The Crisis Report - 41

The Climate Crisis is here, right now. Dealing with it should be the ONLY issue on everyone’s mind. Because we are out of time.

First published by New Scientist in 2009, and republished by Parag Khanna for his book Connectography (2016). This was the best science of what a 4C warmer world would look like. By 2500. That’s how slow they thought warming would be.

If it feels like we are living in “End Times” it’s because we are.

I feel very disassociated from the world these days. It’s like I am looking at everything through a thick glass. There is this overwhelming sadness and sense of witnessing things winding down.

People have wondered why Xi asked Putin to delay his attack on Ukraine until after the Winter Olympics. I don’t.

China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics - 03/22 Reuters

China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics, Western intel shows - 03/22 CNN

China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say 03/22 - NYT

He did it out of nostalgia and sadness because he thought it might be the last Olympics ever. He wanted to hold back the fall of night for a few last days before things started coming undone.

Xi, is oddly sentimental. Putin is not. Putin went for the jugular.

If you are still unclear what the war in Ukraine is about here’s my analysis from March 1st of 2022.

We are having a Sarajevo moment — In Ukraine, we are seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”. -Medium or The Crisis Report - 33

I stand by what I wrote then. Nothing has happened to prove me wrong and lots of additional information proving my analysis correct has developed.

Most analysts are still clueless as to what motivated this attack.

Because they don’t understand Putin’s actions,

the standard assumption has become that he made an epic miscalculation.

I don’t know why my opponent made that move, but I’m sure he made a mistake.

Most of these same analysts said that China’s strict Covid lock-down policy was a “costly mistake”.

China’s Zero-Covid: What Should the West Do? — June 27, 2022

While articles like this were appearing, we were telling China what they should do.

Estimates of long Covid are startlingly high — Here’s how to understand them. July 6, 2022

Covid-19 reinfections may increase the likelihood of new health problems

Antibody evasion by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.2.12.1, BA.4, & BA.5

During the Omicron Wave, Death Rates Soared for Older People

Then we argued that Xi, “botched” the removal of lock-down measures.

How China Botched the End of Zero-COVID

Other countries have successfully transitioned from strict lock-downs. Beijing has wasted the last three years. - Foreign Policy

Zero COVID’s Failure Is Xi’s Failure

Whatever happens with case counts in China now, one person owns them. - The Atlantic

Zero-Covid was supposed to prove China’s supremacy. How did it all go so wrong for Xi Jinping? - CNN

But Western countries are desperate for Chinese workers to keep working.

So desperate, that the West has convinced itself that China is the one making mistake, after mistake. That Xi is terrified of rebellion and revolution and allowing his fears to drive his policy.

Western Pundits are sure they understand the situation better than Xi.

They have convinced themselves that the West has the right to demand China change domestic policies in order to maintain production levels. To “criticize” and tell Xi, that he is making “mistakes”

We are doing it because the supply chain problems are getting worse and the West is starting to get scared.

So scared we told China last year, “Hey, we see what you’re doing and you better stop it or we will kick you out of the club”.

China, NATO declared, was a systemic “challenge,” calling out the country for the first time in its mission statement. The country’s policies were “coercive,” its cyberoperations “malicious” and its rhetoric “confrontational.” Together with Russia, Beijing was striving to “subvert the rules-based international order,” the alliance said — efforts that “run counter to our values and interests.”

Labeled a ‘Challenge’ by NATO, China Signals Its Own Hard-Line Worldview

NATO declares China a security challenge for the first time

NATO lists China as one of its strategic priorities for the next decade, saying Beijing’s policies challenge its ‘interests, security and values’.

Don’t take this lightly. In the highly formalized language of statecraft, where words have meaning and consequence, this was a massive escalation. China has in effect, “been put on our shit list”.

Western leaders don’t want to use those words, because being transparent would cause a lot of panic. But the West is beginning to understand that something isn’t right.

Russia and China don’t seem to care about the damage they are doing to the Global Economy. Our assumption is that they are the ones making mistakes and miscalculations.

Yet we still don’t understand their motivation.

We still haven’t realized how bad the Climate Crisis really is.

Using ice cores we have extremely accurate measurements of CO2 levels for the last 800,000 years.

Because we have a high resolution climate record in the Greenland ice sheet, we know with 100% certainty that CO2 levels for the last 800 thousand years have fluctuated between 180ppm and 280ppm. A range of about 100ppm.

The normal 100ppm range in CO2 levels changes the Earth’s Global Temperature over a +/- 6℃ range. This has been true for around 2.1 million years.

So if we use 1850, when CO2 levels were about 280ppm as our baseline, how much CO2 will it take to raise the Earth’s temperature by one degree?

This is not a trivial question. It is the essential question of Climate Change and a lot of evidence is accumulating that we got it wrong.

There are a number of ways to look at this question but it boils down to “fixed amounts” versus “increasing resistance”. They sound complex but are easy to understand.

Fixed Amount Theory

Fixed amounts would be if each degree of warming was the result of the same amount of CO2. If 100ppm of CO2 has a range of 6C of warming, then each 16ppm increase should result in 1C of warming.

