The Crisis Report - 108
There is a LOT of “uncertainty” in Climate Science right now.
Where do you think the SST will at in December?
If you think 2025 will finish about where 2015 peaked and 2024 finished, then you are mainstream. It’s what the IGCC report is forecasting.
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the…
Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely…essd.copernicus.org
It got some press. Which, as usual normalized/minimized the increasingly “divorced from reality” climate predictions of the mainstream faction in climate science.
Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come
A team of 60 international scientists report that by early 2028 society will have emitted enough greenhouse gases that…apnews.com
It starts with a DIRE warning.
“Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable”
The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not.
The scientists calculate that by 2028 there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50–50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times.
That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.
TRANSLATION: They are saying,
We are on track to “burn through” the remaining carbon budget that gave us a 50/50 shot of warming being less-than +1.5°C in just 3 more years. After that, all additional CO2 added to the atmosphere will increase the “certainty” that we will hit the number.
A number, which, using a 20 year rolling average, we could be CERTAIN we had crossed as early as 2040! Providing temperatures average higher than +1.5°C for the NEXT 15 YEARS.
That's when we could “OFFICIALLY” cross the +1.5°C of warming line.
FUNCTIONALLY we will probably cross the +1.5°C (sustained) line during the next five years. In the recent WMO recent.
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It…wmo.int
They stated:
80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record
86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than +1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average
70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025–2029 will be more than +1.5 °C
The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850–1900.
The odds are that FUNCTIONALLY we will be at +1.5°C over baseline by 2030 according to mainstream climate science.
They predict the Rate of Warming going forward will be about +0.27°C per decade.
“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster, We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”
Stated study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth.
The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade.
SO, Mainstream Climate Science is forecasting +2°C over baseline will FUNCTIONALLY, not “Officially” but “functionally”, happen around 2050.
+1.5°C over baseline around 2030. Then, +0.27°C per decade for 20 more years.
MEANS +2°C (functionally) of warming over baseline around 2050.
That's the MAINSTREAM forecast.
I think it should be viewed as “best case”.
Not to be “alarmist” but consider these forecasts from 2020.
These maps are from a series of articles in 2020 by the New York Times and Pro Publica on Climate Change and its probable consequences.
A +2°C world by 2050 was considered the WORST CASE as recently as 2020.
Now, it’s the mainstream view of where we will “probably”, “functionally”, but NOT “officially” be at by 2050.
Things have gotten that much WORSE in JUST FIVE YEARS. The “worst case” scenario of 2020 is now the “best case” scenario of 2025.
THESE ARE THE MAINSTREAM “OFFICIAL” NUMBERS.
The “risk management experts”, aka the insurance industry, think this is NOT going to be good for us.
Their estimates are:
Global Warming limited to +2°C by 2050 = approximately -10% decline in global population (800 million deaths).
Global Warming of +2°C or more by 2050 = approximately -20% decline in global population (2 billion deaths).
What the IGCC report is not ACTUALLY coming out and telling you directly is that.
This is the “best case” by 2050. This is the Moderate faction “optimistic” forecast.
I think it's going to be a LOT faster and much worse than the mainstream forecasts. These are VERY “optimistic” numbers.
Their numbers are based on a LOW estimate for climate sensitivity or 2XCO2 (IE. how much warming can we expect at 560ppmCO2). Reality is probably going to be a great deal higher. Still,
The BEST CASE “official” forecasts now imply up to 20% global population “dieback” by 2050.
THAT’S WHAT THE MAINSTREAM SAYS NOW.
Things are starting to get WORSE more quickly now. Even the “optimistic” forecasts are starting to seem apocalyptic.
That's my “take” on this report.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 062325
Addendum:
For an excellent analysis and presentation of the IGCC report see this piece on Substack:
The 1.5°C Chimera Is Over: We'll Burn Through the Remaining Carbon Budget by 2027 From apex predator to prisoner of our own heat…rickylanusse.substack.com
All the talk of 50/50 chances of blah de blah is rendered 100% moot when we take our unchanging nature and behaviour into account.
It’s beyond ridiculous to pretend anyone would ever make the necessary sacrifices, plus the rest of us not taking advantage of it. Why on Earth would we suddenly start doing that now? If your answer is anything close to “because if we don’t, we’ll all die,” I’m afraid you’re not fully acknowledging just how maladaptive we humans are.
Well, this sucks.
That last graph really shows how very far out we have gone in such a very short time.
Thanks to the CARBON PULSE we seem to have turned up the thermostate until the knob came loose in our hands. Now we can only sit around and wait for the room to heat up above and beyond.