The Crisis Report -81
We are all now, “holding our breath” until November.
Last week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed NATO delegates in Washington DC for a summit to mark the 75th anniversary of alliance. The mood was somber as everyone is clearly thinking about what will happen if Trump wins the election in November.
Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging
07/02/24 — Politico
“Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO so many times — or has appeared to, anyway — that for many of his critics, it’s a question of when, not whether, he’d ditch the 75-year-old alliance if he’s reelected president in November.”
“In truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact.”
Speaking to the mood of the moment, Zelenskyy stated.
“The world is now holding its breath until November”.
Zelenskyy says the world cannot wait until the US election in November to take action to repel Putin
In Geopolitical terms, the stakes of this US election cycle have become literally existential. To the rest of the world US politics are looking increasingly unhinged.
THEY HAVE SINCE J6 2021.
It seemed at first as if Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, Pence, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Heads of all the Agencies of State had things in hand. What happened was presented as an “aberration”. A political rally that “got out of hand” after Trump incited the mob to storm the Capitol Building to try and delay the official acceptance of the election results by the Vice President.
Biden has tried to project “normalcy” and “business as usual” to America’s enemies and allies. This resulted in a decision to “paper over” the coup attempt and “move on” in an effort to get stuff done.
This isn’t Biden’s fault. He has had to play a very “weak hand” the last four years.
He has actually played a BAD hand about as well as he could. If you don’t understand that, then you aren’t seeing what’s going on.
The Trumpublicans ATTEMPTED A COUP in 2021 in order to prevent the peaceful transfer of power as a result of the national elections. That’s what the world saw just over three years ago.
The world has not forgotten that fact.
They came within a hair of success, because no one could believe that they would be so brazen as to try. They thought they had a chance of succeeding because they have packed the Supreme Court with Conservative Loyalists.
If you aren’t an American. The Supreme Court is the FULCRUM of POWER in US politics. Like the High Priests of Ancient Rome, they anoint our Presidents with LEGITIMACY.
That LEGITIMACY is why the Secretaries of the Agencies and Offices of the State OBEY the orders of the President. Most importantly, it’s what gives the President power over the American Military.
Here’s a “thought experiment” to ponder.
If Trump “wins” in a contested vote count this Fall, because the Supreme Court intervenes like it did in the 2000 election. Would you prefer:
— — — — — — — —
A. The Military respects the decision of the “Trump Court”. Like the Wehrmacht in 1930’s Germany it bows to “the will of the people” and agrees to obey Trump’s commands.
B. The Military declares the Supreme Court “corrupt” and “biased”. They declare a National Emergency and essentially are running the country while the votes are carefully counted. The Joint Chiefs state that they will not allow the Supreme Court to “steal” the election and they promise to uphold the Constitution and serve whomever lawfully wins.
C. The Military fractures over this. The Joint Chiefs divide on the issue. There are assassinations and mutinies as the two factions attempt to seize control of crucial “choke points” in the military command structure. Multiple state governments declare that they will not accept the legitimacy of a Trump Presidency. Trump is unable to use the military to “take control” of breakaway states. A HOT Civil War breaks out.
— — — — — — — —
If Trump “WINS”, which of those should you be “hoping” for?
Because the Trumpublicans are counting on a TILTED Supreme Court to give the election to them if they can get close enough.
Trump allies test a new strategy for blocking election results — WAPO 06/26/24
In five battleground states, county-level officials have tried to block the certification of vote tallies. Which election experts worry is a test run for trying to thwart a Biden victory.
With the Court’s decision on “Presidential Immunity” for CRIMES committed while on “office time”. The Supreme Court has clearly signaled who’s side they are on.
The Trumpublicans are COUNTING on the Military “falling in line” and obeying the “sacred” judgement of the “High Court”. However, the Supreme/s made it clear in 2020 that they will not OPENLY STEAL the election for Trump.
They understood in 2020 that they needed to have at least a shred of legitimacy for any decision in Trump’s favor. Otherwise they risk a “crisis of legitimacy” at a time when their legitimacy as “unbiased” has been destroyed.
On an decision that decides “Who’s in Charge?” the Military might not be willing to “fall in line” and accept a Trump Dictatorship. The officers swear their oaths to “the constitution”, not to “the constitution as interpreted by a partisan Supreme Court in an attempt at coup by judiciary”.
That this question can even be “on the table” as a possibility, shows how fragile the American political situation has become.
Since 2021, Biden has been trying to avoid that scenario becoming a reality in 2024.
In 2021, Biden had to make a decision about how he was going to handle the J6 Coup attempt. The Pelosi controlled House of Representatives had voted for Trump’s Impeachment but the Trumpublican controlled Senate would not vote for his Conviction.
Biden won in 2020 by a +2% margin — 51% to 49%.
That’s a country which is basically at war with itself and is split right down the middle. How do you think he should have responded?
