Earth 2100 is a television program that was presented by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) network on June 2, 2009, and was aired on the History Channel in January 2010 and shown through the year. Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what "a worst-case" future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include current climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.
The events following the life of a fictitious storyteller, "Lucy" (told through the use of motion comics, or limited animation), as she describes how the events affect her life. The program included predictions of a dystopian Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085, and 2100 by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists, including Jared Diamond, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Peter Gleick, James Howard Kunstler, Heidi Cullen, Alex Steffen and Joseph Tainter. It ended with a quote from writer Alex Steffen, saying "Kids born today will see us navigate past the first greatest test of humanity, which is: can we actually be smart enough to live on a planet without destroying it?"
It's a little dated but it's still one of the BEST things to watch in order to get a "sense" of how a CLIMATE CRISIS plays out. It takes decades. You have time. :-)
What's happening in the next 4-6 years is a "Climate Shock". It will be "Dustbowl 2.0" in the US. Globally it's going to be bad but we still have the reserves and resources to get through it. After that we better have our shit together.
I would stock up on food stocks that will keep and can be used up over the next year. I bought 40lbs of rice last fall. 6 Jars of mixed nuts. Sugar, salt, flour.
Do it now if you are going to. By this fall I expect prices to be 30-40% higher.
This is your "jump ahead of the rush" moment for stocking up.
But, I wouldn't go crazy. The more stuff you stockpile, the more tightly bound you are to a fixed location.
What good does a bunker with guns, food, and medicine do you if it gets flooded? Or the forest around you burns to ashes?
In a CLIMATE CRISIS mobility will be important. Being able to move quickly in response to fires, floods, or storms is probably more important than stocking up on stuff you may, or may not, be able to carry.
Do you have a good "bug out" kit of documents/meds/cash/food/water/camping gear ready to assemble quickly? Get that together first and have a family plan about what to do, and where to meet in the event you get separated in a disaster.
Then, if you want lay in some supplies. Because it's going to be a HOT YEAR.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Now that most people believe the climate is changing due to fossil fuel usage - and the instability should concern us - even among serious people like ourselves, there’s a wide range of perspectives about where we are and how we should deal with the present and the near-future.
My first comment on Substack. Thank you so much. :-)
I was beginning to think I was talking to myself.
RE: Title
I get called "crazy", "Doomer", and "conspiracy minded" a fair amount. I don't simply report facts, I interpret fact patterns. Obviously there is a subjective component to that. You are getting my "expert opinion".
Some people think I'm a nut-job. A VERY smart, VERY well educated nut-job but a total nut-job. I am very open that right now I am out on the fringe.
What does ‘I won’t be for long?’ mean? Hopefully something good and exciting! 😃 I like to check my newsletter stats for reassurance. At least people open and look at my work - even if they don’t usually comment.
Subsequent to reading your piece I came across one by Noahpinion pretty much arguing that things aren’t that grim - and saying they are only dooms us to despair and inaction.
I think the dishonesty is what has got us here in the first place. The umpteenth hour where in a hundred years there might just be a few million of us - like a Biblical remnant, living with what we can muster from old knowledge of how to live without tech, off-grid, in what remains of habitable earth ...
At this rate and with the obvious failure to attend to the climate emergency - that’s not the only outcome, but it does seem the most likely.
Processing this is hard, but still, thanks for your analysis. So the wise thing should be to start prepping right?
Have you seen this documentary, Earth 2100?
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Earth 2100
Original network ABC
Original release June 2, 2009
Earth 2100 is a television program that was presented by the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) network on June 2, 2009, and was aired on the History Channel in January 2010 and shown through the year. Hosted by ABC journalist Bob Woodruff, the two-hour special explored what "a worst-case" future might look like if humans do not take action on current or impending problems that could threaten civilization. The problems addressed in the program include current climate change, overpopulation, and misuse of energy resources.
The events following the life of a fictitious storyteller, "Lucy" (told through the use of motion comics, or limited animation), as she describes how the events affect her life. The program included predictions of a dystopian Earth in the years 2015, 2030, 2050, 2085, and 2100 by scientists, historians, social anthropologists, and economists, including Jared Diamond, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Peter Gleick, James Howard Kunstler, Heidi Cullen, Alex Steffen and Joseph Tainter. It ended with a quote from writer Alex Steffen, saying "Kids born today will see us navigate past the first greatest test of humanity, which is: can we actually be smart enough to live on a planet without destroying it?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XmiLNYyl48
It's a little dated but it's still one of the BEST things to watch in order to get a "sense" of how a CLIMATE CRISIS plays out. It takes decades. You have time. :-)
What's happening in the next 4-6 years is a "Climate Shock". It will be "Dustbowl 2.0" in the US. Globally it's going to be bad but we still have the reserves and resources to get through it. After that we better have our shit together.
I would stock up on food stocks that will keep and can be used up over the next year. I bought 40lbs of rice last fall. 6 Jars of mixed nuts. Sugar, salt, flour.
Do it now if you are going to. By this fall I expect prices to be 30-40% higher.
This is your "jump ahead of the rush" moment for stocking up.
But, I wouldn't go crazy. The more stuff you stockpile, the more tightly bound you are to a fixed location.
What good does a bunker with guns, food, and medicine do you if it gets flooded? Or the forest around you burns to ashes?
In a CLIMATE CRISIS mobility will be important. Being able to move quickly in response to fires, floods, or storms is probably more important than stocking up on stuff you may, or may not, be able to carry.
Do you have a good "bug out" kit of documents/meds/cash/food/water/camping gear ready to assemble quickly? Get that together first and have a family plan about what to do, and where to meet in the event you get separated in a disaster.
Then, if you want lay in some supplies. Because it's going to be a HOT YEAR.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Now that most people believe the climate is changing due to fossil fuel usage - and the instability should concern us - even among serious people like ourselves, there’s a wide range of perspectives about where we are and how we should deal with the present and the near-future.
Surprisingly wide range ...
Great title. Sobering content. Grim breakfast reading. Shared though.
My first comment on Substack. Thank you so much. :-)
I was beginning to think I was talking to myself.
RE: Title
I get called "crazy", "Doomer", and "conspiracy minded" a fair amount. I don't simply report facts, I interpret fact patterns. Obviously there is a subjective component to that. You are getting my "expert opinion".
Some people think I'm a nut-job. A VERY smart, VERY well educated nut-job but a total nut-job. I am very open that right now I am out on the fringe.
I won't be for long.
What does ‘I won’t be for long?’ mean? Hopefully something good and exciting! 😃 I like to check my newsletter stats for reassurance. At least people open and look at my work - even if they don’t usually comment.
Subsequent to reading your piece I came across one by Noahpinion pretty much arguing that things aren’t that grim - and saying they are only dooms us to despair and inaction.
I think the dishonesty is what has got us here in the first place. The umpteenth hour where in a hundred years there might just be a few million of us - like a Biblical remnant, living with what we can muster from old knowledge of how to live without tech, off-grid, in what remains of habitable earth ...
At this rate and with the obvious failure to attend to the climate emergency - that’s not the only outcome, but it does seem the most likely.