The Crisis Report - 94

A pattern is forming in my head.

Source: “A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature”, E.J. Judd et al. Temperatures are averages for geological periods. Shaded area shows values with a 68% probability.

Let's discuss it.

Warning, it's not “good news”. I think we fucked up so badly that quiet literally a “Dark Age” is coming. This is a rough “first pass” of how some new papers are coming together for me. This is MY OPINION, not “science”.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

So, a few weeks ago I wrote a paper breaking down the paper this chart is from.

Short Takes — 03

Short Takes: The evidence accumulates that the “Climate Sensitivity” estimate in our models is BADLY off.

One of the things that stuck in my head was the finding that there was an apparent pattern of +8°C temperature increase for each doubling of atmospheric CO2 (2XCO2).

A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature.

Science, 20 Sep 2024, Vol 385, Issue 6715, DOI: 10.1126/science.adk3705

Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling (see the Perspective by Mills). They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today.

The GMST-CO2 relationship indicates a notably constant “apparent” Earth system sensitivity (i.e., the temperature response to a doubling of CO2, including fast and slow feedbacks) of ∼8°C, with no detectable dependence on whether the climate is warm or cold.

Which is OMG off the charts BAD.

Now, here's the thing. My first thought was of thinking about this in terms of 280ppm DOUBLING to 560ppm. Thinking about how this was +2°C above the +6°C predicted since Arrhenius in 1898. An estimate he reached solely based on “the physics”.

There is evidence to support the position that 2XCO2 means +8°C instead of the +5°C to +6°C the Alarmist models have forecast since the 70's.

Cenozoic evolution of deep ocean temperature from clumped isotope thermometry :

Science/30 Jun 2022/Vol 377, Issue 6601 pp. 86–90/DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0604

Strongly suggests that the Moderate estimates for “Climate Sensitivity” are about 100% too LOW and that +2°C should be added to temperature estimates in past papers.

So. You can see HOW I could get to thinking 2XCO2 could cause up to +8°C of warming at 560ppm CO2e.

But then, an alternative narrative occurred to me. A less “anthropocentric” narrative.

This graph represents 60 years of effort by the global paleoclimatology community.

Look at where the ZERO line is set. Not at the lowest level of CO2, that would be 180ppm. We set “zero” on our temperature gauge at a level of 280ppm atmospheric CO2.

How very anthropocentric of us.

Figure S1. Estimated paleo-CO2 concentration (black line) with 95% credible (gray band). The colors show global mean surface temperature relative to the preindustrial period. During the Pleistocene epoch (~2.58 million to ~11,700 years ago), CO2 levels never reached anywhere near the present-day concentration of ~420ppm in 2022 (dashed horizontal line). From : The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth BioScience, biae087, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087

In this chart from a paper published on October 8th you see the same thing in “mainstream” Climate Science. “Zero” on the temperature scale is viewed as being around 280ppm on the CO2 scale.

We do this because we set “zero” as the temperature in 1850. When the atmospheric CO2 level was about 280ppm. That’s all that represents.

What if we set ZERO as 180ppm?

The lowest the CO2 level has fallen in about 360 million years. The level that it has been bouncing around at for roughly the last million years.

The relationship between CO2 levels and the Global Mean Temperature is clear in the high resolution climate record of the Greenland Ice Cores.

We can say with a HIGH degree of certainty that 180ppm seems to be a “hard floor” for the atmospheric CO2 level. So, why not make it our “zero” for calibrating our CO2ppm to +°C scale.

In that case.

The “first” 2XCO2 is 180ppm to 360ppm. That would be +8°C from the first 2XCO2.

We hit 360ppm around 1995.

In 1979, at CO2 levels of 330ppm. Based on what we could see, the Global Mean Temperature (GMT) would increase to about +0.6°C at 350ppm. The Moderate faction estimate of 2XCO2 is based on this observation.

As I have discussed, in the paper “Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality. Nature Climate Change, 2020; DOI: 10.1038/s41558–020–0699-y” the authors find that:

Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions,” said lead author Zheng. “This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change.”

“Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970.”

Which, if this is at all correct. Could have meant that +0.7°C of warming was being “masked” by aerosol sulfate particulates. The result of burning high sulfur fossil fuels.

In which case the actual temperature in the 70’s would have been about +1.3°C at 330ppm and +2°C at 360ppm doesn't seem implausible at all. Particularly given the fights we have had in calibrating our “zero” point on the CO2ppm to +°C scale.

Particularly when the paleoclimate findings indicate.

We see +4°C from +140ppm CO2. (280ppm to 420ppm)

That +400ppm indicates +4°C of warming from from the 280ppm/ 0°C baseline we currently use.

If we set “zero” at 180ppm things look a little different.

The ORANGE line is 360ppmCO2 and the GMT is at +8°C. About +2°C from our viewpoint.

The RED line is 720ppm. The next “doubling” 2XCO2 that the researchers found to consistently cause +8°C of warming.

We show about +8°C at roughly 720ppm. This would indicate that 720ppmCO2 will be about +10°C over our 1850 baseline. Or about +16°C over the 180ppmCO2 baseline.

In this view of the Climate System we have transitioned from the “first 2XCO2 cycle” into the “second 2XCO2 cycle”. The transition point was hitting 360ppmCO2 around 1995.

