The Crisis Report - 12
Things are coming to a head. Let’s talk about that.
How much has the earth warmed up since the “preindustrial era”?
Here’s what NASA/GISS/NOAA state. This first bit is meaningless.
“This warming trend is alarming,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.
Wow, Mr. Nelson finds Global Warming of 1.1C and the increasing rate of warming to be “alarming”. Not a “Crisis”, which is how the UN Sec. General and the US President described it last November. Just “alarming”.
Mr. Nelson is beginning to be concerned but he’s not prepared to say that the situation is “urgent”. He’s certainly not ready to call it a “crisis”.
“Our warming climate is already making a mark: Forest fires are intensifying; hurricanes are getting stronger; droughts are wreaking havoc and sea levels are rising. NASA is deepening our commitment to do our part in addressing climate change. Our Earth System Observatory will provide state-of-the-art data to support our climate modeling, analysis and predictions to help humanity confront our planet’s changing climate.”
This restates the obvious. We have all seen these things with our own eyes. He has to acknowledge that he sees the problems and understands why people are “alarmed”. This is designed to reassure you and calm you.
NASA is aware of what’s happening. They are “watching” and are going to give you state-of-the-art analysis and predictions.
You can TRUST NASA is the message Mr. Nelson is communicating.
Now here’s the meaningful part, what does it say to you?
Earth’s average surface temperature in 2022 tied with 2015 as the fifth warmest on record, according to an analysis by NASA.
This is an odd way to phrase this. It creates an impression that 2022 wasn’t that hot. It tied with 2015 as “fifth warmest”. Other than that it gives you no context.
Here's another way to look at 2022.
Despite an intense three year La Nina event, 2022 was still above the 1.0C warming level. As every year since 2014 has been.
Which of these two statements creates an impression that the global temperature goes up and down. That Global Warming in 2022 isn’t any worse than it was in 2015. NASA’s statement is subtly misleading. It minimizes the current situation.
Then you have these two statements.
The past nine years have been the warmest years since modern record keeping began in 1880. (Notice how the baseline for measuring Global Warming has become 1880, it used to be 1850).
This means Earth in 2022 was about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.11 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century average.
THERE IT IS, THE “OFFICIAL NUMBER”. GLOBAL WARMING IS AT 1.1C*
*Since 1880, when “modern” record keeping began.
You should notice something important about the second graph. It’s calibrated to the 1951–1981 baseline. That’s what the “zero line” represents. The NASA graph is calibrated to a 1880–1899 averaged temperature as its “zero line”.
When looking at a Global Warming graph, every detail is important.
Check the calibration. This graph is measuring warming against a 1891–2010 temperature average!
None of these graphs is comparing “apples to apples” visually. If you dig into them you can understand how they are all basically saying the same thing. But, each of them is presenting “Global Warming” in a different way and some of the ways are misleading.
So, Global Warming is 1.1C for 2022. NASA/GISS/NOAA says so and that’s that.
If you question the number, you are “a crank” and “a Doomer”. If you question the number, no one will listen to you, or take you seriously.
Because I’m telling you that NASA is lying to us. I’m telling you that the 1.1C number is a lie.
I know, I use this chart a lot. It’s a good chart, it lays everything out clearly and concisely. Now, see the grey bar on the left, “Observable Warming”. The 1.1C NASA is reporting as the number for the amount of Global Warming is the same as the amount of “Observable Warming” in the chart.
When NASA/GISS/NOAA are saying that Global Warming is 1.1C this year that’s strictly true. But, it’s also a lie because they know that there is as much as 0.9C of “masked warming” in the climate system. Those “whisker lines” on the two red bars say that we may have warmed up the planet as much as 2C already.
We just aren’t feeling all of that heat because we have been geoengineering the Earth’s climate system since we started the Industrial Revolution. We have been artificially cooling the planet down for a long time and we think by a pretty big amount.
NASA knows this. They aren’t saying it though. Nowhere in this years report on the 2022 climate do they say one word about “masked warming” or the inherently low nature of “Observable Warming”. They don’t even use the term “Observable Warming”.
NASA is not telling us “the whole story”. They are giving us part of the story and counting on most of us not noticing the difference between the two. They have tremendous credibility and enjoy a high level of trust among the public. If you question that, people stop listening to you seriously.
