Thank you Richard. I wish I had as rosey a perspective on the future as you do. (not being facetious).
CO2 is a bad measure. Global warming gases (as CO2) is the better measure. By that with a 100 yr timeframe we are about 550-560 ppm. On a real scale measuring current impacts we more like 750. Those numbers put us back 30-35 million years ago fir the last time the earth was here. Mankind has maybe a decade or two to go before full collapse kills us. And with the burn it all option now in vogue, we seem likely to add another 30-50 ppm to the 550 number and another 60-70 to the 75- number. That only pushes us back another couple million years. Either way, ice free earth here we come. Welcome to the Oligocene - coming soon to a planet near you. And maybe, just maybe - welcome to the Eocene.
I note that whilst you mention CO2(e), Carbon Dioxide levels with Methane effects included, the graphs are just registering 430ppm rather than the 530ppm or more with the fast- increasing contributions of methane and other CO2 equivalents. Of course, that addition seems to make it all so much worse.
I am also interested in the effects of sea level rise, both from ice melt and from expanding warmer waters, and whether the slow timeline with long lag will change. Sea levels in previous times with these CO2 levels were tens of metres higher, which suggests that such rises are 'baked in'(literally), so the question becomes 'How fast?'
I am also concerned about increasing tectonic activity from ice cover melt at the poles and Greenland allowing rebound, and the warmer seas allowing tectonic plates to expand. On the one hand, increasing earthquake and volcanic activity may make some densely populated regions unliveable, but on the other hand, a large volcanic eruption might even change the reflectivity of the planet and cool the climate.
I am 70 so am hoping for another decade of reasonable survival as the news around me gets worse and worse. Best I can manage to hope for.
On a personal note, at the moment I am wondering whether it is better to stay in this small and resilient town in France, relatively safe and with suitable local resources, where I might survive for longer (do I really want to?), or to 'go out in style' by selling up and moving to a more happening and fun city for my remaining few years. My mind switches, almost day by day. I suspect many of us are going through similar calculations.
I think the psychological impacts will be as dangerous to us all as the physical ones, with hopelessness, depression, insanity for those unable to accept, suicide, and expressions of anger and violence, all becoming more and more commonplace. Worse in America, with all those guns......
I am also aware, and your post reinforces this, that here in Europe we will need to deal with a flood of migrants from Africa that will either be stopped by increasing force and State violence, or will swamp the southern European and Mediterranean countries. Our remaining days are likely to become increasingly brutal.
Is Trump on the right path? For rich Americans, I can see that they may think so. Secure the remaining resources and let all the poor, sick, old and non-productive people die off. They will live in a world of isolation of course, rich pariahs, too scared to go outside in case someone kills them, each in their lonely bunkers of privilège. Alive perhaps, but not really living. I think I'd rather stay here in Europe and take my chances.
Keep the information flowing please, Richard. I understand the task you have set yourself is a difficult, perhaps one with personal costs, but we do appreciate your intelligence and integrity, however hard the truth may be for us to absorb, accept and understand.
I'm not far behind you. I fear for my grandchildren and great grandchildren. My wife and I are doing what we can, but I think it's futile for us. I definitely agree with your assessment of the psychological aspects. I don't think most Americans understand just how bad things will get. The preppers in their country bunkers don't seem to understand that other better armed and protected people likely do, too.
We'll be some of the first to go if the US decides to "eliminate the unworthy." I think that's coming if you read between the lines of Projecf 2025 and listen to what the Misadministration says. I've read my history. Trump is not on the right path. We cannot survive alone. We don't have the raw materials we need anymore. In fact, I suspect that we might live long enough to witness WW III. Ukraine and Gaza (just a few examples) are only the beginning and a view of our collective future. I expect our southern border to become more of a killing ground than it already is. Canada's border with us will likely become one, as well, at least at the easiest crossing points.
I don't think the rich fully understand that their bunkers are prime targets, both from the inside and outside. "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" (Who watches the watchers?) They'll have to come out eventually, if they're not overthown from within. Their supplies will run out. Their technology will break. Their weaponry will degrade.
We aren't going to live it up. Our consciences won't let us. We've done more than enough damage as human beings already.
When I think of the amazing biosphere that is our home and the gazillions of years of existence that preceded humans living on it, it’s more than shocking to witness the obliteration currently occurring…and most of the damage has been done in less than 100 years…far less time than the blink of an eye in our planet’s history.
