Short Takes - 04
A Random Thought on a Sunday Afternoon — Field Notes on the Climate Apocalypse.
SO. I was thinking about Arctic, or Polar, Amplification today. Suddenly it occurred to me that it can be used to determine CLIMATE SENSITIVITY.
I know that a lot of people here still listen to “mainstream” Climate Science and the IPCC models and forecasts. Almost EVERYONE does, that’s why they are “mainstream”.
In those models 2XCO2 is believed to be +2.6°C to +3.6°C.
If you have been reading my stuff, you know that.
These models are based on what ONE Faction of Climate Science, the Moderates, observed about the Climate System in 1979.
The models of the Moderates only recently dropped estimates lower that +2.6°C. We are ALREADY at +1.5°C at 420ppm CO2 levels. Holding onto +1.8°C seems ridiculous in the face of that reality.
To believe in +2.6°C as an estimate, you have to believe that adding another 140ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere will only warm the earth another +1°C. That’s what the “Hopium Peddlers” are asking you to believe in.
In 1979 the Moderates OBSERVED about +0.6°C of warming from a +80ppm increase in the CO2 level. Based on that, they predicted 2XCO2 would be just +1.8°C to +3°C.
They MIGHT have gotten it WRONG in 1979.
In the paper “Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality. Nature Climate Change, 2020; DOI: 10.1038/s41558–020–0699-y” the authors find that:
Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions,” said lead author Zheng. “This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change.”
“Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970.”
Well, OH FUCK. That’s where the “missing heat” was. The SOx aerosols were “masking” it by increasing the albedo and making the Earth more reflective.
If this is correct, then instead of the +0.6°C we observed in 1979 from adding +80ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere, there was actually about +1.3°C of warming from that +80ppm.
If that’s true, then 2XCO2 is going to be +4.5°C or more.
Just like the PHYSICS said it would be.
The OTHER Faction in Climate Science, the Alarmists, predicted in 1979 that based on “the physics”, 2XCO2 would be +4.5°C to +6.0°C. Their models STILL predict that much warming at 2XCO2.
At 420ppm they predict +4°C to +5°C of warming.
When you look around at the world today, +1.5°C of warming looks pretty bad. Things were ugly last year and are QUICKLY getting WORSE.
Mainstream Climate Scientists SWEAR to us all that they are “100% Confident” that there is no such thing as “Locked In” warming. They PROMISE that if we get to “Net Zero” the Global Temperature will stop going up.
Polar Amplification shows them to be “misinformed”.
Arctic Amplification reveals “how much” warming we have actually LOCKED IN.
At +1.0°C of Global Warming, we observed +4.0°C of warming in the High Arctic.
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)
This indicates a Equilibrium Ratio of 4 to 1. As well as a Warming Ratio of 4 to 1.
2. The High Arctic warms 4X faster than overall planetary warming. This is known as Arctic Amplification.
3. This warming builds up at the poles and reduces the temperature differential between the Equator and each Pole. The Latitudinal Equator to Pole Temperature Gradient becomes more shallow.
4. The temperature at the Poles doesn’t build up forever. A new equilibrium is reached between the Equator and Pole.
5. The DELAY in reaching equilibrium is SMALL. HEAT moves efficiently from the equator to the poles. The “lag” between ENERGY going into the Climate System and then reaching the High Arctic turns out to be LOW. It isn’t more than 12 to 24 months, at best.
6. So, the warming at the Poles tells us what equilibrium will be like at the current level of CO2.
At +1.0°C we observed +4°C of warming in the Arctic. This means we will get +4°C of Global Warming and +16°C of Polar Warming by the time thermal equilibrium is reached and balance restored.
Conclusion.
The High Arctic will warm 4 times faster and at least 4 times as much as the earth overall.
The South Pole will warm 2 times faster and at least 2 times as much as the earth overall.
REALITY CHECK.
The paleoclimate data indicates +4°C of warming at CO2 levels of 420ppm (current level) with about +16°C to +20°C of warming in the High Arctic.
We have LOCKED IN at least +4°C of warming as of NOW.
The Climate System is CLEARLY telling us that.
At the current Rate of Warming of +0.36°C per decade, we will hit +4°C around 2090.
Things are MUCH WORSE than anyone realizes YET.
2023 was the “tipping point”.
Collapse is ACCELERATING.
No matter what you see around you. It will only take a couple of years of bad harvests to change EVERYTHING.
Our REALITY is FRAGILE.
It depends on the weather.
The forecast is for STORMS.
-rc 092924
Sorry, brother, but I'll stick with hard data from C3S and really don't care much for models unless they're extrapolations from hard data sets. So, C3S published "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action" on 7-18-24, in which they gave 0.75 degC as the global temp increase over the 1991-2020 baseline since the beginning of this decade, so 3.5yrs., which is 0.214 degC for an annual ave. temp increase, which extrapolates to 1 degC increase every 5 yrs. and 6 degC by 2047, when any child unfortunate enough to be born today may celebrate (?) his/her 23rd BD. Fortunately for those unborn children, 47% of 18-50 yo Americans surveyed recently are choosing to forgo reproduction for a number of reasons, including climate collapse.
trying to wrap my head around the temperature gradient. current gradient goes from hot tropics to cold arctic regions. if the arctic is warming 4x faster than the tropics, does it mean there will be a time when it is more desirable to be on the equator than to be in the northern areas, until equilibrium of course?