During my recent “unplugged vacation” I gave some presentations on the Climate Crisis to a few groups.
I wanted to try evangelizing people on the developing Climate Crisis face to face. So, I engaged people and started dialogs.
I presented facts, I had a compelling narrative, I had graphics and supporting documentation.
I convinced, no one.
Even the people who listened always got to the point where they basically said,
“I just cannot take you seriously, if it was really this serious someone important would say something. You’re a nobody. I cannot believe you know more than legitimate government officials.”
Which is a polite way of saying you’re a “crazy doomer” and please stop talking to me.
No one wants to change how they live. No one wants to give up anything. No one wants to take action until it is 110% “beyond a shadow of a doubt” certain they have to.
No one is going to believe me over NASA. No one is going to accept NASA is lying to them and misleading them about the seriousness of Global Warming. The 99% are still putting their faith in the “Legitimate Voices”.
If you have been reading my stuff for awhile you know I have been trying to “evangelize” people with the “New Climate Paradigm”. I have been writing on Medium for about 2 years now.
Even though my “Followers” count is now over 1000, I have the feeling that the people who agree with me. Are doing so because I am validating what they already felt to be true.
I quantify and give a framework to what they suspected and felt, I’m not “winning converts”.
Plus, some of my most loyal readers are on the fence about my forecasts and analysis. I have come across a number of them having “Is Reece Crazy?” conversations with other Climate Writers about me.
FYI — that’s a reference to the movie Terminator. I use a LOT of science fiction references in my articles.
If the most informed people possible on Climate Change, still aren’t convinced of the SCREAMING urgency of the crisis. I just don’t think it’s possible to “wake” the average person up on this.
No one wants to believe it’s happening. Right here, right now.
No matter how convincing you are, if you aren’t a “Legitimate Voice” they believe. People aren’t going to accept the awful truths driving the reality they are experiencing.
They are going to keep hoping that this be won’t be as bad as “the Alarmists and Doomers” are saying. That reality will be somewhere in the middle between the Deniers and the Doomers.
That’s a problem for all of us.
The disinformation and misdirection campaigns of the Fossil Fuel Elites have been very successful. They have managed to prevent a political consensus from forming around a transition to a sustainable future.
Exxon scientists in the 1970s accurately predicted climate change
Analysis of internal climate projections shows Exxon scientists knew the harm of burning fossil fuels, while firm’s executives played down the risk
Revealed: Exxon made ‘breathtakingly’ accurate climate predictions in 1970s and 80s
Oil company drove some of the leading science of the era only to publicly dismiss global heating
Exxon’s Climate Denial History: A Timeline
A review of Exxon’s knowledge and subsequent denial of climate change.
Exxon disputed climate findings for years. Its scientists knew better.
Research shows that company modeled and predicted global warming with ‘shocking skill and accuracy’ starting in the 1970s
It’s extremely revealing that at this late date, not one government in the world is controlled by a “Green” party. Not one.
What I see in the ‘chatter’ around this issue is that they have decided on their “new” strategy. Unsurprisingly it’s “full speed ahead” and FUSION will save us.
FYI — This only works if we get cheap and easy fusion power. That’s what the Fossil Fuel Elites will be betting all of our futures on.
The Elites and their intermediaries in the various world governments like this option a lot. They think everyone will like it.
Because it means no one has to make any sacrifices. No one has to do anything, no one has to give up anything, nothing has to change.
Fusion will give us UNLIMITED clean energy. It will usher in an era of peace and plenty. Every problem we have is solvable if we have unlimited clean energy. Once we have FUSION we can fix everything and all live in a “Star Trek Federation” utopia.
We are going to hear a whole bunch about how close we are to fusion power and unlimited energy over the next few years.
Know what, most people are going to agree with them. Because NO ONE likes option two. No one likes the idea of starting deliberate degrowth and reallocation of resources. No one wants to give up travel, owning a car, cheap consumer goods, cheap food, and electric toys.
Even when people start admitting that there is a serious problem. That things are WAY past “alarming”. They will still be inclined to hope for a miracle “technology save”. This is the choice of the “Hope-ium” crowd. The Techo-Optimists, or Wizards.
