The Crisis Report - 93
The Crisis Report - 93
Let’s be CLEAR about what “Mainstream” Climate Science actually says. (Part Three)
FEEDBACKS and SYSTEM STABILITY
The multipliers in the Climate Change equation.
I have been mulling over how to write this piece. I want to clearly convey the Moderate Climate Science position because it is “mainstream” climate science. It’s the science that goes into the IPCC reports, that GISS says is true, that NOAA uses, and that is taught in Universities throughout the world.
To DISAGREE with the mainstream interpretation of the Climate System makes you either a “Denier” who believes that increases in the atmospheric CO2 level doesn't cause the planet to warm. Or, it makes you a “Doomer” who doesn’t trust “mainstream science” and insists that “the apocalypse is upon us!”
Both of these positions are regarded as “fringe” by the majority of Americans. Which clearly shows in American politics.
A clear majority of Americans believe in Climate Change and Global Warming. We know this for a fact, because Democratic Presidential Candidates have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections.
NOT accepting the reality of Green House Gas (GHG) caused global warming and climate change puts you in the minority. Being a Climate Change “Denier” increasingly marks you as “fringe”.
HOWEVER.
Most Americans also do not think Climate Change is a “crisis issue”. Most of them don't even think it’s a “pressing issue”.
Do voters care about climate change? How going green divides this election
National polls found that Americans on both sides of the political aisle rank climate change initiatives as a far lower priority than the economy…
“The large majority of Americans would prefer government action on climate change, but that doesn’t mean that they prioritize the issue when they’re going into their polling place and voting,”
Nathaniel Stinnett, executive director of the Environmental Voter Project
Most Americans accept the “Mainstream Climate Science” narrative that “Global Warming” and “Climate Change” are growing concerns but ones that we are taking steps to deal with. They hear the message from people like Hannah Ritchie and Michael Mann. Who tell them that they are right to worry, but that disaster can be diverted by a rapid transition to renewables and a phasing out of fossil fuels.
Stinnett referred to the general public’s concern over environmental issues as “a mile wide and an inch deep,” meaning there is general awareness, but it’s not pushing the needle one way or the other politically.
The majority believe that “Climate Change” is a threat to the environment and health of the planet. BUT, they also believe these threats are still comfortably far off enough in the future that expensive actions or sacrifices are not required today.
If you tell people that a Climate Apocalypse has ALREADY started happening and that civilization is probably going to Collapse as a consequence of that fact. Well, that makes you a “Doomer” because you are telling people that it’s “too late” and so “we might as well do nothing”.
At least, that’s how “Doomers” are being talked about in the mainstream media. Hannah has stated that “Doomers are WORSE than deniers” and Dr. Mann has stated that he regards “Doomism” as a form of mental illness.
SO.
ACCEPTING the reality of Green House Gas (GHG) caused global warming and climate change. BUT, interpreting it as being WORSE than the current Climate Paradigm states, also puts you in the minority. Being a Climate Change “Doomer” increasingly marks you as “fringe”.
AT LEAST FOR NOW.
Because things are RAPIDLY getting worse. So much so that the Moderates in Climate Science released this paper on October 8th.
The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very…
Which neatly solves my dilemma. I don’t have to tell you what the Moderate Climate Science position says, they have articulated it in this 13 page paper. All I need do, is “break it down” and we should have a clear and accurate understanding of how mainstream Climate Science see’s the developing Climate Crisis that is sweeping over the planet.
SO, without further ado. Let's begin.
Whose name’s are on the report.
“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.”
The opening paragraph is DIRE.
“For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change.”
This is an interesting way to phrase this. They could have simply stated “scientists have sounded the alarm”. Instead they emphasize that there is “a group” of “more than 15,000”.
“For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed — and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. 2023).”
OK. They are saying the predictions that increasing levels of CO2 would cause global warming back in the 70’s were correct. They “predicted” that would cause planetary warming and they were correct. This was predicted “not only” by “independent academic scientists” but also by “fossil fuel companies”.
Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023).
If you knew NOTHING else about this paper. That estimate of +2.7°C by 2100 tells you that this paper represents the position of the MODERATE faction in Climate Science. The best ALARMIST model indicates about +5.7°C for the SAME AMOUNT of CO2. However DIRE this paper sounds, it is actually minimizing the amount of warming that could happen.
“Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage.”
“We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence.”
“We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo (supplemental figure S1; CenCO2PIP Consortium et al. 2023).”
That’s HOW LONG it’s been since CO2 levels were this high.
“Last year, we witnessed record-breaking sea surface temperatures (Cheng et al. 2024), the hottest Northern Hemisphere extratropical summer in 2000 years (Esper et al. 2024), and the breaking of many other climate records (Ripple et al. 2023a). Moreover, we will see much more extreme weather in the coming years (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021).”
“Human-caused carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of climate change.”
“As of 2022, global fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes account for approximately 90% of these emissions, whereas land-use change, primarily deforestation, accounts for approximately 10% (supplemental figure S2).”
“Our aim in the present article is to communicate directly to researchers, policymakers, and the public. As scientists and academics, we feel it is our moral duty and that of our institutions to alert humanity to the growing threats that we face as clearly as possible and to show leadership in addressing them.”
This is CLIMATE SCIENCE talking. This is the “official version” of what’s happening with the Climate System.
“In this report, we analyze the latest trends in a wide array of planetary vital signs. We also review notable recent climate-related disasters, spotlight important climate-related topics, and discuss needed policy interventions. This report is part of our series of concise annual updates on the state of the climate.”
Recent trends in planetary vital signs
“In 2023, various historical temperature and ice extent records were broken by enormous margins (figure 1; Ripple et al. 2023a).”
“Both global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were far above their 1991–2024 averages for much of the year — a pattern that has continued well into 2024 (figure 1a, 1b).”
“Although Antarctic and global sea ice extent have now come into range of previous years, they remain well below their 1993–2024 averages (figure 1c, 1d).”
“Global daily mean temperatures were at record levels for nearly half of 2023 and much of 2024 (figure 1e).”
“On our current emissions trajectory, we MAY (emphasis mine) regularly surpass current temperature records in future years (Matthews and Wynes 2022).”
OMG, on our “current emissions trajectory” we ABSOLUTELY WILL “regularly surpass current temperature records in future years”. Enough with the “wishy-washy” language already.
“Of the 35 planetary vital signs we track annually (figures 2 and 3), 25 are at record levels (supplemental table S1). The global failure to support a rapid and socially just fossil fuel phasedown has led to rapidly escalating climate-related impacts (table 1). Below, we focus on variables that have either changed greatly or are at record extremes.”
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 3
The human enterprise
“Our graphical account illustrates how humanity’s collective size and consumption patterns continued to accelerate on multiple fronts. Although fertility rates were down slightly to a record low in 2023, other variables set all-time record highs, including human population, ruminant livestock population, per capita meat production, and gross domestic product (GDP; figure 2a–2e).”
“Human population and ruminant livestock population have been increasing at approximately 200,000 and 170,000 per day respectively. Decoupling the growth in all of these variables with greenhouse gas emissions may be difficult (Ripple et al. 2024).”
Energy
“Fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5% in 2023 relative to 2022 (figure 2h), mostly because of substantial increases in coal consumption (1.6%) and oil consumption (2.5%; figure 2h).”
“Renewable energy use also grew in 2023, with solar and wind consumption together rising 15% relative to 2022 (figure 2h). Much of this growth can be attributed to the fact that renewable energy is often cheaper than comparable new fossil fuel alternatives (Roser 2020).”
“However, fossil fuel consumption remains roughly 14 times greater than solar and wind energy consumption (figure 2h) and recent growth in the renewable share of electricity generation mostly covered increased demand, instead of replacing fossil fuels (REN21 2024).”
Let’s talk about what that really means. Let’s talk about Norway.
This country is now the world's first to have more EVs than gas-powered cars
Norway leads the world in EV adoption thanks in part to government incentives funded by oil and gas sales.
Americans, on average, use about 11,000 Watts of energy for every minute of the day.
Norwegians, on average, use about 22,000 Watts of energy per minute.
DECARBONIZING the way we live our lives, DOUBLES energy consumption, at a minimum. To successfully stop using fossil fuels will require at least 2X to 3X more ENERGY than we currently produce.
When you hear news about the “rapid growth” of renewables, keep those numbers in mind.
