The Crisis Report - 85
“If the Greenland ice sheet were to thaw today, it would raise sea levels by more than 20 feet over the coming centuries.” — Paul R. Bierman
It should read, “As the Greenland ice sheet melts, it will probably rise sea level +10 feet by 2100.
Because it means that the Greenland ice sheet isn’t very old. That’s VERY BAD news for us. It means sea level rise could be a LOT, “faster than expected”
SO.
This is how “Climate News” typically gets reported. First comes the “science part”, a paper on an accredited site or in an accredited publication.
AUGUST 5th.
Plant, insect, and fungi fossils under the center of Greenland’s ice sheet are evidence of ice-free times. — August 5, 2024 PNAS
ABSTRACT:
The persistence and size of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) through the Pleistocene is uncertain. This is important because reconstructing changes in the GrIS determines its contribution to sea level rise during prior warm climate periods and informs future projections.
To understand better the history of Greenland’s ice, we analyzed glacial till collected in 1993 from below 3 km of ice at Summit, Greenland. The till contains plant fragments, wood, insect parts, fungi, and cosmogenic nuclides showing that the bed of the GrIS at Summit is a long-lived, stable land surface preserving a record of deposition, exposure, and interglacial ecosystems.
Knowing that central Greenland was tundra-covered during the Pleistocene informs the understanding of Arctic biosphere response to deglaciation.
What are they talking about?
What’s the context for this information?
In the year 2000, there was 369.64 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.
Today, 2024, there are 421.55 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.
That’s an increase of +51.91ppm in just 24 years.
Between 1976 and 2000 the increase was +37.72ppm.
What this tells us is that the ice sheet on Greenland isn't “ancient”. It's probably not even a million years old.
THAT’S BAD NEWS.
Because it means that there is “no scenario” where it doesn’t completely melt at our current level of atmospheric CO2.
So, when these guys, “Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat” — August 2020
Wrote in 2020 that “Greenland has passed the point of “no return”.
Finding, that based on the amount of thermal energy which has already accumulated in the climate system, Greenland going to completely melt. Even if we got to Net Zero tomorrow, Greenland is going to melt, it’s “baked in” now.
They were right.
Greenland MELTS COMPLETELY at atmospheric CO2 levels over about 320ppm. We “locked in” 20ft. of sea level rise sometime around 1963 when we pushed CO2 levels above 320ppm for the first time in around a million years.
It’s not a question of IF Greenland melts anymore. We are WAY past that. Now it’s a question of HOW FAST?
That’s the context for this paper.
Now, why is it “significant”?
From the paper:
“data from the 1966 Camp Century (CC) core in northwest Greenland elucidate retreat timing, glacial processes, and former tundra ecosystems within 150 km of the ice margin (4, 5). Because there is a wide range of ice-extent scenarios under which CC could be ice-free, that core provides little information about central Greenland, the thickest and largest part of the ice sheet, which dominates GrIS contributions to global sea level (Fig. 1A).”
“In 1993, the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) recovered the only basal material from central Greenland: 40 cm of erratic boulders, 8 cm of till, and 105 cm of rock (Fig. 1B) 6–8. Analysis of sediment in the lowest basal ice revealed substantial organic carbon and nitrogen and meteoric 10Be — consistent with limited erosion, long subaerial exposure, and the presence of soil (9). A depth profile of cosmogenic nuclides from the GISP2 subglacial rock core indicated that central Greenland deglaciated at least once in the last 1.1 My (6). Here, we re-examine the till to learn about past conditions at Summit.”
The presence of poppy, spike-moss, fungal sclerotia, woody tissue, and insect parts in the GISP2 till shows that tundra vegetation once covered central Greenland, mandating that the island was largely ice-free.
“The fossil assemblage suggests that ice was replaced by a cold, dry, open environment where snow lingered into summer. The very dry exposed vegetation assemblage with abundant S. rupestris megaspores, fragile Cenococcum fungal sclerotia, and lack of other taxa including bryophytes suggests minimal fossil transport and a mean July temperature in central Greenland somewhere between 1 and 10 °C (16).”
“The timing of the most recent exposure of Summit remains uncertain although rock core 26Al/10Be data indicate that it occurred within the last 1.1 My (6). Argon measurements in the overlying clear ice suggest that it persisted for at least the past 250 ky (18). Some basal ice at the Greenland Ice Core Project 30 km away (Fig. 1A) is about 1 My old (19).”
It’s SIGNIFICANT because it tells us that “the interior” of Greenland was exposed 1.1 million years ago and didn’t glaciate until around 850,000 years ago.