— — — — — — — —
A. With “Martial Law”, Emergency Powers Acts, and years of investigations to root out the traitors. Including putting Trump on trail and sending him to a Supermax prison. Probably having to clamp down heavily on “White America” and “MAGA Militias”. Almost certainly likely to lose reelection in 2024.
B. With “calm patience” and respect for the legal process. Letting tempers cool and appealing to everyone’s “better nature’s”. Then doing some “old school, bipartisan, pork barrel” politicking and send lots of money into Red States for infrastructure projects that make jobs. Win over “just enough” Trump voters to secure re-election in 2024 and get by this crisis without ugliness. Most importantly, without showing any weakness to the global community.
— — — — — — — — —
It was clear when Biden allowed Trump to slink off into what was supposed to be exile, which option he picked. If he had intended to be a “one term president” he would have pursued option one.
Instead Biden has worked tirelessly to defuse the damage that the J6 Coup Attempt caused us internationally. He has desperately tried to project strength and a “nothing to see here, business as usual” image abroad.
Instead of punishing Red States and Red State voters, Biden has showered federal monies on them.
Biden’s 2024 goody bags: Laws pump billions into Republican and swing states — Axios 04/05/24
Swing States Net Half of $114 Billion in Inflation Reduction Act Factory Investment — Bloomberg 04/02/24
Red states are big winners of Biden’s landmark laws — CNN 02/14/24
Most (51%) of the investments directly tied to incentives from the IRA and the CHIPS Act are flowing to Republican states, compared with 20% to blue states, according to a Fitch Ratings analysis shared exclusively with CNN. Fitch defined red states as those that voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by more than three percentage points.
Fitch found that another 29% of the investments linked to those laws went to swing states, ones that were decided by fewer than three points in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
About 50% of the jobs announced from the investments linked to the IRA and the CHIPS Act are expected to be in red states, compared with 17% for blue, according to the Fitch analysis shared with CNN. Another 33% are expected to be located in swing states.
Instead of “confronting” the situation head on in 2021, Biden has attempted to “sidestep” the situation and avoid confrontation completely. In a display of “old school” pork barrel politics he has rained money and jobs onto Red States and Swing States.
Biden has done everything possible to make it look like America is a normally functioning democracy and that we are still the GREAT POWER in the world. The axis that the world rotates around, the voice “that matters” at the negotiating table.
Biden has been hoping to “eke out” an electoral victory in 2024. One based on his basic competence, a flourishing economy, and an appeal to everyone’s nostalgia for American “unity”. The calculation has clearly been, that by being “not Trump”. Biden could mobilize the Democratic turnout he got in 2020 and once again pull out a “win”.
That way, even if the Democrats didn’t control the House or Senate, they would be able to block the Trumpublicans from gaining any further power and “wait them out”.
This Election Cycle is the “high tide” of Trumpublican America. It is the “Last Stand” of White Racist Power in American politics at the Presidential Level.
By 2028 the demographic “tide” will be in the Democrats favor. By 2040, the Democrats could control a 2/3rds majority in both the House and the Senate.
Biden clearly hoped to project strength abroad and to “win over” enough white voters in key swing states to win reelection this year. This strategy reflects his political instincts and experience.
IT’S NOT CLEAR WHO IS GOING TO BE “IN CHARGE” AFTER NOVEMBER 6TH.
Leader of the pro-Trump Project 2025 suggests there will be a new American Revolution
Kevin Roberts said the revolution will be bloodless “if the left allows it to be.”
Empires are “paradigms” as much as anything. Everyone BELIEVES in them, and that belief makes them the “law of the land”. Until there’s a PARADIGM SHIFT.
In geopolitics, “paradigm shifts” usually represent “regime changes”.
The Age of US dominance may be coming to an end.
The US is in “trouble”.
It didn’t have to be this way, but the tide of history is now swinging against us.
Sometimes in History there are “moments” when the World suddenly changes. Sarajevo 1914 was one of those moments. The Old Order of the 19th Century died in that moment and the 20th Century was born.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03 — March 1st, 2022
We are having a Sarajevo moment, In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.
See the graph above, that’s what a “Climate Crisis” looks like.
That graph records the Earth’s albedo declining over the last 20 years. Not a lot, just about 0.7W/m2 (Watts per square meter). That’s the equivalent of a panel with 200 light bulbs on it, having one go out and one get dimmer. It doesn’t sound like much.
Except that the sum effect of all of our GHG forcings during that period was about +0.6W/m2. The decline in the planetary albedo by 2023 resulted in an additional +1.2W/m2 on top of the GHG forcing.
Between 1876 and 1902, 60–80 million people died from starvation globally, or about 6–8% of the world’s population. There were provinces in China where over 90% of the population died because people collapsed of hunger and thirst before they could walk out of the affected area.
