The Crisis Report - 48
Understanding the Global Climate System isn't as hard as you think. We have most of the pieces to "SEE" it clearly now.
The Earth’s Climate System - A Short Users Guide.
Our planet is tilted in its orientation with the Sun. This drives EVERYTHING about our Climate.
It’s what gives us Seasons.
It's what gives us our Climate System.
On the globe, what that translates to is the area between the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern hemisphere and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern. Eighty percent of the energy the Earth gets from the Sun is captured in this area, known as “The Torrid Zone” or “The Tropics”.
Now, look at the energy graph to the right of the globe.
I want you to notice four things about it.
80% of the “surplus” energy happens between latitude 23N and 23S. The area between the two yellow lines on the globe.
Energy capture falls off RAPIDLY above that latitude. In the energy graph this is shown by the deep “pinch” on both sides of the equator.
The Northern Temperate Zone and the Southern Temperate Zone each capture only about 10% of the total solar energy powering the Climate System. This is the area above yellow line and below the red in each hemisphere.
ALL of the area between the red lines and each pole takes in less energy from the Sun than it loses to space each year. Everything above the red lines is in the “cold zone” because it has an energy deficit.
This globe and energy graph explain the entire Global Climate System. Because EVERYTHING flows from this physical reality.
When you look at the graph and the globe you are looking at the essentials of the Earth’s Climate System. To understand how it works you only need to remember one other fact.
HEAT ENERGY flows from HOT places to COLD places.
This is about all your average person needs to know about thermodynamics.
When you put this together with the globe and energy graph, visualizing how the Climate System works becomes obvious.
The Basics of the Global Climate System
ENERGY from the SUN is captured by the Earth in its annual orbit. Eighty percent of this ENERGY is captured along the equatorial zone. Because of the Earth’s tilted axial alignment with the SUN, both of the Earth’s polar zones exit in states of permanent ENERGY deficit.
This permanent ENERGY IMBALANCE between the HOT EQUATORIAL ZONE and the COLD POLAR ZONES results in a CONSTANT flow of HEAT ENERGY from the equator to the poles using the oceans and the atmosphere. This FLOW of ENERGY is what we perceive as “weather”. The long-term state of the ENERGY IMBALANCE between the equator and the poles is what we perceive as “climate”.
Everything else is details.
Here's an example of how to apply this conceptual model to reality.
Let's talk about the “Arctic ice cap”.
Arctic summer sea ice could disappear as early as 2035
By the time a current toddler graduates from high school, summer sea ice in the high North could be a thing of the past.
Based on our conceptual model of the Climate System what does this fact tell us about the Earth’s Energy Balance Sheet?
We know, that 80% of the Energy that the Earth captures from the Sun starts at the Equator.
We know, that this Energy moves through the oceans and the atmosphere FROM the equator towards the two poles.
As it moves from the Equator to the Poles some of this energy is lost. It “bleeds” off into the friction of doing “work” like moving air and water. It gets lost into space from the atmosphere. It melts ice (about 2% of all the energy the earth receives annually is absorbed by melting ice and snow each year). At the end, the HEAT ENERGY that's left, winds up at the North Pole.
During the Summer months.
The Polar Zone receives ENERGY from BOTH the Sun and the equator.
The air above the ice warms up. When it gets above the freezing point of water it stops maintaining the ice through refreezing.
The ice begins to rapidly melt as it is warmed from above, by the air, and below from the heat accumulated in the ocean waters.
The thinnest ice around the edges, melts first. When it melts, the warming process accelerates.
As the ice melts and turns to open water it begins to rapidly warm from the huge jump in ENERGY flowing into it. As the waters warm, they in turn, eat away at the ice from both the bottom and the edge. The more the ice melts, the greater the amount of open water absorbing solar energy, the faster the ice melts.
This is a FEEDBACK LOOP. It ENDS, when ALL the ice melts and the Summer Arctic Ocean is “ice free”.
The SPEED of this feedback loop is driven by “how fast” and “how much” the air above the ice warms up during the Spring as it begins to receive increased ENERGY from the Sun.