Since then, we have been in the 360ppmCO2 to 720ppm CO2 2XCO2 cycle. In this cycle we could naturally expect “up to” +8°C of warming if the paleoclimate record is an accurate indicator.

From our viewpoint that means +10°C at 720ppm. About +2°C higher than the paleoclimate data indicates in this graph. BUT, that +2°C increase is in line with the “Cenozoic evolution of deep ocean temperature” paper which indicates our temperature calibration is -2°C too low.

I think the evolving science is pointing towards 720ppmCO2 being +10°C from our 1850 baseline.

That would make the next 2XCO2 cycle be 720ppmCO2 to 1440ppmCO2.

This would increase the GMT another +8°C to +24°C over the 180ppm zero baseline. Or, +18°C over our 1850 280ppmCO2 baseline.

We saw 1400ppm as being about +14°C over our baseline. The new data indicates about +18°C.

At a MUCH lower level of CO2 than we thought when this graph was made about 5 years ago. But about in line with what this new study found with their larger dataset and better calibration.

Around 36mya the GMT was about +10°C warmer. The CO2 level around that time was in the low 700’s. It was falling from it’s peak around 55mya at around 1600ppmCO2.

However, if our CO2 estimates were calibrated with this pattern in mind. then a fourth doubling 2XCO2 from 1440ppm to 2880ppm would produce +32°C of warming. Which would sync up very well with the temperatures reported in this recent paper.

This also syncs up well with what we know about how the Latitudinal Equator to Pole Temperature Gradient changes as the GMT increases.

Because the North Pole is warmer than the South Pole they have different “Energy States”. The NP is a “Cooling Greenhouse”, while the SP is a “Severe Icehouse”. The hidden insight here is that the Poles warm up REALLY fast, FIRST. They are where the “heat builds up”.

It indicates that, after the GMT increases past +11°C a new equilibrium is reached where the Equator and Pole increase in lockstep on a 1 for 1 basis. So, a temperature increase of +32°C at the Equator would result in +32°C at the poles.

Which is HOW alligators and palm trees could live around and “ice free” Arctic Ocean 55mya.

This is what the landscape around the ARCTIC Ocean probably looked like 53 million years ago during the PETM. The Arctic Ocean was so warm, it did not freeze. Even during the Winter. The climate was about like modern day, Miami’s.

CO2(e) levels got to around 2800ppm and temperatures got about +32°C hotter than the 180ppm baseline. From our perspective that would be a +26°C overall increase from 1850 with a +32°C increase at the poles.

The new narrative simplifies our understanding of the Climate System and brings an overall order to all the lines of evidence.

In this understanding of the Climate System we “pushed” the system out of the “First 2XCO2 State” by pushing CO2 levels up above 360ppm. At that point we had raised the Global Mean Temperature about +2°C.

At that temperature there is NO permafrost. Something we didn’t know in the 1970’s. So, in effect we began the “Second 2XCO2 State” by melting the permafrost for the first time in 750,000 years.

The Second 2XCO2 doubling is from 360ppm to 720ppm and will increase temperatures +8°C to about +10°C over our 1850 baseline. That indicates warming of about +5°C to +6°C over our 1850 baseline at 540ppm.

What’s worse, is that there is 750,000 years or organic debris built up in the permafrost zones in the Northern Hemisphere.

Distribution of permafrost zones that together represent the permafrost region. It’s about 22% of the exposed land area in the Northern Hemisphere.

There is enough carbon and methane in the permafrost and Boreal Forests to push the CO2 level up into the 1300ppm range. That would boost us out of the Second 2XCO2 Doubling (360ppm to 720ppm) and into the Third 2XCO2 Doubling (720ppm to 1440ppm). Increasing the GMT about +22°C over the 180ppm baseline or about +16°C over our 1850 baseline.

Which is “in line” with Hansen’s conclusions in his “Global Warming in the Pipeline” paper. Although the “peak warming” number is a little higher than Hansen is forecasting.

BOTTOM LINE.

By looking at the Climate System from this perspective it becomes clear that we pushed past a major tipping point in 1995 when we crossed 360ppm. This pushed us out of the First 2XCO2 Doubling and into the Second 2XCO2.

In this Doubling there is no permafrost. Heat “builds up” rapidly at the poles and melts it away. When this happens the Boreal Forests quickly burn away and release at least 200ppm worth of CO2. This accelerates the melting of the permafrost and its release of CO2 and CH4.

The CO2 level RAPIDLY climbs from the 423ppm of today to 720ppm in less than 100 years. Global temperatures soar +10°C and continue to increase as CO2 levels increase from the decay of the permafrost.

The rate of increase slows down as the release of carbon slows down. Ultimately CO2 levels peak at around 1300ppmCO2. High, but not enough to push us into the next 2XCO2 Doubling state. Temperatures peak at around +16°C over our 1850 baseline and then slowly begin to cool down.

That’s what things are looking like to me.

We REALLY fucked up.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

• rc 101824

Personal Notes:

Hey, tell me I’m wrong. I’m basically agreeing with Hansen's analysis in his “Pipeline” paper. This is what he thinks is happening. I just think it could happen “faster than expected” and be a little worse. Hansen tends conservative after decades of attacks and having to defend his position constantly.

But, when I look at the converging lines of evidence in the field this is the pattern I see. This is the outline of what our “Second Generation Climate Paradigm” is going to look like.

It’s tragic, that we have almost certainly destroyed ourselves finding that out.