005 - Global Warming accelerated between 2010 and 2020. Do you know the current “rate of warming” for Global Warming? You should, that number is the NUMBER that controls what the rest of your life is going to be like.
006 - Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part One.
007 – Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Two. The Earth's Albedo has dimmed since the 90's. In the clinical language of science, this is an "unexpected feedback".
008 – Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Three. Additional notes on Albedo Diminishment. I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad.
009 - Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Four. We know from the Earthshine Project, and the NASA CERES observations, that the Earth's Albedo has dimmed. The question is, "why"?
010 - Most people don't think about clouds very much. They should.
RE: The EEI going down.
The EEI represents an "imbalance".
The Imbalance is between the amount of ENERGY going into the Climate System and the TEMPERATURE of the Planet.
A positive EEI means that the planet is NOT HOT ENOUGH.
To restore "balance" the planet has to "warm up" until equilibrium is restored.
It's "fringe" because NO "mainstream" scientists are willing to SEE and SAY what I'm saying. Hansen and company are the closest and they are not regarded as "mainstream".
Despite the "unprecedented" warming, how many interviews or articles have you seen featuring Hansen?
It’s interesting how some think being hopeful or optimistic is edgy or novel. As if, oh wow I hadn’t considered that angle before! And the propaganda machine just eats it up. It’s all just noise.
The way they go ON and ON about how "influential" the Doomers are. You would think EVERYONE was a "doomer".
Every accredited scientist who got the "doomer" label stuck on them has had their career ruined. I can attest that being a "doomer" on Medium and Substack GREATLY limits your audience. Compare my stats to say "Heated" by Emily Atkins.
She does mainstream climate reporting and has over 95,000 subscribers.
Being a Doomer puts you in a VERY small minority.
We must ALL be VERY influential if EVERYONE thinks that it's over and pointless to do anything.
Can you say, "Doomers be SCAPEGOATS".
We are literally being told "Don't Look Up" and are too blind to realize it.
The standard answer is that a "doomer" is predicting DOOM and the Collapse of Civilization. This is seen as BAD because it.
1. Isn't true.
2. Causes people to "give up" and stop trying/working for change.
That's the messaging in all the "hopium" books and documentaries. They argue that, "If we DO NOTHING, then we really will be DOOMED".
Which is true.
The issue is that Doomers rarely say "do nothing but enjoy the time we have". That is a LIE pushed by the "Techno Optimists".
What they HATE about Doomers is that we argue for REAL CHANGE.
We argue that to actually "fix" things we are going to have to RADICALLY change how human life on our planet is structured. We tend to argue for World Government, humane immigration policies, supplying everyone with the basics, no accumulation of massive personal fortunes, etc.
Doomers tend to be "anti capitalist". That's our UNFORGIVABLE SIN.
We don't think the "free market solutions" touted by the Techno Wizards are going to save us.
"The way they go on and on" that they're doubling down so hard on the doomers being too influential, and the optimism, it's a bit doth protest too much.
On the Wallach series; Can't even make it past the opening. You know why they went with Grimes ugh, and the opening song being about being sexually assaulted...maybe go with another guys.
These authors have a fantasy human created in their own mind for this optimism. A person that is so stupid that they won't pay attention until their own house is on fire . . . and then, Presto! Changeover! They become smart and responsible and will work together for the good of all. Do these authors live in my world? Here in reality stupid people stay stupid, and the only change from crisis is they become more selfish and violent.
You know it's a form of denial. Just because you are well educated and very aware of circumstances doesn't mean your mind is capable of seeing the truth. For me, this isn't something that scares me. I live for crazy. But if I were say 30 years-old, with a family and a hoped for future, well . . . maybe I would be in denial too.
CO2 is at 420ppm. However CH4 (Methane) levels are also at record breaking levels. When you combine them and the other "lesser" gases like ozone, nitrous oxide, etc. Hansen calculates that the total effect is EQUIVALENT to 530ppm CO2e.
There is some dispute about this number involving how much warming you think is attributable to some of these gases and how much is actually ALBEDO dimming. Which is why Sam Thomas is saying 563ppm CO2e. That's the top end of the range.
I'm more "conservative" and I think some of the HEAT in their calculations is albedo heat and not CH4 heat. Which is why I am sticking with Hansen's estimate for now.
Thank you. Now I know that it's worse than I imagined. I'm just glad I had a life before this all started. I can't imagine being young and facing the now unavoidable disaster.
