Thank you, Richard, for doing the hard work required to keep your subscribers informed on this critical subject. None of it makes me happy, but at least I have a better sense of what perilous times we have entered into. I feel truly sad for the children who will live in such challenging times for all life on earth. Parents of the lovely children can’t really express to their offspring how bad things will be for them because it would be dampening hope and joy. We are locked into hope for abundance while also trying to fight rising greenhouse gases. It seems to me that the squeeze is going to be intense and probably lead us rapidly into destructive wars, like the one just started in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Maybe it will be contained or maybe it won’t. But if destructive climate events are rapidly spiraling to greater intensity it also seems likely that our human emotions and actions will also spiral outward to greater levels of destruction across all realms of economics, politics, and social interaction.
I just attended some teams where they where debating about the IPCC Models. The sneaky, arrogant comment "leave that to the climate scientists" was kinda odd as they seemed to be wanting to diversify the modeling community at the same time when I asked about the CO2e, hit house earth models and the debated Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (Mann vs. Hansen). Gonna be interesting if they'll upload that.
What an excellent report. It deserves the widest readership both in the public arena and in policy-making circles. I am in agreement. "Hotter than expected - Sooner than expected." has been my mantra for years now. What I worry about is that even if society does everything right in terms of taking mitigating actions immediately, it will be too late. The momentum toward collapse is too strong if we look at society as a living organism, we can safely assume that it doesn't have infinite energy to achieve its goal. As its survival becomes threatened it will divert more and more of its energy to protecting itself at the expense of its other functions. That is the equation leading to its collapse.
Tough intellectual work, as usual. Absolutely imperative for these Crisis Reports from an unaligned source to continue.
Nowhere in this week’s report is any mention of the baseline futility of a world system being governed by supra-political corporations. All the IPCC mentions and references to climate science and biophysical charts cannot show the total lock on the global economy and all associated institutions by fossil fuel corporate and state-corporate powers.
How are they to be restrained? No one has the slightest idea beyond sheer fantasy.
There is no restraint. Just the chaos. Just the experience that all forms of life undergo. We are a rather interesting footnote on a long list of species that all died out for the same reason - their habitat no longer supported them.
Somehow we think we're extra special and get to avoid the consequences of our unfettered ecocide. That's where the majority of us are. There is no changing this. We are individuals, but we are a collective. Our collective behavioral situation dictates that there will be no positive change to the path we are now on. One that is now fully owned and driven by our habitat itself. All choices available to us at this point, mostly only hasten our exit from this place. Any choices that could've had some sort of meaningful long-term impact on the duration of our species' stay on this planet, have expired as being able to be chosen. Those trains are gone. All of those space shuttles left. This is the place now for all of us. We won't be going anywhere else.
Short of a few volcanos going apeshit in the next few years or so, and about 99% of us deciding to jump into those giant pits of lava, with the rest forever strictly agreeing to guide the species generationally through symbiotic coexistence with their environment... well... there's just not really much to be done.
Oh there's the fantasy. :D
The fantasy that's still with us though is mostly a lot of us are privileged to be able to even participate in these discussions, while we enjoy running water, power, easily obtained food. Gotta appreciate that while it's here, because it won't be for long.
Agreed to your points, but it's the emphasis that I would shift.
In your second paragraph, you state that our path is "fully owned and driven by our habitat itself." But humans are an ultrasocial species like ants and termites, as John Gowdy argues in his Ultrasocial book of a few years ago, and coporations/state corporations are the ultimate expression of that fear-based predator ultrasociality.
Drones in corporate offices are the one killing the habitat, owning all social reality and the biophysical reality that is the habitat.
Under that regime, you are right, the line recedes toward the horizon where extinction lies. Appreciate that situation? I guess. Can't bring back the past, even if you wanted to.
It’s all of us. We love to assign blame. And certainly there’s a billion arguments to be made about the severity of the blame. But it doesn’t matter much. We’re on the path we’re on.
Giving corporations personhood was just one more nail in the coffin. But overpopulation is overpopulation and we would’ve ended up here regardless. :/
I've heard the "all of us" line before in response, but this complete flattening of all humanity into one doesn't do justice to reality.
We have every right to play the Blame Game, while still knowing there is no Blame Authority in the sky, there is no justice coming for any perpetrators, there are only degrees of culpability. But we should own up to our decisions, not the decisions of others that we had no say in or influence over. I have no religious hatred of myself to contend with.
