The Crisis Report - 63
Has the “Climate Apocalypse” started? — Part Three
The Global Oceans are RAPIDLY warming. How should YOU respond to that, who’s NARRATIVE should you listen to?
That’s a BAD THING. A VERY BAD thing. What does “Climate Science” say about it?
Should I be preparing for the “End of the World”?
Who’s narrative should I be listening to?
What are the facts and how should I interpret them?
Should I be an “Optimist” or a “Doomer” right now?
— — — — — — — — — — —
This map shows you “how hot” the oceans are right now.
This map shows you how much “hotter than normal” they are, “right now”.
Have you ever “boiled water” in a pot?
If you have, you know that you have to add a lot of HEAT to water to get it to warm up. Do you have ANY IDEA how much ENERGY it takes to warm up the GLOBAL Ocean like this?
I do.
Which works out to around 13 billion 731 million HIROS worth of ENERGY.
Added to the Oceans in just the last 50 years.
We estimate the amount of ENERGY released by the Chicxulub Impact Event that killed off the dinosaurs was around 10 billion HIROS. We have forced ALMOST 14 billion HIROS into the Oceans in just 50 years.
About 500 million of that total was added just in 2023.
NOW.
If you don’t know much about Climate Science, or Paleontology, or Ecology, or Meteorology, or science in general. You might be asking yourself.
How “seriously” should I worry about this?
Particularly when people like Hannah Ritchie, who just wrote a book entitled “Not the End of the World”, say this about the future.
“My perspective on +1.5C hasn’t shifted much since then (2015). Without a major, unexpected technological breakthrough, we will go past this target.”
Yeah, like THIS FUCKING YEAR Hannah.
Nearly all the climate scientists I know agree: they obviously want to cap warming at +1.5C, but very few (about 5%) think it will happen.
What a “half truth” bit of “true lying”. Do you know what the scientists who wrote the IPCC report ACTUALLY think? Seventy five percent of them think it’s going to be +2.5C or hotter. Almost 55% of them think it’s going to be +3C or hotter.
“This doesn’t stop them fighting for it, though; they know that every +0.1C matters, and is worth working for.”
Finally something true.
“But my perspective on +2C has changed. I’m now cautiously optimistic that we can get close to it.”
It’s more likely than not that we will pass 2C, but perhaps not by much. And there is still a reasonable chance — if we really step up to the challenge — that we can stay below it.
Hannah Ritchie 2023
Hannah Ritchie’s book has been reviewed by the NYT, the Guardian, and described by Margaret Atwood as:
“an inspiring data-mine which gives us not only real guidance, but the most necessary ingredient of all: hope”
Even Bill Gates weighed in recently.
Hannah Ritchie will make you optimistic about climate change
In the latest episode of my podcast, I talked to author and researcher Hannah Ritchie about why there are more reasons for hope than one might think. — Bill Gates 02/01/2024
Hannah Ritchie is the DARLING of the Climate Moderates. She says things are going to be OK if we ALL work “really hard” on the problem. She says that basically our biggest issue now is “The Doomers”.
“Doomers are WORSE than Deniers”. — Hannah Ritche
Hannah Ritchie CLEARLY doesn’t think the 14 billion Hiro number is “catastrophic”. Although she stresses that “Climate Change is real and serious” again and again in interviews like this one with the Guardian.
“It’s appropriate to say that climate change is a really serious problem that has a large impact. We need to get across a sense of urgency, because there is a lot at stake.
But there’s often this message coming through that there’s nothing we can do about it: it’s too late, we’re doomed, so just enjoy life. That’s a very damaging message — because it’s not true, and there’s no way that it drives action.
The other thing about doomsday predictions is that they’re a dream for climate deniers, who weaponise poor forecasts and say: “Look, you can’t trust the scientists, they’ve got this wrong before, why should we listen to them now?”
NOW.