Forests
“Global tree cover loss rose from 22.8 megahectares (Mha) per year in 2022 to 28.3 Mha per year in 2023, reaching its third-highest level (figure 2f); this was at least partly because of wildfires, which caused tree cover loss to reach a record high of 11.9 Mha (figure 3n).”
“High rates of tree cover loss can drive a set of related feedback loops, wherein the loss of forest carbon sequestration leads to additional warming, which can drive further losses in carbon sequestration and so on (Ripple et al. 2023b, Goldman and Carter 2024). This type of climate carbon feedback process could limit the success of some natural climate solutions.”
“In 2023, there was also a dramatic decline in the land carbon sink according to Ke and colleagues (https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.12447 [preprint: not peer reviewed]).”
NORMALLY, the Terrestrial Land “Sinks” absorb about 25% of that CO2 each year. That’s about 9.35 GtCO2 annually.
In 2023, the Terrestrial Land Sinks only absorbed about 0.44 GtCO2.
“On a more positive note, the deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon continued to decline, dropping from 1.16 Mha in 2022 to 0.90 Mha in 2023 (figure 2g). This decrease may be partly because of the shifting policies of Brazil’s government (Vilani et al. 2023) and comes at a critical time given that the Amazon may be nearing a tipping point where a loss of resilience and positive feedback loops contribute to large-scale forest dieback (Boulton et al. 2022, Flores et al. 2024).”
Global greenhouse gases and temperature
“Annual energy-related emissions increased 2.1% in 2023, and are now above 40 gigatons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent for the first time (figure 2k).”
A gigatonne is 1,000,000,000 tonnes, and is often used when discussing human carbon dioxide emissions. This is roughly the mass of all land mammals (other than humans) in the world. It’s also roughly twice the mass of all of the people in the world. 40Gt is equal to every person in the world putting 80X their body weight worth of CO2 into the air.
“The top three emitting countries are China, the United States, and India, which, together, account for over half of global emissions (supplemental table S2).”
“Anthropogenic emissions of aerosol pollutants are declining; because these aerosols have a net cooling effect, this reduction may be causing the rate of global warming to accelerate (Hansen et al. 2023).”
The one “nod” to the Alarmists that is made in this paper.
“On the basis of global year-to-date averages, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are at record highs (figure 3a, 3b). Carbon dioxide levels were recently observed to be surging (NOAA 2024).”
The growth rate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere jumped 86% in 2023 compared to 2022. The CO2 level increased by +3.51ppm in a SINGLE year.
“Furthermore, the growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is very troubling (Shindell et al. 2024). Nitrous oxide is also at a record high (figure 3c); annual anthropogenic emissions of this potent long-lived greenhouse gas have increased by roughly 40% from 1980 to 2020 (Tian et al. 2024).”
“Surface temperature is at a record high, and 2024 is expected to be one of the hottest years ever recorded (figure 3d).”
“Each +0.1°C of global warming places an extra 100 million people (or more) into unprecedented hot average temperatures (Lenton et al. 2023). On our current trajectory, future years will almost certainly be even hotter, because our climate continues to shift away from conditions associated with human thriving for much of Earth’s population (Vecellio et al. 2023).”
“Even in the most optimistic scenarios, large-scale climate adaptation efforts will be needed, particularly for the most vulnerable populations (Ripple et al. 2022)”.
Oceans and ice
“Ocean acidity and ocean heat content are both at record extremes (figure 3f, 3g), which has led to various ocean-related climate impacts.”
“For example, heat waves in 2021 and 2023 caused marine animal mass mortality events (White et al. 2023, Goreau and Hayes 2024).”
“In addition, the average global sea level is presently at a record high, mostly because of both overall warming and a strong El Niño in 2023 and part of 2024 (figure 3h; Lee 2024). Continued sea level rise has the potential to displace hundreds of millions of people over the course of the century (Kulp and Strauss 2019).”
“Melting continental ice contributes about half to sea level rise (Horwath et al. 2021), and the latest data indicate that Greenland’s ice mass, Antarctica’s ice mass, and the average glacier thickness are all at record lows (figure 3j–3l).”
