The Crisis Report - 104
It’s hard to see right now, and impossible for most people to mentally accept.
Our civilization is going to completely COLLAPSE over the next 25 years.
We waited too long. The “Climate Crisis” is about to become the “Climate Apocalypse”.
How many millions of years has it been since CO2 levels were this high?
ABOUT 12 MILLION.
Look at the first graph, see the surge in CO2 levels about 16mya to around 480ppm(CO2). That period is known as the Miocene Climatic Optimum (18-16mya). In the second graph, which shows temperatures, that period is the YELLOW line. Temperatures during this period were +5°C to +6°C over the 1850 baseline. During this period the Earth looked something like this.
That's what a CO2 level in the 480ppm to 550ppm range looks like in the geologic record. It was about +6°C to +8°C over our 1850 baseline temperature when CO2 levels were at 280ppm.
Natural CO2 levels tend to change VERY SLOWLY.
Mostly driven by changes in volcanic activity they happen over hundreds of thousands, even millions, of years. The alternating 180ppm(CO2) to 300ppm (CO2) that has been happening during the last million years of our “Ice House” Climate System has been blindingly fast by comparison.
That 120ppm “swing” in CO2 levels has produced a very consistent change of about +/-6°C of temperature change on our planet. At a rate of about +/-1°C per thousand years.
SO. For the last 800,000 years that we have direct ice core evidence for, increasing the CO2 level by +120ppm over a 7 to 8 thousand year period caused about +6°C of warming.
In just the last 175 years we have increased the CO2 level by over +145ppm.
WHY am I stressing this point, you ask?
Because, how you view that information determines if you are a “Crisis Denier” or a “Collapse Realist”
From “The Crisis Report — 44 : 2023 was a BAD year for the Earth’s Climate” (August 2024)
The growth rate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere jumped 86% in 2023 compared to 2022. The CO2 level increased by +3.51ppm in a SINGLE year.
2024 was just as bad.
The REASON that CO2 levels jumped up so fast between 2022 and 2023 was that the Terrestrial Land Sinks for CO2 “failed” in 2023.
Human Emissions rose +1.1% in 2023 to have reaching a record high of +37.55 GtCO₂
FYI- A single gigatonne is 1,000,000,000 tonnes, and is often used when discussing human carbon dioxide emissions. This is roughly the mass of all land mammals (other than humans) in the world. It’s also roughly twice the mass of all of the people in the world.
NORMALLY, the Terrestrial Land “Sinks” absorb about 25% of our CO2 emissions each year. That would have been about 9.35 GtCO2 in 2023.
In 2023, the Terrestrial Land Sinks only absorbed about 0.44 GtCO2.
Earth’s major carbon sinks collapsed in 2023. — Schib.com 072524
“Extreme heat, drought and wildfires caused forests and other land ecosystems to emit almost as much carbon dioxide as they removed from the atmosphere in 2023, nearly canceling out a major natural sink of the greenhouse gas.”
Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023 — This study was presented at the International Carbon Dioxide Conference in Manaus, Brazil, July 2024
So, about an extra +8 GtCO2 went into the atmosphere in 2023.
That extra 8 GtCO2 is why the CO2 count in Mauna Loa jumped so much in 2023. It’s what pushed us up past +3ppm in a single year.
2024 wasn’t any better. The implication being that the Terrestrial Land Sinks FAILED again in 2024.
CO2 levels have gone up almost +7ppm in just TWO YEARS!
Now, given what are we seeing in 2025.
Does it seem like 2025 is going to be “better” than 2024?
OR
Does it seem likely that we have crossed another tipping point?
We have increased the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) enough, the changes to the Climate System have degraded the biosphere to the point that it is loosing its ability to absorb and sequester CO2.
If the +3ppm yearly increase in the atmospheric CO2 level continues the consequences are very clear.
Starting at a CO2 level of 430ppm(CO2) in 2025.
The GHGs CO2 equivalent = +100ppm(CO2) (CH4 is at +1900ppb)
Albedo dimming forcing since 2014 = +100ppm(CO2) (per Hansen)
Our Current CO2(e) level = approximately +630ppm(CO2e)
Rate of CO2 Increase (RoCI) now approximately +3ppm per year.
A CO2(e) level of about 720ppm could be hit as early as 2050.
Paleoclimate data indicate that each 2XCO2 causes +8°C of warming.
180ppm to 360ppm caused +8°C of warming (we perceived it as +2°C of warming over our 1850 baseline of 280ppm).
Going from 360ppm to 720ppm seems increasingly likely to cause +8°C of additional warming. We will perceive that as +10°C of warming over our 1850 baseline of 280ppm(CO2).
