The Crisis Report - 26

The Third American Civil War is getting hotter. The Trumpublican States push to ban "Abortion Pills" nationally, signals their endgame strategy.

So,

If you are reading my articles you know that I don't take things at face value. I know that many people make that claim, and then go on to waste your time with bullshit uninformed opinion. That’s the DIFFERENCE between OPINIONS and ANALYSIS.

Everybody has opinions, Informed People provide analysis. There’s a difference.

Now, I am telling you that I am an “Informed Person” on a variety of topics. That’s MY OPINION. It may or may not be objectively true.

That's for you to decide. That's your JOB as the reader.

I am presenting you with analysis and YOU DECIDE if it seems like a credible explanation for the fact pattern presented. I am not just telling you “what’s happening”. That's what reporters do.

I am telling you what I think it means. How “things” that happen, fit into the bigger picture. What's going on in the metaphorical forest.

PERSONAL NOTE

I am AUTISTIC. Part of that is synesthesia. I experience text in my head very differently than most people. Words are in colors, sizes, and shapes. They pulse and move. Glow and blaze.

Stack

like blocks

Building Ideas Literally.

Sometimes they are snowflakes, sometime clouds, sometime a swarm like bees.

I spent my life cleaning up my text for other people. I’m retired. Deal with it.

END NOTE

I think that America is in a functional state of CIVIL WAR.

It’s easy to miss that it's happening, because there is a surface level of normalcy. Because there is so much social inertia in a country as large and spread out as the US. Here's what's happening in TRUMPUBLICAN controlled states.

FLORIDA- Banning books in schools, making “open carry” the social norm, stacking the courts. Removing ELECTED city officials who don’t follow STATE Mandates in what is a nullification of elections that Democrats win. Outlawing Abortion. Making voting for MINORITIES HARDER. Making Trumpublican Officials responsible for deciding “which votes matter” in 24’. Setting up “Brownshirt” Citizens Election Security Militias.

TEXAS - Banning books in schools, making “open carry” the social norm, stacking the courts. Removing mention of Climate Change in textbooks. Seizing control of Houston School District. Removing ELECTED city officials who don’t follow STATE Mandates in what is a nullification of elections that Democrats win. Outlawing Abortion. Making voting for MINORITIES HARDER. Making Trumpublican Officials responsible for deciding “which votes matter” in 24’. Setting up “Brownshirt” Citizens Election Security Militias.

Texas and Florida are the 2nd and 3rd LARGEST STATES in the US. This is NOT the political “fringe”.

The same dynamic is working across the “Trump Nation”.

States like Idaho now have ZERO women’s health clinics. The state’s COMPLETE ban on abortion was blocked by a Federal Judge until the issue is decided by the Supreme Court. However, the judge (a Trump judge) let stand almost all of the restrictions on the procedure.

Which means it can only be performed in extreme cases by emergency room doctors when necessary to stabilize the health of women facing medical emergencies. That's the ONLY exception.

Which technically means, Women still have some rights in Idaho. At least for now.

The Idaho “State Guide to Abortion” wants you to know that they aren't evil. While they emphasize Abortion is completely banned in Idaho because of a new law that went into effect August 25, 2022. They helpfully remind women.

It is legal to travel out of state to get an abortion.

FOR NOW.

Because they really don’t think women who “might be pregnant”, and try to leave the Idaho “Handmaids Tale” patriarchal utopia to “murder their baby”, should be allowed to travel.

“Does that child in the womb have the right to travel in their future? Do they get to live?”

“There’s a child in this conversation as well. It's not just about the woman's right’s.”

US Senator from Oklahoma - James Lankford

Abortion-Travel Bans Are `Next Frontier’ With Roe Set to Topple

Bloomberg Law.Com, May 2022

Antiabortion lawmakers want to block patients from crossing state lines.