Climate impacts and extreme weather
“Climate-related extreme weather and disasters are contributing greatly to human suffering (figure 4). Increasing heat and rainfall extremes are now far outside the historical climate (Robinson et al. 2021).”
The rapid increase in average global temperatures (figure 1e)
has led to a massive rise in the incidence of heat extremes (figure 3p).
“This is linked to many adverse human outcomes, including direct mortality, increased healthcare costs, mental health issues, and deaths from cardio-respiratory diseases (Ebi et al. 2021).”
“Climate change has already contributed to billions of people facing extreme heat (Arrighi et al. 2024).”
“Heat-related mortality is rising rapidly in the United States (Figure 2i); the number of heat-related deaths increased by 117% from 1999 to 2023 (Howard et al. 2024).”
“Last year, there were four billion-dollar floods in the United States (a tie for the record; figures 3o and S4). Since the publication of our last report (Ripple et al. 2023a), numerous other major climate-related disasters have occurred, including a series of heat waves across Asia that killed more than a thousand people and led to temperatures reaching 50°C in some parts of India (table 1).”
“Because the Earth system is strongly nonlinear, extreme weather and disaster rates can increase dramatically in response to global warming, including impacts on plant and animal life.”
Climate spotlight
“In this section, we spotlight recent developments in various different climate-related areas: coral bleaching, toxic orange rivers, solar radiation modification (SRM) research, climate scientists’ opinion on global temperatures, climate change as a social justice issue, climate feedback loops and tipping points, and the risk of societal collapse.”
Coral bleaching
“Coral reefs benefit millions of people by providing a wide range of ecosystem services, including coastal protection, improved water quality, fisheries, and tourism opportunities; they also provide habitat for many species (Woodhead et al. 2019).”
“Climate change is a particularly serious threat to coral reefs (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2017).”
“Warm-water coral death is sometimes preceded by bleaching — the loss of a symbiotic relationship with microalgae (figure 5a; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2017). When a sharp spike in sea temperature unfolds well above the long-term average summer maximum, many corals die quickly within a week or two without having time to bleach. Others bleach and either die more slowly over a period of a few months or regain their color and survive (Hughes et al. 2018).”
“As of 2024, extraordinarily warm ocean temperatures (figure 1a) are driving the fourth global-scale coral bleaching event ever recorded (previous events: 1998, 2010, 2014–2017; Thiem 2024).”
Toxic orange rivers
“Climate change in the Arctic is altering watershed hydrology and water biogeochemistry.”
“Recently, researchers have observed an emergent threat in Arctic streams that turned orange because of increased iron and toxic metals (figure 5b).”
“This discoloration began in the last decade, coinciding with rapid global warming and permafrost thaw (O’Donnell et al. 2024). Compared with clear streams, orange streams are more acidic, have higher turbidity, and have elevated sulfate, iron, and trace metals.”
“This discoloration correlates with declines in macroinvertebrate diversity and fish abundance, affecting drinking water and subsistence fisheries in rural Alaska (O’Donnell et al. 2024).”
Solar radiation modification research
“SRM research, also known as solar geoengineering research, has been dramatically increasing in recent years (figure 5c).”
“SRM involves potentially risky techniques to reflect sunlight away from Earth to mitigate climate change effects.”
“General categories of SRM include atmospheric, terrestrial, and space-based applications (Keith 2020). Specific methods, for example, include injecting aerosols into the stratosphere or brightening marine clouds.”
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that stratospheric aerosol injection is the most-researched SRM method, but there are a number of environmental concerns (IPCC 2018, Visioni et al. 2020).”
“SRMs are also controversial because of potential unintended consequences and ethical concerns. Critics argue that it is misguided and may disrupt weather patterns and deter emissions reduction efforts (Whyte 2018). However, research continues to explore its feasibility and risks.”
“SRM is often seen as a TEMPORARY (emphasis mine), potentially important solution to both reduce warming and corresponding damages including for the highly important and fast-warming subpolar regions (Smith et al. 2022).”
“Research into solar geoengineering needs to focus on understanding the potential environmental, social, and geopolitical impacts, as well as assessing effectiveness and safety on both regional and global scales (Sovacool et al. 2022). In addition, interdisciplinary research is required to explore ethical, legal, and governance frameworks, along with public perception and acceptance, while emphasizing the critical importance of drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”
“There is a consensus study available as a roadmap for solar geoengineering research and research governance (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2021).”
