In the past I have followed the 'world view' on climate, environment and economies, and my concerns have been global, as yours, Richard.
Today I find myself looking at the maps and diagrams to determine how they might affect my locality, my plans and for my (optimistic) expectations of my own lifetime. If two billion or 5 billion have to die from the effects of climate, and past and current decisions made by economics and politics, then I don't intend for that to include me, which seems to be the same viewpoint of those High Net Worth rich people too! That much is understandable, a logical self-preservation. I am surprised more people aren't doing the same.
But this is where it gets more difficult:
I have long been preparing myself to harden my heart to the psychological overload of so much pain and suffering to come, and now here already for those in Gaza and Ukraine, and increasingly in the USA, that in itself may be as damaging to the fabric of our societies as the physical effects of high temperatures, droughts, famines, wars and ethnic genocide. Empathy, my empathy, everyone's empathy, seems to have limits. There is a point when the psychological damage becomes too much to bear and to protect our (my) sanity, we have to shut out those furthest away from up, and focus on 'our own'; family, friends, neighbours, own communities, 'people like us'.
And this isn't some prophecy for a dystopian future; when that nice-but-boring Uncle Joe Biden decided to send tens of $ millions of military hardware and munitions to Netanyahu to exterminate Palestinian civilians in Gaza, the vast majority of Americans DID NOT CARE! Even most Democratic voters, long claiming the moral high ground, seemed not to care, and I still see Substack contributors praising Biden as a fine man, an excellent President. His personal involvement in genocide either agreed with or blanked out.
Here in Europe, the danger now is shown from your map on the climate effects on Africans, and the inevitable mass migration northward into Europe, especially Italy and Spain, as they attempt their own survival. This is already driving a shift to Far-Right politics on the sole basis of controls on migration, specifically the idea of being culturally overwhelmed by Blacks, and I fully expect for the public to eventually support harsher and more ruthless treatment of Black African and Arab migrants, both in their attempts to cross the Mediterranean, and on their arrival into Europe.
Perhaps policies and actions like ICE in America?
Perhaps THIS is the real destruction? When humans simply stop caring about other humans and what happens to them? What happens when empathy is just too psychologically 'expensive', so we stop living in 'communities' and it becomes every man for himself?
All in all, another accelerating degradation of habitat for humans. At least the wildfires have partial negative feedback. They generate more aerosols/nucleating particles forming more clouds to help mask the warming that otherwise would surely impact sooner.
The air quality issue is no joke though, it severely impacts those with respiratory problems and even healthy organisms have trouble in it. My healthy basal breed adult dog coughs, snorts and reverse hiccups going outside now. It's ok inside though, I use devices powered by fossil fuels to filter the air.
It's said hunter-gathers had to work much less to survive than modern humans. Somehow it seems like we took the wrong path a long time ago.
Would you mind sharing that email with me? Or at least letting me know your sources so I can do the same? I know I could just look it up myself but I'm not sure what good sources for that sort of data are. And I'd imagine someone like you would have done the work of filtering for good sources already!
Looking at linear rates of increase to global warming now predicting +4c of warming by the end of the century…
When we know it’s going to be a greater than linear increase…
Has made me finally give up on having children. All things equal, I would have wanted the experience of starting a family but this is terminal for the human species. I’ve known our trajectory since 2016, but I didnt realize how off the models were going to turn out to be, and the acceleration we’re seeing…I’m 32 now and I’d be surprised if I make it past 50.
In the past I have followed the 'world view' on climate, environment and economies, and my concerns have been global, as yours, Richard.
Today I find myself looking at the maps and diagrams to determine how they might affect my locality, my plans and for my (optimistic) expectations of my own lifetime. If two billion or 5 billion have to die from the effects of climate, and past and current decisions made by economics and politics, then I don't intend for that to include me, which seems to be the same viewpoint of those High Net Worth rich people too! That much is understandable, a logical self-preservation. I am surprised more people aren't doing the same.
But this is where it gets more difficult:
I have long been preparing myself to harden my heart to the psychological overload of so much pain and suffering to come, and now here already for those in Gaza and Ukraine, and increasingly in the USA, that in itself may be as damaging to the fabric of our societies as the physical effects of high temperatures, droughts, famines, wars and ethnic genocide. Empathy, my empathy, everyone's empathy, seems to have limits. There is a point when the psychological damage becomes too much to bear and to protect our (my) sanity, we have to shut out those furthest away from up, and focus on 'our own'; family, friends, neighbours, own communities, 'people like us'.
And this isn't some prophecy for a dystopian future; when that nice-but-boring Uncle Joe Biden decided to send tens of $ millions of military hardware and munitions to Netanyahu to exterminate Palestinian civilians in Gaza, the vast majority of Americans DID NOT CARE! Even most Democratic voters, long claiming the moral high ground, seemed not to care, and I still see Substack contributors praising Biden as a fine man, an excellent President. His personal involvement in genocide either agreed with or blanked out.
Here in Europe, the danger now is shown from your map on the climate effects on Africans, and the inevitable mass migration northward into Europe, especially Italy and Spain, as they attempt their own survival. This is already driving a shift to Far-Right politics on the sole basis of controls on migration, specifically the idea of being culturally overwhelmed by Blacks, and I fully expect for the public to eventually support harsher and more ruthless treatment of Black African and Arab migrants, both in their attempts to cross the Mediterranean, and on their arrival into Europe.
Perhaps policies and actions like ICE in America?
Perhaps THIS is the real destruction? When humans simply stop caring about other humans and what happens to them? What happens when empathy is just too psychologically 'expensive', so we stop living in 'communities' and it becomes every man for himself?
All in all, another accelerating degradation of habitat for humans. At least the wildfires have partial negative feedback. They generate more aerosols/nucleating particles forming more clouds to help mask the warming that otherwise would surely impact sooner.
The air quality issue is no joke though, it severely impacts those with respiratory problems and even healthy organisms have trouble in it. My healthy basal breed adult dog coughs, snorts and reverse hiccups going outside now. It's ok inside though, I use devices powered by fossil fuels to filter the air.
It's said hunter-gathers had to work much less to survive than modern humans. Somehow it seems like we took the wrong path a long time ago.
God help us if you are right.
Yes indeed.
I have setup a sort of short-term reality check for myself, in the form of an email scheduled to be sent to myself at the end of July.
This email contains some snippets of writings with expected temps and stuff for this coming summer, as they were forecasted back in January.
Would you mind sharing that email with me? Or at least letting me know your sources so I can do the same? I know I could just look it up myself but I'm not sure what good sources for that sort of data are. And I'd imagine someone like you would have done the work of filtering for good sources already!
Well, it's not too elaborate for now.
I'll DM you. :)
Thanks for returning to writing and posting your analysis.
Now what? Add me to your reading list. No argument with your conclusions, but a switch to roads not taken. This was today's:
REPORT FROM THE FUTURE
https://suzannetaylor.substack.com/p/report-from-the-future
Looking at linear rates of increase to global warming now predicting +4c of warming by the end of the century…
When we know it’s going to be a greater than linear increase…
Has made me finally give up on having children. All things equal, I would have wanted the experience of starting a family but this is terminal for the human species. I’ve known our trajectory since 2016, but I didnt realize how off the models were going to turn out to be, and the acceleration we’re seeing…I’m 32 now and I’d be surprised if I make it past 50.