Washington Post, June 2022

Here's the WEIRD part politically. The Dobbs Ruling was a DISASTER for the TRUMPUBLICAN PARTY. It KILLED them. They have NO FUTURE past 2030 in any kind of “fair” elections.

2022 was a Sea Change Election. The Republican Party is Doomed.

Notice how the 18–29 year old vote broke?

Elections come in basically two flavors, “Sea Change” and “Turnout”.

Sea Change elections are rare. They almost never happen. Because they are the social equivalent of a “Road to Damascus” conversion moment.

Turnout Elections are what we usually have.

Those are about “who shows up”, and “who stays home”. That sounds obvious, but the difference between those two things is highly significant.

If people aren’t showing up because voting is difficult, you can do something about it. You can increase turnout.

If people are staying home and deliberately not voting, they are sending you a message. They are punishing you.

Let me give you an historical example to illustrate the difference between a sea change and a turnout election.

1968 was a TURNOUT election. 1972 was a SEA CHANGE election.

Nixon won in 68' and 72' but only one of the two was about him.

So, in 1968 Bobby Kennedy got assassinated. He had been the front runner for the Democratic ticket to replace the retiring LBJ. His death split the Democratic party.

The Older Establishment faction wanted Hubert Humphrey. He was Johnson’s VP, a solid party man, and a decent politician. He would be continuity with the FDR ideas and policies that had been the foundation of the Democratic Party since the 30's.

The Young Progressive faction had been leaning towards Kennedy. Upon his death they rallied around “Clean Gene” McCarthy, the “Bernie Saunders” of the party at that time. His criticism of the LBJ Administration on its Vietnam policies had been extremely caustic and he was against the war.

White Southern Democrats, the “law and order” faction of the party rallied around George Wallace. The former Democratic governor of Alabama and an open segregationist, Wallace represented the “Old Democratic Party” of the segregationist South.

At the convention, the Party gave the nomination to Humphrey. Even though he had run in no primaries the “insider” vote gave him the delegates he needed.

McCarthy told supporters he could not endorse the nominee. Wallace ran as an “Independent”.

A lot of young progressive voters stayed home in November and didn’t vote. They wanted to punish the Party and they wanted Humphrey to lose.

Nixon won the popular vote by less than one point, but carried most of the states outside the Northeast. Comfortably winning the electoral vote. Former Alabama Governor George Wallace, head of the American Independent Party, took 13.5% of the popular vote, and won the electoral votes of the Deep South.

1968 was a TURNOUT election. Even with Wallace peeling off 13.5% of the WHITE Southern vote, Nixon won the popular vote by only one point. Young Progressive Democrats didn’t turn out for Humphrey and it was enough to give Nixon a narrow victory.

1972 Was a Sea Change Election.

Nixon won decisively.

After the debacle in 1968 the Democratic Party was reformed to reduce the power of the party officials (the Machine). Primaries were emphasized for their more transparent, open nature. The Progressives used the concessions they got after 68' to make a playing field that a Progressive Democrat could have a chance on.

Young Progressives insisted that the country wanted a “Real Change”.

They worked hard and swamped the expanded state primaries. They got the candidate of their choice. They got George McGovern. McGovern was definitely a “change” candidate.

McGovern ran on a platform of immediately ending the Vietnam War and instituting guaranteed minimum incomes for the nation’s poor.

Nixon won the election, with a 23.2% margin of victory in the popular vote. The fourth largest percentage margin in presidential election history. He received almost 18 million more popular votes than McGovern. The widest margin in the number of voters in ANY U.S. presidential election.

In 1972, a whole generation of young WHITE voters rejected the FDR Democratic party allegiance of their parents and grandparents and became Republicans. 1972 was a SEA CHANGE election.

The consequences of this realignment were profound.

Between 1968 and 2008, the Republicans held the Presidency 28 out of 40 years.

If it had not been for Watergate and Ross Perot, they would have had a clean sweep.

Sea Change elections are consequential.

2022 was a Sea Change Election. The Republican Party is Doomed.

