The Crisis Report - 66
Simply mind-boggling’: world record temperature jump in Antarctic raises fears of catastrophe.
In the Guardian on April 6th, Science editor Robin McKie wrote this.
“On 18 March, 2022, scientists at the Concordia research station on the east Antarctic plateau documented a remarkable event. They recorded the largest jump in temperature ever measured at a meteorological centre on Earth. According to their instruments, the region that day experienced a rise of 38.5C above its seasonal average: a world record.
This startling leap — in the coldest place on the planet — left polar researchers struggling for words to describe it. “It is simply mind-boggling,” said Prof Michael Meredith, science leader at the British Antarctic Survey.
“In sub-zero temperatures such a massive leap is tolerable but if we had a 40C rise in the UK now that would take temperatures for a spring day to over 50C — and that would be deadly for the population.”
This amazement was shared by glaciologist Prof Martin Siegert, of the University of Exeter. “No one in our community thought that anything like this could ever happen. It is extraordinary and a real concern,” he told the Observer. “We are now having to wrestle with something that is completely unprecedented.”
Poleward winds, which previously made few inroads into the atmosphere above Antarctica, are now carrying more and more warm, moist air from lower latitudes — including Australia — deep into the continent, say scientists, and these have been blamed for the dramatic polar “heatwave” that hit Concordia. Exactly why these currents are now able to plunge so deep into the continent’s air space is not yet clear, however.”
No one in our community thought that anything like this could ever happen.
We are now having to wrestle with something that is completely unprecedented.
Exactly why these currents are now able to plunge so deep into the continent’s air space is not yet clear, however.
Ummm….wrong.
This is only “mysterious” if the ONLY “Climate Science” you know is Moderate “Climate Science”. If you have been following the Alarmists this makes perfect sense.
Everyone should read this article simply because it’s “what’s wrong” with our current Climate Paradigm. Our current “mainstream” models of the Climate System cannot explain this warming. So, it’s viewed as a MYSTERY.
It/s NOT. It was predicted in 1998.
If you want to understand how COLLAPSE is going to unfold. You need to understand what/s happening here.
The Earth’s Climate System — A Short Users Guide. Part 03. The Role of Permafrost in the Climate System.
You NEED to understand this history because what’s happening now isn’t a MYSTERY.
The “Other Half” of Climate Science, the Alarmists, predicted it in 1998.
Here’s “what went wrong” in brief.
It starts in 1975. One year before Jimmy Carter wins the 76' Election.
1975 — MANABE and WETHERALD.
Manabe and Wetherald publish a seminal paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, entitled “The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model”.
They use a 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) to investigate for the first time the effects of doubling atmospheric CO2 levels. The results reveal, among other things, “disproportionate warming at the poles” (POLAR AMPLIFICATION) and a “significantly” increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle.
See the words “POLAR AMPLIFICATION” — that means global warming makes the Poles warm up MORE than the rest of the world. Potentially a LOT more. We have known about this since 1975.
Flash Forward to 1998
1998 — RIND
Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 103, NO. D6, PAGES 5943–5971, MARCH 27, 1998 by David Rind NASA\GISS.
The first sentence of this paper asks.
“How variable is the latitudinal temperature gradient with climate change?”
Then goes on to tell us that;
“This question is second in importance only to the question of overall climate sensitivity”
“Our current inability to answer it affects everything from understanding past climate variations, and paleoclimate proxies, to projections of regional effects of future greenhouse warming [Rind, 1995].”
This paper is a KEY piece of documentation in detailing the “moral collapse” of the Climate Moderates. This is when they started deliberately lying to themselves and by extension to us.
This paper is actually on par with the 1979 Woods Hole Climate Summit. It was a MAJOR effort in Climate Science at the time. What prompted it was the “crisis” over the fossil evidence emerging from the High Arctic.
ALLIGATORS IN THE ARCTIC
The narrative explaining the “hole in the heart” of our current Climate Paradigm starts with paleontology.
During the 90’s, paleontologists exploring the High Arctic (above 60N) found fossils of alligators and palm trees in Alaska. These fossils are clustered between 55–53mya in a period known as the PETM or “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum”.