If this is true, then the 140ppm we have dumped in the atmosphere would result in a massive 9C increase in the Global Mean Temperature (GMT). Nobody thinks this.

Increasing Resistance Theory

The evidence indicates that the Earth’s response to increasing CO2 levels is one of increasing resistance.

Which means,

That when the atmospheric level of C02 is at 180ppm a very small increase in CO2 will raise the Earth’s GMT by 1C.

However,

Each additional degree of warming requires a higher amount of CO2 to attain.

It sounds complicated so here’s an example of how it works.

The jump from our baseline of -6C, which is how cold it gets during Ice Ages for the last 2-3 million years, up +1C requires just a tiny +1.56ppm increase in CO2 levels

The jump from -5C to -4C requires say, twice as much CO2 or, +3.125ppm.

The jump from -4C to -3C then requires +6.25ppm.

The jump from -3C to -2C then requires +12.5ppm.

The jump from -2C to -1C then requires +25ppm.

The jump from -1C to our 1850 baseline requires +50ppm.

Which puts atmospheric CO2 levels at 280ppm.

If each additional degree of warming continues to requires twice as much CO2 to accomplish.

Then the jump from our 1850 baseline to +1C (our 1st degree of warming) should require 100ppm. Putting CO2 levels at 380ppm.

The jump from 1C to 2C (our 2nd degree of warming) should then require 200ppm. Putting CO2 levels at 580ppm.

The jump from 2C to 3C (our 3rd degree of warming) would then require 400ppm of CO2, taking the Earth to a level of 980ppm.

This argument is VERY popular in Climate Action Resistor circles. You can see why.

It implies that the Earth’s Global Mean Temperature is “sticky” and resistant to change.

That each additional degree of temperature increase, requires a massive increase in the level of CO2. Meaning that Global Warming will happen slowly and probably never get over 3C as a consequence of Human GHG’s.

If you read almost any Climate Denial or Climate Action Resistance material at all you will come across this argument. Usually followed by a “proof” using numbers and simple “commonsense math” that conclusively shows the threat of Global Warming, while real, has been weaponized and overstated by Liberals.

It’s not hard to find people who will argue that we won’t get even 1C of warming until CO2 levels reach 560ppm.

But is this true?

500my of Climate Change. This represents 60 years of collective effort by the global paleontology, geology, and earth sciences community. It is an achievement on par with the Human Genome Project.

Short answer, not exactly.

This meme still has a lot of traction in Denier circles because it’s old. It goes back to the earliest days of the Climate Change discussion when we really didn’t know the answers to anything.

The “increasing resistance” theory is the best theory for explaining observable reality. The problem is defining how fast that resistance increases, i.e. how “sensitive” the Global Temperature is to increasing levels of CO2.

When the first Climate Models were being built in the 60s/70's. They tried to reduce the scope of the problem by limiting it to the question of “how much will the Earth warm if the CO2 level doubles from the 1850 level of 280ppm to 560ppm”?

Here’s the best answer as of September 2020.

2.6–3.9C — 66%

2.3–4.5C — 95%

2.0–5.7C — 05%

An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

Which says,

There is a 95% chance at CO2 levels of 560ppm that the GMT will increase at least 2.3C and possibly as much as 4.5C.

There is a 66% chance that the GMT increase will be between 2.6C and 3.9C.

There is a 05% chance that the GMT could increase as much as 5.7C.

This is much worse than the Denier\Resister numbers, but again the question of “how accurate is it?” comes to mind. Are we “over” or “under” estimating the effect increasing levels of CO2 will have on the Earth’s GMT?

The Paleoclimate data suggest that the Earth was 4C warmer at a CO2 level of around 400ppm. We are now at 420ppm. In the paleoclimate record,

Going from 280ppm to 400ppm causes about 4C of warming.

A 23 m.y. record of low atmospheric CO2 — May 2020

Current atmospheric CO2 concentration is known to be higher than it has been during the past ∼800 k.y. of Earth history, based on direct measurement of CO2 within ice cores. A comparison to the more ancient past is complicated by a deficit of CO2 proxies that may be applied across very long spans of geologic time.

These data suggest present-day CO2 (412 ppmv) exceeds the highest levels that Earth experienced at least since the Miocene, further highlighting the present-day disruption of long-established CO2 trends within Earth’s atmosphere.

Going from 400ppm to roughly 550ppm takes us to about 6C of warming.

Going from 550ppm to roughly 1000ppm takes us to about 9C of warming.

At which point both Ice Caps are gone and sea levels rise about 70m (+200ft).

Going from 1000ppm to roughly 2000ppm takes us to about 16C of warming. Which is both the highest levels of CO2 and the hottest the Earth has gotten in the last 480my.

Concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 ppm during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago. Which is just off to the left of this chart.

Deniers always bring up the 4000ppm number as if it “proves” something. Here's the thing, at that time there was no life on the land. Life existed only in the oceans. As soon as plants colonized the land, CO2 levels plunged. They have NEVER gone above about 2,000ppm since then.

