Sorry, brother, but I'll stick with hard data from C3S and really don't care much for models unless they're extrapolations from hard data sets. So, C3S published "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action" on 7-18-24, in which they gave 0.75 degC as the global temp increase over the 1991-2020 baseline since the beginning of this decade, so 3.5yrs., which is 0.214 degC for an annual ave. temp increase, which extrapolates to 1 degC increase every 5 yrs. and 6 degC by 2047, when any child unfortunate enough to be born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD. Fortunately for those unborn children, 47% of 18-50 yo Americans surveyed recently are choosing to forgo reproduction for a number of reasons, including climate collapse.
C3S is the abbreviation for "Copernicus Climate Change Service", a website funded by the EU and, IMHO, the most reliable. I especially check their "Climate Pulse" page daily, and they'll send periodic articles, if you sign-up. No charge.
trying to wrap my head around the temperature gradient. current gradient goes from hot tropics to cold arctic regions. if the arctic is warming 4x faster than the tropics, does it mean there will be a time when it is more desirable to be on the equator than to be in the northern areas, until equilibrium of course?
I recall some data (some time ago) that collated ground surface temperatures during the flight ban after 9/11, when the skies cleared of contrails and the ground traffic pollution dropped.. If I recall correctly it showed increases over pre-9/11 readings of between 3*and 5* (but I may be wrong on those numbers - I remember the surprise at the almost-instant effects more than the details). Might be worth a look if you can find them.
Ditto the data during Covid, but you are doubtless using that already.
Secondly, if or when AMOC turns off, will it refreeze the Artic at, say 3* or 4* global warming? And if yes, totally or just the Atlantic side? Or just in winter but not in summer?
I declare a considerable personal interest - I have a lot riding on what happens to AMOC in my remaining 10 or 20 years! 🙂
Sorry, brother, but I'll stick with hard data from C3S and really don't care much for models unless they're extrapolations from hard data sets. So, C3S published "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action" on 7-18-24, in which they gave 0.75 degC as the global temp increase over the 1991-2020 baseline since the beginning of this decade, so 3.5yrs., which is 0.214 degC for an annual ave. temp increase, which extrapolates to 1 degC increase every 5 yrs. and 6 degC by 2047, when any child unfortunate enough to be born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD. Fortunately for those unborn children, 47% of 18-50 yo Americans surveyed recently are choosing to forgo reproduction for a number of reasons, including climate collapse.
Sorry friend, I'm ignorant of C3S, would you mind pointing me in the right direction?
C3S is the abbreviation for "Copernicus Climate Change Service", a website funded by the EU and, IMHO, the most reliable. I especially check their "Climate Pulse" page daily, and they'll send periodic articles, if you sign-up. No charge.
trying to wrap my head around the temperature gradient. current gradient goes from hot tropics to cold arctic regions. if the arctic is warming 4x faster than the tropics, does it mean there will be a time when it is more desirable to be on the equator than to be in the northern areas, until equilibrium of course?
Two comments:
I recall some data (some time ago) that collated ground surface temperatures during the flight ban after 9/11, when the skies cleared of contrails and the ground traffic pollution dropped.. If I recall correctly it showed increases over pre-9/11 readings of between 3*and 5* (but I may be wrong on those numbers - I remember the surprise at the almost-instant effects more than the details). Might be worth a look if you can find them.
Ditto the data during Covid, but you are doubtless using that already.
Secondly, if or when AMOC turns off, will it refreeze the Artic at, say 3* or 4* global warming? And if yes, totally or just the Atlantic side? Or just in winter but not in summer?
I declare a considerable personal interest - I have a lot riding on what happens to AMOC in my remaining 10 or 20 years! 🙂