Climate scientists’ opinion on global temperatures
“A 2024 opinion poll has unveiled the predictions of hundreds of prominent climate scientists of the IPCC, senior authors, and review editors (380 respondents).”
“From a personal perspective, nearly 80% of these scientists anticipate global temperatures increasing by at least 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century (Carrington 2024). Nearly half of them foresee a rise of at least 3°C. A mere 6% believe that the internationally agreed-on limit of 1.5°C will be achieved (figure 5d).”
“This parallels an earlier survey of IPCC scientists, which showed that approximately 60% expected warming of at least 3°C (Tollefson 2021).”
“These projections paint a bleak picture of the future, with many scientists envisioning widespread famines, conflicts, mass migration, and increasing extreme weather that will surpass anything witnessed thus far, posing catastrophic consequences for both humanity and the biosphere (Carrington 2024).”
“It is important to keep in mind, however, that such characterizations can suffer from conflation of matters of science (i.e., how much warming are we committed to for a given emissions pathway) and matters of policy (what pathways are still possible and what the obstacles are).”
“There is no way to know, for example, whether the polled IPCC physical scientists based their assessments on the science or simply on their views of the political prospects for action (Mann and Hayhoe 2024)”.
“One of the numerous challenges for scientists is how to communicate about climate change (Guenther 2024).”
“Some have argued that attitudes of pessimism and resignation can be obstructive to climate action.”
“Moreover, some say those who oppose action have resorted to alternative strategies including the propagation of pessimism, because embracing a sense of helplessness can undermine the motivation for action (Mann and Hayhoe 2024).”
“Conversely, it has also been suggested that optimism gives rise to inaction, if people think things are fine and therefore action is not needed (Wilson 2021).”
“In any case, the importance of tone may be overstated in this context, and more research is needed to better identify motivating factors for climate action (Bamberg et al. 2018).”
“With the increasingly undeniable effects of climate change, a dire assessment is an honest assessment. Denying the existential threat posed by climate change is becoming increasingly less plausible”.
“The fact is that avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important. Rather than presenting a climate change prognosis pessimistically or optimistically, we just want to act truthfully and tell it like it is.”
“We must emphasize both urgency and agency when it comes to our characterizations of the needed action on climate” -(Mann 2023).
Climate change as a social justice issue
“Climate change is a matter of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), because the wealthy people that emit the most greenhouse gases are generally less vulnerable to climate impacts (figure 5e).”
“Although the ramifications of emissions are global, they are particularly severe in the Global South (Ngcamu 2023). Vulnerability to climate change is shaped by a complex interplay of social, economic, and political factors, leaving historically diverse, underserved, and marginalized communities disproportionately affected (Levy and Patz 2015).”
“DEI principles underscore the urgency to address these disparities. Embedding climate change within the framework of organizational DEI activities may help to foster comprehensive and meaningful progress toward equity and sustainability.”
“By recognizing the disproportionate impacts of climate change on marginalized communities, organizations can work toward rectifying historical injustices by funding countries in the Global South to maintain decarbonization while addressing urgent climate change concerns. In addition, DEI considerations are relevant to international climate policy; for example, they can help guide efforts to rapidly and equitably phase out fossil fuel extractions (Muttitt and Kartha 2020).”
“The ethical dimensions of climate change have led many faith leaders to speak out on the issue (e.g., Nhat Hanh 2015, Pope Francis 2023). This represents an opportunity for diverse communities to build alliances around the issue.”
Climate feedback loops and tipping points
“Awareness and research need to increase on climate feedback loops.”
Yah think?
“Feedback loops are processes that can either amplify or reduce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Many significant feedback loops enhance warming. At least 28 amplifying feedback loops have been identified (tables 2a, 2b).”
“A particularly concerning feedback loop is the permafrost feedback loop, which involves rising temperatures causing permafrost thawing. This process releases more carbon dioxide and methane, leading to further warming.”
“Areas of active climate feedback loop research include permafrost–cloud interactions (de Vrese et al. 2024), glacier meltwater (Pelle et al. 2023), and biodiversity (Weiskopf et al. 2024).”
“Because feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming.”