——“The last time that atmospheric CO2 concentrations topped 430 ppm was most likely more than 30 million years ago. — Ralph Keeling, Director Scripps CO2 Program.”
If you're feeling hopeless, because we all know our governments won't save us, there is still plenty you can do. I started to extricate myself from the economy and simplify my life years ago to make the coming shocks easier to manage. I was never in any position to own or pretend to own anything (e.g., house, car), which means I have no debt; I don't use credit; I have always lived in small spaces that don't require much energy to heat; I buy only essential things and I don't buy anything new (except underwear LOL); I don't have a car and rely on transit or walking; I don't use a cellphone; I didn't have kids but am happy to take care of other people's kids, and much more. All of these actions also mean I tread more lightly on the planet. Key words: simplify and consume little.
another nail in our coffin.... amazing that i can share this with almost nobody [1 person] as they don't want to know as they feel powerless or can't believe it or get too depressed so i don't tell them because why be nasty?
I've taken a step back from reading related news for a while, and thus writing about anything, but the recent papers published on the CERES data has brought me back. It is very, very clear now that the existing models are broken and grossly underestimating sensitivity to radiative forcing. I'll raise you one, Richard: I think we will see sustained +3.5c over the true pre-industrial baseline by 2040, if not earlier.
The rate of warming has doubled in just under ten years from 0.2 to 0.43 degrees centigrade per decade. Every fraction of a degree per year per decade increases the cumulative decadal rate, because we are talking about a compounding non-linear increase function here. Thus I see no reason this rate will not double again by 2035, to +0.86 degrees centigrade per decade, and I suspect higher. Considering potential warming feedbacks unlocked by the increase between now and 2035, a lower bound rate of 1 degree warming per decade globally is entirely possible and within the ability of hyper-consumerism to achieve. If we knock out a major aerosol emitter for a sustained period of years with a world war, we get there even faster.
We will not be measuring warming rates in 2050, if I am correct and the rate of warming increases at this pace for the next ten years. There is no life on earth evolved for such a rapid phase change in the global environmental condition.
I think that the current move in the United States to authoritarian dictatorship will expedite the warming and leave more of the United States at risk for depopulation events. With the push for selling public lands to rape the earth of minerals, fossil fuels and timber. Mining of the ocean and overfishing and whaling. The defunding of climate and all science and weather monitoring. More people will die from weather events, and deregulation of environmental protections and more animals will go extinct from habitat loss. It’s a bullet train of circumstances racing to 3c by 2050
It’s all connected, this push towards maximizing consumption because the supply is dwindling to feed billionaires unending appetite for more. Until we dismantle the system ( capitalism) there will be no changing the climate demise we are barreling towards
So now what? We are fortunate to have all this insight to work from so that at least we are aware of the situation being dire. I am looking in a direction that isn’t in play, where no matter what the details are of actions we could take external fixes are helpless to avert disaster. What I look to is human consciousness, where our best bet is for humanity to take a leap to becoming a caring species. We need to run on humanitarian ends, not economic ones, where if we felt ourselves to be one human family all hands would be on deck to deal with what to do as the best that could be happening now. My Substack is Now what?, and stepping it up to become what we were designed for in an interconnected and evolving reality, is what I’m writing about.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
Y’all continue to evade my 3 points, changing the subject to esoteric handwavium y’all Google & do not understand, appeals to authority, ad hominems & insults
Correct or if not why??
1. Earth be cooler w water vapor not warmer
2. GHE balance graphics are trash
3. Surface can’t radiate “extra” GHE energy as BB
GHE = bogus & CAGW = scam
Authoritative & consensual & popular & way wrong = recurring theme in science history, e.g. phlogiston, caloric, luminiferous ether, spontaneous generation, planet Vulcan, water filled Martian canals, medical humors, expanding Big Bang all turned up wrong.
Earth is cooler with atmosphere/water vapor/30% albedo not warmer.
Ubiquitous RGHE heat balance graphics don't plus violate GAAP and LoT.
Kinetic heat transfer processes of contiguous atmospheric molecules render a surface BB impossible.
RGHE is bogus & CAGW is a scam!
FACTS & EVIDENCE:
FACT 1: Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the GHGs and the Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At Earth’s distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
That’s NOT what the RGHE theory says.