It means, a minimum 20 feet of sea level rise is now 100% certain.
The question is “how fast”.
— — — — — —
That was the SCIENCE part. Then came the “reporting” of the science to various segments of the population.
I did a Google search on the topic and pulled articles from the first five pages of results. There may have been a few I missed but this is a pretty comprehensive listing of all the articles that have focused on this paper since it was released on August 5th.
Greenland fossil discovery stuns scientists and confirms that center of ice sheet melted in recent… - phys.org
“The story of Greenland keeps getting greener — and scarier. A new study provides the first direct evidence that the center — not just the edges — of Greenland’s ice sheet melted away in the recent geological past and the now-ice-covered island was then home to a green, tundra landscape.”
“The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on August 5th, confirms that Greenland’s ice melted and the island greened during a prior warm period likely within the last million years — suggesting that the giant ice sheet is more fragile than scientists had realized until the last few years.”
If the ice covering the center of the island was melted, then most of the rest of it had to be melted too. “And probably for many thousands of years,” Bierman said, enough time for soil to form and an ecosystem to take root.
“This new study confirms and extends that a lot of sea-level rise occurred at a time when causes of warming were not especially extreme,” said Richard Alley, a leading climate scientist at Penn State who reviewed the new research, “providing a warning of what damages we might cause if we continue to warm the climate.”
“damages we MIGHT cause if we continue to warm the climate.”
NO you Moderate ASS, this is damage we have ALREADY CAUSED.
Greenland is going to completely melt and we are going to get 20 feet of sea level rise as a result of it.
We probably won’t get more than 10 feet of sea level rise from Greenland by 2100. But by 2200 the Greenland ice sheet will be gone.
It’s WAY past the time that everyone needs to understands that.
Ancient poppy seeds and willow wood offer clues to the Greenland ice sheet's last meltdown and a… - theconversation.com
New analysis builds on the work of others who, over the past decade, have chipped away at the belief that Greenland’s ice sheet was present continuously since at least 2.6 million years ago when the Pleistocene ice ages began. In 2016, scientists measuring rare isotopes in rock from above and below the GISP2 soil sample used models to suggest that the ice had vanished at least once within the past 1.1 million years.
Now, by finding well-preserved tundra remains, we have confirmed that Greenland’s ice sheet had indeed melted before and exposed the land below the summit long enough for soil to form and for tundra to grow there. That tells us that the ice sheet is fragile and could melt again.
When Greenland’s ice is gone, world geography changes — and that’s a problem for humanity.
As the ice sheet melts, sea level will eventually rise more than 23 feet, and coastal cities will flood. Most of Miami will be underwater, and so will much of Boston, New York, Mumbai and Jakarta.
Today, sea level is rising at more than an inch each decade, and in some places, several times faster. By 2100, when today’s kids are grandparents, sea level around the globe is likely to be several feet higher.
Assuming that the RATE of Sea Level Rise doesn’t accelerate. Several feet is the MINIMUM amount you can argue for. I think closer to 10 feet is more likely. Most of that will happen after 2050 as “the melt” accelerates.
Fossils show Greenland was once ice-free - and could be again
Ancient plants, seeds and insects preserved beneath Greenland's ice sheet reveal that it once melted completely… - www.newscientist.com
An insect's eye and a poppy seed: Fossils found in ice deposit rewrite Greenland's geological past
A new study from researchers at UVM's Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources reveals that the center of… - www.nhpr.org
A new study published Monday finds most of Greenland’s ice sheet melted away in the recent geological past.
Co-authored by University of Vermont researchers Halley Mastro and Paul Bierman, the paper shows the presence of fossils in an ice segment taken from the center of Greenland’s ice sheet. The scientists say this shows life existed in an iceless environment less than 1.1 million years ago.
UVM requested a sample held at the National Science Foundation Ice Core Facility in Colorado, and were given a 3 inch specimen from 2 miles beneath the top of the ice sheet.
The sample from the core contained material never seen before. There were bits of rock spike moss, the preserved eye of an unknown insect and the seed of an Arctic poppy flower.
“So what the new findings mean right now is that not only do we have this isotopic evidence with mathematical models of the disappearance of the center of the ice sheet, but we actually have this tangible, tractable [thing],” Bierman said.
“I mean, when you find a fossil, you can explain that to anybody, right? ‘I’ve got a poppy seed under two miles of ice, how’d it get there?’”
