The Crisis Report - 92
Let me tell you what this chart means.
It means, James Hansen is probably right. +1.5°C has been permanently crossed now.
It means that we have already “cooled down” from the El Nino. Last year the El Nino “peaked” for several days at +2.0
Here’s Berkeley Earth’s report through August 2024.
They state.
“This is the fifteenth consecutive month to set or tie the monthly global temperature record, with many months setting new records by large margins. In addition, August 2024 marks the fourteenth consecutive month at least 1.5 °C warmer than the corresponding 1850 to 1900 monthly average.”
Here’s what that translates into in the “real world”.
Millions of Americans have never been this hot in October before as a historic heat wave hits | CNN
Millions of people in the West are experiencing a dangerous and historic October heatwave with temperatures so extreme…
This chart shows temperature “anomalies”. How much hotter or cooler a location is above the 1991–2020 average for this date. The circled area is the heat wave CNN is reporting on.
SO, really temperatures have been running at about +1.65°C for about 12 months now. We report that as being +1.5°C or LOWER, because what gets talked about in the Media isn’t the BLUE line. What we talk about is the RED line. The 132 month rolling average number.
By using that number for warming (+1.46°C) Berkeley Earth (Zeke Hausfather) can make statements like this.
“One of the Paris Agreement ambitions has been to limit global warming to no more than +1.5°C (2.7°F) above the preindustrial baseline.”
“That goal is defined in reference to the average climate over many years, so a few individual months or a single year above +1.5°C do not automatically mean that the target has been exceeded.”
“However, recent anomalies above +1.5°C are a sign that the Earth is getting close to that limit.”
“It is likely that global warming will cause the long-term average to exceed +1.5°C during the late 2020s or early 2030s unless significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved soon.”
The Moderate Faction in Climate Science has gone into DEEP Denial about what’s happening right in front of their eyes. They are STILL talking about “significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions” preventing +1.5°C from becoming the “long-term average”.
THIS CHART SAYS THEY ARE WRONG.
2024 is behaving exactly the way James Hansen predicted it would, back in early 2022.
The UN has confirmed that we are about to get a massive temperature spike.
From May of 2022, when I wrote this.
Here’s my prediction.
The first big “Climate Shock” is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3–5 years.
(I got that right)
It’s a 3 part storm:
Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It’s simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021
The Earth Energy Imbalance has climbed to about +1.6W/m2. In 2014 it was about +0.6W/m2. The change in the Albedo has been acknowledged by mainstream climate science.
2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
Heat in World’s Oceans More Than Ever Recorded.
Hottest ocean temperatures in history recorded last year.
We got the 2023/2024 El Nino. El Nino’s seem to be happening on a 4 year cycle now.
3. Warming that was being masked by SOx emissions will rapidly take place due to the changes in diesel fuels in the shipping industry in 2020.
Cleaner Air in 2020: 0.5% sulfur cap for ships enters into force worldwide.
The Climate Moderates STILL refuse to acknowledge this as the cause of the warming. They CANNOT yield on this point. If they do, they are admitting that their Climate Models are deeply flawed towards minimizing the effects of CO2 on the Climate System.
I think, that all of this will combine to push warming above 2C by 2026. I think, that the next 2–6 years are going to be insanely hot.
Remember, in 2022 the next El Nino was forecast as being “between 2023 and 2025”. I was confident it would happen in 2023/2024 but I used the WMO estimate here.
Also, the +2°C I am forecasting was the “peak” for the next El Nino. I “nailed” it.
Let’s see,
The IPCC is forecasting (in 2022) warming of +0.4C by 2026.
So, an El Nino “peak” of around +1.5°C/+1.6°C, then dropping back to around +1.3°C.
James Hansen is forecasting (in 2022) +0.6C of warming by 2026.
So, an El Nino “peak” of around +1.7°C/+1.8°C, then dropping back to around +1.5°C.
I am forecasting (in 2022) +0.8C of warming by 2026.
So, an El Nino “peak” of around +1.9°C/+2.0°C, then dropping back to around +1.8°C. I was a little high on this. The El Nino was a bigger part of the warming than I projected.
We are all saying there is going to be warming. We are all saying part of that warming is going to be an El Nino (that’s what the IPCC is implying when they say the warming will be temporary). We are all saying that some of this warming is going to be caused by SOx getting washed out of the atmosphere.
We are all saying the same thing, we just disagree about how hot it’s going to get.