The reconstructed temperature records for the last 420 million years indicate that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations peaked at approximately 2,000 ppm during the Devonian (400 Ma) period, and again in the Triassic (220–200 Ma) period and was four times current levels during the Jurassic period (201–145 Ma).

The last two million years are known as the Quaternary glaciation and CO2 levels have fluctuated between 180ppm and 280ppm.

The paleoclimate data indicates that up to 9C of warming is possible at CO2 levels of 1000ppm.

It also indicates that we have already locked in 4C of warming.

The amount that was used to generate the map at the beginning of this article.

The paleoclimate data indicates that we underestimated the Climate sensitivity of the Earth for the 280ppm to 1000ppm CO2 range. That our “worst case” estimate of 5.7C at 560ppm is actually the most likely.

This represents an underestimate on the effect of increasing CO2 concentrations on the GMT by about 40%. Which is about the same amount that the Argo floats found we had underestimated the amount of heat in the oceans.

Surprising Depth to Global Warming's Effects -2013

Climate Change: 5 Things to Know About Rapid Ocean Warming - 2018

The new study finds that since 1991, the oceans have warmed about 60 percent faster than the average rate of warming estimated by studies summarized by the IPCC.

Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ composition -2019

All of the hard physical data we are gathering indicates our models were biased towards underestimating the effects of increasing CO2 levels. All of the hard physical data indicates we were off by about 40%.

All of the hard physical data we have gathered, says our climate models were “timid”. We have been fooling ourselves.

What’s about to happen isn’t going to be a “Climate Disaster” it’s going to be a “Climate Apocalypse”. We are going to 4C by 2100, possibly as early as 2080.

China and Russia have realized the Climate Models are off and how bad things are about to get. They are making “endgame moves” because they think that the endgame has started.

In 2020 the GMT was an “observable” 1.2C warmer than it was in 1880, the hottest year of the 19th century. It took about 140 years for the Earth’s GMT to increase that 1.2C.

We are on track to get another 1.0C of warming over the next 30 years.

It’s about to get much hotter.

Like “right now”.

Sudden Ocean Warming May Be ‘First of Many Heat Records to Shatter’

May 2, 2023

The world’s oceans have suddenly spiked much hotter and well above record levels in the last few weeks, with scientists trying to figure out what it means and whether it forecasts a surge in atmospheric warming.

From early March to last week, the global average ocean sea surface temperature jumped nearly 0.2°C (0.36°F), according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, which climate scientists use and trust. That may sound small, but for the average of the world’s oceans — which account for 71% of Earth’s area — to rise so much in that short a time, “that’s huge,” said University of Colorado climate scientist Kris Karnauskas. “That’s an incredible departure from what was already a warm state to begin with.”

An ‘Extreme Event on a Global Scale’

Climate scientists have been talking about the ocean warming on social media and amongst themselves, AP writes. Some, like University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann, quickly dismiss concerns by saying it is merely a growing El Niño on top of a steady human-caused warming increase.

Other climate scientists, including U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration oceanographer Gregory C. Johnson, say the sudden warming doesn’t appear to be caused solely by El Niño. There are several marine heat waves or ocean warming spots that don’t fit an El Niño pattern, such as those in the northern Pacific near Alaska and off the coast of Spain, he said.

“This is an unusual pattern. This is an extreme event at a global scale” in areas that don’t fit with merely an El Niño, said Princeton University climate scientist Gabe Vecchi. “That is a huge, huge signal. I think it’s going to take some level of effort to understand it.”

It’s been about seven years since the last El Niño, and it was a whopper. The world has warmed in that seven years, especially the deeper ocean, which absorbs by far most of the heat energy from greenhouse gases, said Sarah Purkey, an oceanographer at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography. The ocean heat content, which measures the energy stored by the deep ocean, sets new record highs each year regardless of what’s happening on the surface.

Since that last El Niño, the global heat ocean content has increased .04°C (.07°F). That may not sound like a lot, but “it’s actually a tremendous amount of energy,” Purkey said. It’s about 30 to 40 zettajoules of heat, which is the energy equivalent of hundreds of millions of atomic bombs the size that leveled Hiroshima, she said.

On top of that warming deep ocean, the world had unusual cooling on the surface from La Niña for three years that sort of acted like a lid on a warming pot, scientists said. That lid is off.

“La Niña’s temporary grip on rising global temperatures has been released,” NOAA oceanographer Mike McPhaden told AP in an email. “One result is that March 2023 was the second-highest March on record for global mean surface temperatures.”

If El Niño makes its heavily-forecasted appearance later this year, “what we are seeing now is just a prelude to more records that are in the pipeline,” McPhaden wrote.

Karnauskas said what’s likely to happen will be an “acceleration” of warming after the heat has been hidden for a few years.

---

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”

-rc 05112023

Personal note: I spend over $1200 a year on subscriptions and getting “paywall” access to scientific articles. If you want to help me cover that cost, I will do my best to keep bringing you analysis based on the latest science.