The Supreme Court doomed the Republican party with the Dobbs decision. The graph above shows you why.

Women 18–29 voted Democratic by a 73% margin.

Women 30–44 voted Democratic by a 57% margin.

In 20 years, those women will be the dominant political force in America. This graph tells you they will most emphatically, NOT be voting Republican.

Abortion REALLY MATTERED politically. This is true cost of Dobbs to the Republicans. This is DEATH staring them in the face.

Voters choose their party affiliation in their 20’s and early 30’s. When a generation gets radicalized heavily against one party like this. They tend to vote against it for the rest of their life.

As the number of women over 65 declines (a bigger voting pool than men over 65 BTW) the effect of this polarization will become increasingly pronounced. In 10 years it will be extremely difficult for a Republican to get elected in a national election. In 15 years it will be impossible for a Republican to get elected anywhere, for anything except in the most WHITE states and counties.

The Supreme Court “gut-shot” the Republican party’s future with Dobbs. No matter what they win now, they are bleeding out.

However, right now, the Trumpublicans are still strong. Right now, they are at their peak. Right now, they are EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

Because the only way forward for them. Is taking away Women's Right to Vote.

Every “Green peak” is a city. Just over 51% of Americans live in cities. About 60% of the US GDP is generated in those cities. ALL OF THEM ARE DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLDS.

Notice how the counties split between Urban Democratic voters and Rural Trumpublican voters. Politically rural voters have outsized influence in Statehouses the same way low population WHITE enclave states like Alaska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Nebraska have in the US Senate. They get 12 Senators but represent only about 2% of the US population.

Dots are placed randomly within each census tract — small geographic areas that typically contain between 1,200 to 8,000 people — to represent population density and racial makeup. Rural America is WHITE America and they vote TRUMPUBLICAN. 2 out of 3 WHITE Americans votes Trumpublican they make up 86% of the Trumpublican Party.

In non-gerrymandered “uncorrupt” elections, Texas would be controlled by Democrats.

Notice which counties are losing population. Rural WHITE America is literally dying as the Boomer generation begins to fade.

These maps make graphically clear the battle lines in American politics and the existential threats facing the Trumpublican Nation. The question is, “How do they hold on to power?”

Just suppressing the “Black and Brown” vote won't be enough. Gen Z is “majority minority”. Plus, the majority of White Women probably aren’t going to vote Trumpublican once the Boomer Women die off. The only way forward for them to be able to “win” elections is going to be to find a way to restrict the vote to just White Men and “Reliable” White Women.

Which brings us back to Roe and the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion.

This ruling wasn’t just about abortion, it’s also about voting. Specifically it’s about taking away the right to vote from women who aren’t voting Trumpublican and forcing rural White Girls to have more White babies.

Lauren Boebert praises high rural teen birth rates while announcing first grandchild.

The Hill - March 29, 2023

“There’s something special about rural conservative communities — they value life. If you look at teen pregnancy rates throughout the nation, well, they’re the same in rural and urban areas. However, abortion rates are higher in urban areas, and teen mom rates are higher in rural, conservative areas because we understand the preciousness of the life that is about to be born,” - Lauren Boebert

Women are not united on this issue.

I know it sounds insane but I was there in the 70’s when the anti-ERA, anti-feminism backlash started. Lots and lots of women, particularly White Evangelical women do not support the right to abortion.

They believe women shouldn’t be having sex outside of marriage. FULL STOP, NO EXCEPTIONS. If you do, and get pregnant. You should be punished for being a slut and have to bear lifelong consequences for not keeping your knees closed and your “flower” intact.

It’s the same weird thinking you sometimes hear from women who support mandatory burka wearing, or female genital mutilation. The idea that women have to suppress their sexuality because men cannot control themselves.

These women argue that this suppression liberates them instead of enslaving them. In the US Evangelical Women vote for it, in big numbers.