Now imagine it happening in 2048, but instead of affecting 60 million people it affects 400 million (more than the current population of the US). Instead of these people dying “in place” because they have no mode of transport other than their feet. They have access to cars, trucks, trains, planes, and boats.
The scale of the coming disruption is beyond real understanding. Nothing like it has ever happened before and no one knows how it’s going to play out. There simply is no way of knowing how the world is going to handle this crisis until it happens.
Now imagine it happening in 2025.
The odds of massive crop failures in the US in the next four years are probably as high as 65% at this point. About 50% of the US agricultural area is already in drought conditions. The soils are dry, and the water table levels have been dropping for decades.
As the United States and the European Union have become wary of China, Beijing’s leaders have decided that their best geopolitical prospects lie in marrying their vast industrial might with Russia’s formidable natural resources.
Including wheat from the fields of Ukraine.
Ukraine is one of the breadbasket regions of the planet, combined with Russia they generate 1/3rd of the world’s wheat supply.
When I said that we are having a “Sarajevo Moment” I didn’t mean in the 1990’s “Siege of Sarajevo” sense. I meant the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, during a state visit to Sarajevo on 28 June 1914. It is traditionally regarded as the immediate catalyst for the First World War.
It signals a massive break in the world order that has endured since 1945.
Pundits, who for the most part know shit about what’s happening with the climate system, are baffled by Putin’s actions. No one can understand why he would take such an existential risk for no obvious reason. They point out that the sanctions are going to cause the Russian economy to wither “in the coming years”.
This is absolutely true. Unless there is no “long term”.
THE CLIMATE CRISIS IS HERE. The US isn’t.
Thanks to Trump and White America, aka The Trumpublicans, we are seen abroad as unreliable, unstable, and on the verge of a constitutional crisis at a minimum.
Possibly even a civil war.
Everyone is sympathetic with Biden.
Everyone WANTS him to win.
Everyone is afraid of what’s going to happen if Trump wins in November.
BUT.
No one wants to deal seriously with us right now. Do you blame them?
It’s not clear who is going to be in power after the elections this Fall.
Right now, it looks to the world as if we are having a “Cold Civil War”. The Democrats hold the Capitol, but aren’t strong enough to do anything other than keep the lights on. The Trumpublicans are running a “shadow government in exile” from Mar-a-Largo.
The Trumpublicans are very open that they are “keeping a list” and that cooperating with the Democrats will have consequences.
“There will be severe consequences when we get back into power”.
Kevin McCarthy speaking about Twitter and Facebook banning Trump.
Trump is already trying to intimidate people by threatening retaliation against them if he wins reelection and they hadn't “contributed” to his campaign.
Everyone is “holding their breath” now, until November.
Everyone is afraid of what's coming.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc 071624
Up until now I thought Trump was a "straw man" you know, people need an opposition leader, so they give us one, all the while thinking "We control this guy just as much as the the other guy"
Not so much anymore. This looks just like a classic CIA run operation. Use a lone wolf crazy, just make sure he gets the shot off. "Do we have the ladder up yet?" "Has anybody done a range find so we can get his rifle sighted in properly?"
There is no way this was all from a single 20 year-old kid that beat the Secret Service just by luck. Powerful people expected Trump to be killed that day.
I used to think I had a handle on what was going on. Not any more. No.
They have a "Plan B" you can bet on that, but what's it going to be? This is getting really scary now . . .
In empires "domestic" politics in the imperial core is driven by events in the periphery, where the empire pilfers its ill-gotten gains. I do not buy your sanguine vision of a competent Biden dealt a "bad hand" or whatever. He's not competent. He's been a disaster for the empire, as the war in Ukraine demonstrates. The war is going very bad. Ukraine is going to lose.
And it was not inevitable that the war occur. Indeed, a Russo-Ukrainian conflict would almost certainly be disadvantageous to America's empire, as per Obama the Russians have escalation dominance in this part of the world. Putin, ever cautious, was eager to make a satisfactory arrangement (a neutral Ukraine on the Austrian model would have sufficed). Biden, run by neoconservative hawks like Victoria Nuland, lacked the wherewithal to control his administration's more ravenous and bestial elements. In other words: Biden's weakness did him in.
Now the empire is in damage control, with fires to put out simultaneously in the Pacific, the Middle East, and in Eastern Europe. It's come time to cut off a gangrenous limb before the infection gets to the heart, and I think it's gotta be Ukraine. Biden's too doddering to man the saw, but Trump will do just fine. He's signaled very clearly to the imperial mandarins that the Ukraine hawks will be out while the China hawks and the Zionists will get their druthers.
Other than the shrinking of America's imperial frontier and the not-inconsiderable economic consequences thereof, I don't think much will change. Under Trump, the US will continue its aggressive policy toward China and Iran/Hamas/Lebanon, the same policy Biden's been pursuing. Domestically, things will chug along toward collapse but perhaps a bit more slowly by saving resources that would otherwise be wasted getting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians needlessly killed.