Fossil discovery in Greenland ice sheet reveals increased risk of sea level rise
New research about Greenland's ice sheet could provide a warning of what's to come as the planet continues to warm. — www.cbsnews.com
Greenland has melted before, and as the climate warms, it will melt again — this time leading to what scientists warn could be 20 to 25 feet of sea-level rise.
During one of the warm periods within the last 1.1 million years, the center, not just the edges, of Greenland’s massive ice sheet melted away, new research has found, giving way to a dry and barren “tundra landscape” that was home to various insects and plant life. The findings were shared in a new paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
When the ice sheet initially melted, there were lower levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere than there are today. Now with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, scientists say Greenland’s ice sheet is more susceptible to melting than previously thought.
According to researchers, the fossils provide “direct confirmation” that 90% of the ice sheet was once gone.
“Finding these fossils in the center of the ice sheet is unambiguous evidence that Greenland’s ice has disappeared [in the past],” said Bierman. “And once you lose the center of the ice sheet, you’ve lost it all.”
The findings supports what’s called the “fragile Greenland” hypothesis: that nature, outside of human influence, has caused the ice sheet to melt at least once since it formed, Bierman said.
At 656,000 square miles, the Greenland ice sheet currently covers around 80% of the island territory. To put that into perspective, it’s about three times the size of Texas.
Risk of 'catastrophic' sea level rise increases after worrying Greenland discovery
The risk of a "catastrophic" sea-level rise that would swamp some of the world's major cities has increased after… — nypost.com
The new study provides confirmation that the 2016 “fragile Greenland” hypothesis is correct.
And it deepens the reasons for concern, showing that the island was warm enough, for long enough, that an entire tundra ecosystem, perhaps with stunted trees, established itself where today ice is 2 miles deep.
Bierman said: “We now have direct evidence that not only was the ice gone, but that plants and insects were living there.
“And that’s unassailable. You don’t have to rely on calculations or models.”
AUGUST 6th.
Ancient Plant, Insect Bits Confirm Greenland Melted in Recent Geologic Past — Columbia Climate School
Bits of plants and insects under thousands of meters of ice at the center of Greenland show that tundra existed there within the last million years.
In 2016, Joerg Schaefer of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and colleagues tested rock from the bottom of the same 1993 ice core (called GISP2) and published a study suggesting that the current Greenland ice sheet could be no more than 1.1 million years old. They said there had been extended ice-free periods over the past 2.7 million years, and that if the ice was melted at the GISP2 site, then 90% of the rest of Greenland would have also melted. It was a first step toward overturning the longstanding story that Greenland is an implacable fortress of ice, frozen solid for millions of years.
In 2019, Bierman and a team including Lamont-Doherty geochemist Sidney Hemming examined another ice core, this one extracted at Camp Century, near the coast of Greenland, in the 1960s. They were stunned to discover twigs, seeds and insect parts at the bottom of that core; it revealed the ice there had melted within the last 416,000 years.
“Once we made the discovery at Camp Century, we thought, ‘Hey, what’s at the bottom of GISP2?’” said Bierman. Though the ice and rock in that core had been studied extensively, no had looked to see if it contained plant or insect remains.
Under the microscope, scientists discovered willow wood, insect parts, fungi and a poppy seed (at center), in pristine condition despite having spent hundreds of thousands of years under the ice.
The new study lends further credence to the “fragile Greenland” hypothesis: An entire tundra ecosystem established itself where today ice is two miles deep.
Ancient poppy seeds and willow wood offer clues to the Greenland ice sheet's last meltdown — phys.org
Our new analysis builds on the work of others who, over the past decade, have chipped away at the belief that Greenland’s ice sheet was present continuously since at least 2.6 million years ago when the Pleistocene ice ages began. In 2016, scientists measuring rare isotopes in rock from above and below the GISP2 soil sample used models to suggest that the ice had vanished at least once within the past 1.1 million years.
Now, by finding well-preserved tundra remains, we have confirmed that Greenland’s ice sheet had indeed melted before and exposed the land below the summit long enough for soil to form and for tundra to grow there. That tells us that the ice sheet is fragile and could melt again.
AUGUST 9th.
Poppy Seed Found Beneath Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Vulnerability to Dramatic Melting
“Scientists have recovered an intact poppy seed and other plant remnants buried under two miles of ice in the heart of Greenland. The finding indicates that during a prior warm era, Greenland was almost entirely ice-free — an ominous precedent on a rapidly heating planet.”
AUGUST 10th.