55 million years ago, during the PETM, the High Arctic was a lot like Miami, with an average temperature of 74F degrees. Alligator ancestors and palm trees lived in Alaska on the shores of an Arctic Ocean, that NEVER froze. Even in Winter.
How giant tortoises, alligators thrived in High Arctic 50 million years ago.
— Science News Aug, 2010
“During the Early Eocene, Ellesmere Island, which is adjacent to Northern Greenland, probably was similar to swampy cypress forests in the southeastern United States today. Eocene fossil evidence collected there in recent decades by various teams indicate the lush landscape hosted giant tortoises, aquatic turtles, large snakes, alligators, flying lemurs, tapirs, and hippo-like and rhino-like mammals.”
These are “indisputable” FACTS.
These facts are built on “actual” fossils dug-up out of the ground, by paleontologists, over decades of research. They are not in dispute by anyone with a shred of scientific credibility because paleontology is a “hard science”. The evidence is literally “carved in stone”.
Alligators lived around an “ice free” Arctic Ocean 55mya that had a climate like modern day Miami, that’s a “hard fact”.
This is a HUGE problem for the Moderate Climate Paradigm. Because there is NO WAY to explain it using the current Climate Models.
Here’s WHY this is a problem for the current Climate Science “orthodoxy”.
In order for these fossils to exist, the High Arctic would have to have been about +35C warmer than our 1850 baseline.
How HOT does the Earth have to get, in order to warm up the Arctic by +35C?
How is that even possible?
In 1998, this was regarded as a “life or death” question.
Hence this extremely consequential paper.
In 1998, David Rind of NASA/GISS understood the implications of the fossil evidence. Alligators had lived in an “ice free” High Arctic 55mya and palm trees had grown in Northern Alaska. The fossil evidence was clear, and it cast serious doubts on the “Paradigm” of the Climate Science Moderates.
Because there was NO WAY that was possible using their models.
Those fossils indicated that the Arctic had been over +30C warmer during this period, and that the Arctic Ocean was “ice free” all year round.
The world wasn’t different enough 55 million years ago to make that kind of warming possible.
Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Europe, Siberia were all in their current locations and the Arctic Ocean basin had formed. The Solar constant, which gradually increases over time, was actually slightly LOWER then. So, LESS ENERGY would have been powering the Climate System during this period.
The High Arctic, should not have been able to WARM UP that much, based on our understanding of the Climate System in 1998.
So, either our understanding of the paleoclimate history had to be incomplete. Or, our understanding of the Climate System had to be deeply flawed.
That’s what led to this paper.
Latitudinal temperature gradients and climate change.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 103, NO. D6, PAGES 5943–5971, MARCH 27, 1998 by David Rind NASA\GISS.
Which, despite it’s innocuous title, represents a MAJOR effort in terms of Global Climate Model (GCM) computer runs and pulling together the available “science” at that time. This is NOT a trivial paper.
This paper is Rind, articulating the “Climate Science Orthodoxy” response to the “Arctic Fossil” problem.
Here are Rind’s thoughts from 1998 after using the best Climate Models of the time to simulate a variety of paleoclimate conditions.
“What do these (climate model) results imply about potential impacts of future climate change?”
“Again, one would have to overlay the climate change itself on any latitudinal temperature gradient change, recognizing that some of the latitudinal gradient effects may be overwhelmed”.
“The doubled CO2 simulation reported here (280ppm to 560ppm) showed little gradient change on the annual average at most latitudes”.
Rind then asks,
“Can we use the results from the paleoclimate analysis to suggest what is likely with increasing CO2?”
“The precise relevance of past to future climates has been extensively discussed [e.g., Webb and Wigley,1985; Mitchell, 1990; Crowley, 1990; Rind, 1993]; difficulties include the rapid nature of the projected future climate change, the different current climate background (land ice, continental configuration, ocean circulation), and questions concerning appropriate paleoclimate forcing. Given these ambiguities, any conclusion as to the effects of increased CO2 on the future latitudinal temperature gradient based on paleoclimates must be highly speculative.”