NOW
We won’t get to +10°C by 2050, but it’s likely that amount of warming will be “locked in” at that point. A LOT of feedbacks will come into play pushing global temperatures up rapidly.
While Hansen thinks that “Global Warming in the Pipeline” could see temperatures of +10°C to +12°C as a result of these feedbacks. He also thinks this warming will take hundreds of years to play out.
I think we could see +10°C of warming before 2150.
Warming itself has become an “amplifying feedback”. The more the earth warms, the faster additional warming occurs. An accelerating feedback that won’t stop until a new balance between the solar energy entering the Climate System and the energy leaving the system is reached.
The evidence is everywhere now and becoming noticeable.
This year, a LA NINA year is the 2nd hottest Dec-Feb ever measured.
Just behind last year.
Which means that La Nina periods are now as hot as El Ninos used to be. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) has clearly dropped only a small amount over the last year.
We are probably going to get another +0.1°C of warming this year.
That will be about +0.6°C since 2020 (2020 GMST was +1.2°C over baseline).
That’s a Rate of Warming (RoW) of +0.12°C PER YEAR on average.
It also probably means another El Nino in 2026 with temperatures starting at +1.8°C over baseline. So, +2°C for months during 2026/2027 and massive agriculture failures across the planet.
Hansen still thinks the RoW will drop as the EEI balances out in response to the warming “unmasked” between 2020 and 2023. He thinks the RoW will be large this year but under +0.1°C. Then dropping back to a RoW around +0.36°C per decade.
So far, there are no signs of this.
It looks like the “Climate Crisis” is about to become the “Climate Apocalypse”.
Now, what the fuck do you do with this information?
How does one “live” through the “Collapse of Civilization” and the “End of the World”?
LOOK, if you are reading my reports and analysis then you know that “climate change” has intensified enough to become a “Climate Crisis”. I know from comments and chats that a few of you, my dear readers, completely agree with me and view current events as signs of accelerating COLLAPSE. That's about 1/3rd of you.
About 2/3rds of my readers, despite believing that climate change is reaching “crisis level”, are still resistant to the idea that it will cause civilizational collapse over the next 30 years.
Right now, that's still a “bridge to far” for most people. Even the most “woke” have a hard time accepting that our entire world is about to buckle and fall apart under the stress. It just seems impossible when “life as we know it” seems to be continuing on uninterrupted and EVERYONE in a “position of authority” keeps saying that there is nothing to worry about.
I mean, how seriously can you take someone telling you that COLLAPSE is imminent when main stream media (MSM) is still mostly filled with articles like this?
Only 28% of U.S. residents regularly hear about climate change in the media. — Yale Climate Connections 03/14/25
Steak 'n Shake was struggling. It turned to beef tallow - and MAGA.
The company framed the move as a business decision for tastier french fries, but it's hard to miss the appeals to…www.washingtonpost.com
Soak in these 9 hot springs destinations from the Yukon to Mexico
These nine North American areas are filled with mineral hot springs that are great for aches, pains and the cold…www.washingtonpost.com
Analysis | Gucci's new designer needs to prove everyone wrong
Demna Gvasalia's provocative work for Balenciaga rubbed many the wrong way. But he could offer struggling Gucci a jolt…www.washingtonpost.com
How Some Investors Are Protecting Their Money Amid Stock Market Woes
Some people are shifting their investment strategies as the stock market sours on President Trump, despite advice to…www.nytimes.com
The 30 Best TV Shows on Netflix Right Now
Some of the best shows on the streaming giant right now include "Running Point," "Outlander," "Lost" and "Sex…www.nytimes.com
'Absolutely Ridiculous': Democrats Seethe at Schumer for Backing G.O.P. Spending Bill
Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, continued to face criticism from members of his own party after he reversed…www.nytimes.com
Things still seem fairly “normal” so it's difficult for the majority of my “First World” readers to accept that ALL of that could be gone in as little as 5 –10 years. Although the warning signs are getting clearer and clearer.