I’m not a “Legitimate Voice”. I represent no agency, government, organization, or company. When I write, it's just me, and right now I am out on the fringe.
Right now, what I’m saying sounds crazy and extreme. I think that’s going to change rapidly.
But hey, I’m not a “Climate Scientist” why should you listen to me?
I am a “Doomer” after all.
Going forward, having a source you trust on the Climate Crisis is going to be important. Maybe even “Life or Death” important. Things are starting to happen really fast now.
So, I’m going to tell you about myself. Because, if I’m asking you to take me seriously, you have the right to know who you are listening to.
I’m not a huge “sharer” about myself but I have written a few things.
Personal Thoughts is mostly about my 4th Wife and the last few years. I recently wrote about my mental state Personal Notes — 08 : I’m having a lot of Synesthesia the last few months.
Cooking While Autistic has some personal stuff as well. Surprise, I can cook.
One of my great passions is Mesoamerican archeology. I write on that in The Archeotourist.
I am Autistic. I have written about my childhood here, My Autistic Life.
Random Thoughts — 02 : Imagine there’s no Heaven has a lot of personal stuff about me.
Random Thoughts — 06 is about my personal “memory palace”. The place I live when I’m in my head. My retreat from the world. Warning, it’s poetry.
Random Thoughts — 10 : Exhibits in an Atrocity Museum has a lot of personal stuff in it as well.
There is personal stuff in my comments to people. I have written just over 100 articles. I have written thousands of comments. I am trying to group the better ones here.
I have a “disclaimer” that I have included in some of my articles but here’s a friendlier version of it.
I double majored in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at UC Berkeley in the 70’s. I have a Doctorate in Anthropology as my ‘hobby” degree that I got in the 90’s while I was employed by the NSA.
I was a Navy Seal in the 70’s and 80’s (NROTC scholarship to Berkeley). My MOS was EOD. I just don’t advertise that I used to get paid to travel the world and engage in state sanctioned murder. I have very mixed feelings about what I did “in your name”.
A serious injury that shattered half my face and resulted in a Traumatic Brain Injury ended that career. I am “less than” I was. I lost my gifts for languages and mathematics. I considered ending myself. It was a dark period for me.
Some friends got me a job and I worked for the NSA in DC for a few years writing “threat assessments” and briefing papers. To fill the time and to “rehab” my brain I got a PhD in Anthropology. After a slight disagreement with my employers about the classification of my dissertation I soured on government work and went “home” to San Francisco.
Where I made a bunch of money in the Dot.Com days. Providing IT support and Project Management services to startups. I have seen it all when it comes to the tech industry.
Including going back to the beginning in the 70's.
I knew Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. I talked to both of them several times in the 70’s before they were famous. When they were still showing things off at the Homebrew Computer Group.
It was no big deal. Historically the Bay Area in the 70’s was the right place at the right time to meet a bunch of people who would go on to be famous or rich. I have friends from Berkeley who became very rich in the tech industry. Some of them even have yachts and sail to Tahiti for Christmas.
I have been married 4 times. I have no children. I have no immediate family. My sister died of an overdose in Seattle in the 80’s and my brother killed himself after shooting his ex-wife and their 2 kids in the 90's. My parents are deceased.
Here is a partial list of sources I pay attention to:
Washington Post
New York Times
Guardian
The Hill
Politico
Wall Street Journal
USA Today
The New Yorker
The Conversation
FOX
CNN
MSNBC
Bloomberg
Al Jazzera
BBC International
News Max
Scientific American
National Geographic
Foreign Affairs Magazine
Discover Magazine
Military History Magazine
Ancient Military History Magazine
Paul Krugman’s column
Heated newsletter on Climate issues
Archeology Magazine
Pro Publica
Reuters
Five Thirty Eight newsletter
Inside Climate News newsletter
Climate Nexus newsletter
STAT newsletter (medical news)
VOX Sentences, newsletter
AAAS Science Daily Report newsletter
Outbreak Watch (epidemiology newsletter)
Nature Briefing, newsletter
Archeologia (Spanish magazine on Mesoamerican archeology)
CDC M&M reports
Earth Sky News (astronomy newsletter)
Medium articles
…..
I could go on. Plus I read about 50-75 books a year on basically anything that catches my attention.
