The Crisis Report - 67
The Climate System is going INSANE right now. You would think more people would be paying attention.
Because we are literally on the “Brink of the Abyss”.
Start with this, 2023 was the HOTTEST year, by far, in “at least” the last 125,000 years
See How 2023 Shattered Records to Become the Hottest Year - NYT 01/09/2024
Month after month global temperatures didn’t just break records, they surpassed them by far.
This was reported a number of ways.
Here’s what Europe had to say.
Copernicus: 2023 is the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit
Global surface air temperature highlights:
2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850
2023 had a global average temperature of 14.98°C, 0.17°C higher than the previous highest annual value in 2016
2023 was 0.60°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 1.48°C warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level
It is likely that a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level
2023 marks the first time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. Close to 50% of days were more than 1.5°C warmer then the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2°C warmer.
Annual average air temperatures were the warmest on record, or close to the warmest, over sizeable parts of all ocean basins and all continents except Australia
Each month from June to December in 2023 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous year
July and August 2023 were the warmest two months on record. Boreal summer (June-August) was also the warmest season on record
September 2023 was the month with a temperature deviation above the 1991–2020 average larger than any month in the ERA5 dataset
December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.78°C above the 1850-1900 level for the month. You can access information specific for December 2023 in our monthly bulletin
That was Europe. Here’s how NASA/GISS saw it.
NASA Analysis Confirms 2023 as Warmest Year on Record - Goddard Institute for Space Studies 01/12/2024
Did you notice a couple of points in the caption of this graphic, like this one?
“This map of Earth in 2023 shows global surface temperature anomalies, or how much warmer or cooler each region of the planet was compared to the average from 1951 to 1980.”
So, they aren/t showing you warming since 1850. The accepted baseline for the “preindustrial period”. What they are showing you is warming above the 1951 to 1980 average temperature. This makes a big difference in the number “on the screen”.
December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.78°C above the 1850-1900 level for the month. - Copernicus
About -0.9C difference according to the Europeans.
“An animated version of this map shows global temperature anomalies changing over time, dating back to 1880.”
Wait, wasn’t 1880 the HOTTEST year of the 19th Century?
Why yes, yes it was.
But hey, what/s a couple of decades when it comes to Global Warming?
Why is GISS doing this?
Climate Report: Part Two: How much has the Earth warmed up since the “preindustrial” period?Surprisingly it’s hard to get a straightforward answer to that question.
By using 1880 as your “late 19th century” baseline, you reduce the amount of global warming by roughly 0.6℃ or about 30%. It goes from a “crisis level” of 1.8℃ that requires immediate large-scale reductions of fossil fuel use, to a “concerning level” of 1.2℃ that makes “the goal of 1.5℃” difficult, but not impossible, to achieve.
Using 1880 as your baseline and then claiming that that there has been only 1.2℃ of warming “since the preindustrial” era is what analysts call a “true lie”. While it is factually true, it is so misleading and deceptive as to be a lie. Since most people have no context for judging the accuracy of that number, they are likely to accept it uncritically.
As an analyst, I am appalled and saddened that GISS, and NOAA are promoting the narrative that global warming is 1.2℃. As a realist, I understand the dynamics of that decision.
If you were unaware that the baseline for measuring “climate sensitivity” had shifted from 1850 to 1880 that’s because it hasn’t. The last major study published in 2020 (An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence) continued to use 1850 and a CO2 level of 280ppm as the baseline for projecting the warming effect of doubling atmospheric CO2 to a level of 560ppm. All of the models done since the 70’s use 1850 as the starting point for measuring the effects of increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
For decades 1850 was the starting point for measuring the total impact of global warming. When and why did it shift to 1880 or, to use the nebulous GISS term, the “late 19th century”?
It will probably not surprise you that it happened during the Trump years, in late 2017.
The more interesting question is how this shift was justified, given that everyone involved understood that it would result in a lower number for the total amount of global warming that has occurred.
This is hard to puzzle out because the GISS never refers to this shift anywhere.
Deconstructed, their position is that the global temperature has increased 1.2℃ since the “late 19th century” and they have all sorts of studies, data, and analysis that proves it.
Since they never directly say that “late 19th century” means 1880, you must glean that from the graphics. Which, since they don’t show the entire 19th century, do not make clear that 1880 was the hottest year of the entire 19th century.
Still, they are not lying. If you start in 1880, the world has warmed up 1.2℃, the science on that is clear. That wasn’t the question though. The question was, why the switch from 1850 to 1880 as the baseline? That question they never answer.