True. When I think back to our childhoods, they were the very best of times. Playing out in our neighborhood from dawn to dusk with no worries. Vaccines kept us safe from horrible diseases. Schools were safe and properly funded. No risks of hurricanes and fires. No social media fucking everybody up with propaganda and disinformation. I could ride my bike all over our fair city at 8 years old and my mom never even had a worry. Our children have not and will never know those early care free days. It will get worse, much worse from here. I mourn for our posterity.
Yet when I think about it, even back then there was the constant background threat of nuclear war, and hiding under school desks, and Red scares, and child kidnappings..... perhaps we have selective memories too?
Very true. But nuclear war, the only real threat of mass destruction then, was just a threat, and a remote one at best (at least most of the time), while the climate apocalypse is a certainty. (BTW, I'm another septuagenarian, so I lived through those times too.)
What is it with we septuagenarians? Is it that we're the only ones left with clear memories of how different things were back in the 60's to know how completely f*cked we are now....
Yes...I long for those days, walking to and from school, summers filled with fireflies and the humming of crickets, knee high snow for weeks at a time...Yes, we lived through the best of times...And now, we will see, and perhaps live for a time through the worst...How to find meaning in all this? I still see beauty and that carries me along, supports me, atop the relentless wave of grief for all that is and will be lost...
A few years ago, not knowing how bad things were or how rapidly the climate would deteriorate, but thinking to protect my family from collapse, I built a new house for my children and grandchildren and have been trying to grow nut trees in a fairly remote rain forest region of southern Australia for them, but recently built a 6m x 3m cabin for myself down in a gully between two creeks at the bottom of the property.
From there I look out at 200 year old tree ferns and towering old rain forest trees, whose beauty changes with each passing hour of the day.
Like you, the immense sadness that all this will soon be gone is hard to reconcile, along with the thought of the terrible pain and anguish that will befall my little family, who of course, have no idea, and do not want to know.....
It is comforting to know that you, who can appreciates it, is in a place of such rare natural beauty...I think nature appreciates being witnessed and loved...So we must love with all our hearts until the end...
Yep, but those things were just tiny slivers of my childhood. The vast majority of time was spent on childish things. There’s always been evil in our world to deal with, but, even then, living with the possibility of nuclear Armageddon, we KNEW we were on the right side!
I'm with you there too. Also a septuagenarian, I've been preparing for collapse for 20+ years on 20 acres, growing nut trees in a cool-ish part of Australia, not for myself but the kids, (who completely reject any mention of collapse by threatening excommunication, and live their privileged lives as if this way of life will continue forever)....and now four grandkids.
What to do? Keep plodding along I guess, what else?
Thank you once again Richard. I have moved to “acceptance” of what is coming. I am also preparing as best I can for my family to be as comfortable as possible for as long as possible, but yeah.
How do I accept accelerating climate collapse? The same way I accept a terminal disease or condition. Even if my life was spent in the eighteenth century, I would still be dead as a door nail eventually.
The calamity of Trump's political coup have diverted our attention away from the far greater calamity of global rapid heating. Thank you for bringing the latter back to our attention again.
Your commenting feed is corrupted with a flashing light. Your undocumented temperature numbers are not a service to climate science. We should direct everyone to C3S, who published, among many fine climate science articles, the 6-5-24 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", which gives the surface land temp increase of 0.75 degC over the 1991-2020 baseline, so 0.214 degC annually over the 3.5 yr. period. The recent ENVIRONMENT 2-12-25 paper by Hansen, e.al., "Global Warming Has Accelerated", gives a 0.4 degC global surface land temp increase for "the past 2 yrs.", so 0.2 degC annually. Given these GAST (Global Average Surface Temperature) increases, and predicting an ongoing trend line at the same acceleration, we may see 2 degC by 2027, 3 degC (1/2 humans perish according to your paper here) by 2032, and a 6 degC extinction level by 2047, the year any child unfortunate enough to be born among the 168,000 being born today will turn 22, unless already perished from heat exhaustion, starvation, mega-storm, civil unrest, war, etc. The fossil fuel/tech corporate overlords, such as Tramp/Muskrat/Theil/etc., are doing everything in their considerable power to keep this info under wraps, lest we finally wake-up and eat them. The situation is far more dire than you portray, maybe due to no contact with C3S. Have a blessed day.
