The Crisis Report - 59

Hansen has new data on next year and the Rate of Warming.

This is IT. This is the year we find out if the “Alarmists” were right.

From : Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good. (Nov, 14 2023) James Hansen, , Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy

“They do not preach that their God will rouse them a little before the nuts work loose.”

— From “The Sons of Martha” by Kipling (aka “The Engineers Creed”)

The cognitive dissonance between this report from James Hansen and what’s on the news is striking and at times “mind-melting”.

This week I watched Chris Hayes on MSNBC do a 10 minute segment about how GREAT the economy is doing and how Democrats need to talk about that more. He went on and on about how inflation is dropping, jobs are everywhere, the stock market is booming, and the Biden IRA is getting projects done across the country.

He just cannot understand why people FEEL so gloomy and anxious about the FUTURE. He blamed the “messaging” of the Democrats.

Then, you contrast that, with this, and “cognitive dissonance” happens.

Last Week in Collapse: December 10-16, 2023

Because you have to ask yourself, “Am I the crazy one here”? The weirdo holding the sign saying “Repent Sinners, the END is Nigh”.

From this weeks “Last Week in Collapse”.

“The Panama Canal Authority has limited ship transits because of drought. This is hitting grain ships particularly hard, because they don’t know their transit dates as far in advance as other types of vessels. Grain also has a lower profit margin than most container ships and other vessels. Will these ships cut the line during global famines, or will profit-seeking continue to prevail?

Deep cuts in spending, and inflation, are coming to Argentina amid the new President’s drastic economic measures, intended to bring back private investment and monetary stability to a long-destabilized economy. About one third of government jobs are being considered to be eliminated.

The IMF says that the economy is on the edge of “Cold War Two.” International trade is slowing and “geoeconomic fragmentation” is becoming more common as some countries and corporations are moving (or being moved) into the U.S. team, or the China team.

In Canada, half the population is on the edge of financial ruin. In Egypt, people are trying to escape the shitty economy, even if it means seeking work in Libya. In Sri Lanka, investors are concerned that social unrest could break out again next year. And the IMF is seeking to regulate cryptocurrency more.

The Eurozone is sliding into recession. The cost of living in the United States has become crushingly depressing for some, who have called this “the silent depression”. A social and economic crisis is brewing again.

Extreme weather resulted in a temporary fuel crisis in Yaounde, Cameroon. The price of oil dropped below $70 for the first time in 5 months. The Nigerian electrical grid Collapsed for several hours; on average, it Collapses 5 times a year.

Mark Zuckerberg is building a doomsday compound in Hawai’i that doubles as a corporate getaway, a project estimated to cost over $270,000,000. Strict non-disclosure agreements are stifling information about some of the details, but a few stories and pictures are leaking out. One site worker has died. Zuckerberg’s presence — specifically his potential to spend or donate money on certain community projects — has also divided local society.

The U.S. approved a new kind of nuclear reactor, set to be built first in Tennessee. China is bringing online a new generation of nuclear reactor too, built in Shandong province. Meanwhile, coal has its best year ever, with a global demand of 8.5 billion metric tonnes in 2023.”

NO One in the Media or in Politics seems to be interpreting these data points as signs of accelerating COLLAPSE. Yet that’s ALL I can “see”.

PARTICULARLY WHEN CONSIDERED IN CONTEXT WITH THIS.

The “Old” models are the green dotted line. They forecast +2C between 2080 and 2100. The Rate of Warming has accelerated since 2010 and our trajectory has become the yellow cone. Hansen is projecting +2C (year round) will be reached by 2040 and +4C between 2080 and 2100. The UN projects a -25% decline in GLOBAL agricultural output at +2C.

Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good.

14 November 2023 by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy

Abstract.

Global warming is accelerating because the driver for warming, Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), has doubled in the past decade.

When Hansen talks about the “Earth Energy Imbalance” DOUBLING since 2010, this is what he is referring to. Zero, in this context, means that exactly the same amount of ENERGY that enters the Climate System in a year, leaves it the same year. The PEAKS in the last 150,000 years represent WARM periods between the ICE AGES.

Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023–24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Ninos.

Fig. 3. Global temperature by season during growth and phasedown of the 3 large El Ninos. Hansen argues that this El Nino is the weakest of the three in terms of the “strength of the pattern” but has the “most ENERGY” of the three because of the “background warming” that has made the world so much warmer in the last 20 years.

The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015–16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming.

***The Rate of Warming has jumped to +0.49C/decade. That’s a HALF a DEGREE of WARMING per DECADE!***

We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration.

Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.

