The Crisis Report - 49

The Earth’s Climate System - A Short Users Guide. Part 02.

Arctic Amplification — Understanding why the Polar Zones are warming 4X faster than the rest of the planet.

This is our planet NOW. ALL of it, is HOTTER than in was between 1950-1980. (From NASA/GISS site). They are minimizing the effect of Arctic Amplification, do you see how?

The ARCTIC is warming much, MUCH FASTER than the rest of the Earth.

Why is that?

This is May 16th. The chart is NOT TEMPERATURE READINGS. The chart is ANOMALY READINGS. It's showing you how much ABOVE/below the temperatures were, compared to the AVERAGE for that date. Parts of Canada were +16C above average.

The term for this is “ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION” or “AA”.

Here's how it works.

A car engine is a “closed loop” heat engine. Much like the Earth.

Let me explain Arctic Amplification using a familiar “easy to visualize” analogy. It's easy to get bogged down in details when thinking about the Climate System. But, as explained in Part 01 of this User Guide, the Earth’s Climate System can be stripped down to a very basic, very easy to understand level.

The Earth’s Climate System stripped down to it's most basic level.

HEAT enters at the Equator—→HEAT flows to the poles—→HEAT exits into space.

The DIFFERENCE between the Amount of HEAT that ENTERS the system each year and the Amount of HEAT that LEAVES, is basically the amount of heat energy IN THE SYSTEM that translates into the Global Mean Temperature.

That's it.

That's the Climate System stripped down to it’s most basic level.

Now of course things get much more complex when you start drilling down into the details. But, in the end the Climate System is about HEAT. Where it comes from, how it flows, where it goes, and what happens when it gets there.

If you want to understand the Climate System, “follow the HEAT”.

Consider how this HEAT ENGINE works. The engine is cooled by water flowing over the “hot zone”. Pulling heat away and carrying it to the radiator. Where it cools and is pumped through the engine again.

So,

Everyone who has ever had a car, knows that when you turn it on, the engine gets hot. Combustion engines produce heat. Combustion means “to burn”, and burning things releases HEAT ENERGY.

In fact, combustion engines produce so much HEAT, that most of them will overheat to the point of self destruction if not adequately cooled. In larger combustion engines this cooling is done with water. Although there are a few “air cooled” exceptions like the VW Beetle, generally auto engines are cooled using water or a “coolant” fluid.

So, let's do a thought experiment. Let's imagine that we turn on the engine and let it idle. In a few minutes the engine warms up and a “homeostatic” balance is established. This means; that the engine warms up, reaches a certain temperature, and then STAYS at that temperature.

It reaches a point of “homeostasis” or “balance”. Where the temperature doesn't go up or down. The system becomes stable or “static”.

That's how HEAT ENGINES work. Or rather, the ones that don't overheat, catch fire, and burn up, work that way.

So, let's quantify our model with some numbers.

Once our engine has “warmed up” we can measure the ENERGY flow through the system and quantify how it works. At this point the engine is in “idle”, which is the COLDEST it can be while the engine is running. The only way to make it colder, would be to turn it off. Hitting the gas to “rev it” will make it HOTTER.

IDLE is the LOWEST\COLDEST ENERGY STATE possible for a running engine.

In this example, 5 units of ENERGY goes into the engine. 1 unit of ENERGY warms up the engine. 4 units reach the radiator.

If our thought experiment engine is “well designed”. What happens at idle is something like this.

• ENERGY enters the system - in our example it's 5 units.

• ENERGY is “lost” warming the engine up - say, 1 unit.

• WATER pulls ENERGY out of the engine into itself - 4 units.

• ENERGY, in the WATER, arrives at the radiator - 4 units.

• ENERGY is “radiated away” into the air - 4 units.

• WATER enters the system - at 0 units.

• Cycle repeats until fuel runs out.

Once this state of “balance” is reached, the engine can run indefinitely without ever overheating.

The last 800,000 years have been the Earth’s Climate System in “idle”. CO2 levels are at “rock bottom” levels. Analysis of 500my of climate history indicates this is the lowest\coldest energy level possible for the Earth’s “running engine”.

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Now, what happens when we add ENERGY to our engine?

When we increase the input ENERGY.

In this example, we “rev” the engine and 6 units of ENERGY goes into the system. Again, 1 unit of ENERGY warms the engine itself. So, 5 units of ENERGY reaches the radiator. What do you think will happen next?

Basically, one of two things will happen.

CASE ONE: The Radiator has “extra” capacity and “eats” the extra HEAT ENERGY.

6 units of ENERGY goes into the system. Again, 1 unit of ENERGY warms the engine itself. 5 units of ENERGY reaches the radiator. The radiator handles the increased heat and 5 units of ENERGY are radiated away into the air. The water leaving the radiator cools to zero and enters the system again.