You're welcome. The full name is "Copernicus Climate Change Service" .eu Look for their "Climate Pulse" page, as it summarizes the annual heating/cooling in one multilayered graph. I look at this every day and record the "anomalies" for both land and sea. Have a blessed day.
Although I agree that we are headed toward an extinction level event, I don't see the evidence that we are heading toward it as quickly as you say. First of all, if you look at the annual temperature graphs, you'll see a lot of noise on a year to year basis. Two years is just way too short a time period from which to make accurate predictions; you can easily find two-year stretches in very recent years where the second year was cooler than the first. Yet no one thinks that this means we are in a long-term cooling trend. Also note that a large majority of the temperature increase in the most recent two years took place in 2023, whereas only a much smaller increase took place in 2024. You can't form an accurate long-term curve from just two points of rather noisy data.
Finally, as Hansen notes, a significant portion of that 0.4° temperature rise comes from the calling in of part of our "Faustian bargain," which in this case is essentially the elimination of sulfur emissions from international shipping. Hanson has shown rather convincingly that such elimination in a location with rather pristine air, along with the major secondary effect of reduced lower cloud cover, can have a major effect on temperature rise. It takes about 5 to 7 years for this effect to become negligible.
Nevertheless, both the data and the physical nature of the underlying processes of climate change indicate that we are on course for an exponential rise in temperatures. It's just that that rise will take a bit longer than you said. The exponential nature of this rise will end as all exponential rises do; namely, when the resources fueling it start to run out. A large population decline will decrease the demand for fossil fuels, and the loss of infrastructure needed to support their use on a large scale will reduce their contribution to global warming to negligible levels. However, as Hansen points out, this does not mean that global warming will cease within a few years, as mainstream climate science claims. Instead, the climate response time that he describes in his paper "Global Warming in the Pipeline" will ensure that warming continues, rising in the shape of an asymtotic curve, with 63% of this warming taking about a century. However, this assumes that no self-sustaining feedback loops are present at that point, which is far from certain.
I'm an 80yo lifelong scientist, BA chem/bio '67, MD '72, psych residency '74, U of Rochester Asst. prof. '74-'76, and 4 more med school appointments. And, you? Read the damn papers I cited, then get back to me with your from the hip critique, or not. No big diff. either way to an 80yo. Have a blessed day!
Great work, Richard. The rapidity with which our economic and social systems are going to break down will come as a shock to most. Your choice of mainstream news headlines well illustrates the concerted effort to keep the masses in the dark. While Trump plays the fool, fortress America is a real thing. A fight for Arctic resources by Russia, China and the US has long been foreseen.
At the most critical juncture for humans AND animals in our biosphere’s history, we find ourselves being “led” by an overly flatulent, lazy conman who is 💯 percent oblivious to the real challenges facing our world. Not saying I believe in an anti-Christ, but if one was being designed, they couldn’t do better than Donald Drumpf.
Fortunately, that's not going to happen. The physical processes involved just don't move that quickly. Also, it is highly questionable whether the Earth's climate system contains enough energy to produce such a rise. For example, in the Permian-Triassic mass extinction, the worst of the five great mass extinctions, temperatures rose a total of only 10°C, and that was over a period of millions of years.
Another treasure trove of factual information, Richard. Thank you. The ultimate conclusions to be drawn from so much solid evidence are probably too emotionally overwhelming for a very large percentage of the human population. They just cannot allow themselves to go where the data lead. It will be our ultimate undoing. Keep on being a reliable voice of reason, please.
We know, WE KNOW. We are inscrutably beyond fucked. We tried to do something about it, sort of, but "the powers that be" decided they didn't care, so that's it then. Just on a U.S. level alone, 2025 showed that "the people" don't really care. I would say they wouldn't care up until it affects them, but now I don't even think that's the case. People will be cheering this on until the very end. Humanity had a good run, I guess.