This is an EXTREMELY important statement and it’s easy to miss the significance of it.
This is a statement by NASA/GISS to the Climate Modeling “community”, that the use of paleoclimate data in assessing “the effects of increased CO2 on future” warming, would be regarded as “highly speculative”.
Rind is basically saying that paleoclimate and fossil evidence should not be considered in the Climate Models and even as part of Climate Science itself.
His argument is involved and has some merit. Because of plate tectonics the surface of the earth has changed greatly over time. These changes make it difficult to assess how much the temperature of the planet was affected by the CO2 level and how much it was affected by these other influences.
However, in the case of the PETM fossils this argument doesn’t really hold up. The earth wasn’t that different 55mya.
Rind is choosing to disregard the fossil evidence and HOPE that “future studies” will resolve the problem.
“An obvious goal (of future studies) would be to clarify gradient changes by improving the quality and geographic distribution of paleoclimate observations and the representation of physical processes, particularly convection, sea ice, and ocean circulation, in GCMs for future prediction.“
“If we knew what to expect, it might be possible to infer changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient from observations already available.”
This is basically Rind whining that G-d hasn’t given him a “cheat sheet” with the answers on it. Rarely do you see a “serious scientist” admit their ignorance in this fashion.
Instead of addressing the evidence Rind “casts out” paleoclimate studies from “Climate Science” and dismisses them as “speculation” not worthy of serious consideration.
BUT WAIT, IT GETS WORSE.
Because these fossils imply that the Moderate guesses about Climate Sensitivity are DEEPLY FLAWED and far too LOW.
Think about it for one second. If the Moderate’s forecast of only +2C to +3C at CO2 levels of 560ppm is true, how high would the CO2 level have to get to warm up the High Arctic by +35C?
Keeping in mind that it is a CERTAINTY that Climate Sensitivity to CO2 concentrations DECLINES as those concentrations increase. IE you get the “biggest bang for the buck” when CO2 levels are low. As they increase, their effectiveness in causing warming declines.
About 20,000ppm is the answer you are looking for. A number that still pops up in Denier circles as the “highest” level of CO2 in the past as a way of minimizing and trivializing the current level of 425ppm.
Rind “punted” on that point and hoped “future studies” would clarify this mystery.
Good science right?
BUT WAIT, IT GETS EVEN WORSE.
How many of you know what the term “Latitudinal Temperature Gradient” means?
You will soon. It’s what’s going to cause RAPID COLLAPSE.
Rind got that wrong as well.
The “nagging” issue of POLAR AMPLIFICATION.
Since the 1975 model it has been understood that there would be SOME “heat buildup” at the Poles. The question was always “how much?”
This is EXTREMELY consequential and IMPORTANT. Warming the Poles can cause INCREDIBLY BAD things to happen.
- Melting the Arctic icecap causes a BOE and DISASTER. (now forecast for around 2035).
- Causing the Boreal Forests to BURN causes MEGA DISASTER. (happening NOW and not going to stop until they are completely gone, estimated 2050).
- Causing the Permafrost, which has accumulated 700,000 years of organic carbon, to melt causes EPIC MEGA DISASTER. (has started, will accelerate as Boreal Forests BURN. this is the one that pushes us up to +10C. There is a LOT of carbon in that permafrost).
We REALLY shouldn’t do this.
Here’s Rind in 1998.
“Doubled CO2 equilibrium simulations from different atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models show different degrees of high-latitude climate warming amplification.”
“In the GFDL model (Alarmist), the temperature response at high latitudes is 3–4 times that at the equator.”
“While in the GISS model (Moderate), it is only close to a factor of 2 [Rind, 1987a].”
“The regional response in these different models depends on these differences in equator-to-pole gradients, which affects the hydrologic cycle, in general, and storm energetics [Rind, 1987a, 1988].”
That was very influential.
NASA/GISS is regarded as the “Gold Standard” in Climate Science. It became an accepted FACT that this would be the expected amount of “Arctic Amplification”.
