. Or will likely get close at least. What a scary wild ride. I hope my soul is learning all the lessons because I’m terrified.
I like today's impressive format and the highlighting of "their worst case is now their best case." Kind of succinct and devastating.
As this Climatastrophe plays out, I do find less to finger-wag about. It's our jobs as sentient human beings to discover the truth about any given situation, to discard naive trust when unwarranted, to call out malefactors but not wait around for them to be apprehended by the federales or grovel out abject apologia. I don;t really care what Zeke Hausfather has to say about the climate devastation that he used to dismiss.
Yes, we were lied to. But the sky is full of victims' laments against the liars. Those in power could not have spoken the truth even paid to do so.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
Earth is cooler with atmosphere/water vapor/30% albedo not warmer.
Ubiquitous RGHE heat balance graphics don't plus violate GAAP and LoT.
Kinetic heat transfer processes of contiguous atmospheric molecules render a surface BB impossible.
RGHE is bogus & CAGW is a scam!
FACTS & EVIDENCE:
FACT 1: Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the GHGs and the Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At Earth’s distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
That’s NOT what the RGHE theory says.
EVIDENCE:
RGHE theory says “288 K w – 255 K (-18 C) w/o = a 33 C colder ice ball Earth.” 255 K assumes w/o case keeps 30% albedo, an assumption akin to criminal fraud. Nobody agrees 288 K is GMST plus it was 15 C in 1896. 288 K is a physical surface measurement. 255 K is a S-B equilibrium calculation at ToA. Apples and potatoes.
Nikolov “Airless Celestial Bodies”
Kramm “Moon as test bed for Earth”
UCLA Diviner lunar mission data
JWST solar shield (391.7 K)
Sky Lab
ISS HVAC design for lit side of 250 F. (ISS web site)
Astronaut backpack life support w/ AC and cool water tubing underwear. (Space Discovery Center)
FACT 2: The GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from a surface radiating as a BB.
EVIDENCE:
According to TFK_bams09 atmospheric power flux balance, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must absorb an “extra” 396 BB/333 “back”/63 2nd net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a BB. These graphics contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors.
FACT 3: Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a near Black Body.
EVIDENCE:
As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
All the talk of 50/50 chances of blah de blah is rendered 100% moot when we take our unchanging nature and behaviour into account.
It’s beyond ridiculous to pretend anyone would ever make the necessary sacrifices, plus the rest of us not taking advantage of it. Why on Earth would we suddenly start doing that now? If your answer is anything close to “because if we don’t, we’ll all die,” I’m afraid you’re not fully acknowledging just how maladaptive we humans are.
Completely agree, Gnug315.
Yes, none of us really digest we/I’ll die, we all reckon on “others” dying. Kierkegaard (Danish philosopher) was right back in the time of emerging newspapers, saying: most of us have no capacity to consider humans distant from us (in geography and I’d add in time).
The statistical chances of me/you being part of a (IFoA noted) Decimation event (800m deaths in a year) is very high.
Well, this sucks.
That last graph really shows how very far out we have gone in such a very short time.
Thanks to the CARBON PULSE we seem to have turned up the thermostate until the knob came loose in our hands. Now we can only sit around and wait for the room to heat up above and beyond.
born too late to secure wealth or property. born too early to get rich on youtube, and have too much dignity to make money selling porn. on the "bright side" I DO get to see the near-term collaspe of the human race. I find self worth in helping people. I have a grim task ahead- assist and protect my friends and family to the end. I will not get a retirement. I will not get peace. I will see famine, plague and war. I feel absolute terror for my neices and nephews and the world a 6 year old will have to face. I'm teaching them how to camp right now- being a capable and resourceful climate refugee will be an important life skill learned from ol' uncle andrew. I will not go gently into the night. I will be 65 in 2050 if we make it that far...
Andrew, I won't be around in 2050 since I'm 77 now, so I need not worry. But I do since we are all in interlinked communities that persist through time and it is worth worrying about what will happen to them and the people we know as well as those we don't.
Excellent info and well presented as always, Richard. Thank you.
Increasingly I read these posts on the basis of my own life expectancy, and I try to ignore the consequences beyond that. It is my coping mechanism - I will be dead anyway and none of it is in my control, so no point in worrying about it. I suspect many of us do the same.
One graph I haven't seen is the consequences of a collapse in the population of humans on the longer term climate heating. The difference in CO2(e) emissions between the population growing to 10 billion by 2050, or collapsing to 6 billion, would seem to be considerable in the longer term.
Of course, there is so much doubt about timing; for example, if AMOC turns off then northern Europe freezes and its food systems collapse, that affects some of the more profligate 'Western' economies with a consequentially greater reduction of industrial and per-capita emissions.
Yet I also think we are way beyond that point where a few million less people will make any difference at all. The CO2 is already in the sea and air, the methane is already being triggered, the trees are already burning and the Amazon basin drying. Now we are all just along for the ride.
And all that leads me to wonder if I'm overthinking things. Maybe those people that ignore 99% or climate issues and the fears and scares have it right. Live one's own life, watch the weather forecast for the day and take a sun hat or a brolly, as required. I plan to do more of that and spend less time worrying about it all.
I never imagined I might one day say this, but perhaps sometimes it is best not to know too much.
We have to fight for our children's and grandchildren's sakes. Sure the next 500 years may be intolerably hot, but if right now by our efforts we can reduce that number to 450 years, it will be worth it
I admire your optimism in the face of the facts. The current climate changes in train will last for at least 1,000 years, and by the time this generation has done, it may be 5,000 years. If any humans survive that, they will be living as animals, as survivors, with no technology and little if any civilisation remaining. If they find something from this current age, it will be as from outer space, or from the gods, or cargo cult.