Here's more support for the collapse of civilization, focusing more on the political, military, and economic consequences (and sorry if I posted an earlier version of this paper):
Civilization will Collapse (High Confidence):
A Compendium of Relevant Biophysical, Political, Economic, Military, Health, and Psychological Information on Climate Change
Here is the latest version (which is updated weekly):
If you are concerned about clicking links in emails received from people you don’t know, you can go to the EarthArXiv preprint server (https://eartharxiv.org/) and then search for “Demetrios Karis”
Thank you Richard...My husband and I, like you, are older (68 and 70) and our only dependents are 4 cats (2 youngsters and 2 elders)...We are (well, at least I am) very cognizant of the limited time frame here, and with my health issues, living even another 10 years is a real stretch...So with so little to lose, in terms of time and life goals, satisfactions, etc it is not hard to accept at least the idea of civilizational collapse occurring in my lifetime...What is hardest to watch right now is the dwindling of the natural world...Fewer animals, birds and insects are visiting our backyard...The weather is hot one day, snowing the next...At least sunrise and sunset are still reliable and beautiful...It is especially helpful for me, aside from the reassuring (in some sense- like I am not crazy, things are really getting bad) regularity of your missives, is the geopolitical explanation you offer now for the apparent madness going on in our government...And the obvious fact that no matter what they do this cannot be fixed...Wishing you well and should the need arise, here in northwest Indiana there is room for you (but probably not any more cats) in our humble home with a well stocked pantry and means of cooking and heating (probably less and less need for that) without electricity...All the best...And btw yes I read Jessica's article...Very helpful...Peace of mind to all...
A bit over my head all that but we have a documented case whereby the Earth recovers very quickly from Humankind’s pollution:
That is the film “The Year Earth Changed” hosted by famous David Attenborough, released in 2021. In one year during the near world wide Covid-19 shutdowns most industrial processes shut down, humans stayed indoors, and nature recovered in an amazing way.
In the Crisis Report Richard Crim does a good job of creating a panic narrative.
The good news is that he is wrong on a bunch of fronts.
He assumes a strong causation between CO2 and temperature and we now no that to be an error.
Then he assumes that the proxy data for CO2 is calibrated with the recent physical measurements… we now know that is questionable.
He draws a lot of comparison between the impact of variable weather with climate change that even the IPCC has trouble validating.
He declares in contradiction to many scientists that the climate is in a positive feedback loop whereas its clear that it’s a negative self stabilizing mode.
He infers that all of the impact of any climate change is human induced whereas the science is far from settled on that.
We certainly should be planning focused adaption, but its not a climate emergency let alone an Armageddon as Crim would lead you to believe.
Once you have the honesty to understand that the IPCC and COP are political constructs, there should be little reliance on these groups for an accurate picture of the world's climate future. Skeptical commenters will be prone to use damaged or politically slanted information provided by the Trump administration going forward, citing "this international group reported" or "this governmental agency said". Such pronouncements will have no accuracy or honesty whatsoever.
I actually agree with you… trusting so called “official sources” politically subjugated has been a huge mistake.
The alternative is not to blindly move to other sources you want to believe…. but to dig into the facts to seek the truth…
The experts that are prepared to do that are to be listened too….. but only so far as they have facts that stack up…. So far it points to the need for little action.
Do you mean any negative impact other than the Arctic loosing ice faster and faster, the seas getting warmer from all the extra energy they absorb?
To name a few examples.
1 degree increase does not impact as in flipping a switch, it is (of course) a longer process.
But that longer process gets shorter and shorter, and can now be followed from year to year rather than from the anticipated decade to decade - or even longer.
Thank you Richard. I wish I had as rosey a perspective on the future as you do. (not being facetious).
CO2 is a bad measure. Global warming gases (as CO2) is the better measure. By that with a 100 yr timeframe we are about 550-560 ppm. On a real scale measuring current impacts we more like 750. Those numbers put us back 30-35 million years ago fir the last time the earth was here. Mankind has maybe a decade or two to go before full collapse kills us. And with the burn it all option now in vogue, we seem likely to add another 30-50 ppm to the 550 number and another 60-70 to the 75- number. That only pushes us back another couple million years. Either way, ice free earth here we come. Welcome to the Oligocene - coming soon to a planet near you. And maybe, just maybe - welcome to the Eocene.
Thanks Richard, an excellent analysis as always.
I note that whilst you mention CO2(e), Carbon Dioxide levels with Methane effects included, the graphs are just registering 430ppm rather than the 530ppm or more with the fast- increasing contributions of methane and other CO2 equivalents. Of course, that addition seems to make it all so much worse.
I am also interested in the effects of sea level rise, both from ice melt and from expanding warmer waters, and whether the slow timeline with long lag will change. Sea levels in previous times with these CO2 levels were tens of metres higher, which suggests that such rises are 'baked in'(literally), so the question becomes 'How fast?'