EVIDENCE:
RGHE theory says “288 K w – 255 K (-18 C) w/o = a 33 C colder ice ball Earth.” 255 K assumes w/o case keeps 30% albedo, an assumption akin to criminal fraud. Nobody agrees 288 K is GMST plus it was 15 C in 1896. 288 K is a physical surface measurement. 255 K is a S-B equilibrium calculation at ToA. Apples and potatoes.
Nikolov “Airless Celestial Bodies”
Kramm “Moon as test bed for Earth”
UCLA Diviner lunar mission data
JWST solar shield (391.7 K)
Sky Lab
ISS HVAC design for lit side of 250 F. (ISS web site)
Astronaut backpack life support w/ AC and cool water tubing underwear. (Space Discovery Center)
FACT 2: The GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from a surface radiating as a BB.
EVIDENCE:
According to TFK_bams09 atmospheric power flux balance, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must absorb an “extra” 396 BB/333 “back”/63 2nd net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a BB. These graphics contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors.
FACT 3: Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a near Black Body.
EVIDENCE:
As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
Authoritative & consensual & popular & way wrong = recurring theme in science history, e.g. phlogiston, caloric, luminiferous ether, spontaneous generation, planet Vulcan, water filled Martian canals, medical humors, expanding Big Bang all turned up wrong.
GHE will join them.
Y’all continue to evade my 3 points, changing the subject to esoteric handwavium y’all Google & do not understand, appeals to authority, ad hominems & insults
Thank you, Richard, for doing the hard work required to keep your subscribers informed on this critical subject. None of it makes me happy, but at least I have a better sense of what perilous times we have entered into. I feel truly sad for the children who will live in such challenging times for all life on earth. Parents of the lovely children can’t really express to their offspring how bad things will be for them because it would be dampening hope and joy. We are locked into hope for abundance while also trying to fight rising greenhouse gases. It seems to me that the squeeze is going to be intense and probably lead us rapidly into destructive wars, like the one just started in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Maybe it will be contained or maybe it won’t. But if destructive climate events are rapidly spiraling to greater intensity it also seems likely that our human emotions and actions will also spiral outward to greater levels of destruction across all realms of economics, politics, and social interaction.
I just attended some teams where they where debating about the IPCC Models. The sneaky, arrogant comment "leave that to the climate scientists" was kinda odd as they seemed to be wanting to diversify the modeling community at the same time when I asked about the CO2e, hit house earth models and the debated Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (Mann vs. Hansen). Gonna be interesting if they'll upload that.
We do live in interesting times... 🫠
What an excellent report. It deserves the widest readership both in the public arena and in policy-making circles. I am in agreement. "Hotter than expected - Sooner than expected." has been my mantra for years now. What I worry about is that even if society does everything right in terms of taking mitigating actions immediately, it will be too late. The momentum toward collapse is too strong if we look at society as a living organism, we can safely assume that it doesn't have infinite energy to achieve its goal. As its survival becomes threatened it will divert more and more of its energy to protecting itself at the expense of its other functions. That is the equation leading to its collapse.
Tough intellectual work, as usual. Absolutely imperative for these Crisis Reports from an unaligned source to continue.
Nowhere in this week’s report is any mention of the baseline futility of a world system being governed by supra-political corporations. All the IPCC mentions and references to climate science and biophysical charts cannot show the total lock on the global economy and all associated institutions by fossil fuel corporate and state-corporate powers.
How are they to be restrained? No one has the slightest idea beyond sheer fantasy.
There is no restraint. Just the chaos. Just the experience that all forms of life undergo. We are a rather interesting footnote on a long list of species that all died out for the same reason - their habitat no longer supported them.
Somehow we think we're extra special and get to avoid the consequences of our unfettered ecocide. That's where the majority of us are. There is no changing this. We are individuals, but we are a collective. Our collective behavioral situation dictates that there will be no positive change to the path we are now on. One that is now fully owned and driven by our habitat itself. All choices available to us at this point, mostly only hasten our exit from this place. Any choices that could've had some sort of meaningful long-term impact on the duration of our species' stay on this planet, have expired as being able to be chosen. Those trains are gone. All of those space shuttles left. This is the place now for all of us. We won't be going anywhere else.
Short of a few volcanos going apeshit in the next few years or so, and about 99% of us deciding to jump into those giant pits of lava, with the rest forever strictly agreeing to guide the species generationally through symbiotic coexistence with their environment... well... there's just not really much to be done.
