The Crisis Report - 11
Enjoy today. The rest of the year, the forecast is for HEAT.
So, last year (March 1, 2022) I made a forecast.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03 :We are having a Sarajevo moment.
Here’s what I said then.
The first big “Climate Shock” is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3–5 years.
It’s a 3 part storm:
1. Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It’s simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021
Living in Bomb Time — 20 : Heat doesn’t “just happen”, where it’s coming from and why that matters.
2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
Heat in World’s Oceans More Than Ever Recorded.
Hottest ocean temperatures in history recorded last year.
3. Warming that was being masked by SOx emissions will rapidly take place due to the changes in diesel fuels in the shipping industry in 2020.
Cleaner Air in 2020: 0.5% sulfur cap for ships enters into force worldwide.
I think, that all of this will combine to push warming above 2C by 2026. I think, that the next 2–6 years are going to be insanely hot.
A few months later I wrote this.
The Crisis Report — 02 (May 15, 2022)
The UN has confirmed that we are about to get a massive temperature spike. Now, the only question is “how hot is it going to get”?
Where I concluded.
“The IPCC is forecasting warming of 0.4C by 2026.
James Hansen is forecasting 0.6C of warming by 2026.
I am forecasting 0.8C of warming by 2026.
We are all saying there is going to be warming. We are all saying part of that warming is going to be an El Nino (that’s what the IPCC is implying when they say the warming will be temporary). We are all saying that some of this warming is going to be caused by SOx getting washed out of the atmosphere.
We are all saying the same thing, we just disagree about how hot it’s going to get.
The IPCC, throughout it’s entire history, has always underestimated and understated the amount of warming that actually occurred. I would bet on warming being greater than the 0.4C they are forecasting.
We are “in crisis” right now and it’s about to get a lot hotter.”
Well, the forecasts are out.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts November 2022
The Europeans think we are going to have an El Nino. They aren’t sure about how bad it’s going to be.
The lower blue circle in November 2023 is in line with the IPCC forecast of a 0.4C “temporary” spike in global temperatures.
Earth Stands ‘50:50’ Chance Of Passing 1.5 Degrees Warming Within 5 Years — Forbes
Fifty-fifty chance’ global warming hits 1.5°C by 2026, warn scientists — Euronews
There’s a 50:50 chance the planet will pass the 1.5C warming threshold in the next 5 years — CNN
As 1.5C overshoot looms, a high-level commission will ask: what next? — Climate Home News
World has 50–50 chance of hitting 1.5C mark soon: U.N. — Frontline India
Forecasters also say there’s a 93 per cent chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record.
The upper blue circle is where Hansen and the less optimistic forecasters are predicting how hot next November will be. The two forecasts at the top are where I think it will be.
This winter has been freakishly mild.
How a ‘totally insane’ warm spell is upending winter around the world WAPO 01052022
NEXT WINTER COULD FEEL LIKE LAST JULY.
I’m going to talk about that in my next Crisis Report and Living in Bomb Time articles. In a rational world these forecasts would be headline reporting and there would be emergency global meetings being held to organize a response.
My guess is you didn’t even know the La Nina was fading. Or that the rest of this year it’s probably going to get hotter than it has for the last FIVE MILLION YEARS.
This is it. These are probably the last few weeks and months we have before our world starts to melt away in the heat. By this time next year, I think the conversation around Global Warming is going to be VERY different.
You know what’s coming. Use the time wisely.
This is what I see.
This is my analysis.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
-rc
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Click here for my “Crisis Report” Series.
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