I am also concerned about increasing tectonic activity from ice cover melt at the poles and Greenland allowing rebound, and the warmer seas allowing tectonic plates to expand. On the one hand, increasing earthquake and volcanic activity may make some densely populated regions unliveable, but on the other hand, a large volcanic eruption might even change the reflectivity of the planet and cool the climate.
I am 70 so am hoping for another decade of reasonable survival as the news around me gets worse and worse. Best I can manage to hope for.
On a personal note, at the moment I am wondering whether it is better to stay in this small and resilient town in France, relatively safe and with suitable local resources, where I might survive for longer (do I really want to?), or to 'go out in style' by selling up and moving to a more happening and fun city for my remaining few years. My mind switches, almost day by day. I suspect many of us are going through similar calculations.
I think the psychological impacts will be as dangerous to us all as the physical ones, with hopelessness, depression, insanity for those unable to accept, suicide, and expressions of anger and violence, all becoming more and more commonplace. Worse in America, with all those guns......
I am also aware, and your post reinforces this, that here in Europe we will need to deal with a flood of migrants from Africa that will either be stopped by increasing force and State violence, or will swamp the southern European and Mediterranean countries. Our remaining days are likely to become increasingly brutal.
Is Trump on the right path? For rich Americans, I can see that they may think so. Secure the remaining resources and let all the poor, sick, old and non-productive people die off. They will live in a world of isolation of course, rich pariahs, too scared to go outside in case someone kills them, each in their lonely bunkers of privilège. Alive perhaps, but not really living. I think I'd rather stay here in Europe and take my chances.
Keep the information flowing please, Richard. I understand the task you have set yourself is a difficult, perhaps one with personal costs, but we do appreciate your intelligence and integrity, however hard the truth may be for us to absorb, accept and understand.
Thanks!
I'm not far behind you. I fear for my grandchildren and great grandchildren. My wife and I are doing what we can, but I think it's futile for us. I definitely agree with your assessment of the psychological aspects. I don't think most Americans understand just how bad things will get. The preppers in their country bunkers don't seem to understand that other better armed and protected people likely do, too.
We'll be some of the first to go if the US decides to "eliminate the unworthy." I think that's coming if you read between the lines of Projecf 2025 and listen to what the Misadministration says. I've read my history. Trump is not on the right path. We cannot survive alone. We don't have the raw materials we need anymore. In fact, I suspect that we might live long enough to witness WW III. Ukraine and Gaza (just a few examples) are only the beginning and a view of our collective future. I expect our southern border to become more of a killing ground than it already is. Canada's border with us will likely become one, as well, at least at the easiest crossing points.
I don't think the rich fully understand that their bunkers are prime targets, both from the inside and outside. "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" (Who watches the watchers?) They'll have to come out eventually, if they're not overthown from within. Their supplies will run out. Their technology will break. Their weaponry will degrade.
We aren't going to live it up. Our consciences won't let us. We've done more than enough damage as human beings already.
When I think of the amazing biosphere that is our home and the gazillions of years of existence that preceded humans living on it, it’s more than shocking to witness the obliteration currently occurring…and most of the damage has been done in less than 100 years…far less time than the blink of an eye in our planet’s history.
Perhaps we know the answer to the Fermi Paradox now.
Or maybe they're just too intelligent to let us know there are there, because of what they believe we might do? 🤔
I’m right there with you, ALRA. We septuagenarians have decisions to make. Difficult decisions. It’s been quite a ride.
We've had the best of it. Now I think we're going to get to see how damned lucky we've been all these decades!
True. When I think back to our childhoods, they were the very best of times. Playing out in our neighborhood from dawn to dusk with no worries. Vaccines kept us safe from horrible diseases. Schools were safe and properly funded. No risks of hurricanes and fires. No social media fucking everybody up with propaganda and disinformation. I could ride my bike all over our fair city at 8 years old and my mom never even had a worry. Our children have not and will never know those early care free days. It will get worse, much worse from here. I mourn for our posterity.
I couldn't agree with you more.
Yet when I think about it, even back then there was the constant background threat of nuclear war, and hiding under school desks, and Red scares, and child kidnappings..... perhaps we have selective memories too?
Very true. But nuclear war, the only real threat of mass destruction then, was just a threat, and a remote one at best (at least most of the time), while the climate apocalypse is a certainty. (BTW, I'm another septuagenarian, so I lived through those times too.)
What is it with we septuagenarians? Is it that we're the only ones left with clear memories of how different things were back in the 60's to know how completely f*cked we are now....