Oh there's the fantasy. :D
The fantasy that's still with us though is mostly a lot of us are privileged to be able to even participate in these discussions, while we enjoy running water, power, easily obtained food. Gotta appreciate that while it's here, because it won't be for long.
Agreed to your points, but it's the emphasis that I would shift.
In your second paragraph, you state that our path is "fully owned and driven by our habitat itself." But humans are an ultrasocial species like ants and termites, as John Gowdy argues in his Ultrasocial book of a few years ago, and coporations/state corporations are the ultimate expression of that fear-based predator ultrasociality.
Drones in corporate offices are the one killing the habitat, owning all social reality and the biophysical reality that is the habitat.
Under that regime, you are right, the line recedes toward the horizon where extinction lies. Appreciate that situation? I guess. Can't bring back the past, even if you wanted to.
It’s all of us. We love to assign blame. And certainly there’s a billion arguments to be made about the severity of the blame. But it doesn’t matter much. We’re on the path we’re on.
Giving corporations personhood was just one more nail in the coffin. But overpopulation is overpopulation and we would’ve ended up here regardless. :/
I've heard the "all of us" line before in response, but this complete flattening of all humanity into one doesn't do justice to reality.
We have every right to play the Blame Game, while still knowing there is no Blame Authority in the sky, there is no justice coming for any perpetrators, there are only degrees of culpability. But we should own up to our decisions, not the decisions of others that we had no say in or influence over. I have no religious hatred of myself to contend with.
Once again. Immense GRATITUDE. The time you take to unpack this inform for lay readers is deeply generous. Thank you.
——“The last time that atmospheric CO2 concentrations topped 430 ppm was most likely more than 30 million years ago. — Ralph Keeling, Director Scripps CO2 Program.”
30 million？ I thought Pliocene was 3~5 million?
If you're feeling hopeless, because we all know our governments won't save us, there is still plenty you can do. I started to extricate myself from the economy and simplify my life years ago to make the coming shocks easier to manage. I was never in any position to own or pretend to own anything (e.g., house, car), which means I have no debt; I don't use credit; I have always lived in small spaces that don't require much energy to heat; I buy only essential things and I don't buy anything new (except underwear LOL); I don't have a car and rely on transit or walking; I don't use a cellphone; I didn't have kids but am happy to take care of other people's kids, and much more. All of these actions also mean I tread more lightly on the planet. Key words: simplify and consume little.
another nail in our coffin.... amazing that i can share this with almost nobody [1 person] as they don't want to know as they feel powerless or can't believe it or get too depressed so i don't tell them because why be nasty?
I've taken a step back from reading related news for a while, and thus writing about anything, but the recent papers published on the CERES data has brought me back. It is very, very clear now that the existing models are broken and grossly underestimating sensitivity to radiative forcing. I'll raise you one, Richard: I think we will see sustained +3.5c over the true pre-industrial baseline by 2040, if not earlier.
The rate of warming has doubled in just under ten years from 0.2 to 0.43 degrees centigrade per decade. Every fraction of a degree per year per decade increases the cumulative decadal rate, because we are talking about a compounding non-linear increase function here. Thus I see no reason this rate will not double again by 2035, to +0.86 degrees centigrade per decade, and I suspect higher. Considering potential warming feedbacks unlocked by the increase between now and 2035, a lower bound rate of 1 degree warming per decade globally is entirely possible and within the ability of hyper-consumerism to achieve. If we knock out a major aerosol emitter for a sustained period of years with a world war, we get there even faster.
We will not be measuring warming rates in 2050, if I am correct and the rate of warming increases at this pace for the next ten years. There is no life on earth evolved for such a rapid phase change in the global environmental condition.
Sooner than 2050, I suspect.
I think that the current move in the United States to authoritarian dictatorship will expedite the warming and leave more of the United States at risk for depopulation events. With the push for selling public lands to rape the earth of minerals, fossil fuels and timber. Mining of the ocean and overfishing and whaling. The defunding of climate and all science and weather monitoring. More people will die from weather events, and deregulation of environmental protections and more animals will go extinct from habitat loss. It’s a bullet train of circumstances racing to 3c by 2050
If more countries turn into dictatorships as a result of late stage capitalism income inequality this too will expedite climate change.