“Some climate feedback loops are linked to tipping points, potentially triggering major and irreversible changes in the Earth system without further pushing by human activities.”
“Tipping elements are biophysical systems on Earth with tipping point behavior that contribute to regulating the climate system (Lenton et al. 2008). They have recently been assessed for their tipping sensitivity.”
“Five of sixteen climate tipping elements are likely to cross their tipping points at 1.5°C: the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, boreal permafrost, low-latitude coral reefs, and the Barents Sea Ice (Armstrong McKay et al. 2022).”
The Global Mean Temperature has been ABOVE +1.5°C for over 15 months now. It will probably NOT go below +1.5°C for thousands of years.
“Several climate tipping elements are connected, and if one tips, others may tip, triggering a tipping point cascade (Wunderling et al. 2024).”
“Overall, this points to a complex situation where climate controlling feedback loops and tipping point systems are interconnected in a way that could trigger self-perpetuating processes that amplify warming beyond human control. Therefore, we recommend the IPCC publish a special report on feedback loops and tipping points.”
Risk of societal collapse
“The climate emergency is not an isolated issue. Global heating, although it is catastrophic, is merely one aspect of a profound polycrisis that includes environmental degradation, rising economic inequality, and biodiversity loss (Hoyer et al. 2023).”
“Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological overshoot, where human consumption outpaces the Earth’s ability to regenerate (Rees 2023, Ripple et al. 2024). Overshoot is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely.”
“As pressures increase and the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises (Steffen et al. 2018), more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse (Brozović 2023). Even in the absence of global collapse, climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050 (WHO 2023).”
Many millions of additional deaths by 2050. That’s the Moderate estimate of fatalities by 2050. Contrast that with my estimate of 1.5 to 2.5 billion by 2035.
“Along with the broader danger of overshoot, climate change could contribute to a collapse by increasing the likelihood of catastrophic risks such as international conflict or by causing multiple stresses, resulting in system-wide synchronous failures (Kemp et al. 2022). The number of published articles using climate change and societal collapse language has been dramatically increasing (figure 5f; supplemental methods).”
“Climate change has already displaced millions of people, and has the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions more, leading to greater geopolitical instability (Table S3).
“By the end of the century, roughly one-third of people worldwide (30%) could be outside the human climate niche, facing increased risk of illness and early death, famine, and a host of other adverse outcomes (Lenton et al. 2023).”
That’s just under 3 BILLION people who will have to be “relocated”.
Conclusions
“Despite six IPCC reports, 28 COP meetings, hundreds of other reports, and tens of thousands of scientific papers, the world has made only very minor headway on climate change, in part because of stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system.”
“We are currently going in the wrong direction, and our increasing fossil fuel consumption and rising greenhouse gas emissions are driving us toward a climate catastrophe. We fear the danger of climate breakdown”.
“The evidence we observe is both alarming and undeniable, but it is this very shock that drives us to action. We recognize the profound urgency of addressing this global challenge, especially the horrific outlook for the world’s poor.”
“We feel the courage and determination to seek transformative science-based solutions across all aspects of society (table S4). Our goal is to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders.”
“Rapidly phasing down fossil fuel use should be a top priority.”
“This might be accomplished partly through a sufficiently high global carbon price that could restrain emissions by the wealthy while potentially providing funding for much-needed climate mitigation and adaptation programs.”
“In addition, pricing and reducing methane emissions is critical for effectively mitigating climate change. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and unlike carbon dioxide, which persists in the atmosphere for centuries, methane has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, making reductions impactful in the short term (Shindell et al. 2024).”
“Drastically cutting methane emissions can slow the near-term rate of global warming, helping to avoid tipping points and extreme climate impacts.”
Natural Gas was a BAD idea. It must be abandoned, NOW.
“In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the affluent, stabilizing and gradually reducing the human population through empowering education and rights for girls and women, reforming food production systems to support more plant-based eating, and adopting an ecological and post-growth economics framework that ensures social justice (Table S4).”
“Climate change instruction should be integrated into secondary and higher education core curriculums worldwide to raise awareness, improve climate literacy, and empower learners to take action. We also need more immediate efforts to protect, restore, or rewild ecosystems.”