Yes...I long for those days, walking to and from school, summers filled with fireflies and the humming of crickets, knee high snow for weeks at a time...Yes, we lived through the best of times...And now, we will see, and perhaps live for a time through the worst...How to find meaning in all this? I still see beauty and that carries me along, supports me, atop the relentless wave of grief for all that is and will be lost...
A few years ago, not knowing how bad things were or how rapidly the climate would deteriorate, but thinking to protect my family from collapse, I built a new house for my children and grandchildren and have been trying to grow nut trees in a fairly remote rain forest region of southern Australia for them, but recently built a 6m x 3m cabin for myself down in a gully between two creeks at the bottom of the property.
From there I look out at 200 year old tree ferns and towering old rain forest trees, whose beauty changes with each passing hour of the day.
Like you, the immense sadness that all this will soon be gone is hard to reconcile, along with the thought of the terrible pain and anguish that will befall my little family, who of course, have no idea, and do not want to know.....
It is comforting to know that you, who can appreciates it, is in a place of such rare natural beauty...I think nature appreciates being witnessed and loved...So we must love with all our hearts until the end...
Yep, but those things were just tiny slivers of my childhood. The vast majority of time was spent on childish things. There’s always been evil in our world to deal with, but, even then, living with the possibility of nuclear Armageddon, we KNEW we were on the right side!
I'm not sure those American kids growing up in Trump 's world will have even the luxury of knowing that!
I'm with you there too. Also a septuagenarian, I've been preparing for collapse for 20+ years on 20 acres, growing nut trees in a cool-ish part of Australia, not for myself but the kids, (who completely reject any mention of collapse by threatening excommunication, and live their privileged lives as if this way of life will continue forever)....and now four grandkids.
What to do? Keep plodding along I guess, what else?
Thank you once again Richard. I have moved to “acceptance” of what is coming. I am also preparing as best I can for my family to be as comfortable as possible for as long as possible, but yeah.
The research station at the start of the report is at risk of being shutdown.
Trump cuts target world-leading greenhouse gas observatory in Hawaii
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/trump-cuts-target-world-leading-greenhouse-gas-observatory-hawaii-2025-03-11/
How do I accept accelerating climate collapse? The same way I accept a terminal disease or condition. Even if my life was spent in the eighteenth century, I would still be dead as a door nail eventually.
The calamity of Trump's political coup have diverted our attention away from the far greater calamity of global rapid heating. Thank you for bringing the latter back to our attention again.
Your commenting feed is corrupted with a flashing light. Your undocumented temperature numbers are not a service to climate science. We should direct everyone to C3S, who published, among many fine climate science articles, the 6-5-24 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", which gives the surface land temp increase of 0.75 degC over the 1991-2020 baseline, so 0.214 degC annually over the 3.5 yr. period. The recent ENVIRONMENT 2-12-25 paper by Hansen, e.al., "Global Warming Has Accelerated", gives a 0.4 degC global surface land temp increase for "the past 2 yrs.", so 0.2 degC annually. Given these GAST (Global Average Surface Temperature) increases, and predicting an ongoing trend line at the same acceleration, we may see 2 degC by 2027, 3 degC (1/2 humans perish according to your paper here) by 2032, and a 6 degC extinction level by 2047, the year any child unfortunate enough to be born among the 168,000 being born today will turn 22, unless already perished from heat exhaustion, starvation, mega-storm, civil unrest, war, etc. The fossil fuel/tech corporate overlords, such as Tramp/Muskrat/Theil/etc., are doing everything in their considerable power to keep this info under wraps, lest we finally wake-up and eat them. The situation is far more dire than you portray, maybe due to no contact with C3S. Have a blessed day.
Thank you, Greeley. I will become acquainted with C3S immediately.
You're welcome. The full name is "Copernicus Climate Change Service" .eu Look for their "Climate Pulse" page, as it summarizes the annual heating/cooling in one multilayered graph. I look at this every day and record the "anomalies" for both land and sea. Have a blessed day.
Although I agree that we are headed toward an extinction level event, I don't see the evidence that we are heading toward it as quickly as you say. First of all, if you look at the annual temperature graphs, you'll see a lot of noise on a year to year basis. Two years is just way too short a time period from which to make accurate predictions; you can easily find two-year stretches in very recent years where the second year was cooler than the first. Yet no one thinks that this means we are in a long-term cooling trend. Also note that a large majority of the temperature increase in the most recent two years took place in 2023, whereas only a much smaller increase took place in 2024. You can't form an accurate long-term curve from just two points of rather noisy data.
