The Crisis Report - 21
Ukraine War is one year old today. China is expected to announce a “peace plan”. Here's what the Climate is doing.
These two graphs are the “hidden drivers” causing the crisis in our Anthroposphere.
So.
I think I may start all of my next few articles with these two graphs. Because this is what’s driving the CLIMATE CRISIS that’s playing out in the Anthroposphere right now.
The first graph shows a “dimming” or diminishment of the Earth’s planetary albedo. This was observed and recorded in two separate studies using two different methodologies. I have discussed this paper in detail.
Living in Bomb Time — 20 : Heat doesn’t “just happen”Where it’s coming from and why that matters.
Living in Bomb Time — 22 : I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad.
What’s really important to understand is this.
The two-decade decrease in earthshine-derived albedo corresponds to an increase in radiative forcing of about 0.5 W/m2, which is climatologically significant (Miller et al., 2014). For comparison, total anthropogenic forcing increased by about 0.6 W/m2 over the same period. The CERES data show an even stronger trend of decreasing global albedo over the most recent years, which has been associated to changes in the PDO, SSTs and low cloud formation changes.
STARTING AROUND 2014, GLOBAL WARMING STARTED ACCELERATING. IT JUMPED FROM 0.18C PER DECADE TO 0.36C PER DECADE.
OUR “OCEAN” IS WARMING UP TWICE AS FAST NOW.
That affects EVERYTHING.
WE ARE STARTING A MASSIVE “EL NINO”.
The amount of excess heat buried in the planet’s oceans, a strong marker of climate change, reached a record high in 2022, reflecting more stored heat energy than in any year since reliable measurements were available in the late 1950s, a group of scientists reported Wednesday.
That eclipses the ocean heat record set in 2021 — which eclipsed the record set in 2020, which eclipsed the one set in 2019.
Oceans surged to another record-high temperature in 2022 WAPO January 11, 2023
In 2022, the heat content in the upper 2000 meters of the Pacific ocean reached a record level “by a large margin,” researchers say, “which supports the extreme events witnessed, such as intensive heat waves and deoxygenation, and poses a substantial risk to marine life in this region.”
Oceans Broke Yet Another Heat Record in 2022, Scientists Warn Science Alert Jan 12, 2023
It was the 46th-consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to the NOAA analysis.
Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies stated.
“The long-term trends are very clear, the increases in temperature are not due to natural variation. They are not due to the sun. They are not due to volcanoes. They are due to our emissions of greenhouse gases and as long as we continue to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, these trends will continue.”
World’s Oceans Absorbed Record Heat From Warming Climate in 2022 WSJ Jan 12, 2023
THE OCEAN IS RELEASING HEAT. WE ARE HAVING A “MILD” WINTER RIGHT NOW. BY THIS SUMMER HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL BE DYING IN HEATWAVES.
You may have read about how the “mild Winter” was bad for Putin.
Vladimir Putin’s plan to squeeze Europe on energy thwarted by warm winter.
Europe’s warm winter is robbing Putin of a trump card
War and Weather — The weirdly warm European winter has unexpected geopolitical consequences.
It made things “easier” for the Europeans because they didn’t have a massive shortage of natural gas (CH4/Methane). However, temperatures are freakishly high across the northern hemisphere.
Surge of warmth just set February records in the East, with more on the way. WAPO 021723
Pulses of unusually high temperatures have continued to roll through the eastern half of the country since the beginning of the year: 2023 opened with a burst of bewildering warmth.
Washington sets daily record high temperature of 81 degrees
Thursday’s 150-year-old record was smashed. A record warm start to the year has pushed Tidal Basin cherry blossoms to the green bud stage.
It’s never been this warm in February. Here’s why that’s not a good thing.
More than 130 cities from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes could set new records for daily and monthly high temperatures this week. Highs will climb up to 80 degrees as far north as Ohio and West Virginia — certainly unusual, but becoming less so in the warming climate.
Here’s a stark example: Before this decade, Charleston, West Virginia, had only hit 80 degrees before March three times in more than 100 years of record-keeping. But this week’s incredible warmth will mean that four of the last six years will have logged temperatures of 80 degrees, which is its normal high on June 1, in February.
Great Lakes ice is on a downward trend, NOAA scientists report. A recent study found a 70% decline in the lakes’ ice cover between 1973 and 2017.
This isn’t just a US problem
India issued its first heatwave alert, with temperatures in some states reaching 39 degrees Celsius (102 Fahrenheit).
Up to 9 degrees Celsius (16.2 Fahrenheit) above normal, according to data released by the India Meteorological Department on Monday.
“The heatwave warnings as early as February is a scary situation,” Krishna AchutaRao, a professor at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, told CNN.
It has raised fears of a repeat of last year’s deadly heatwave, which scorched swaths of India and Pakistan.
HEAT affects FOOD.
Last year, crop yields were reduced by as much as a third in some parts of the country. As temperatures soared last spring, India banned exports of wheat, dashing hopes that the world’s second-largest wheat producer would fill the supply gap caused by the war in Ukraine.
This February, with high temperatures hitting wheat-producing states, including Rajasthan and Gujarat, India has set up a committee to monitor the impact of rising temperatures on the crop.
