The Crisis Report - 110

The die has ALREADY been cast.

Fig. 1. Earth’s albedo (reflectivity, in percent), seasonality removed. From Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity 2025

Since 2000 the Earth’s ALBEDO has decreased by about -0.6%. Most of the decrease (-0.5%) happened since 2014.

The ALBEDO is a measure of how much of the incoming short wave ENERGY from the Sun is “reflected away” back into space instead of going into the Climate System.

On average, about 30% of the sunlight that hits the Earth bounces back into space.

The planetary albedo helps determine the Earth’s average temperature. If the albedo rises (meaning that more light gets reflected back to space), all other things staying equal, our planet gets cooler. If the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.

Here’s the bad news: the Earth’s albedo has been declining during the last 20 years. BY A LOT, although it seems like a small amount.

Here’s what James Hansen stated in his post, Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity 2025 — May, 2025

Earth’s albedo (or reflectivity) is the portion (percent) of incoming solar radiation that is reflected back to space. As shown in Fig. 1, in the period of precise satellite data (since early 2000), Earth’s albedo has decreased about 0.5%.

We described this change as a BFD (Big Fucking Deal) because it has staggering implications. Solar radiation reaching Earth is about 340 W/m2, averaged over Earth’s surface, so the 0.5% albedo decrease is a 1.7 W/m increase of absorbed solar energy.

A +1.7 W/m2 increase of absorbed solar energy is huge. If it were a climate forcing, it would be equivalent to a CO2 increase of +138 ppm. — James Hansen

It’s LIKE ADDING +138ppm OF CO2e to the atmosphere SINCE 2014.

+138ppmCO2e in JUST 11 YEARS.

For context:

This chart shows the Rate of CO2 Change per 1,000 year increment. Over the last 800,000 years CO2 generally changed less than 20ppm PER THOUSAND YEARS.

That's about 7,000 years of “normal” CO2 increase IN JUST 11 YEARS.

See the nearly vertical spikes of the interglacial warming episodes, those represent about 7,000 years at this scale. Also note that increases in CO2 “lead” increases in temperature. Increases in CO2 cause increases in temperature.

That's “how significant” this change in the planetary albedo is. It massively accelerates and amplifies the warming caused by increases in CO2 and CH4.

If this change happened by itself, that sudden JOLT of ENERGY into the Climate System would be bad enough. However, there are several other factors that are also making things worse.

Our CO2 emissions have increased the atmospheric CO2 level by +58ppm since 2000.

The CO2 level for March 2025 was 428.15ppmCO2.

That’s 3,000 years of “normal” interglacial CO2 increases. In just 25 years.

It took 150 years (1850–2000) to increase the CO2 level by +90ppm (280ppm to 370ppm).

Between 2000 and 2025 we increased the CO2 level by about 2/3rds of that amount (+58ppm).

At the present rate of increase (+3ppm/year), we will finish the second +90ppm in about 10 more years.

280ppm to 370ppm = 150 years.

370ppm to 460ppm = 35 years.

That's a +400% increase in the rate of CO2 increase.

The atmospheric CO2e level has increased by about +196ppmCO2e since 2000 from just CO2 emissions and a dimming albedo. Just those two things increase the CO2e level to around +570ppmCO2e.

In addition to that there is the rising level of atmospheric CH4 or methane.

For the last 800ky the CH4 level has not gotten higher than about 750ppm.

Since 1850 the level of atmospheric CH4 has increased from 800ppb to over 1900ppb. Since 2000 the increase has been about +175ppb.

The current level of CH4 adds the equivalent of about +100ppm of CO2e to the atmosphere.

Which puts the CO2e level from CO2 emissions, the dimming albedo, and the massively elevated CH4 level at around +670ppmCO2e.

Which, according to the paleoclimate record, indicates about +7°C to +8°C (+14.5°F) of warming over our 1850 baseline.

NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NOW — THESE THINGS HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED.

These things are facts and they have CONSEQUENCES.

Now.

You can argue about the exact CO2 equivalence of 1900ppb CH4. Should it be 100ppmCO2e, or 75ppmCO2e, or 125CO2e?

You cannot argue the methane concentration is not higher than it has been in millions of years.

Food for thought:

The peaks here correspond to warm interglacial periods and the troughs to ice age lows in temperature. At this scale the peaks represent thousands of years. The implication is that the CH4 level is generally tightly coupled to the CO2 level, ie. when CO2 levels rise, CH4 levels rise and boost the effect of the CO2. CH4 levels then seem to stay at elevated levels in lockstep with CO2 levels. Meaning, that this +1900ppb level of CH4 may be a “new normal” and may not decline for thousands of years.

You can argue about the exact amount of change in the Earth’s Albedo and whether or not it’s due to “natural variation”.