I don’t do social media. For reasons of my own I never have. There are other good reasons why everyone should think carefully about what they share on the internet.
This is going to be Bad Ep. 13
For completeness sake here is my standard disclaimer.
DISCLAIMER:
I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:
I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.
The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.
Back in the early 90’s I did National Security level analysis and threat assessment reports for a few years. My professional degree is a double major in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, but it is from the 70’s and has only minor relevance to the world today.
I also have a “hobby” degree in Anthropology and a passion for Mesoamerican archeology (see my Tumblr blog if you are interested, The Archeotourist — Mesoamerica). None of which makes me an “expert” on climate science.
The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles here on Medium, is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.
You have been warned.
In Conclusion.
I am currently writing a set of articles outlining the “shape” of the Crisis. The different parts that are influencing each other as they orbit together in an accelerating contracting spiral. The Crisis has a lot of parts but looming over everything is the Climate Crisis.
I’m going to be writing about that a lot this year.
I think it’s important that EVERYONE GLOBALLY understands what’s happening. Why it happened. What the options are going forward. That we make a decision together about what we want to do.
Because if we don’t do this all together. We will all burn, together.
We have the technology to make the discussion open to everyone in the world to see. No secret deals. No hidden agreements and compromises. A truly Global discussion where everyone’s voices could be heard and witnessed.
If we don’t understand what’s happening. The Elites are going to keep lying and misdirecting everyone as they loot the economies of the globe. They are currently draining wealth out of the US economy at an unsustainable rate.
They think that they are going to be able to “fort up” and ride out what’s coming. They talk about how Climate Change might have killed half the population of Rome and caused a collapse of the central government but business and trade never stopped.
This decade is our last chance at doing a “managed retreat” and holding on to “Technic Civilization”. If we piss this decade away on Hope-ium pipe dreams sold to us by Disney. Then Collapse happens very quickly after that.
Because here’s what Dr. James Hansen and others state.
Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone — after slow feedbacks operate — is about 10°C.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 Hansen’s latest “Global Warming in the pipeline” study.
It's time for us to grow up.
This is the final “personal” thing I’m going to share with you today. Make of it what you will.
My private email address has three roots. It's a pun about a poem by my favorite poet (Blake), it speaks to my interest in Mesoamerican archeology, and it references one of my favorite books “The Stars My Destination” (Bester). I tell you this because we have reached the moment of decision in a way that's similar to the book.
In the book, the hero takes a technology that could kill everyone and he gives it to Everyone. He gives it to “the little people” the nameless ones never remembered in histories'. He tells them,
“This is PyRE, and it’s DEATH for us all. Make them tell you what it does, make them tell you how it works, make them tell you who they want to kill ‘in your name’ with it. No more Star Chambers, no more secrets, no more lies. Make them tell you and grow up, it's time for us to stop being children.”
Gully Foyle is my name,
And Terra is my nation.
Deep space is my dwelling place,
The stars my destination.
This is what I see.
This is my analysis.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
-rc
If you want to read more of my climate articles.
Click here for my “Living in Bomb Time” Series.
For the other Crisis Reports.
Click here for my “Crisis Report” Series.
For a collection of great articles from writers sharing their accounts from the front lines of a Changing World.
Click here for “Reports From the Front”.
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Well this is it. This was the LAST free post. After that, it’s subscribers only, with occasional free postings.
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Shameless “name dropping”.
BTW - Jessica Wildflower follows me on Medium. She has for about a year now. She reads my stuff, claps, and writes comments on it. If that “legitimates” me in some way to you. I’ll take it.
Content is free, informed analysis is expensive.
This has been true since the dawn of time. Experts get paid for their expertise because “being informed” about a topic comes at a cost. It takes time, a lot of it, to know what you are talking about.
If you haven’t been staying current on the Climate Crisis a LOT is happening right now. What’s happening right now, and in the next few year’s will shape how the rest of your life plays out.
We are in the final days of the 20th Century Climate Optimum. What’s coming is MUCH WORSE than you think. Our understanding of the Climate System has gotten dramatically better in the last ten years. We have been monumentally stupid.
If you want to understand the “Climate Crisis” this is analysis you are not going to get anywhere else.