The Crisis Report - 72
Sea Surface Temperatures still haven’t dropped below 2023 levels.
As you might expect. This is NOT “Good News”.
Let's review how we got here. Because you need CONTEXT to understand how badly “OFF” the mainstream news is on this issue. There is a LOT of “minimization” of the “crisis” going on. There is a LOT of “normalization” of what’s happened going on. There is a LOT of outright DENIAL going on.
Things are about to get DIRE and you need to decide who the “trusted voice” that you rely on for news about the Climate Crisis is going to be. So, lets review the last two years.
Let's go back to May of 2022.
I wrote this.
The UN has confirmed that we are about to get a massive temperature spike.
Now, you probably don’t remember it but in May of 2022 the UN forecast the El’ Nino we just went through. Here's what they said then.
In May 2022, the UN forecast that there was a 50/50 chance of breaking the +1.5C “redline” over the next five years.
You probably don’t remember it. This bit of news got swallowed up by the Ukraine War news and the US midterm election coverage. It really happened though. Here’s the articles from May of 2022.
In May 2022, the UN WMO issued a statement, warning that there was a 50/50 chance of +0.4C warming over the next 4 years. They stated that this warming would breech +1.5C, but that this level of warming would be “temporary”.
Earth Stands ‘50:50’ Chance Of Passing 1.5 Degrees Warming Within 5 Years — Forbes
Fifty-fifty chance’ global warming hits 1.5°C by 2026, warn scientists — Euronews
There’s a 50:50 chance the planet will pass the 1.5C warming threshold in the next 5 years — CNN
As 1.5C overshoot looms, a high-level commission will ask: what next? — Climate Home News
World has 50–50 chance of hitting 1.5C mark soon: U.N. — Frontline India
Forecasters also say there’s a 93 per cent chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record.
When will the world reach 1.5C of global heating? — The Guardian
With 1.5C of heating now all but inevitable, scientists say the focus must turn to mitigation measures.
Here’s what I wrote in May 2022, upon reading that statement.
When the IPCC says that there is a 50% chance the GMT will “temporarily” exceed 1.5℃ of warming by 2026, what exactly, do they mean by that?
Because in 2021 the Global Mean Temperature was at +1.1℃ of warming. Climbing to +1.5℃ by 2026 means.
THEY ARE FORECASTING 0.4C OF WARMING IN JUST 4 YEARS! Almost half a degree of warming in just 4 years!
That was May 2022.
SURPRISE, the MONSTER EL Nino that they said had a 50/50 chance of happening. It happened.
In 2022, when the WMO told us the odds of this happening were ‘50/50’, that was ‘spin’. The UN didn’t want to start a global panic and make food prices, already under stress because of the Ukraine War, go crazy.
The UN, and most of the world’s governments are already in “crisis mode” and they are already “managing” the flow of information they think “we the people” need to have.
THEY DON’T WANT US TO PANIC.
This reaction is called “elite panic”.
The term elite panic refers to the counterproductive actions that government officials and Elites commit out of fear that the general public will overreact to a disaster.
Rebecca Solnit writes about elite panic in her book, Paradise Built in Hell. As she explains, it was Rutgers professors Caron Chess and Lee Clarke who originally developed the term. As they told Solnit,
“It’s the elites that we see panicking…about the possibility that we will panic. It’s a very paternalist orientation to governance. It’s how you might treat a child.”
As James Meigs writes in this excellent piece.
Elite Panic vs. the Resilient Populace
The lessons of a forgotten American disaster.
“When authorities believe their own citizens will become dangerous, they begin to focus on controlling the public, rather than on addressing the disaster itself.”
“They clamp down on information, restrict freedom of movement, and devote unnecessary energy to enforcing laws they assume are about to be broken. These strategies don’t just waste resources, one study notes; they also “undermine the public’s capacity for resilient behaviors.’”
“As in war, the first casualty in disasters is often the truth. One symptom of elite panic is the belief that too much information, or the wrong kind of information, will send citizens reeling.”
“Elite panic frequently brings out another unsavory quirk on the part of some authorities: a tendency to believe the worst about their own citizens.”