Finally, as Hansen notes, a significant portion of that 0.4° temperature rise comes from the calling in of part of our "Faustian bargain," which in this case is essentially the elimination of sulfur emissions from international shipping. Hanson has shown rather convincingly that such elimination in a location with rather pristine air, along with the major secondary effect of reduced lower cloud cover, can have a major effect on temperature rise. It takes about 5 to 7 years for this effect to become negligible.
Nevertheless, both the data and the physical nature of the underlying processes of climate change indicate that we are on course for an exponential rise in temperatures. It's just that that rise will take a bit longer than you said. The exponential nature of this rise will end as all exponential rises do; namely, when the resources fueling it start to run out. A large population decline will decrease the demand for fossil fuels, and the loss of infrastructure needed to support their use on a large scale will reduce their contribution to global warming to negligible levels. However, as Hansen points out, this does not mean that global warming will cease within a few years, as mainstream climate science claims. Instead, the climate response time that he describes in his paper "Global Warming in the Pipeline" will ensure that warming continues, rising in the shape of an asymtotic curve, with 63% of this warming taking about a century. However, this assumes that no self-sustaining feedback loops are present at that point, which is far from certain.
I'm an 80yo lifelong scientist, BA chem/bio '67, MD '72, psych residency '74, U of Rochester Asst. prof. '74-'76, and 4 more med school appointments. And, you? Read the damn papers I cited, then get back to me with your from the hip critique, or not. No big diff. either way to an 80yo. Have a blessed day!
Great work, Richard. The rapidity with which our economic and social systems are going to break down will come as a shock to most. Your choice of mainstream news headlines well illustrates the concerted effort to keep the masses in the dark. While Trump plays the fool, fortress America is a real thing. A fight for Arctic resources by Russia, China and the US has long been foreseen.
https://geoffreydeihl.substack.com/p/massive-alaska-willow-drilling-project
I believe the slaughter in Gaza is part of this fortress as well, all that LNG just off the coast.
At the most critical juncture for humans AND animals in our biosphere’s history, we find ourselves being “led” by an overly flatulent, lazy conman who is 💯 percent oblivious to the real challenges facing our world. Not saying I believe in an anti-Christ, but if one was being designed, they couldn’t do better than Donald Drumpf.
This article https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/03/could-earth-reach-an-18C-rise-by-december-2026.html examines the possibility of an unsurvivable rise in global average temperature in the very near future. It makes you look positively optimistic :)
Holy fudge!
Fortunately, that's not going to happen. The physical processes involved just don't move that quickly. Also, it is highly questionable whether the Earth's climate system contains enough energy to produce such a rise. For example, in the Permian-Triassic mass extinction, the worst of the five great mass extinctions, temperatures rose a total of only 10°C, and that was over a period of millions of years.
Yes, you are of course right on the slow change associated with these processes.
But so far changes have been happening a lot (a relative term) faster than most have expected.
And 18 degrees in less than two years sure sounds downright crazy.
But, let's say the actual change will be only half of that? Or say, less than a quarter - at around 4 degrees.
"Only" those 4 degrees would be a catastrophe no matter.
Either way, I hope the Arctic News prognosis is a bad fantasy.
But these days it seems that almost anything can happen.
Another treasure trove of factual information, Richard. Thank you. The ultimate conclusions to be drawn from so much solid evidence are probably too emotionally overwhelming for a very large percentage of the human population. They just cannot allow themselves to go where the data lead. It will be our ultimate undoing. Keep on being a reliable voice of reason, please.
Thanks Richard for another dose of the real world as it is and will be.
While having accepted the future, I am at a loss for what to do - here and now.
is it better move to a smaller city, or move out in the woods.
Or stay where I am and try to make the best of it for me and my family.
But I know. In the end there is no way to escape what is coming.
This is what makes it so difficult to face everyday life - here and now.
We know, WE KNOW. We are inscrutably beyond fucked. We tried to do something about it, sort of, but "the powers that be" decided they didn't care, so that's it then. Just on a U.S. level alone, 2025 showed that "the people" don't really care. I would say they wouldn't care up until it affects them, but now I don't even think that's the case. People will be cheering this on until the very end. Humanity had a good run, I guess.