TOTAL ENERGY in system — 6 units (1 unit warming engine + 5 units in the system + 0 units in the water).

In this case the NET EFFECT of increasing the input ENERGY by 1 unit was a +1 unit increase in the total amount of ENERGY in the engine system.

CASE TWO: The Radiator has “no extra” capacity.

Case Two is a “Warming Feedback Loop”.

6 units of ENERGY goes into the system. Again, 1 unit of ENERGY warms the engine itself. 5 units of ENERGY reaches the radiator. The radiator can only handle 4 units of ENERGY. So, only 4 units of ENERGY are radiated away into the air. The water leaving the radiator now contains 1 unit of ENERGY as it enters the system again. The engine starts warming up rapidly.

Because the engine is going to get hotter and hotter over time. The excess ENERGY in the system has nowhere to go, and ACCUMULATES.

While the engine was idling this wasn't a problem. Five units of energy entered the system, 1 got pulled into warming the engine, 4 went to the radiator, 4 got radiated away, ZERO left over. The system was in balance.

When we increase the input ENERGY to 6 units things change. Six units of energy enter the system. The engine pulls 1 unit out, because this is a constant based on the physical design of the engine. Adding more input energy doesn't increase this number.

So, the water cooling the engine takes in 5 units of ENERGY. It's hotter than when the engine was idling.

In Case One, the radiator had extra capacity. It did its job and radiated all the energy in the water away into the air. There was no accumulation of ENERGY in the system.

In this case the radiator has no excess capacity. It can only pull 4 units of ENERGY OUT of the system, no matter how much ENERGY ENTERS the system.

In Case Two, there’s an extra 1 unit of ENERGY “left over” after the energy entering the radiator is processed. This leftover energy stays in the cooling water and gets fed back into the engine. One unit of ENERGY has accumulated in the water. 

The REALLY IMPORTANT thing to SEE here is that this isn't the “End of the Warming”. This +1 unit increase in the engine temperature is just the IMMEDIATE THERMAL RESPONSE to increasing the energy entering the system. As long as the system is out of balance, ENERGY will keep building up in the engine.

If the amount of ENERGY the radiator can get rid of is less than the amount of ENERGY it takes in, then ENERGY will accumulate in the engine. It, literally, has nowhere to go.

Because now, the water cooling the engine is HOTTER.

Now, the water is already carrying 1 unit of ENERGY leftover from it's first cycle through the engine. This time, when it takes in the 5 units of ENERGY leftover from the input. Instead of it going into the radiator carrying 5 units of ENERGY it goes in carrying 6.

The amount the radiator can radiate is still 4 units. In this case, that's a constant. It cannot increase. Now, the water leaving the radiator for the next cycle will be carrying 2 units of ENERGY.

Each cycle of the engine increases the amount of ENERGY accumulating in the system. The SPEED of this accumulation is the “RATE of WARMING”.

Rates of Global Warming 1850-2020

1850-1975 = 0.06C per decade.

1975-2015 = 0.18C per decade.

2015-2023 = 0.36C per decade.

The RATE of WARMING is INCREASING.

It's easy to see how this goes. The next cycle of the engine the water will be carrying 3 units of ENERGY when it leaves the radiator. The next cycle 4 units, then 5 units. At which point the water cannot take any ENERGY from the engine because it has the same amount of ENERGY in it, as the engine.

Quick, how much ENERGY is in the engine system at that point, what's the total amount?

TOTAL ENERGY in system — 11 units (1 unit warming engine + 5 units in the system + 5 units in the water).

In this case the NET EFFECT of increasing the input ENERGY by 1 unit was a +6 unit increase in the total amount of ENERGY in the engine system.

The effect of ACCUMULATION, is the AMPLIFICATION of INPUTS.

That's the lesson of this engine.

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Now let's consider Arctic Amplification.

They end at >4C, but the deepest “red” areas are at +6C and +7C. NASA and GISS are subtly minimizing warming in this graphic.

How does our conceptual model of the Climate System explain it?

We know, that 80% of the Energy that the Earth captures from the Sun starts at the Equator.

This visualizes one year of Energy capture from the sun.

We know, that this Energy moves through the oceans and the atmosphere FROM the equator towards the two poles.

80% of the ENERGY that powers the Earth’s Climate System is captured between the two yellow lines on the globe, the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. That ENERGY is what powers of the Climate System.

We know, that as it moves from the Equator to the Poles some of this energy is lost.

About 90% of the ENERGY captured from the Sun each year goes straight into the Oceans. Only about 1% heats the atmosphere directly.

It “bleeds” off into the friction of doing “work” like moving air and water. It gets lost into space from the atmosphere. It melts ice (about 3% of all the energy the earth receives annually is absorbed by melting ice and snow each year).

We know, that the HEAT ENERGY that's left, winds up at the North Pole.

The HEAT ENERGY from the equator winds up at the North Pole.