The IPCC, throughout it’s entire history, has always underestimated and understated the amount of warming that actually occurred.
May, 2022
— — — — — -
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED?
The Global Mean Temperature in 2021 was +1.1°C. That’s the IPCC, the WMO, and GISS all saying that. That’s a “mainstream” number.
So, +1.1°C in 2021.
I wrote that paper in May of 2022.
The El Nino “peaked” in 2023 at +2.03°C for several days. Then dropped down to about +1.65°C. Where it has stayed for about 12 months now.
Between 2021 and 2023 the Global Mean Temperature increased by +0.9°C. It then “dropped back” to +1.65°C. An increase of +0.55°C in roughly 2 years.
Somewhere between James Hansen’s forecast and my own.
This would make about +0.55°C of the warming a “permanent” increase from “unmasking” warming hidden by SOx aerosols. In 2021 Hansen forecast this warming would be about +0.6°C. In 2016, at the request of the International Maritime Organization Zeke Hausfather and David Rhodes estimated that this “unmasked” warming would be “no more than +0.06°C.
It looks like Hansen’s estimate was pretty close. That makes:
+0.55°C of the 2023 warming the result of SOx aerosol unmasking
+0.35°C of the 2023 warming the result of the El Nino, about on par with a mid-range El Nino.
Here’s something else it tells us.
The Rate of Warming seems to have ACCELERATED to +0.5°C per decade.
Next year the “official” measurement for how warm 2024 was will get calculated. The official number, will use the rolling average from 2014 to 2024 to calculate the temperature for 2024 AND tell us the Rate of Warming between 2014 and 2024.
Remember, the Albedo really started rapidly “dimming” in 2014. That dimming increases the amount of ENERGY from the Sun going into the Climate System. The Earth Energy Imbalance was around +0.2W/m2 in 2004. It’s about +1.6W/m2 now.
So, warming started ACCELERATING around 2014. Next year we will get an official number for “how much” the Rate of Warming increased.
Here is my VERY “unofficial” rough calculation.
Starting in 2014, here is the “year by year” record.
2014 = +1.0°C (The Albedo begins rapidly “dimming”, this increases the EEI)
2015 = +1.18°C El Nino year 1 (Start of warming)
2016 = +1.3°C El Nino year 2 (Warming peaks)
2017 =+1.2°C ENSO cooling
2018 = +1.1°C ENSO cooling (La Nina)
2019 = +1.25°C El Nino year 1 (Start of warming)
2020 = +1.27°C El Nino year 2 (Warming peaks)
2021 = +1.1°C ENSO cooling
2022 = +1.18°C ENSO cooling (The oceans warmed up in a La Nina year!)
2023 = +1.55°C El Nino year 1 (peaked at +2.05°C)
2024 = +1.65°C El Nino year 2 (Surface Sea Temperature has NOT cooled down)
How much warming do you see between 2014 and 2024?
I see +0.5°C in a single decade.
We are at around +1.6°C right now.
The Rate of Warming seems to have increased to +0.5°C/decade in response to the change in the planetary albedo.
At that Rate of Warming we reach +1.80°C by 2030.
+2.0°C by 2035, at the latest.
Sadly, I think we will hit +2.0°C before 2035.
Probably between 2030 and 2035. Possibly as early as 2030.
If we get a BIG El Nino in 2027/2028 it’s possible that we will hit sustained +2.0°C by 2030.
The Rate of Warming has accelerated to +0.5°C per decade and multiple feedbacks are now working against us.
I would say it’s possible we hit +2°C around 2030, almost certainly before 2035. Then it’s AT LEAST +1.0°C per each 20 years.
This indicates at least +5°C by 2100.
At a MINIMUM.
The Moderate Faction of Climate Science that we decided to listen to for the last 40 years. Mostly because they told us it was “safe-ish” to build our economy on burning fossil fuels.
It looks like they were REALLY WRONG about those “risks”.
Am I right?
We will know in 12–24 months.
If I am wrong. I will shut up and sit down.
If I’m right, I’m sorry.
What’s about to happen is going to be REALLY BAD.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 10/06/2024
Personal Notes:
Words fail me.
Lately all I can do is cry...Thank you for continuing your work that helps us understand and at least be as mentally prepared as possible...
We warmed at 0.55 deg C over the last 10 years. I would hazard a guess the RoW will continue to accelerate "faster than expected". We ain't seen nuthin' yet.