This graph shows the downward trend in Earth’s albedo, as measured by earthshine (black) and CERES data (blue) in watts per square meter. Image credit: Goode et al. (2021), Geophysical Research Letters. In this graph, the NASA CERES data goes out to 2019. They show a decline of 1.8W/m2 in the planetary albedo level from 2000 to 2019 (red circle). From: Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021

You can argue about WHY the albedo has dimmed over the last 25 years. Is it about cooling SOx aerosols being washed out of the atmosphere as we stop burning high sulfur coal and oil or is it about a decline in the global amount of cloudiness?

Fig. 2. Inferred contributions to reduced Earth albedo. Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity. — James Hansen 05/28/25. Hansen thinks about 2/3rds of the albedo decline is due to changes in cloud cover.

You cannot argue that the albedo has not dimmed or that after 10 years (2014–2024) this dimming seems persistent, stable, and has TRIPLED the amount of ENERGY going into the Climate System since 2010.

Fig. 1. Earth’s albedo (reflectivity, in percent), seasonality removed. From Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity 2025. This is from the NASA CERES observations. Everyone agrees on these numbers.

You can argue about the significance of increasing the atmospheric concentration of CO2 by +58ppm since 2020. Will going from 370ppm to 425ppm increase the Global Mean Surface Temperature just the +1.5°C we have observed so far, or will it raise the GMST the +4°C over baseline that the paleoclimate record and the Alarmist models indicate?

The last time CO2 levels were this high the GMST was about +4°C (+7.2°F) warmer. Do you think the +1.5°C of warming we have seen so far will be ALL the warming? Or, do you think warming will continue until it reaches the level indicated by the paleoclimate record?

What you cannot argue with is that CO2 levels have increased by +58ppm since 2000.

For the last three years the yearly increase has been about +3ppm PER YEAR.

These things are FACTS and we cannot change them now no matter what we do, or say, or pledge to do in the future. The DIE is cast now and these things will shape the planetary climate over the rest of this century as the consequences of our choices manifest themselves.

You can interpret these facts in different ways but you don’t get to argue about these things. They are the facts of the current Climate Crisis.

Here is one of the CONSEQUENCES.

The oceans are heating up. A LOT.

Figure 1. Time series of anomalies (J) in the heat content of the global ocean from 1980 to 2024 in the upper 300 m (dark blue), 700 m (light blue), 2000 m (red) and 700–2000 m (grey dashed line), relative to the average for the 1993–2023 reference period. Showing five-member ensemble means (solid lines) and ensemble spread (shading). Source: ORAS5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

Notice that the baseline here is a 1993 to 2023 average. If you used an older period for the ocean temperature, the warming would be even more pronounced.

In this view the baseline is a 1991 to 2020 average.

The red peak before 2000 is the 1998 El Nino. The hottest year of the 20th century. Peaks here correspond to El Ninos with the troughs being the “cool” years after the oceans release heat. Since 2014 the oceans have been rapidly getting warmer.

This ocean warming has not been evenly distributed across the planet. Heat tends to “build up” in places.

The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean have gotten a LOT warmer over the last 30 years.

Which we can see today.

Look at the heat buildup in the Mediterranean and around Europe. That translates into HOT weather.

This ocean warming doesn’t stay in the ocean. That HEAT moves into the atmosphere and makes things HOT.

Europe heat wave continues as UN chief warns of 'new normal' - DW - 06/30/2025

Record-breaking heat continues to scorch most of Western Europe. Spain broke its June heat record, and extreme…www.dw.com

Paris forced into shutdown as 39C peak predicted

The Eiffel Tower, a nuclear power station and more than a thousand schools subject to closures in France as wildfires…www.thetimes.com

Spain records highs of 46C and France under alert as Europe swelters in heatwave

Extreme heat 'the new normal', says UN chief, as authorities across the continent issue health warnings….www.theguardian.com

This HEAT has consequences BIG and small that are rippling across our world. One of the more important is that food is getting more expensive.

In both small ways.

The global price of olive oil shot up to $10,600 per metric ton in April, up from $5,300 in March. Production of olive oil in Greece and Italy is down, as heat jeopardizes the harvest. The high prices have sparked a spate of olive-related crimes, with people stealing olives and the oil extracted from them in Halkidiki, Crete and Kalamata. This is a big deal in Greece, where olive oil is responsible for not only 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product but also 25 percent of Greek agriculture.

Lauren Markham, Bloomberg

and LARGE ways.

‘This is the worst that I can remember,’ southern Saskatchewan RMs declare drought emergency ….the Regional Municipalities are calling for crop insurance programs to be updated to support farmers who have been losing money for the ninth year in a row due to drought.

You can argue about the significance of these facts but you cannot change them.

The die has already been cast.

Now we find out HOW BAD what we have done is going to be.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

• rc 07/02/2025

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