And you say we have to fight. Fight for what, exactly? To end the use of fossil fuels? The stop all governments choosing economic growth, and stop democratic citizens voting for it? To make people stop wanting and having children? To stop people flying on holiday or using cars? Or using air conditioning on increasingly hot days?
What about you? Have you given up your car? Never get on a plane? Have you stopped shopping in supermarkets and instead are growing all your own food? Have you educated your children and grandchildren to do the same? Are they listening, or would they prefer a Big Mack and fries with their friends?
I am not trying to be mean. I am simply saying that reality might suck, but it IS reality! This society will not survive because it is based upon fundamentals that will not exist in 50 years time. And almost no-one wants to change it.
You're not being mean ALRA, and I agree with you. The 500/450 figure was just chosen as a representative number. Personally I'm thinking in terms of geologic time scales. If you ever have time, you might tour my future climate fiction pieces on my own LUD site. I've written about an uninhabitable 150°f desert Earth that only genetically modified ant/human hybrids can find livable. All your other points in your comment to me are sound.
Yeah that's fine until a climate catastrophe hits you and your community. Burying your head in the sand isn't wise.
I can’t believe I’m alive for the end. Or will likely get close at least. What a scary wild ride. I hope my soul is learning all the lessons because I’m terrified.
I hate the term "carbon budget" as it implies that we still have a ways before we hit a danger point. We seem well past that.
Richard... even best case scenarios are horrifying. Frackin' gods forbid the worst case ones come about. So say we all. But I suspect they will.
Thanks for another article Richard Crim! 👏🏻👏🏻
I like today's impressive format and the highlighting of "their worst case is now their best case." Kind of succinct and devastating.
As this Climatastrophe plays out, I do find less to finger-wag about. It's our jobs as sentient human beings to discover the truth about any given situation, to discard naive trust when unwarranted, to call out malefactors but not wait around for them to be apprehended by the federales or grovel out abject apologia. I don;t really care what Zeke Hausfather has to say about the climate devastation that he used to dismiss.
Yes, we were lied to. But the sky is full of victims' laments against the liars. Those in power could not have spoken the truth even paid to do so.
Excellent essay and I've sent it to BlueSky.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
ABSTRACT:
Earth is cooler with atmosphere/water vapor/30% albedo not warmer.
Ubiquitous RGHE heat balance graphics don't plus violate GAAP and LoT.
Kinetic heat transfer processes of contiguous atmospheric molecules render a surface BB impossible.
RGHE is bogus & CAGW is a scam!
FACTS & EVIDENCE:
FACT 1: Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the GHGs and the Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At Earth’s distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
That’s NOT what the RGHE theory says.
EVIDENCE:
RGHE theory says “288 K w – 255 K (-18 C) w/o = a 33 C colder ice ball Earth.” 255 K assumes w/o case keeps 30% albedo, an assumption akin to criminal fraud. Nobody agrees 288 K is GMST plus it was 15 C in 1896. 288 K is a physical surface measurement. 255 K is a S-B equilibrium calculation at ToA. Apples and potatoes.
Nikolov “Airless Celestial Bodies”
Kramm “Moon as test bed for Earth”
UCLA Diviner lunar mission data
JWST solar shield (391.7 K)
Sky Lab
ISS HVAC design for lit side of 250 F. (ISS web site)
Astronaut backpack life support w/ AC and cool water tubing underwear. (Space Discovery Center)
FACT 2: The GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from a surface radiating as a BB.
EVIDENCE:
According to TFK_bams09 atmospheric power flux balance, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must absorb an “extra” 396 BB/333 “back”/63 2nd net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a BB. These graphics contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors.
FACT 3: Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a near Black Body.
EVIDENCE:
As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
For the experimental write up see:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
Search: Bruges group “boiling water pot”
CONCLUSION:
No RGHE, no GHG warming, no CAGW or mankind/CO2 driven climate change.
BSME CU ‘78
ACRONYMS & DEFINITIONS
RGHE: Radiative GreenHouse Effect
GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
LoT: Laws of Thermodynamics
BB: Black Body: A thermodynamic system that absorbs ALL incoming energy and emits ALL that energy by radiation alone. Only possible in a vacuum.
CAGW: Catastrophic Anthropomorphic Global Warming
GHGs: GreenHouse Gases, all of them including water vapor
K: Celsius degree units on the Kelvin scale used for serious science (No such thang as a Kelvin unit)
hot^3: hot cubed, i.e. hot*hot*hot
cold^3: cold cubed, i.e. cold*cold*cold
albedo: Ice, snow, clouds, etc. that reflect incoming solar radiation thereby cooling the Earth
C: Celsius degree units on the Celsius scale
UCLA: Univ of Ca LA
JWST: James Webb Space Telescope
HVAC: Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning
F: degrees Fahrenheit on the F scale. Not useful for formal science.
ISS: International Space Station
Space Discovery Center: Colorado Springs
TFK Trenberth-Fasullo-Kiehl, UCAR climate scientists responsible for GHE budget concept
UCAR: Univ of CO Atmos Research
SURFRAD: NOAA network of stations that measure the surface radiation budget and aerosols over the Earth’s land surface.
LWIR: Long Wave Infra-Red radiation.
CO2: Carbon Dioxide
BSME: Bachelor of Science Mechanical Engineering
CU: University of Colorado, Boulder