“In the midst of the Hurricane Katrina crisis in 2005, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin found time to go on Oprah Winfrey’s show and lament “hooligans killing people, raping people” in the Superdome. Public officials and the media credulously repeated rumors about street violence, snipers shooting at helicopters, and hundreds of bodies piled in the Superdome.”
“These all turned out to be wild exaggerations or falsehoods AMPED UP by racism.”
“The stories had an impact: Away from the media’s cameras, a massive rescue effort — made up of freelance volunteers, Coast Guard helicopters, and other first responders — was underway across the city. But city officials, fearing attacks on the rescuers, frequently delayed these operations. They ordered that precious space in boats and helicopters be reserved for armed escorts.”
“Disaster literature bulges with examples…in which officials suppressed information, or passed along misinformation, out of concern over an unruly populace. Too often, the need to “avoid panic” serves as a retroactive justification for all manner of official missteps.”
“In late March 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic was climbing toward its crest in New York City, Mayor Bill De Blasio appeared on CNN’s State of the Union to defend his record. Host Jake Tapper pressed the mayor on his many statements — as recently as two weeks earlier — urging New Yorkers to “go about their lives.”
“Tapper asked whether those statements were “at least in part to blame for how the virus has spread across the city.”
“De Blasio didn’t give an inch.”
“Everybody was working with the information we had,” he explained, “and trying, of course, to avoid panic.”
“How advising people to avoid bars and Broadway shows would have been tantamount to panic was left unexplained.”
SO.
As late as January 2023, NOAA was “downplaying” the odds of an El Nino developing that year.
Think about how warm the winter of 2022 was. Think about how HOT the oceans were. Does this forecast make any sense to anyone, in hindsight?
Particularly when the European and Chinese models were showing that a HUGE El Nino was developing and that it would manifest in 2023.
The Europeans think we are going to have an El Nino. They aren’t sure about how bad it’s going to be. — Nov 2022
Short Takes — 07 — Richard Crim, Medium, January 20, 2023.
Enjoy today. The rest of the year, the forecast is for HEAT.
Here's what I forecast last January.
“The upper blue circle is where Hansen and the less optimistic forecasters are predicting how hot next November will be. The two forecasts at the top are where I think it will be.”
“This winter (22') has been freakishly mild.”
How a ‘totally insane’ warm spell is upending winter around the world WAPO 01052022
“NEXT WINTER COULD FEEL LIKE LAST JULY.”
“I’m going to talk about that in my next Crisis Report and Living in Bomb Time articles. In a rational world these forecasts would be headline reporting and there would be emergency global meetings being held to organize a response.”
“My guess is you didn’t even know the La Nina was fading. Or that the rest of this year it’s probably going to get hotter than it has for the last FIVE MILLION YEARS.”
It’s pretty obvious now, that there was a better than “50/50” chance of this happening.
The UN suspected, “pretty strongly” that the CATASTROPHE that’s about to happen was coming. The UN Secretary General has been screaming about it for the last two years, in a series of increasingly dire speeches.
The Crisis Report — 14 — Richard Crim, Medium, February 2023.
It’s not “crazy” to think that people who have privileged access to information will generally not tell you everything they know.
Mr. Guterres warned the Security Council that, under any temperature rise scenario, countries from Bangladesh to China, India and the Netherlands will all be at risk.
Mega-cities on every continent will face serious impacts, including Lagos, Bangkok, Mumbai, Shanghai, London, Buenos Aires and New York.
The danger is especially acute for some 900 million people living in coastal zones at low elevations
–one out of every ten people on earth.
Sea level rise poses ‘unthinkable’ risks for the planet, Security Council hears — UN 021423
UN chief says rising seas a ‘death sentence’ for some countries — Aljazeera 021523
UN secretary general warns that low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear under rising sea levels.
UN secretary-general warns of impact of sea level rise, could cause ‘mass exodus’ of populations — ABC News 021523
Since 1993, the rate at which sea levels are rising has doubled.
Rising seas risk climate migration on ‘biblical scale,’ says U.N. chief — WAPO 021523
UN Security Council holds first-ever debate on sea level rise from climate change — FOXWeather.com 021523
Officials from the United Nations and other international organizations convened to discuss the legal, economic and social impacts of climate change.
The FOX reporting on this is really interesting. Here are selections from the article.