India sets up panel to assess impact of higher temperatures on wheat crop.
Europe has also been “unusually warm”.
Europe kicked off 2023 with an extreme winter heatwave that broke January temperature records in several countries. Low levels of snow and rainfall have fueled concerns about the region’s rivers and lakes. Which last year hit lows not seen in centuries.
Could the Drying Up of Europe’s Great Rivers Be the New Normal?
The River Po, which winds through northern Italy’s agricultural heartland, is at very low levels, while water in Lake Garda in northern Italy has reached record lows. There are fears Italy, which declared a state of emergency last year after its worst drought in 70 years, may face another drought.
Let’s consider this year’s wheat harvest prospects.
This graph can seem confusing. It’s telling you four different stories at once.
Total Global Production broken down by contributor.
Total Global Production vs Domestic Usage is saying that Total Global Production is expected to be 28.7 Billion Bushels and Domestic Usage is expected to be 29.0 Billion Bushels. A SHORTFALL OF 300 million bushels.
Exports vs Imports is tricky to understand because you have to know that even countries that “export” one kind of wheat, often “import” another kind. India is the second largest wheat producer in the world but it hasn’t been a big “net exporter” of wheat in the past. Because it almost always “imports” about as much as it exports.
3. Imports vs Exports, basically is indicating what they expect the “global supply” of wheat in 2023 will be. The difference between what countries “let go of” (7.7BB) and what they “take back in” (7.5BB) is the amount of wheat that should be available for purchase on the open market. THE PROJECTION IS THAT AROUND 200 million bushels WILL BE AVAILABLE.
4. Beginning Stocks vs Ending Stocks, indicates the expected status of global reserves by the end of the year.
Because the projection is for a global production shortfall of 300 million bushels and only 200 million bushels available on the Open Market. The expectation is that countries will “draw down” stockpiles in order to stabilize prices internally and keep global markets functioning.
They are projecting a decline of 400 million bushels in the Global Stocks by the end of the year.
It is extremely important to know that CHINA CONTROLS 50% OF THE BEGINNING STOCKS. They went on a MAJOR grain buying spree in 2021 and built their reserves to “record levels” just a few months before Putin invaded Ukraine.
Very, very worried’: Another bleak year expected for food security.
World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley. Jan. 04, 2023.
“I’m very, very worried. I think we will have a food availability problem [in 2023] … If we don’t address the issues that need to be addressed quickly, effectively, strategically — I’m worried that we will have mass destabilization around the planet [this] year”
“With a food availability problem, all this could culminate into the beginning of a global depression by the end of [this] year.”
According to WFP, an estimated 828 million people are already hungry, with the number of those facing acute food insecurity more than doubling to 345 million from 135 million since 2019. People in 49 countries are currently at risk of famine.
Globally fertilizer prices are expected to remain high.
Across the world this is affecting small farmers. According to Africa Fertilizer Watch, the demand for fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa is low because prices are so high and many countries are suffering economically. This will have a ripple effect through 2023. Reducing locally grown food supplies and pushing countries to turn to more expensive imports to make up the difference.
Because of a good rice harvest in 2022, increasing rice prices are a low concern over the coming year. Ukraine is not a rice exporter, but the fertilizer shortages will impact crop yields throughout 2023. Floods in Pakistan are also affecting rice supply, while the market is causing some countries to impose export restrictions.
By the end of 2023 rice prices globally will probably increase 15%-20%.
ASSUMING THINGS DON’T GET WORSE.
We are hitting the “upper end” of the forecasts for February temperatures. Based on every signal I’m seeing we are going to hit the high end of this forecast by December.
2023 IS GOING TO BE OFF THE CHARTS HOT.
I think Putin and Xi already know this.
The “peace” deal that China offers today will reveal a lot about how bad they think things are going to get. It will also tell us a lot about how the US/China War is going.
HERE IS MY PREDICTION.
I think that China will call for a “cease fire” and offer to host peace talks. I think this is the “most likely” proposal China will make. It’s attractive to everyone and it would be very hard for Ukraine to say no.
China and Russia are allied in this war. If you aren’t sure about that here’s what I wrote last year.
The Crisis Report — 05 : Here is a case for the Russia-China connection in Ukraine. June 2022
If China can get a ceasefire for “peace talks” it will buy Russia a chance to “rest-refit-resupply” its army. If the peace talks could be stretched out for 4–5 months Putin’s position would improve.
So would Ukraine’s. Which is why Zelensky might take that offer.
Using advanced American and European weapons, Ukraine has been able to fight the Russians to a standstill. However, they are completely handicapped by the poor logistical situation.
Because supplies from the US and Europe arrive in trickles and small pulses they can never be “built up” for an offensive. The need is so great that whatever comes in gets used immediately.
Zelensky might take a pause in the conflict in order to build up his supplies and hope that Ukraine could build up faster than the Russians.
Because there is something for both sides I think this is the “most probable” thing for China to propose. If it’s not this, that will tell us a LOT about how bad they think the CLIMATE CRISIS is going to get.
Until then.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
-rc
022423