When the Arctic Ocean becomes ice free during the summer months, it will absorb 78% more energy. Arctic warming will accelerate rapidly as this happens. Models suggest this will add 0.5℃ to global warming, in addition to the warming caused by CO2 and CH4.
The amount of ENERGY the Arctic receives from the Sun each year doesn't change. It's a CONSTANT based on the axial tilt of the Earth in relationship to the Sun.
So,
If the Arctic sea ice is SHRINKING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is INCREASING. Indicating that the Earth is WARMING.
If the Arctic sea ice is GROWING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is DECLINING. Indicating that the Earth is COOLING.
The Arctic sea ice is the “end point” of the Global Climate System. HEAT from the Sun starts at the Equator and, at the end of the complex workings of our climate system, what's left reaches the Arctic.
During the dark Winter months a lot of this heat energy will bleed away into space. If MORE heat is lost than arrives, the Earth is cooling and sea ice will form and grow. If LESS heat is lost than arrives, the Earth is warming and sea ice will melt and shrink.
The Arctic Sea Ice is the “Temperature Gauge” of the Earth.
It is literally, “the sum of all things” in the Climate System.
This is the Earth’s Climate System stripped down to it's most basic level.
HEAT enters at the Equator—→HEAT flows to the poles—→HEAT exits into space.
The BALANCE between the Amount of HEAT that enters the system each year and the Amount of HEAT that leaves it, is basically the amount of heat energy that translates into the Global Mean Temperature.
That's it.
That's the Climate System stripped down to it’s most basic level.
Now of course things get much more complex when you start drilling down into the details. But, in the end the Climate System is about HEAT. Where it comes from, how it flows, where it goes, and what happens when it gets there.
If you want to understand the Climate System, “follow the HEAT”.
Because we are about to start REALLY feeling what this means.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
— rc 06022023
For more of the Crisis Report.
See my SubStack Index of Articles — Here.
I also sometimes write on Mesoamerican Archeology.
The Maya built a road network that rivals the Romans. In the Yucatan it's only visible in a few places. It was HUGE.
Personal Addendum:
This is the last thing I will be posting in “real-time” for awhile. I am going on a much needed vacation and expect to be gone until the Fall. I have written a few more of these Climate System articles covering.
-Arctic Amplification — Understanding why the Polar Zones are warming 4X faster than the rest of the planet.
-Permafrost Melting — The role of permafrost in the Climate System.
-North Pole versus South Pole — Why the South Pole has had a different response to the current warming and what to expect.
-Finally, a last “Crisis Report” covering Climate Sensitivity and why the Fossil Fuel Elites and the Climate Moderates got it wrong.
They are set to publish over the next few weeks. I urge all of you to get out and enjoy this last moment of the “world that was”. Unless we get VERY lucky things are about to get a lot worse.
In 1974 I read a short story by Larry Niven called “Inconstant Moon”.
In the story. Stan, the narrator, notices that the Moon is glowing much brighter than he has ever seen before. It seems unreal and beautiful. People who are awake begin to drift out into the streets to look at it.
The people he meets as the story begins, all praise the Moon’s increased brightness and beauty but lack the scientific background to understand its cause.
However, Stan realizes that the light from the Moon is actually “reflected sunlight”. If the Moon has suddenly gotten brighter it means that something has happened to the Sun.
Stan surmises that the Sun has gone nova, the day side of the Earth is already destroyed, and that this is the last night of his life. So he calls his girlfriend and they go out to “eat, drink, and be merry” in the few hours that remain.
Here’s the thing that brought that story to mind.
While Stan and his girlfriend are indulging themselves with decadent foods and drinks they run into dozens of other people. NONE of whom realize what's going on. They are the ONLY ones who realize what's about to happen.
When I watch the news these last few months I have that feeling, that I am one of the handful of people who realize what’s about to happen. I have tried to share my insights with all of you in these articles. I hope you find them useful in the days to come.
Stay safe, and hopefully we are all still here, “Come September”.
-rc
Thanks for your content, I’ve spend hours reading through much of it and I appreciate your perspective. All the best.