***Meaning, that after this El Nino, the PERMANENT Global Temperature will be +1.5C over our 1950–1980 baseline. At a Rate of Warming of +0.49C/decade this means +2C by 2030, +2.5C by 2040, +3C by 2050, and +4C by 2070.***

Global temperature has increased 0.18°C/decade since 1970 (Fig. 1). Temperature prior to the current El Nino was ~1.2°C above the preindustrial level (taken to be the 1880–1920 average, the earliest period with reasonable global coverage of instrumental measurements).

The “official” number for Global Warming is +1.2C since “the late 19th century”. This was a “compromise” worked out during the Trump years. After decades of arguing about measurements between 1850 and 1880 they were rejected because a global network of weather stations using standardized instruments wasn’t established until 1880.

The goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[3] and the Paris Agreement[4] WAS for the rate of warming to slow down so that global warming stabilizes at a level of 1.5°C or less.

Here’s another way of visualizing the JUMP in the EEI. ENERGY is FLOODING our Climate System.

We find,[5] on the contrary, that global warming post-2010 must be in an accelerated warming phase, based on a large increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is the immediate driver for global temperature change.

Fig. 5. Global surface temperature relative to 1880–1920 based on GISTEMP analysis.[1],[2]

We project an acceleration of the post-2010 warming rate by 50–100 percent (yellow area in Fig. 1). Thus, global temperature is now accelerating past 1.5°C and it could reach 2°C in the 2030s, barring purposeful actions to reduce or reverse Earth’s energy imbalance.

The yellow cone is the warming we can expect because of the change in the EEI. As you can see, it’s a LOT “faster than expected”.

Acceleration of global warming has been hidden so far by the large natural variability of global temperature, especially because of the unusual 3-year period of strong La Ninas that ended this year. If we wait long enough, say another decade, the changed trend will be obvious, but we need to understand the situation sooner.

We will argue elsewhere[6] that actions to cool the planet should be taken within less than a decade if we are to have a good chance of avoiding polar climate change amplifications that would be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse.

The Crisis Report — 56

Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our “Climate Paradigm” — Part 4. The PERMAFROST — is MELTING, “faster than expected”.

Right now, there are TWO NARRATIVES happening in the World.

The MSNBC One says, that things are better than ever and progress is being made on all fronts.

The other says, that COLLAPSE has started and that we are being lied to about it. Or that people are just too stupid to see it yet.

THIS YEAR will show us which one of these narratives is correct.

Fig. 6. Global temperature (relative to 1880–1920 mean for each month) for the 1997–98, 2015–16 and 2023–24 El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (the El Nino Peak Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated.

My money is on the Alarmist’s.

“A Miracle Will Occur” Is Not Sensible Climate Policy”

Dec, 7th 2023 by James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, and Makiko Sato

The COP28 Chairman and the United Nations Secretary General say that the goal to keep global warming below 1.5°C is alive, albeit barely, implying that the looser goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement (to keep warming well below 2°C) is still viable.

We find that even the 2°C goal is dead if policy is limited to emission reductions and plausible CO2 removal. IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which advises the UN) has understated global warming in the pipeline and understated fossil fuel emissions in the pipeline via lack of realism in the Integrated Assessment Models that IPCC uses for climate projections.

Wishful thinking as a policy approach must be replaced by transparent climate analysis, knowledge of the forcings that drive climate change, and realistic assessment of policy options.

The next several years provide a narrow window of time to define actions that could still achieve a bright future for today’s young people.

We owe young people the knowledge and the tools to continually assess the situation and devise and adjust the course of action.

Our approach to analysis of global climate change, as described in Global Warming in the Pipeline, puts comparable emphasis on

(1) Earth’s paleoclimate history.

(2) Global climate models (GCMs).

(3) Modern observations of climate processes and climate change.

One purpose of the Pipeline paper was to distinguish between this approach and that of IPCC, which puts principal emphasis on GCMs.

GCMs are an essential tool, but the models must be consistent with Earth’s history and the projections of future climate must employ plausible
scenarios for energy use and for the climate forcings that drive climate change.

Policy implications of climate science can be grasped from a basic understanding of the human-made forcings that are driving Earth’s climate away from the relatively stable climate of the Holocene (approximately the past 10,000 years). Our task is to provide understandable quantification of climate forcings and changes that will be needed to maintain a hospitable climate.

Concerned public, including policymakers, must learn to appreciate basic graphs that summarize real-world data, because these must provide the basis for policy discussion.

(Examples are provided by me)

In 1850 we were at the “green line” with a CO2 level of around 280ppm. We had NO IDEA what that number represented in terms of the Climate System and Global Temperature. We are now at 420ppm and climbing.