Ancient Poppy Seeds And Willow Wood Offer Clues To Ice Sheet’s Last Meltdown — Discover Magazine
A tiny elongate poppy seed and small tan spikemoss megaspores and black soil fungus spheres were found in soil recovered from under 2 miles of Greenland’s ice.
Another ice core, DYE-3 from south Greenland, contained DNA showing that spruce forests covered that part of the island at some point in the past million years.
The biological evidence makes a convincing case for the fragility of Greenland’s ice sheet. Together, the findings from three ice cores can only mean one thing: With the possible exception of a few mountainous areas to the east, ice must have melted off the entire island in the past million years.
Greenland had been ice-free for extended periods of time - study — www.jpost.com
The study builds on previous research that questioned the long-held belief that Greenland’s ice sheet has been stable for millions of years. Earlier findings, such as those from 2016 and 2019, had already suggested that Greenland’s ice was not as permanent as once thought. The new evidence strengthens this view, demonstrating that past warming events were sufficient to melt the ice and support a tundra ecosystem.
The research serves as a stark warning about the potential consequences of human-caused climate change. The melting of Greenland’s ice sheet could have far-reaching impacts on global sea levels and coastal infrastructure. As scientists continue to study these past climatic shifts, the need for urgent action to mitigate current climate change becomes increasingly clear.
AUGUST 11th.
Fossils from Greenland's icy heart reveal it was a green tundra covered in flowers less than 1…
www.livescience.com
Over the years, opinion has shifted about whether Greenland has been continuously covered by ice since the start of the Pleistocene epoch, roughly 2.7 million years ago. But a new fossil discovery, described in a study published Aug. 5 in the journal PNAS, “provides the first direct evidence that the center — not just the edges — of Greenland’s ice sheet melted away in the recent geological past,” according to a statement from the University of Vermont.,
“Our new data is the strongest confirmation yet that the ice in the center of the island vanished and was replaced by a tundra ecosystem,” study lead author Paul Bierman, a geologist at the University of Vermont, told Live Science.
Greenland once had no ice, was green tundra filled with flowers a million years ago: Study
In present times, Greenland's 98 per cent area is covered with ice, however, less than a million years ago, it was…
www.wionews.com
AUGUST 12th.
Greenland's fossils reveal ancient greenery, climate threats
In the not-too-distant past, Greenland lived up to its name. Scientists have discovered plant and insect remains under…
www.dailysabah.com
The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates even greater potential for global sea level rise due to human-caused climate than previously thought.
The ice core, named GISP2, was drilled in 1993 and although its rock and ice had been studied extensively, nobody had thought to look for fossils in the “till,” or the mixed sediment at the bottom.
That’s because until recently the idea that Greenland was ice-free in the recent geologic past seemed too far-fetched.
“Literally, we saw the fossils within the first hour, maybe half-hour, of working on it,” lead author Paul Bierman, a professor of environmental science at the University of Vermont, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
To their amazement, researchers found within this 3-inch-layer (7.62-centimeter-layer) soil willow wood, spores from spikemoss, fungi, the compound eye of an insect and a poppy seed — together suggesting a vibrant tundra ecosystem.
If ice at the center of the island had melted away, it almost certainly means that it was also absent across the rest of Greenland — spelling trouble for today’s fossil-fuel-supercharged climate, said Bierman.
The new work builds on two important recent findings. In 2016, scientists tested bedrock from the same 1993 ice core, using radioactive dating to estimate it could be no more than 1.1 million years old.
The 2016 modeling showed that if the ice was melted at the GISP2 site, then 90% of the rest of Greenland would have been ice-free. But the finding was controversial because of a longstanding (MODERATE) theory that Greenland was an impenetrable ice fortress for the past several million years.
Greenland fossils reveal greater sea-level threat from climate change
In the not-too-distant past, Greenland lived up to its name. Scientists have discovered plant and insect remains under…
japantoday.com
Today, nearly 98% of Greenland is covered in ice — but new research suggests it was virtually ice-free less than a million years ago.
Over the years, opinion has shifted about whether Greenland has been continuously covered by ice since the start of the Pleistocene epoch, roughly 2.7 million years ago. But a new fossil discovery, described in a study published Aug. 5 in the journal PNAS, “provides the first direct evidence that the center — not just the edges — of Greenland’s ice sheet melted away in the recent geological past,” according to a statement from the University of Vermont.
The latest study reveals the center of Greenland was free of ice at some point in the last 1 million years. The landscape that is now covered by a layer of ice 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) thick hosted an entire tundra ecosystem, with flowers and potentially even small trees, according to the statement.