Well, as i see it with the rising temperatures albedo must decline even further because of additional loss of ice and winter snow coverage. Also ashes from wildfires. Doesn't that mean that your values are also "optimistic"?
There are numerous feedbacks that are coming into play. The loss of seasonal snow cover, the impending Blue Ocean Event when all the Arctic Ice melts during the summer, the "dimming" of Greenland due to soot from the Boreal Forests.
To name just a few of the BIG ones.
Trying to account for ALL of it is OVERWHELMING for both me as a writer/analyst and for my readers. It's TOO MUCH at once.
You have to MASTER the FUNDAMENTALS before you get down into the weeds.
It might seem overwhelming, but really I believe that listing them all out (things driving albedo loss) in a single article would be a good move. I don't think it matters if the "amounts/impacts" of each is defined - because no one knows for sure yet. But the direction of all increasing from here progressively seems a reasonable logical conclusion. I like who you write btw. and lay things out. It's cool. easy going, easy to follow. thanks for your efforts of collating the info. :-) sean
There's a saying that the last 100 years are repeating themselves in this century. They seem to be, but not in the same ways as the last century.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were what ended the world wars and it was such a huge psychological impact that leaders globally came together to maintain peace (how effective that was is another discussion).
I think for us, Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be climate induced. They probably will be so horrific that it will result in massive changes on how to handle climate change. But yeah, might be too late for some of us.
Thanks for writing this. Can you give an explain why EEI will go down?
Any reason why albedo is decreasing?
The ALBEDO decline is due to either.
A. Clouds
B. SOx washout.
C. A+B
My first posts here discuss this in detail.
005 - Global Warming accelerated between 2010 and 2020. Do you know the current “rate of warming” for Global Warming? You should, that number is the NUMBER that controls what the rest of your life is going to be like.
006 - Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part One.
007 – Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Two. The Earth's Albedo has dimmed since the 90's. In the clinical language of science, this is an "unexpected feedback".
008 – Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Three. Additional notes on Albedo Diminishment. I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad.
009 - Heat doesn't "just happen". Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us. Part Four. We know from the Earthshine Project, and the NASA CERES observations, that the Earth's Albedo has dimmed. The question is, "why"?
010 - Most people don't think about clouds very much. They should.
RE: The EEI going down.
The EEI represents an "imbalance".
The Imbalance is between the amount of ENERGY going into the Climate System and the TEMPERATURE of the Planet.
A positive EEI means that the planet is NOT HOT ENOUGH.
To restore "balance" the planet has to "warm up" until equilibrium is restored.
A +1.65W/m2 EEI is a HUGE Positive Imbalance.
Hence the +0.45C Rate of Warming.
Thank you for all you do in advocating and explaining.
Once again, thank you for your work!!
Brilliant work. Required reading!
I appreciate my readers. I know that this is a "fringe" position at the moment. NO ONE "wants" to believe what these numbers are saying.
That doesn't change them.
I ordered the Goodell book. I had never heard of it before this article. At least I got something out of it.
Why is it a fringe position though? The charts are based on measurements, right? Its not fringe because its invalid, its fringe because…… idk.
It's "fringe" because NO "mainstream" scientists are willing to SEE and SAY what I'm saying. Hansen and company are the closest and they are not regarded as "mainstream".
Despite the "unprecedented" warming, how many interviews or articles have you seen featuring Hansen?
It’s interesting how some think being hopeful or optimistic is edgy or novel. As if, oh wow I hadn’t considered that angle before! And the propaganda machine just eats it up. It’s all just noise.
Thanks for another reality check on “Earth day”.
Yeah, it's weird isn't it?
The way they go ON and ON about how "influential" the Doomers are. You would think EVERYONE was a "doomer".
Every accredited scientist who got the "doomer" label stuck on them has had their career ruined. I can attest that being a "doomer" on Medium and Substack GREATLY limits your audience. Compare my stats to say "Heated" by Emily Atkins.
She does mainstream climate reporting and has over 95,000 subscribers.
Being a Doomer puts you in a VERY small minority.
We must ALL be VERY influential if EVERYONE thinks that it's over and pointless to do anything.
Can you say, "Doomers be SCAPEGOATS".
We are literally being told "Don't Look Up" and are too blind to realize it.
What really makes one a “doomer”? Whats that line into doomerism?
The standard answer is that a "doomer" is predicting DOOM and the Collapse of Civilization. This is seen as BAD because it.