Tornadoes, wildfires and blinding dust sweep across US as massive storm leaves at least 32 dead — AP News 03/16/25
Storm Risk Shifts to East Coast
Forecasters said there was a slight risk on Sunday of severe storms and tornadoes from northern Florida to central…www.nytimes.com
Tropical forests are struggling to keep pace with climate change
Tropical forests are struggling to keep pace with climate change. Scientists warn that slow adaptation could threaten…www.earth.com
Cascading extreme weather events unleash billions in damages globally
Compound weather events are poised to wreak even greater havoc as the planet heats up and weather whiplash spreads…www.straitstimes.com
A World Without Clouds
A state-of-the-art supercomputer simulation indicates that a feedback loop between global warming and cloud loss can…www.quantamagazine.org
Climate change: La Niña may be losing its ability to keep global warming in check, say scientists
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early summer this year, with above normal temperatures and…www.telegraphindia.com
Microplastics hinder plant photosynthesis, study finds, threatening millions with starvation
Researchers say problem could increase number of people at risk of starvation by 400m in next two decades…..www.theguardian.com
Less Ice, More Flowers
Antarctica is Warming Rapidly…..sfg.media
NASA analysis shows unexpected amount of sea level rise in 2024
Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal…phys.org
NASA study confirms sea level rise doubled in 2024, sends out alarm bells across coastal regions
A NASA-led study has confirmed that global sea level rise doubled in 2024, primarily driven by the record-breaking…americanbazaaronline.com
“According to NASA’s analysis, the global sea level rose by 0.23 inches (0.59 cm) per year in 2024, significantly exceeding the projected annual increase of 0.17 inches (0.43 cm). Since 1993, global sea levels have risen by approximately four inches (10 cm), but the rapid acceleration observed in 2024 marks a troubling departure from historical trends.”
Spain to face increasingly 'severe' droughts: report
Spain, which is nearing the end of a years-long drought, can expect such dry spells to become increasingly "frequent…phys.org
Potent March storm to deliver a dangerous, multi-pronged extreme weather onslaught " Yale Climate…
As the 100th anniversary of the nation's deadliest tornado nears, a major tornado outbreak looms from the…yaleclimateconnections.org
Wildfires Quickly Spread Across Texas and Oklahoma
In Oklahoma alone, more than 150 blazes were burning, which have destroyed almost 300 structures and killed at least…www.nytimes.com
AS WE APPROACH +2°C OF WARMING, OUR WORLD IS BEGINNING TO COME APART.
Right now, with things like the “egg shortage” and the price hikes to chocolate and coffee, we are seeing the harbingers of the agricultural collapse to come. VERY SOON these “specialty crop failures” are going to turn into staple grain crop failures and 100’s of millions are going to start dying EVERY YEAR from hunger, disease, and violence.
STARTING IN THESE PLACES.
Which could explain why the MAGAts have decided to stop sending food to Africa.
Rubio says 83% of USAid programs terminated after six-week purge
Surviving aid to be administered by state department in radical narrowing of definition of US national interest…..www.theguardian.com
And, why they are shutting down the ability of people across the world from traveling to the US.
Trump administration mulling new travel restrictions on citizens from dozens of countries
New memo lists 41 countries - including Afghanistan, Cuba and Syria - that could face new restrictions, evoking…www.theguardian.com
Countries considered for Trump's potential new travel ban
The memo lists 41 countries divided into three groups…..www.reuters.com
Basically halting the flow of a potential wave of climate refugees from reaching the US by air or sea. We also seem poised to try and shut down the Southern Border. Not at the border with Mexico, but at the Panama Canal.
Trump orders ideas from Pentagon for 'unfettered' access to Panama canal, officials say
Document described as interim national security guidance calls on US military to create options…..www.theguardian.com
It's also looking as if the US is planning to seize control of both Mexico and Canada.
Why so many top Republicans want to go to war in Mexico
An astonishingly bad Trump idea that's gotten popular very quickly…..www.vox.com
How US military action against drug cartels in Mexico could unfold
A potential four-part scenario can be constructed by examining recent developments in the US-Mexico relationship and US…www.atlanticcouncil.org
Trump's threat to annex Canada 'a real thing,' Trudeau tells business leaders | CNN
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a business gathering on Friday that US President Donald Trump's threat to…edition.cnn.com
Which would pretty much complete a “Fortress America” for us to retreat into while billions starve and the world disintegrates into chaos.
It’s clear that US leadership, no matter what it says publicly, is getting ready for a Climate Apocalypse and a “New World Order”. The SPEED at which they are moving indicates they expect things to start getting BAD very soon now.
SO, if you live in the US, that’s what your government seems to be doing. In addition to a “soft coup” and a clampdown of society.
Trump's FBI Moves to Criminally Charge Major Climate Groups
The Trump administration is targeting climate organizations that received a Biden-era grant….newrepublic.com
Even if you “do nothing” right now and take a “wait and see” position these are things that are likely going to happen. Or at least be attempted.
There isn’t going to be anywhere you can run to, or anything you can do to prevent this from happening. The time for that is decades in the past. Now we are ALL going to have to live through the death of the only world any of us have known and the chaos of a climate that is going to become increasingly hostile to the production of food at any kind of scale.