The analysis of the ice cores to produce this record of the last 800Ky of the Earth’s climate history is a monumental achievement. The CORRELATION between CO2 levels and Global Temperatures is VERY CLEAR.

For the last 2my, we have lived in the ‘blue zone’. CO2 levels fluctuated between 180ppm and 280ppm. We are NOW at 420ppm (orange line). It’s been about 18mya since CO2 levels were this high. The RED LINE is roughly 560ppm or 2XCO2 (double the 1850 level of 280ppm). The last time CO2 levels were that HIGH was about 25mya and temperatures were somewhere between +5C and +6C over our 1850 baseline.

In 1976, what you would see would be about +0.6C of planetary warming since 1850 (the orange line). This is about 1/2 of what the Alarmists predicted. So, if the Alarmists predicted a +4C to +6C temperature increase. It would appear that they OVERESTIMATED by 100% and that it was 1/2 that in REALITY. At the 1979 Climate Meeting at Woods Hole, the Moderate position on Climate Sensitivity became that it would be +2C to +3C.

The Moderate position in Climate Science is basically “take what the Alarmists say and divide it in half”.

REALITY CHECK.

Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality. Nature Climate Change, 2020. “Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change. Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970 (the red line).

Implications of global warming acceleration.

Yah think, Zeke Hausfather?

Accelerated global warming will cause the 12-month running-mean global temperature to exceed 1.5°C within the next few months and reach a level far above 1.5C by May 2024.

Global temperature should fall back below 1.5C with the next La Nina, but the decline likely will be limited and the El Nino/La Nina mean of 1.5°C will have been reached. Subsequently, global temperature will go even higher; that’s assured by Earth’s huge energy imbalance, which makes it unnecessary to wait a decade to declare that the 1.5°C limit has been breached.

We conclude that the increase of aerosol forcing since 2015 is of the order of 1 W/m2.

The continued rise of absorbed solar radiation is caused by growth of cloud and sea ice fast feedbacks, which rise in proportion to the accelerated global warming.

Some studies, e.g., Diamond, suggest that the global IMO-induced aerosol forcing is only about (0.1W/m2). Such a small aerosol-cloud forcing would be consistent with the IPCC best estimate for the total indirect (aerosol-cloud) forcing of only ~ 0.5 W/m2 (Fig. 8).

However, the observed response to the IMO “experiment” rules out such small estimates for the aerosol-cloud forcing.

On the contrary, we find that a single aerosol type (sulfate from ships) yields a forcing at least that large, that preindustrial humanity was already producing an additional aerosol forcing of at least 0.5 W/m2 from wood and biomass fuel burning that continues today, and thus that the peak human made aerosol forcing is at least ~2 W/m2.

A comprehensive review by Bellouin et al. reveals how IPCC was led to their unrealistically small aerosol forcing, as summarized in Fig. 8.

Review of aerosol physics by Bellouin yields a range of estimated aerosol forcing as large as 3.6 W/m2 (blue bars in Fig. 8), but forcing exceeding 1.6 W/m2 (red region in Fig. 8) was ruled out because greater aerosol forcing combined with “mainstream” (Moderate) climate sensitivity would not yield global warming as large as observed.

The aerosol forcing that IPCC defines as “highest probability” is that which yields best agreement with mainstream GCMs.

IPCC describes this substitute for measurement of aerosol forcing as an “emergent constraint” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), a sophisticated pseudonym for the artifice. However, given the larger ECS dictated by real-world paleoclimate data (4.8°C±1.2°C for 2×CO2), that “constraint” instead implies a large aerosol forcing.

In summary, global warming acceleration is a result of high climate sensitivity (proven by paleoclimate data) and large (negative) aerosol forcing (implied by high climate sensitivity and supported by the IMO “experiment”).

Observed doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance and the rising anomaly of absorbed solar radiation assure that an accelerated global warming rate will continue for at least a decade.

Thus, the 2°C global warming limit will also be breached, unless purposeful actions are taken to reduce our present extraordinary planetary energy imbalance.

Meaning.

• +2C by 2030

• +3C by 2050

• +4C by 2070

In other words, if we wish young people to inherit a planet comparable to the one that has existed for the past 10,000 years, it will be necessary to reduce the enormous geoengineering of the planet that our human-made emissions have engendered.

• James Hansen, December 7th 2023

There are 1.34 BILLION people in Africa. Next year’s harvests are going to be BAD around the WORLD.

Do you see why my mind is MELTING?

None of this is in the NEWS.

So, either I’m crazy, or things are about to get WORSE a LOT more quickly.

Make this Christmas COUNT. It’s probably the LAST of the “world that was”.

This is what I “see”.

This is my analysis.

This is my “Crisis Report”

• rc

12/18/23