The ABORTION ISSUE isn’t just a story about “evil men” doing this to helpless women. Women make up 52% of the US population. If they were united on this issue, abortion would be a constitutional right.

This goes back to the fact that 2 out of 3 White Americans votes Trumpublican (most “Independents” vote Trumpublican, they just don’t want to admit it socially). For a lot of them this is a racial issue.

The part they don’t say loudly is that this is about White babies.

Think about this, in the last year of the Trump Administration clusterfuck it came out that women were being sterilized in ICE detention centers. Without their knowledge or consent.

Dozens Of Women Allege Unwanted Surgeries And Medical Abuse In ICE Custody

ICE, A Whistleblower And Forced Sterilization

No one was prosecuted for this crime against humanity. In the alt-Right media space there was actually applause for this crime.

“How else are you going to keep them from coming back and dropping an anchor baby?”

Was the common viewpoint. The more nuanced Trumpublican argument was;

“It’s their own fault. They broke the law coming here and we have the right to preserve our sovereign integrity. If you are going to give citizenship to every baby born on US soil then you have to disincentivize all these brown women from coming here to drop a baby and game the system.”

They don’t care about saving babies. They care about there being more White babies and they care about taking away the vote from women who vote Democratic.

What Dobbs did, is give them a way of criminalizing Black, Latina, and Liberal White women.

Just like criminalizing Black men has resulted in 20% of them being stripped of the right to vote. This gives them massive opportunities to criminalize women.

Taking away their right to vote.

Consider this. There is no statute of limitations for murder. The Germans just sent a 102 yo Nazi death camp guard to prison. Murder hangs over you your whole life.

If abortion is “murder”, legally every woman who has ever gotten an abortion is a “murderer”. The fact that they were told it was legal doesn’t change that.

The death camp guard was told it was legal for him to kill people in the camps. At that time, it was legal. However, “I was just following orders” has been rejected as a legal defense again and again.

Just because abortion was legal when you got one, doesn’t shield you if it becomes murder.

If you “knew it was wrong” at the time you did it. In the eyes of the Law, you committed murder, it doesn’t matter if it was legal or not.

There is no statute of limitations on murder.

Murderers also cannot flee to another state to escape prosecution. They get arrested and extradited.

GOP senator blocks bill to protect interstate travel for abortion

Asks “Does that child in the womb have the right to travel in their future?” Lankford said in objecting. “Do they get to live?”

“There’s a child in this conversation as well,” he added.

See where this is going?

The Evangelical Christians are “Culture Warriors”. Many of them think the “End Times” are nigh and that they are going to have to go to war with the “Demoncrats”. They are arming themselves and trying to purify their populations.

They think abortion is a sin. The rest of the Trumpublican’s are going along with this because it gives them a big club to use. They can criminalize any woman they want to, taking away her right to vote.

The shape of the “New America” the Trumpublicans are working towards is becoming more clear.

They won’t stop holding elections, that would be un-American. But only the “Whitest” most reliable parts of the population will get the privilege of voting. Because letting “criminals” vote is just crazy.

The appearance of Democracy without actually being a democracy. White minority rule forever.

That’s what’s coming if they win in 24'. That's their ENDGAME GOAL. It's the only way they can hold onto power.

Don’t count on the Supreme Court to stop it. They are helping the Trumpublicans make it possible.

If the Supreme Court rules, like it did in 2000, that a Trumpublican has “won” a contested election. The military is probably not going to fracture. They will probably obey the lawful, legitimate Trumpublican civilian authority.

Who will then really get to work to make sure that Trumpublicans never lose another election again. Ever.

Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels speaks at a rally on 26 October in Waukeshan stated that if he was elected he would “fix” the states election system to make sure Republicans never lose another election again.

Republicans say their party ‘will never lose another election’ if they win. They will fix the voting system to make sure of it.

DEMOCRATS IN 24’.

VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT.

It might be the last time you get the chance.

Any questions?

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

-rc 03182023