These are the things that make White MAGA voters RABID. Does anyone think that forcing them into compliance will be easy? Does anyone think that there is now any other option than enforced compliance now?
“The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major crisis with worse to come if we continue with business as usual.”
“Today, more than ever, our actions matter for the stable climate system that has supported us for thousands of years. Humanity’s future depends on our creativity, moral fiber, and perseverance.”
“We must urgently reduce ecological overshoot and pursue immediate large-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation to limit near-term damage. Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve.”
“The future of humanity hangs in the balance.”
If you think that this assessment sounds EXTREME. Remember, this is the Moderates speaking. They are projecting only +2.7°C of warming by 2100 in this report.
What they aren’t saying, is how they think that is even possible. Given that we are now at +1.6°C and just had a +0.5°C global temperature increase over the last 4 years.
They are projecting an additional +1.1°C of warming from an increase of another +100ppm of CO2 over the next 50 years. With “Net Zero” being achieved sometime around 2075.
Does that seem realistic?
Remember.
“Because feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming.”
OMG is that an understatement.
Still, this is the “position paper” of the Moderates in Climate Science. It is the “mainstream” position on the “State of the Climate System”. This is “the science” that world leaders, the media, and general public are being told to trust.
As BAD as it is. I’m telling you, things are actually much, much worse.
End Part Three.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 101224
Personal Thoughts:
This is a HUGE paper to get through. I apologize for that. However, sometime the Universe just “speaks” to you and you have to “go with the flow”.
I was struggling to sum up the current mainstream position in Climate Science and WHAM. Three days ago this pops up in my inbox. A report by the Moderate faction in Climate science that lays out their position in detail.
I kinda HAD to do a “walk through” of this paper.
What you should do, is consider this paper as the MINIMUM floor for the effects of Global Warming for the rest of this century. This report represents the “best case”.
Because if they are wrong about Climate Sensitivity, it will be twice as much warming, twice as fast.
Apropos of that. Here was something I saw recently on Reddit.
“If we had taken climate change seriously by 1970, we could have prevented disaster with a minor slow down in economic growth.”
“If we had taken climate change seriously by 1980, we could have prevented disaster with a serious but sustainable effort.”
“If we had taken climate change seriously by 1990, we could have prevented disaster with a painful commitment to combating the crisis on par with WW2.”
“If we had taken climate change seriously by 2000, we could have prevented disaster with a global maximum sacrificial effort that would scar humanity for decades, but save us in the end.”
“Instead, we stepped on the gas as we approached the cliff, and there is no way to avoid what’s coming.”
u/AttilaTheFunOne
Richard,
First and foremost: Thank you for such a very cogent and critically important posting detailing the issues from "the moderates" own writings.
However, it is oh so much worse than this. Consider several points.
1) We are not at 420 ppm, or 422 CO2, or 424 ppm CO2. The meaningful comparison is warming NOT CO2 when comparing to ancient ice cores and other records. CO2(e) is the relevant comparator. Today we are at about 556 ppm CO2(e). The last time we were there is between 21 and 34 Mya with a most likely time of about 31-32 Mya.
2) At 555 ppm CO2(e) we have already blown past any of the trajectories. We are at doubled "CO2".
3) The IPCC is a politically and financially governed body. Everything they say is vetted through politicians from all of the major countries of the world, and limited by all of the major financial players in what they are allowed to say. That is NOT science, nor the opinion of scientists. That is the opinion they are allowed to share after begging mother may I.
4) The IPCC is NOT allowed to incorporate any science newer than a decade old, meaning data from not sooner than a dozen years ago. Talk about driving with the windshield blacked out and relying on our rearview mirrors to tell us where to go.
5) The denialists will come to bloody violence before they accept anything that contradicts what they want, or what the politicians bought and owned by the oligarchs and industrialists will allow them to say. With something like 40% of people in that camp, heavily armed, and firmly denying basic reality, there is no realistic possibility that we can do anything significant to change our course, until the rate of destruction of the environment is so great that they are immediately and repeatedly devastated themselves. And even that is likely not enough.
6) Lastly, why would I or any sane person consider anything Mann has to say?
Of course it's worse than they're telling us. Just ask people in Chimney Rock and Asheville, NC. Both cities are gone😞 Florida is decimated and it will only get worse from here.