One answer for this “policy change” comes surprisingly from an article in Forbes; “Exactly How Much Has the Earth Warmed? And Does It Matter?” published September 2018. I encourage you to read it. Written by a University of Houston Energy Fellow it is the climate equivalent of the post 2000 election, “you need to just move on” statement. The basic argument deconstructs as follows:
Both sides are biased — Those making the argument for a higher number claim it is important because it shows we are already closer to the targets of 1.5° and 2.0° above preindustrial temperatures established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and therefore greater cuts in future carbon emissions are necessary. Those supporting the lower figure believe the 1.5° target can be met with less stringent reductions.
1850 was an arbitrary choice — The debate exists in part because the UNFCCC did not define preindustrial when setting the targets. What does “preindustrial” mean anyway? You can make an argument that it should be 1740, or 1820, or 1880. Each of these dates shifts the goalposts. We should pick a date all of us can agree on.
Many people don’t agree with 1850 — There was no “worldwide” network of weather stations in 1850. So, the temperature measurements from 1850–1880 are uneven in both number and quality. Attempts to “fix” the data are always going to be biased and using it typically adds 0.4℃-0.6℃ to the amount of global warming that has occurred. We cannot move forward until we have a starting point that everyone agrees with and “many people” will never agree with 1850.
An exact value doesn’t matter — Although there are some out-of-the-mainstream views to the contrary, there is strong evidence the Earth has warmed about 1° C since pre-industrial times. Uncertainties in the data and lack of agreement on a reference date make it impossible to give a precise value.
1880 is a baseline we can all agree on — By 1880, a global network of weather stations using standardized equipment had been established. This makes it the most logical baseline for measuring global warming from CO2. Which, we can then agree, is 1.2℃. It’s unfortunate that 1880 was the hottest year of the 19th century but that’s the year we started getting solid measurements. Being able to agree on the data and stop arguing about it is the most important thing at this point.
We need to work together, using 1880 lets us do that — This shift is actually good for those who subscribe to the belief that fossil fuels are the primary or sole cause of this warming. If you really believe that it is urgent to reduce fossil fuel usage, then you understand how important that it is to stop fighting each other over a “few tenths of a degree that no one cares about” and start doing the real work of making that happen. Not agreeing with 1880 as the baseline makes you part of the problem at this point.
Now image it’s 2017, the Trumpublicans have come to power, and you are the head of GISS. What’s your “Prime Directive”?
Preserving the organization is your prime concern.
You do not want to be the director who gets the organization defunded and disbanded. If your organization collapses on “your watch” you are a failure. Credibility can be regained, if you get defunded there’s no coming back.
You do what it takes to keep your organization alive, to ensure organizational continuity. That’s a director’s job, their real mission statement.
Agreeing on 1880 as a baseline date and setting global warming at 1.2℃ can be seen as a compromise. Some people wanted it higher; some people wanted it lower. You can look at this as “splitting the difference”.
Elections have consequences.
The Trumpublican win in 2016 gave them the power to set the baseline year for measuring global warming and by doing so, set the number for the amount of global warming, “since the late 19th century”.
If you thought it would be more “science based” you are being naïve. Science is done by people and is funded by even more people. People are social, political creatures.
There is always a political component in science just like everything else. The Climate Deniers and Climate Action Resistors in the Trumpublican party took advantage of their power to force the Climate Change narrative into something that “low-balled” the amount of warming that has occurred.
They used the credibility of the GISS to make sure it was accepted by the mainstream media.
The scientists who vehemently disagreed with this left the agency, like hundreds of others who resigned at dozens of other agencies during the Trump years.
Science ranks grow thin in Trump Administration
That’s what happens when scientific agencies get politicized. Some people get upset and quit rather than compromise their integrity.
However, politics is also about getting things done.
The argument that it’s more important to start taking action to decarbonize the US economy “right now”, rather than continuing to fight about it, is a powerful one. Doing something, even if it is inadequate, is better than continuing to do nothing. You can always “ramp up” in the future as the threat becomes more apparent.
So, if you are the director of GISS going along with this was not the worst thing in the world. The organization was preserved. They lived, “to fight another day” and everyone now has a number that they can accept and work with.
That’s how “global warming” was set at 1.2℃.
That’s the “backstory” you need to understand that graphic and this statement. Written by Roxana Bardan as the first paragraphs of their January 12, 2024 press release.