It’s all connected, this push towards maximizing consumption because the supply is dwindling to feed billionaires unending appetite for more. Until we dismantle the system ( capitalism) there will be no changing the climate demise we are barreling towards
So now what? We are fortunate to have all this insight to work from so that at least we are aware of the situation being dire. I am looking in a direction that isn’t in play, where no matter what the details are of actions we could take external fixes are helpless to avert disaster. What I look to is human consciousness, where our best bet is for humanity to take a leap to becoming a caring species. We need to run on humanitarian ends, not economic ones, where if we felt ourselves to be one human family all hands would be on deck to deal with what to do as the best that could be happening now. My Substack is Now what?, and stepping it up to become what we were designed for in an interconnected and evolving reality, is what I’m writing about.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
I think you misconstrue how science works. Unlike nutcases, we scientists learn from our mistakes.
Y’all continue to evade my 3 points, changing the subject to esoteric handwavium y’all Google & do not understand, appeals to authority, ad hominems & insults
Correct or if not why??
1. Earth be cooler w water vapor not warmer
2. GHE balance graphics are trash
3. Surface can’t radiate “extra” GHE energy as BB
GHE = bogus & CAGW = scam
Authoritative & consensual & popular & way wrong = recurring theme in science history, e.g. phlogiston, caloric, luminiferous ether, spontaneous generation, planet Vulcan, water filled Martian canals, medical humors, expanding Big Bang all turned up wrong.
GHE will join them.
Show your evidence with references, or shut the fuck up.
OK, now your turn.
ABSTRACT:
Earth is cooler with atmosphere/water vapor/30% albedo not warmer.
Ubiquitous RGHE heat balance graphics don't plus violate GAAP and LoT.
Kinetic heat transfer processes of contiguous atmospheric molecules render a surface BB impossible.
RGHE is bogus & CAGW is a scam!
FACTS & EVIDENCE:
FACT 1: Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the GHGs and the Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At Earth’s distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
That’s NOT what the RGHE theory says.
EVIDENCE:
RGHE theory says “288 K w – 255 K (-18 C) w/o = a 33 C colder ice ball Earth.” 255 K assumes w/o case keeps 30% albedo, an assumption akin to criminal fraud. Nobody agrees 288 K is GMST plus it was 15 C in 1896. 288 K is a physical surface measurement. 255 K is a S-B equilibrium calculation at ToA. Apples and potatoes.
Nikolov “Airless Celestial Bodies”
Kramm “Moon as test bed for Earth”
UCLA Diviner lunar mission data
JWST solar shield (391.7 K)
Sky Lab
ISS HVAC design for lit side of 250 F. (ISS web site)
Astronaut backpack life support w/ AC and cool water tubing underwear. (Space Discovery Center)
FACT 2: The GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from a surface radiating as a BB.
EVIDENCE:
According to TFK_bams09 atmospheric power flux balance, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must absorb an “extra” 396 BB/333 “back”/63 2nd net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a BB. These graphics contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors.
FACT 3: Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a near Black Body.
EVIDENCE:
As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
For the experimental write up see:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
Search: Bruges group “boiling water pot”
CONCLUSION:
No RGHE, no GHG warming, no CAGW or mankind/CO2 driven climate change.
What?
Authoritative & consensual & popular & way wrong = recurring theme in science history, e.g. phlogiston, caloric, luminiferous ether, spontaneous generation, planet Vulcan, water filled Martian canals, medical humors, expanding Big Bang all turned up wrong.
GHE will join them.
Y’all continue to evade my 3 points, changing the subject to esoteric handwavium y’all Google & do not understand, appeals to authority, ad hominems & insults
Correct or if not why??
1. Earth be cooler w water vapor not warmer
2. GHE balance graphics are trash
3. Surface can’t radiate “extra” GHE energy as BB
While I'm not a professional within the field of science, I wonder if anyone who indeed is a professional can make some sense of your comments.
Stand before a blazing campfire on a chilly evening.
Lift up a blanket between.
Cooler or warmer?
Drop the blanket.
Cooler or warmer?
That’s what Earth’s atmosphere & albedo produce, cooler not warmer.
That is not a GHE.
GHE says w/o it Earth becomes -18 C ball of ice.
Clearly wrong.
No GHE, no GHG warming, no CAGW & $E12 global scam instantly unemployed.
Your comments still make about zero sense, but probably that's just me.
I can it explain it to you, I can’t understand it for you.
Try doing the homework.