High-Latitude Climate Warming Amplification should ONLY be “close to a factor of 2”.
2022 — Reality DISAGREES with RIND.
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.
Mika Rantanen, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, Kalle Nordling, Otto Hyvärinen, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Timo Vihma & Ari Laaksone
Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (2022)
“In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.”
“Numerous studies report (based on models) that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average.”
“Here we show, by using several observational datasets (REAL collected DATA) which cover the Arctic region. That during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature.”
“We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations.”
“The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979.”
Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.”
DO YOU SEE WHAT THIS MEANS?
This is how the Arctic warms up enough for alligators to live there, this is how Antarctica warms up enough for aspen forests to grow there.
HEAT “builds up” at the Poles REALLY FAST and a WHOLE LOT MORE than the Moderates thought.
What the paleoclimate data indicates, is that an “avalanche of heat” is in the process of raising the High Arctic temperature by about +20C.
The High Arctic is warming around 4X faster than the rest of the planet. Siberia has warmed up around +8C since 1979. This is why Siberia and Canada are BURNING. It’s not going to stop and Alaska is NEXT.
Because the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere have different physical configurations (2/3's of land is in NH, more ocean in SH, NH Pole is an ocean, SH Pole is landlocked) the SPEED that this HEAT is warming them is different.
The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the Antarctic. The amount of ENERGY each will absorb over time will be the same. The Southern Ocean will buffer the rate of warming for Antarctica. It won’t prevent it.
THIS WARMING in ANTARCTICA is NOT “UNEXPECTED”.
To anyone who knows more than just Moderate “Climate Science”.
My very first climate article talked about this in February of 2020.
It’s Raining in Antarctica and the Arctic is on Fire.
The opening line was,
Recently the highest temperature ever recorded in Antarctica was recorded at an Argentinian research station. It was a jaw dropping 70℉. This broke the previous record of 65℉ that was set only a few weeks before.
I wrote:
What’s striking to me, is how frequently we are caught off guard by the various ways the extra energy in the climate system manifests itself. For example, if someone had told me in 1985 that the Arctic poles would warm up first from global warming I wouldn’t have believed them. It’s not an intuitive result. You imagine that everyplace will heat up the same amount, more or less evenly. It seems wrong that the Arctic poles have warmed up almost 3℃ while the rest of the world has warmed just over 1℃. Yet that’s what’s happening.
What’s happening to the Climate System isn’t “mysterious”, unless your academic career requires it to be so.
“It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then. It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.”
Brian McNoldy,” hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.
“I pray we’re having a once-in-a-lifetime year of hot sea surface temperatures, but I do fear there may be something else going on that is causing a long-term change in sea surface temperatures we hadn’t predicted. All bets are off now, this is something that is so unusual, it’s challenging our past expectations.”
John Abraham, professor at the University of St. Thomas, studies ocean temperatures.
BUT WAIT, IT GETS EVEN FUCKING WORSE NOW.
Remember the MASSIVE warming spike of 2023?
The one that shifted our temperature baseline +0.3C in a SINGLE YEAR.
That’s going to translate to a +1.2C to +1.5C SPIKE for the High Arctic over the next 3 to 4 years. Think Canada’s wildfires were bad last year. They were TRIVIAL in comparison to what’s about to happen in Canada, Siberia, and Alaska.
Think Greenland was melting FAST before? It just accelerated by a LOT.
Those are JUST the feedbacks in the High Arctic.
Worried about the Antarctic glaciers melting and RAPID sea level rise “drowning” all the port cities of the world?
You should be!
It’s going to happen A LOT “faster than expected”.
We could be looking at as much as +25ft (+8m) of sea level rise by 2100. It could be higher, that’s my “conservative” model.
Think food is getting expensive?
It’s about to get A LOT WORSE.
The evidence from the 30’s indicates this warming is going to cause massive heat build up in the Mid-Latitudes as well. Not resulting in record high temperatures, instead resulting in prolonged HEATWAVES.
Dust Bowl 2.0, here we come. 2024 -2028 is probably going to see the collapse of the Great Plains agricultural zone.
The list goes on and on.