“Earth’s average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest on record, according to an analysis by NASA. Global temperatures last year were around 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above the average for NASA’s baseline period (1951-1980), scientists from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York reported.
See how much lower this is than what the EU reported.
“NASA and NOAA’s global temperature report confirms what billions of people around the world experienced last year; we are facing a climate crisis,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.
Way to say the obvious Bill.
“From extreme heat, to wildfires, to rising sea levels, we can see our Earth is changing. There’s still more work to be done, but President Biden and communities across America are taking more action than ever to reduce climate risks and help communities become more resilient – and NASA will continue to use our vantage point of space to bring critical climate data back down to Earth that is understandable and accessible for all people. NASA and the Biden-Harris Administration are working to protect our home planet and its people, for this generation – and the next.”
Meaningless drivel and a toadying ‘suck up’ to Biden and Harris.
In 2023, hundreds of millions of people around the world experienced extreme heat, and each month from June through December set a global record for the respective month. July was the hottest month ever recorded. Overall, Earth was about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.4 degrees Celsius) warmer in 2023 than the late 19th-century average, when modern record-keeping began.
Notice the jump from +1.2C to +1.4C higher “than the late 19th-century average, when modern record-keeping began”. Where did we hear those words before?
AND that’s about ALL they say in that article.
Do you REALLY think Gavin Schmidt, Director of GISS, is telling you what’s ACTUALLY happening. Or is he telling you what’s POLITICALLY expedient to say, given that no one knows who’s going to be “in power” next year.
Here’s what NOAA reported.
2023 was the warmest year in the modern temperature record
By NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 01/17/2024
The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F).
See the subtle ‘refer to 1850’ but how they state warming in terms of ‘the 20th-century average’.
This value is 0.15°C (0.27°F) more than the previous record set in 2016.
See, we aren't that much warmer than 2016, and that was 8 years ago. This is not that big a deal.
The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023).
Oh, you mean THE LAST 10 YEARS.
Of note, the year 2005, which was the first year to set a new global temperature record in the 21st century, is now the 12th-warmest year on record. The year 2010, which had surpassed 2005 at the time, now ranks as the 11th-warmest year on record.
This map shows 2023 temperatures compared to the 1991-2020 average.
How many baselines can we compare against in one graphic?
Most of the globe was warmer-than-average (red). Only a few areas were colder than average (blue).
OMG the quality of the analysis is STUNNING.
The animated bar graph shows yearly average temperature since 1976 compared to the 20th-century average. It's been 47 years—nearly half a century—since Earth's temperature was colder than average.
2023 set a new warmest-year record by a wide margin.
Unlike the previous two years (2021 and 2022), which were squarely entrenched in a cold phase El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, also known as La Niña, 2023 quickly moved into ENSO neutral territory, transitioning to a warm phase episode, El Niño, by June.
ENSO not only affects global weather patterns, but it also affects global temperatures. As seen in the image, during the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño), global temperatures tend to be warmer than ENSO-neutral or La Niña years, while global temperatures tend to be slightly cooler during cold phase ENSO episodes (La Niña).
Impressive “technobabble” that says nothing but the obvious.
Despite 2021 and 2022 not ranking among the five warmest years on record, the global annual temperature increased at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade since 1850 and more than three times that rate (0.20°C / 0.36°F) since 1982.
Hmmm….that’s +1.02C since 1850 and +0.8C since 1982. These are very ‘lowball” numbers and kinda tell you how much you can trust what NOAA is saying these days.
AND that’s about ALL they say in that article.
Here’s what the Chinese press reported.
2023 was warmest year on record in China
By LI HONGYANG | China Daily | Updated: 01/10/2024
A climate change monitoring report from the National Climate Center said on Monday that 2023 was the warmest year on record since meteorological records began, surpassing the previous global temperature record.
OK.
The global average temperature for 2023 exceeded the 2016 high by 0.14 C.
This is what everyone says.
The report added that the global surface average temperature in 2023 was 1.42 C higher than preindustrial levels from 1850 to 1900, and 0.53 C higher than the average from 1991 to 2020.
This agrees with GISS and is about +0.4C higher than NOAA. Lower than the EU numbers though.
The latest predictions from the National Climate Center indicate that the ongoing moderate El Nino event will persist until spring, affecting global surface temperatures.
Interesting, they say it will persist until spring. They DON’T say that temperatures will decline. They “imply” it, they don/t “say” it. I think they don/t know what’s about to happen either.