1. Isn't true.
2. Causes people to "give up" and stop trying/working for change.
That's the messaging in all the "hopium" books and documentaries. They argue that, "If we DO NOTHING, then we really will be DOOMED".
Which is true.
The issue is that Doomers rarely say "do nothing but enjoy the time we have". That is a LIE pushed by the "Techno Optimists".
What they HATE about Doomers is that we argue for REAL CHANGE.
We argue that to actually "fix" things we are going to have to RADICALLY change how human life on our planet is structured. We tend to argue for World Government, humane immigration policies, supplying everyone with the basics, no accumulation of massive personal fortunes, etc.
Doomers tend to be "anti capitalist". That's our UNFORGIVABLE SIN.
We don't think the "free market solutions" touted by the Techno Wizards are going to save us.
"The way they go on and on" that they're doubling down so hard on the doomers being too influential, and the optimism, it's a bit doth protest too much.
On the Wallach series; Can't even make it past the opening. You know why they went with Grimes ugh, and the opening song being about being sexually assaulted...maybe go with another guys.
These authors have a fantasy human created in their own mind for this optimism. A person that is so stupid that they won't pay attention until their own house is on fire . . . and then, Presto! Changeover! They become smart and responsible and will work together for the good of all. Do these authors live in my world? Here in reality stupid people stay stupid, and the only change from crisis is they become more selfish and violent.
Yeah, I couldn't get through her book. I kept yelling at the pages and writing notes on them. I had hoped for more from a sociologist.
You know it's a form of denial. Just because you are well educated and very aware of circumstances doesn't mean your mind is capable of seeing the truth. For me, this isn't something that scares me. I live for crazy. But if I were say 30 years-old, with a family and a hoped for future, well . . . maybe I would be in denial too.
Alas. We are already at 563 ppm CO2(e).
I thought it was 420 something?
CO2 is at 420ppm. However CH4 (Methane) levels are also at record breaking levels. When you combine them and the other "lesser" gases like ozone, nitrous oxide, etc. Hansen calculates that the total effect is EQUIVALENT to 530ppm CO2e.
There is some dispute about this number involving how much warming you think is attributable to some of these gases and how much is actually ALBEDO dimming. Which is why Sam Thomas is saying 563ppm CO2e. That's the top end of the range.
I'm more "conservative" and I think some of the HEAT in their calculations is albedo heat and not CH4 heat. Which is why I am sticking with Hansen's estimate for now.
OK, thank you. Now I feel much better . . . HA, HA, HA . . . we are all going to die!
The (e) is important.
Here's a place where you can give wealth to and implies doing so they will use it to reduce the number.
https://350.org/
No word from them on how effective their wealth collection efforts are, nor how effective their CO2 reduction methods are.
Thank you. Now I know that it's worse than I imagined. I'm just glad I had a life before this all started. I can't imagine being young and facing the now unavoidable disaster.
Another great article.
Canada's wildfires have already started https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/wildfire-near-canada-s-oil-sands-city-prompts-evacuation-alert
Thats assuming they actually stopped...https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68228943
Thank you Richard...Such clear explanations...
Well, as i see it with the rising temperatures albedo must decline even further because of additional loss of ice and winter snow coverage. Also ashes from wildfires. Doesn't that mean that your values are also "optimistic"?
ABSOLUTELY.
There are numerous feedbacks that are coming into play. The loss of seasonal snow cover, the impending Blue Ocean Event when all the Arctic Ice melts during the summer, the "dimming" of Greenland due to soot from the Boreal Forests.
To name just a few of the BIG ones.
Trying to account for ALL of it is OVERWHELMING for both me as a writer/analyst and for my readers. It's TOO MUCH at once.
You have to MASTER the FUNDAMENTALS before you get down into the weeds.
It might seem overwhelming, but really I believe that listing them all out (things driving albedo loss) in a single article would be a good move. I don't think it matters if the "amounts/impacts" of each is defined - because no one knows for sure yet. But the direction of all increasing from here progressively seems a reasonable logical conclusion. I like who you write btw. and lay things out. It's cool. easy going, easy to follow. thanks for your efforts of collating the info. :-) sean
There's a saying that the last 100 years are repeating themselves in this century. They seem to be, but not in the same ways as the last century.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were what ended the world wars and it was such a huge psychological impact that leaders globally came together to maintain peace (how effective that was is another discussion).
I think for us, Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be climate induced. They probably will be so horrific that it will result in massive changes on how to handle climate change. But yeah, might be too late for some of us.