WARMING won’t stop when we hit +2°C around 2030. We will continue warming to +3°C and there is a 50/50 chance we will hit that grim milestone by 2050.
By +3°C the estimate is that roughly 50% of the global population will be dead.
We are LITERALLY in the “End Times”.
Now, what the fuck do you do with this information?
I still don’t have a good answer.
But I read a piece by Jessica Wildflower recently that I thought was a good start.
We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse
It's time to commit…..www.the-sentinel-intelligence.com
She starts by saying.
My family and I finally started having the talk.
I asked, “Do you want to be pioneers?”
“Are you up for that, or not?”
My family decided no, they’re not ready to go hardcore pioneer with minimal electricity. They admire the spirit, but it’s too much. They don’t want to downgrade the home and find some little cabin where we can hunker down. They don’t want to spend hot summers hiding inside caves.
They want to hang on in the suburbs for as long as possible.
So, that’s what we’re going to do.
I am in my 60’s and I have health issues. Realistically I wouldn't expect to live much more than 10 more years even if the world wasn’t about to go over the edge into the Abyss. I don’t have children and other than three elderly cats I don/t have anyone depending on me.
My “plan” is to “observe, analyze, and report” as long as possible. However, I realize that this is a VERY privileged position. Most of you have family that you love and want to protect. Most of you want to live longer than another 5 to 10 years. Most of you are struggling with what to do with the knowledge I have given you.
Maybe it’s time that you FINALLY started having “the talk” with the ones you love.
Before it comes to this, because you waited so long trying to “be sure” that all of your options were gone.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 03/16/2025
Addendum:
Need I say more?
Thank you Richard. I wish I had as rosey a perspective on the future as you do. (not being facetious).
CO2 is a bad measure. Global warming gases (as CO2) is the better measure. By that with a 100 yr timeframe we are about 550-560 ppm. On a real scale measuring current impacts we more like 750. Those numbers put us back 30-35 million years ago fir the last time the earth was here. Mankind has maybe a decade or two to go before full collapse kills us. And with the burn it all option now in vogue, we seem likely to add another 30-50 ppm to the 550 number and another 60-70 to the 75- number. That only pushes us back another couple million years. Either way, ice free earth here we come. Welcome to the Oligocene - coming soon to a planet near you. And maybe, just maybe - welcome to the Eocene.
Thanks Richard, an excellent analysis as always.
I note that whilst you mention CO2(e), Carbon Dioxide levels with Methane effects included, the graphs are just registering 430ppm rather than the 530ppm or more with the fast- increasing contributions of methane and other CO2 equivalents. Of course, that addition seems to make it all so much worse.
I am also interested in the effects of sea level rise, both from ice melt and from expanding warmer waters, and whether the slow timeline with long lag will change. Sea levels in previous times with these CO2 levels were tens of metres higher, which suggests that such rises are 'baked in'(literally), so the question becomes 'How fast?'
I am also concerned about increasing tectonic activity from ice cover melt at the poles and Greenland allowing rebound, and the warmer seas allowing tectonic plates to expand. On the one hand, increasing earthquake and volcanic activity may make some densely populated regions unliveable, but on the other hand, a large volcanic eruption might even change the reflectivity of the planet and cool the climate.
I am 70 so am hoping for another decade of reasonable survival as the news around me gets worse and worse. Best I can manage to hope for.
On a personal note, at the moment I am wondering whether it is better to stay in this small and resilient town in France, relatively safe and with suitable local resources, where I might survive for longer (do I really want to?), or to 'go out in style' by selling up and moving to a more happening and fun city for my remaining few years. My mind switches, almost day by day. I suspect many of us are going through similar calculations.
I think the psychological impacts will be as dangerous to us all as the physical ones, with hopelessness, depression, insanity for those unable to accept, suicide, and expressions of anger and violence, all becoming more and more commonplace. Worse in America, with all those guns......
I am also aware, and your post reinforces this, that here in Europe we will need to deal with a flood of migrants from Africa that will either be stopped by increasing force and State violence, or will swamp the southern European and Mediterranean countries. Our remaining days are likely to become increasingly brutal.
Is Trump on the right path? For rich Americans, I can see that they may think so. Secure the remaining resources and let all the poor, sick, old and non-productive people die off. They will live in a world of isolation of course, rich pariahs, too scared to go outside in case someone kills them, each in their lonely bunkers of privilège. Alive perhaps, but not really living. I think I'd rather stay here in Europe and take my chances.
Keep the information flowing please, Richard. I understand the task you have set yourself is a difficult, perhaps one with personal costs, but we do appreciate your intelligence and integrity, however hard the truth may be for us to absorb, accept and understand.
Thanks!