Here’s what Secretary General Guterres ACTUALLY STATED.
He cited information from WMO reports showing the acceleration of global average sea level rise.
“Global average sea levels have risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in the last 3,000 years. The global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than at any time in the past 11,000 years.”
“Meanwhile, the WMO tells us that even if global heating is miraculously limited to 1.5 degrees, there will still be a sizeable sea level rise.”
The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993. It has risen by nearly 10 mm since January 2020 to a new record high in 2022, according to WMO’s provisional State of the Global Climate in 2022 report.
The past two and a half years alone account for 10 percent of the overall rise in sea level since satellite measurements started nearly 30 years ago.
Mr. Guterres warned the Security Council that, under any temperature rise scenario, countries from Bangladesh to China, India and the Netherlands will all be at risk. Mega-cities on every continent will face serious impacts. The danger is especially acute for some 900 million people living in coastal zones at low elevations –one out of every ten people on earth.
Here’s how FOXWeather reported that.
Guterras (they misspell his name) cited the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which stated that global average sea levels have risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in the last 3,000 years.
According to the WMO, the rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993, with a 10 millimeter (0.4 inch) increase since January 2020 to a new record high in 2022.
“Although this is still measured in terms of millimetres per year, it adds up to half to 1 meter (1.6 to 3.1 feet) per century and that is a long-term and major threat to many millions of coastal dwellers and low-lying states,” the WMO said.
FOXWeather makes it sound like sea level rise will probably be about another foot by 2100.
Here’s what NOAA (the MOST conservative estimate possible) stated that same day.
U.S. coastline to see up to a foot of sea level rise by 2050 NOAA 021522
Report projects a century of sea level rise in 30 years.
Here’s a study from Greenland last year that indicates it may cause 2–3 feet of sea level rise by 2050.
The Greenland glaciers are 5,000 feet thick on average, about one mile. Water, falling through the glacier for that mile picks up speed. Speed plus friction makes heat. Falling water also has kinetic energy. That energy also becomes heat.
The study found that.
“The ice sheet covering Greenland is melting rapidly at its base and is injecting far more water and ice into the ocean than previously understood, which could have serious ramifications for global sea level rise.
“Unprecedented” rates of melting have been observed at the bottom of the ice sheet, caused by huge quantities of meltwater falling down from the surface, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
As the meltwater falls, its gravitational potential energy is converted to kinetic energy, which ultimately warms the water as it pools at the base of the ice sheet. In that process, the study found that the Greenland ice sheet produces more energy than the world’s 10 largest hydroelectric dams combined.
“However, the heat generated by the falling water is not used to generate electricity. Instead, it melts the ice” stated Poul Christoffersen, a Cambridge University senior scientist who took part in the study.
FOX NEWS says +1.5 feet of Sea Level Rise by 2100.
NOAA says +1 foot of SLR by 2050.
Greenland indicates +2 to +3 feet of SLR by 2050.
WHERE YOU GET YOUR INFORMATION MATTERS. A LOT.
Because this isn’t OVER.
Temperatures WILL RISE until the EEI declines and a new balance is restored.
Hansen thinks the current Rate of Warming is about +0.45C per decade. It could be a little higher. We will know more in about 12 to 18 months.
A Rate of Warming of +0.45C means +2C by 2030.
+3C by 2050.
+4C by 2070.
+5C by 2090.
Until the EEI is in “balance” again.
Which at the CO2e level of 530ppm that Hansen calculated in one of his recent papers. Means about +5C to +6C in the paleoclimate record.
NOW.
If you think this sounds like “Alarmist” bullshit designed to SCARE you. Consider what the BANKS are saying in their forecasts.
The Bank of England warned in its 2021 climate survey that, in a scenario of governments failing to act on climate and global warming reaching 3.3C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, about 7 per cent of UK households currently covered would be forced to go without insurance due to unavailability or expense.
OMG the myopic focus is astonishing.
They think Global Warming under a Business as Usual (BaU) scenario could reach +3.3C BY 2050 and they are concerned about HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE.
How about MASS FAMINES?
While the public argues over whether or not global warming is even real, the big players already have a good idea of what’s going to happen, and are preparing accordingly.