This is not THEORETICAL anymore. This is our NOW.
We are “in crisis” right now and it’s about to get a lot hotter.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
rc — 040724
Personal Notes:
I saw something extraordinary the other day and wanted to include it here.
A poem from a time of COLLAPSE.
Courtesy of neschemal.
《《菜人哀》》
夫妇年饥同饿死，不如妾向菜人市。
For us lovers to starve to death together, it’s better that I (the wife) sell myself as food.
得钱三千资夫归，一脔可以行一里。
I am worth three thousand at the marketplace, and one slice of my carcass is worth a li (Chinese mile) in travel.
芙蓉肌理烹生香，乳作馄饨人争尝。
A woman’s muscle is tender and sweet, to fill wontons with my breast would be coveted by the starving to taste.
两肱先断挂屠店，徐割股腴持作汤。
First you’ll see my arms hung in the butcher shop, then see my buttocks in chops for the soup.
不令命绝要鲜肉，片片看入饥人腹。
Don’t let them kill me first before dismembering me, such that my meat will be fresh when I envision myself being eaten.
男肉腥臊不可餐，女肤脂凝少汗粟。
A man’s meat is too coarse for food, and a woman sweats less when she gets vivisected.
三日肉尽余一魂，求夫何处斜阳昏。
In three days only my soul will remain (the body eaten), and in the evening crepuscular rays I will search for you.
天生妇作菜人好，能使夫归得终老。
By heaven’s decree women’s meat are more suitable for food, and we will be together till the end of time.
生葬肠中饱几人，却幸乌鸢啄不早。
Maybe my funeral will be hosted in someones intestines, but that’s too bad for the crows and vultures!
Context: This poem is written during the Ming-Qing Transition, where climate change (Little Ice Age) induced droughts, famines, war and bubonic plague reduced the population by some 60% in a very short span of a few decades (99%+ depopulation in some areas, such as Sichuan, and 90% in some areas due to the plague alone, in Northern Zhejiang). The poem is about a wife professing her love to her husband in a time of extreme misery. There’s other literature as well from this period, but none are translated or known at all in the West.
The Ming collapse probably is the most recent civilization collapse in history. It also happened *very* fast. The Ming dynasty was very prosperous most of the way through the Wanli era (1588–1620) with the first widespread famines and droughts hitting around 1628 in Shaanbei.
1641–1646 corresponds to the sharpest population drops in the North and West, with 1650s to the 1670s being the worst in the Southern regions.
People didn’t respond well, at all. The eunuch faction believed the bureaucrats were corrupt virtue signalers, the bureaucrats believed the eunuch faction to be cruel illiterates.
The Tianqi emperor (r. 1620–1627) didn’t care about governance and spent all his time with carpentry.
The Chongzhen emperor (r. 1627–1644) was diligent but distrustful, and was given a hand of cards with no winning play.
You had warlords who lost faith in humanity entirely and believed all life must be guilty for Heaven/God to withhold food and rain for everyone to starve.
Some kind souls survived by monking out and foraging in the wilderness.
The peasant rebels were especially cruel since they believed the ill gotten wealth and decadence of those in power caused all this misery.
Sexual impropriety was also common starting from the Wanli era and celebrated alongside with hedonism.
Imagine being born during a time of abundance and luxury only to have constant famines and plagues in your early adulthood.
Now imagine everyone else enjoying a life of luxury and spitting on the poor, so you work hard only to find out that working hard begets more poverty. That must have been what the peasant rebels thought.
People don’t really adapt. They just become cynical and ruthless.
u/neschemal on Reddit.
Uummmmmm . . . This one left me numb. I have already accepted the likely future, but I like to pretend. Very nice cool weather here in North Florida, just beautiful, 50 degrees nights, low 70's daytime. Birds chirping . . . but its artificial. I see the sky covered in Chem trails from planes flying back and forth, putting up an artificial sun shade. How long can they do it before some other consequences appear? What kind of chemicals make a plane's con trial last 3 hours and then turn to a light fog cover when six or eight of these trails intersect? Weird stuff is going on.