The finding that Greenland was once ice-free has implications for the present day.
An ice-free Greenland happened at lower levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide than present-day levels, so there’s potential for Greenland to be ice-free again, which would raise sea levels drastically.
“It will take decades, if not centuries, to lose its ice completely, but most of the sea level rise, more than from any other place, is coming from Greenland,” Bierman said.
There may be hope, however. “Nature has taken this ice sheet away in the past, and it has come back,” he said.
AUGUST 13th.
Fossils Reveal Greenland Was Once an Ice-Free Tundra
Recent research reveals that Greenland, now 98% covered in ice, was almost entirely ice-free at some point in the last…
www.gadgets360.com
The implications of this discovery are very significant. If Greenland was ice-free at lower levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide than today, it raises concerns about the island’s future. With current CO2 levels, there’s potential for Greenland to lose its ice once again, leading to a dramatic rise in sea levels.
Though the process of losing its ice might take decades or even centuries, the study highlights that Greenland’s ice sheet has melted before and could do so again.
This understanding adds urgency to the ongoing discussions about climate change and its potential impact on global sea levels. The research offers a sobering reminder of the planet’s changing climate and the delicate balance of its ecosystems.
Greenland Ice Sheet Melted In Recent Past — Mirage News
The study is confirmation that the 2016 “fragile Greenland” hypothesis is right. And it deepens the reasons for concern, showing that the island was warm enough, for long enough, that an entire tundra ecosystem, perhaps with stunted trees, established itself where today ice is two miles deep.
“We now have direct evidence that not only was the ice gone, but that plants and insects were living there,” Bierman said. “And that’s unassailable. You don’t have to rely on calculations or models.”
— — — — — —
So, what’s your “takeaway” from all of this?
Did you see or hear about it on ANY mainstream news source?
Before reading this, how much did you think the sea level was going to rise by 2100?
How much do you think it’s likely to rise now?
We cannot “stop” sea level rise.
If it’s ten feet by 2100 then we are going to lose almost every port city in the world by then.
The Moderate climate models are still showing less than two feet of sea level rise by 2100.
When you consider the science, would you be willing to “bet your children’s lives” on the Moderates being right?
Because now, we live in “Bomb Time” and everything is happening “faster than expected”.
rc 081924
The wording of that quote is weird - if the Greenland ice were to thaw today, it would raise sea levels "over centuries."
Last I heard, the calculations say Greenland ice melting leads to a 5m sea level rise by itself; so when that happens, it's already close to 20 feet right there, not over centuries.
This will lower the Earth's albedo effect, contributing to a Blue Ocean Event as well as an AMOC collapse, all of that contributing to the Antartic melting, which would entail an additional 60m sea level rise (back to before our current interglacial period). Barring cascading tipping points, that should take some centuries.
To me, it's so weird to think about how (barring extinction events) it will one day be normal for humans to live on an Earth with countless megacities underwater. I wonder if they will ever fully understand why we let that happen.
Things aren't anywhere near this rosey.
Your articles notes that we are at the red line at 421 ppm CO2. We aren't. We blew past that a long while ago. We are at about 565 ppm CO2(e).
The distinction is that human caused gas emissions besides CO2 greatly add to the warming. And other than at times like the PETM comparing CO2 then to CO2 now is invalid. Instead, the comparison must be to CO2(e) to account for the full driving force. Or better, CO2(e) in both cases, which amounts to the same result as CO2 then to CO2(e) now.
At 565 ppm CO2(e), we aren't now at double the CO2(e) from preindustrial times.
The shift from 178 ppm CO2 to 278 ppm CO2 in the ice age cycles resulted in a 10 C warming. Warming gases cause temperature change in a logarithmic fashion. So 10 C rise is to ln(278)/ln(178) as X degrees C is to ln(565)/ln(278). Solve for X = + 10.4 C. This accounts for the equilibrium response. But, this overstates methanes impact, and understates CO2 and methane releases from the environment that are not yet in equilibrium.
+11 C is ice free conditions and hot house Earth.
The question is whether we have already pushed so hard that ongoing methane and CO2 releases by the Earth are so great that a) man cannot overcome them, and b) that the thermal inertia of Antarctica and Greenland cannot overcome them.
With 1,500 GT of carbon as mixed CO2 and CH4 expected to be released from the tundra alone and perhaps 500 GT more from Arctic ocean clathrates, I have difficulty seeing any possibility of stopping the thermal runaway to hot house Earth even with every possible effort by humans being used.