BTW-
Unavailability or expense of insurance is a euphemism for an area being uninhabitable.
7% of households in the UK is roughly 2,000,000 households. That’s roughly 4.8 million people being forced to migrate due to climate change because the area they live in has become uninhabitable, by 2050. In the UK alone.
Now think about Florida and its 26 Million people.
Climate change is making homes uninsurable. How is your state affected?
Property insurance is becoming a canary in the coalmine for climate risk, so we’re mapping insurance withdrawals by…www.reliance.school
As insurance companies adjust their risk models to account for climate change, premiums have risen an average of 21% across the nation. This map shows approximate rate increases for property insurance since 2015.
The affordability crisis has society-wide impacts, from where people choose to live to where they decide to retire. Growing costs are “having effects on the valuation of properties, the stability of markets, it’s having all these downstream implications,” says Steve Bowen, chief science officer at reinsurance broker Gallagher Re.
“There are discussions now about where people are going to retire. Is there [still] going to be a Florida in a few more years?”
Hurricanes threaten to stir perfect economic storm - Reuters May 1st 2024
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Storms later this year might just blow down an important line of defense for U.S. homeowners. Warmer ocean surfaces and weaker trade-wind patterns are setting the stage for an especially fierce hurricane season. Two states already are propping up their insurance industries. A wave of insolvencies would be problematic, but not as much as unaffordable premiums and declining property values.
Think about FOOD.
Growing wheat is getting harder in a hotter world: study — The Hill 06/02/2023
Two of the world’s major wheat-growing regions are skating on the ragged edge of a catastrophic failure.
Since 1981, wheat-withering heat waves have become 16 times more common in the Midwest, according to a study published Friday in the journal NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science.
Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China.
That means a crop-destroying temperature spike that might have come to the Midwest once in a century in 1981 will now visit the region approximately every 6 years, the study has found. In China, such frequency has risen to every 16 years.
Wheat is the main food grain produced in the United States. These findings are a sign that farmers need to be prepared for a future that is markedly more disrupted than the past, the authors wrote.
“The historical record is no longer a good representation of what we can expect for the future. We live in a changed climate and people are underestimating current day possibilities for extreme events,” — Coughlan de Perez Tufts University
We are “in crisis” right now and it’s about to get HOTTER.
You need to decide. Who are you going to believe, who are you going to listen to. Who are your “trusted voices” going to be?
These next few years are going to be REALLY BAD, and if you make a poor choice it’s going to have consequences.
Choose wisely.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc — 050224
ADDENDUM:
My interview with Max Rottersman on YT is now up. We talked for several hours and Max did a GREAT job of editing it down to 54 minutes.
If you want to listen to me talk about the Climate System and the current Climate Crisis. Here’s the link.
youtube.com/watch?v=N9JB3LTXdJ4
Be sure to thank Max for his hard work in the comments section. He makes me look good.
FYI- I am available for interviews if you have a YT program and want to talk about Climate Science, Climate Change, the Climate Crisis, or Collapse.
Personal Notes:
I will pick up the “Moment in History” series again in my next article. There is so much going on it can be overwhelming but patterns are emerging.
The real reason nobody of any media stature is pounding the table about sea level and the related issues is its too big to do anything about it. Bangladesh? They are all going to die, so we need to automate textile production. We need to get headquarters out of NYC not try to save it. Those fools in Miami are still paying top dollar for real estate. So sell it to them, don't warn them.
I'm keeping my stock portfolio because I see corporate America is seeing very clearly what's coming. Top CEO's are taking active measures to protect corporate profits. There are still giant profits to be made by guessing right into the apocalypse.
Look at what SmartMoney is doing, don't listen to politicians. Smart money is already positioned for what's coming. And I don't mean billionaire bunkers, those are just distractions. Smart mone already owns the water rights for soon to be desert real estate. These guys are ready. They don't care about you.
We’re in truly scary times. Forgive me if this has been brought up before, but your note about the elites riding this out made me think about nextgen AI being released soon. It will allow elites to maintain operation and profit with significantly fewer people. I work in tech and our mandate is to “automate” as much as we possibly can. Leadership is pushing AI and telling us to do more with less. Rounds of massive layoffs. It’s wild.