We know, that some of this ENERGY bleeds out of the Climate System during the Polar Winter.

During its Polar Winter, each Pole bleeds ENERGY out of the Climate System.

WHAT WE DID NOT KNOW, during the 70’s, 80’s, and 90’s when we decided it was probably safe to keep burning fossil fuels. Was if the Poles would act like the radiator in “Case One” or the radiator in “Case Two”.

This is from 2016. Globally warming passed 1.0C in 2015. In the Polar Zones it is 4X greater. HEAT is accumulating at the Poles.

Now we know, it was Case Two.

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)

This graphic is showing you two things. The Temperature trend between 1979-2021 and the local amplification ratio calculated for the period 1979–2021, derived from the average of the observational datasets.

What graphic “b” is saying, it that about 50% of the Arctic Polar Zone has been warming at a rate of AT LEAST 0.75C per decade since 1979. Parts of it have been warming at a rate of 1.5C per decade.

What graphic “c” is showing, is the AMPLIFICATION of warming that results from this accumulating HEAT ENERGY. Areas of the Arctic Polar Zone have warmed as much as +7C since 1979. Most of it has warmed +3C to +4C.

+1C of warming at the Equator is resulting in +4C to +7C in the Arctic.

The effect of ACCUMULATION, is the AMPLIFICATION of INPUTS.

Which raises the question of how much hotter will the Arctic get before a new balance is restored?

This is the “evolving” understanding of the amplification process.

Here's what we know from looking at the past.

In the modern world the Temperature Gradient between the Equator and the North Pole is about 45C. The South Pole is MUCH colder than the North Pole. Its Temperature Gradient is about 80C.

If the poles acted like the radiator in “Case One”. Then the “extra” ENERGY captured in the Tropics would flow to the Poles and be “radiated out” of the Climate System. A +1C increase at the Equator should result in no more than a +1C increase at the Poles.

What the paleoclimate record tells us, is that the Earth’s Climate System works more like “Case Two”.

Reconstructed Equator to Pole temperature gradients for different climate states in the Earth’s path.

In this graphic there are seven different “climate states” shown for a variety of different periods of the Earth. The way to use the graph, is to pick the state each of the poles is currently in and average the results to get the “actual” climate state of the planet.

Our “modern climate state” is a 5/7 combination of gradients.

The South Pole is in a “Severe Icehouse” climate state, so it's a 7. The North Pole is in a “Cooling Greenhouse” climate state, so it's a 5. The Global Mean Temperature is roughly the average between these two ‘energy states’ or about 15C.

During the PETM (Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum) 55mya temperatures rose in the Arctic Circle so much that it became about as warm as Florida is now. Remaining “ice free” during the polar winter.

This represents one of the HOTTEST episodes of the Earth’s climate history. In the last 500my the Earth has gotten this hot only 3 times.

This would have had a gradient something like this.

During the PETM the climate state was probably 1/3 combination of gradients. Resulting in a GMT of around +20C over today's baseline.

Which indicates that a +20C increase at the Equator resulted in a +35C response in the Arctic Zone. Which is how the Arctic becomes hot enough for alligators to live there year round. The oceans were so HOT. That even during the polar winter, there is enough heat in them to maintain the Winter temperature at a level comparable to a winter in modern day Florida.

The effect of ACCUMULATION, is the AMPLIFICATION of INPUTS.

Because Climate Sensitivity is higher when CO2 levels are lower. The 140ppm of CO2 we have put into the atmosphere has probably shifted our climate state from the current 5/7 curve to a new 3/5 curve.

The current GMT is about 15C or 59F. The paleoclimate record indicates the +140ppm of CO2 we have dumped in the atmosphere will warm the planet +4C. Which suggests the new climate state will be a 3/5 gradient curve.

Indicating the the Arctic Zone could warm by about +20C before THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM is reached.

At the current 0.36C per decade rate of warming, the Arctic is warming at about 1.5C per decade. Which means it could reach that level of warming in roughly 105 years from now, in about 2130.

ASSUMING THAT THINGS DON’T GET WORSE.

The Crisis Report - 36

The World’s Forests are Burning, Ecosystem Turnover is the Cause. Let’s All be Really Clear on What that Means.

All of the “dark green” areas are “Boreal Forests”. The trees there cannot survive in the warming climate. By 2050 ALL of them are project to burn. Globally these forests are estimated to hold the equivalent of about 600ppm of CO2. By 2050 they could ADD about 200ppm to the atmospheric CO2 levels. Pushing us above the 600ppm level and raising the GMT +6C by 2100.

Temperatures in the far North are about to rise EXPLOSIVELY.

The consequences are going to be SEVERE.

Because,

The effect of ACCUMULATION, is the AMPLIFICATION of INPUTS.

And we keep “revving” the engine.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

— rc

Scheduled for release 06/10/23 while I am on vacation and AfK.