Here's more support for the collapse of civilization, focusing more on the political, military, and economic consequences (and sorry if I posted an earlier version of this paper):
Civilization will Collapse (High Confidence):
A Compendium of Relevant Biophysical, Political, Economic, Military, Health, and Psychological Information on Climate Change
Here is the latest version (which is updated weekly):
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xHvUneUT-1xx1W72yZTXpqrtNfIqUKB5oooOvwcw1OM/edit?usp=sharing
A slightly older version is available on the EarthArXiv preprint server:
https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/6520/
(Version 9, January 26, 2025)
If you are concerned about clicking links in emails received from people you don’t know, you can go to the EarthArXiv preprint server (https://eartharxiv.org/) and then search for “Demetrios Karis”
Thank you Richard...My husband and I, like you, are older (68 and 70) and our only dependents are 4 cats (2 youngsters and 2 elders)...We are (well, at least I am) very cognizant of the limited time frame here, and with my health issues, living even another 10 years is a real stretch...So with so little to lose, in terms of time and life goals, satisfactions, etc it is not hard to accept at least the idea of civilizational collapse occurring in my lifetime...What is hardest to watch right now is the dwindling of the natural world...Fewer animals, birds and insects are visiting our backyard...The weather is hot one day, snowing the next...At least sunrise and sunset are still reliable and beautiful...It is especially helpful for me, aside from the reassuring (in some sense- like I am not crazy, things are really getting bad) regularity of your missives, is the geopolitical explanation you offer now for the apparent madness going on in our government...And the obvious fact that no matter what they do this cannot be fixed...Wishing you well and should the need arise, here in northwest Indiana there is room for you (but probably not any more cats) in our humble home with a well stocked pantry and means of cooking and heating (probably less and less need for that) without electricity...All the best...And btw yes I read Jessica's article...Very helpful...Peace of mind to all...
A bit over my head all that but we have a documented case whereby the Earth recovers very quickly from Humankind’s pollution:
That is the film “The Year Earth Changed” hosted by famous David Attenborough, released in 2021. In one year during the near world wide Covid-19 shutdowns most industrial processes shut down, humans stayed indoors, and nature recovered in an amazing way.
You must see this film.
In the Crisis Report Richard Crim does a good job of creating a panic narrative.
The good news is that he is wrong on a bunch of fronts.
He assumes a strong causation between CO2 and temperature and we now no that to be an error.
Then he assumes that the proxy data for CO2 is calibrated with the recent physical measurements… we now know that is questionable.
He draws a lot of comparison between the impact of variable weather with climate change that even the IPCC has trouble validating.
He declares in contradiction to many scientists that the climate is in a positive feedback loop whereas its clear that it’s a negative self stabilizing mode.
He infers that all of the impact of any climate change is human induced whereas the science is far from settled on that.
We certainly should be planning focused adaption, but its not a climate emergency let alone an Armageddon as Crim would lead you to believe.
Once you have the honesty to understand that the IPCC and COP are political constructs, there should be little reliance on these groups for an accurate picture of the world's climate future. Skeptical commenters will be prone to use damaged or politically slanted information provided by the Trump administration going forward, citing "this international group reported" or "this governmental agency said". Such pronouncements will have no accuracy or honesty whatsoever.
I actually agree with you… trusting so called “official sources” politically subjugated has been a huge mistake.
The alternative is not to blindly move to other sources you want to believe…. but to dig into the facts to seek the truth…
The experts that are prepared to do that are to be listened too….. but only so far as they have facts that stack up…. So far it points to the need for little action.
The little action you refer to Nigel is the digging into facts to support or validate your specious claims and conjectures.
No its all very clear...show me any negative impact so far for the 1 deg C we have seen so far for the almost doubling of CO2?
I guess not!
Well, no.
Got proof? Scientific paper citations?
show me any negative impact so far for the 1 deg C we have seen so far for the almost doubling of CO2?
Do you mean any negative impact other than the Arctic loosing ice faster and faster, the seas getting warmer from all the extra energy they absorb?
To name a few examples.
1 degree increase does not impact as in flipping a switch, it is (of course) a longer process.
But that longer process gets shorter and shorter, and can now be followed from year to year rather than from the anticipated decade to decade - or even longer.
1 foot per century of sea rise is no problem
How about 10 to 15 ft by the end of this century, as predicted by some of the best climate scientists based on the most recent data?
You will have to show me your sources.... Its clearly not in any documents I have reviewed..... this would be a 10 to 15 times increase in past rates.