Here’s the THING you need to know about Hannah. Hannah is NOT a Climate Scientist. Hell, she’s not ANY KIND of “scientist” at all. She studied environmental sciences and is now a researcher for OurWorldinData.Org. She’s also only 30 years old, so she doesn’t really KNOW much about the history of “Climate Science”.
Hannah Ritchie has lived her WHOLE short life, in a WORLD where there was only ONE VERSION of Climate Science. The MODERATE version. That’s the ONLY one she accepts as “valid”.
She is a ZEALOT for the Moderate “Climate Orthodoxy” and views deviation from it as “denial” or “doomism”. She self describes as a “Techno Optimist” although she often states that Techno-Optimism is actually “Techno Realism”.
How do the Techno-Optimists\Moderates SEE what’s happening now?
NASA/GISS, NOAA, and the Climate Moderates like Berkeley Earth AREN’T SURE anything is actually happening at the moment.
Global Temperature Report for 2023 — Berkeley Earth Jan, 12 2024.
“2023 was a highly unusual year in several respects, including record warmth in most ocean basins and a large deviation from the historical trend.”
Warmth in 2023 greatly exceeded expectations, and was much stronger than normal this early in an El Niño.
“Some studies have recently argued that the pace of global warming may be accelerating.”
“However, given historical variability in surface temperatures, it still remains too early to conclude whether or not the pace of surface warming has increased.”
— Berkeley Earth 2024
They are still saying that the current “off the charts” warming could just be a “natural variation”. They want 10 more years of RECORD HEAT before they are WILLING to SAY, “somethings wrong”.
SO.
If you WANT to BELIEVE the Optimists.
The Optimists and Moderates say this recent run of NINE YEARS of “year after year” RECORD BREAKING HEAT in the Oceans. Is “serious” but not a sign of a Climate Apocalypse or COLLAPSE of Civilization.
Then you probably think everything is going to be OK and no one needs to panic.
THIS is the MAJORITY Opinion right now.
It is based on the Moderate understanding of how the Climate System works. MOST IMPORTANTLY it is based on “how much” warming the Moderates GUESS that “doubling” the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (2XCO2) will cause.
Hannah Ritchie has lived her whole life in a world where the Moderates in the field of Climate Science WON against the Alarmists in the 80’s and completely discredited them.
A world, where if you questioned the Moderate ‘Climate Science Orthodoxy’ and said their guesses might be “too low”. You were labeled as a DOOMER and your career was FINISHED.
Ask James Hansen.
The Guardian did a “revisit” on Hansen in 2018 because he has become so marginalized in the public mind. “Deniers” have waged a decades long campaign to convince people that Hansen was completely wrong about Global Warming.
The Guardian’s conclusion.
30 years later, deniers are still lying about Hansen’s amazing global warming predictions.
Koch paychecks seem to be strong motivators to lie.
Or Jem Bendell.
Or Guy McPherson.
Or a host of other Alarmists who have been pushed to the fringes and “marginalized” in the public mind.
Hannah Ritchie doesn’t really KNOW that much about Climate Science. She is taking the position of the Moderates as being the ONLY valid position in the field.
Then, using their numbers and projections, she is able to get to a future world where WARMING has been checked at “slightly over +2C by 2100”. Assuming we all, “work really hard” and “pull together” on this.
If you look at the last “best forecast” of the Earth’s Climate Sensitivity done in 2020.
An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
It states: that at atmospheric CO2 levels of 560ppm (2XCO2).
‘Now, bringing together evidence from observed warming, Earth’s distant past and climate models, as well as advances in our scientific understanding of the climate. After four years of labor and detailed discussions by an international team of scientists, we are able to quantify better than ever before how the world’s surface temperature responds to increasing CO2 levels”.
“Our findings suggest that the range of ECS is “likely” (66%) to be between +2.6C and +4.1C.”
Well, these Climate Scientists think Hannah is full of shit. Unless you think +2.6C is “just over +2.0C”.