In China, the average temperature in 2023 reached a historical high, surpassing the 1991 to 2020 average by 0.81 C.
Here’s what China’s SCIENCE institutes had to say about 2023.
From the recent paper.
New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023
Original Paper, Open access, Published: 11 January 2024
ABSTRACT:
“The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.”
In 2023, the sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached record highs. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10^21 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data); 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data).
The Tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans recorded their highest Ocean Heat Content (OHC) observed since the 1950s.
Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño, the global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of +0.23°C higher than 2022 and an astounding > 0.3°C above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.
The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.
There is something REALLY IMPORTANT here that you NEED to NOTICE.
Did you notice the BIG difference between the “American” data and, basically, the rest of the WORLD.
Here are the TWO main “camps” in Climate Science expressing HOW MUCH “heat energy” they think was added to the Oceans in 2023.
15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10^21 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data)
9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data) — NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCEI
The DIFFERENCE between these two numbers is SIGNIFICANT. The AMERICAN “estimate” is about -40% LOWER than the Chinese and Europeans.
That was 2023. Now look at 2024 again.
We are now hitting +2C temperatures on a sustained basis.
If we don’t see a BIG DROP off in the SST numbers in the next few weeks. Things will get REALLY BAD by the end of the year.
This is what EVERYONE is hoping will happen.
See how 2016 surged up in January, February, and March and then dropped sharply in April, May, and into June.
That’s our BEST CASE.
Hansen was forecasting this.
And the Moderates dismissed him as a “Doomer”.
But, Hansen thought the El Nino would PEAK around +1.7C and then “drop back” to somewhere between +1.5C and +1.6C.
If we have PEAKED, it’s around +2C, which is actually what I predicted.
The Crisis Report — 02 - May 15, 2022
The UN has confirmed that we are about to get a massive temperature spike. Now, the only question is “how hot is it going to get”?
Here’s my prediction.
The first big “Climate Shock” is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3–5 years.
It’s a 3 part storm:
1. Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It’s simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021
2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
Heat in World’s Oceans More Than Ever Recorded.
Hottest ocean temperatures in history recorded last year.
3. Warming that was being masked by SOx emissions will rapidly take place due to the changes in diesel fuels in the shipping industry in 2020.
Cleaner Air in 2020: 0.5% sulfur cap for ships enters into force worldwide.
I think, that all of this will combine to push warming above 2C by 2026. I think, that the next 2–6 years are going to be insanely hot.
Let’s see,
The IPCC is forecasting warming of 0.4C by 2026. (+1.6C Peak)
James Hansen is forecasting 0.6C of warming by 2026. (+1.8 Peak)
I am forecasting 0.8C of warming by 2026. (+2.0 Peak)
We are all saying there is going to be warming. We are all saying part of that warming is going to be an El Nino (that’s what the IPCC is implying when they say the warming will be temporary). We are all saying that some of this warming is going to be caused by SOx getting washed out of the atmosphere.
We are all saying the same thing, we just disagree about how hot it’s going to get.
The IPCC, throughout it’s entire history, has always underestimated and understated the amount of warming that actually occurred. I would bet on warming being greater than the 0.4C they are forecasting.
If we just JUMPED to a +2C world.
This is where we will be going over the next 5-10 years.
SO.
THAT’S WHY you would think this chart would be THE MAIN TOPIC of the NIGHTLY NEWS.
Because we REALLY are on the FUCKING EDGE HERE.
We are “in crisis” right now and it’s about to get a lot hotter.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc — 041324
Personal Notes:
I don’t know anymore if anyone actually “wants” to hear this. It’s BLEAK news.
I myself, cannot “look away” at this point.
It’s like watching a slow motion train wreck, when you are strapped to the front of the train.
Yet, the world seems oblivious.
We will all know, SOON.
How much time we have left.
Enjoy today.
Thank you so much for all the time you put into these reports. Even if the mainstream media and government bodies see fit to muddy the water with their shifting baselines, it's reassuring to know that there's people like yourself who commit time each week to calling out their BS.
To your point that you would think this would be news . . . I've finally seen how controlled the news is. Any story that's "Breaking News" has to be pre-approved by whomever is in charge of the censorship. Think how much we don't know right now. We read about this event or that crisis, but how much gets hidden? We will find out after it's too late. I'm convinced that the powers that be are riding this thing into the ground and they don't want us to wake up until they are safe in their bunkers.