FYI- This IS the Moderate forecast for 2XCO2 in this report. The Alarmist forecast, carried in the report for the first time in 2020 and only after a BIG FIGHT, was >05% chance that the GMT could increase as much as +5.7C.
Hannah is giving you ONLY ONE SIDE of the story. She seems to think it’s the ONLY side. If you want to BELIEVE in her message then you have to BELIEVE that the Moderates are RIGHT.
You have to have FAITH if you want to get to Hannah’s “Techno-Utopia”. You have to BELIEVE and ignore the voices of the “doomers” and “nay sayers”. You have to be CERTAIN the Moderates are RIGHT.
Because REALITY doesn't.
The amount of ENERGY that went into the Oceans LAST year was +15 Zetta Joules.
This is a MASSIVE jump from what it was in 2010 on a “per year” basis.
WARMING has ACCELERATED.
The “cause” of that WARMING is a MASSIVE and SUDDEN increase in the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI). This is the “imbalance” between the AMOUNT of ENERGY going into the Climate System VS the AMOUNT that “bleeds” out of the Climate System each YEAR.
In 2004 it was about +0.3 Watts per meter squared.
In 2010 it was about +0.5 Watts per meter squared.
In 2023 it was about +1.4 Watts per meter squared.
THAT’S the SOURCE of the WARMING.
That’s where the +15ZJ came from.
In the field of Climate Science this is THE ISSUE that all the SERIOUS players are discussing.
The Minimizers are saying “don’t worry, it’s just the El Nino and natural variation”.
The Moderates are saying “it might be a cause for alarm, but we need at least 10 years of warming before we can say for sure”.
The Alarmists are saying that the ALBEDO has “dimmed” and we are about to LURCH up into a +1.5C world by 2026 and a +2C world by 2035. At THE LATEST.
We will know SOON who’s RIGHT.
By the end of 2025 it will be really clear that the Moderates were WRONG.
But for now, Hannah Ritchie has been on MSNBC, CNN, and the talk show circuit for her book. Her message of HOPE has reached millions and soothed their “Climate Anxiety”.
Who CARES if it was a LIE.
Because, “Telling everyone the world as they know it is over and that they’re going to die isn’t an effective communications strategy, even if it’s true.”
Moving Beyond Doomism: Data-Driven Strategies for Effective Climate Content
It kept the “doomed” at their jobs and working. So that Hannah’s “Techno Paradise” could be built for the survivors.
End Part Three.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
— rc 02042024
Personal Notes:
I am picking on Hannah a bit here. In part because of her garbage book of delusions and in part because I have interacted with her here on SubStack. She is a Zealot and her mind is CLOSED.
She BELIEVES HARD in the FUTURE of the Techno Optimists. She is willing to LIE to you in order to make it happen.
Most of the Techno Optimists ARE willing to LIE to you.
But, in fairness, I thought you should hear their message and SEE what it is based on.
They BELIEVE in the 1979 models of the Moderates and Oil Companies that ESTIMATED warming at between +2C and +3C from 2XCO2. Those models and GUESSES have been presented to them their whole lives as “settled science”.
They think the Alarmists are deluded or grifters. They pay “lip service” to James Hansen as a “father of Climate Science” but then they dismiss him as a “washed up has-been” not worth paying attention too.
Hannah Ritchie’s VOICE is EVERYWHERE right now. She even gets to be interviewed by Bill Gates, one of the richest men in the world.
plz keep posting here despite reddit blow up
OK, what are we going to "work really hard" on after we "all come together?" Will we work really hard on having COP meetings chaired by the oil companies? Will we work really hard on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, you know like the progress we've seen so far?
A Doomer is worse than a denier because it doesn't motivate people to "work really hard at coming together?"
Are these people insane? Nobody is DOING anything. Nobody. Is. Doing. Anything.
I feel like I'm in an insane asulym or a Twighlight Zone episode.