The Crisis Report - 101
Let me present a “worst case” climate scenario to you.
The SCARIEST aspect of this scenario is how plausible it could be.
Consider the state of the world.
January 2025: warmest January and lowest Arctic sea ice extent for the month
The first month of 2025 was the warmest January globally continuing the series of record or near-record temperatures… - climate.copernicus.eu
January 2025 was the 18th month in a 19-month period with a global-average surface air temperature exceeding 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
Here’s a slightly different way to “see” what this data set tells us.
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) monthly bulletin for January 2025 the average global surface temperature in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset was 13.23ºC or +0.79ºC above the climatological average for January for the period 1991–2020. Compared to the 1850–1900 average, designated as the pre-industrial reference period, January 2025 was +1.75ºC warmer than the average for the month.
So, if we compare January 2025 against the 1850–1900 GMST average for January. It is +1.75°C over that baseline. Which is what the chart shows.
Now, if we compare it against a 1991–2020 GMST average for January. It is only +0.79°C above baseline.
What does that tell us?
It tells us that the Rate of Warming between 1850 and 1990 (140 years) averages out at +0.007°C per year.
The Rate of Warming between 1991 and 2020 (30 years) averages out at +0.026°C per year.
THE RATE OF WARMING SINCE 1991, IS 3.7X FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS 140 YEARS. Just FYI.
Now, this is something REALLY WEIRD about this January. Look at the graph again
“This is of serious concern — over the past sixty years, all twenty five La Niña January’s have been cooler than surrounding years. This is the first time that temperatures recorded during a La Niña period were above those of a preceding El Niño.” -Stefan Rahmstorf, from the University of Potsdam
Bill McGuire, a climate scientist from University College London, said it was “astonishing and frankly terrifying” that January remained at record highs despite a La Niña emerging.
January smashes heat record, surprising scientists
Last month was the hottest January on record, blitzing the previous high and stunning climate scientists who expected… - phys.org
Record January heat suggests La Niña may be losing its ability to keep global warming in check
Human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming El Niño, La Niña, and other natural climate patterns. - theconversation.com
In 2024 the Pacific swung from moderate El Niño conditions to a weak La Niña. However, it’s apparently not enough to stop the world warming — even temporarily.
So much HEAT is being “forced” into the global oceans that the “cooling” effect of the La Nina is being overridden.
This also happened in 2021/2022, “La Nina” years.
In 2021, the “Observable” Global Mean Temperature (GMT) was 1.1℃ above the 1950–1980 baseline. This happened despite it being a La Niña year in the Pacific Ocean, a weather pattern which tends to cool the planet.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
Heat in World’s Oceans More Than Ever Recorded
IN 2022 THE GMST WAS +1.2°C OVER BASELINE.
Despite it being an unusual 3rd year La Nina, global temperatures went up +0.1°C in a SINGLE YEAR.
Since 2021, the Global Mean Surface Temperature has gone up by +0.5°C IN JUST 3 years (2022/2023/2024). That averages out to a Rate of Warming of about +0.17°C PER YEAR over the last 3 years.
Mainstream Climate Science is “mystified” by what’s happening.
Hottest January on record mystifies climate scientists
EU monitor says global temperatures were 1.75C above preindustrial levels, extending run of unprecedented highs - www.theguardian.com
Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Niño event peaked in January 2024 and conditions shifted to an opposing, cooling La Niña phase.
But the heat has lingered at record or near-record levels, prompting debate about what other factors could be driving it to the top end of expectations.
Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist at Copernicus, told Agence France-Presse: “This is what makes it a bit of a surprise: you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see.”
They HOPE that global temperatures will stop going UP and that they even decline a little. Pretty much the way they have behaved over the last 60 odd years that we have been closely monitoring the Climate System.
That HOPE, isn’t based on anything. Planetary conditions have CHANGED. The earth’s ALBEDO has “dimmed” a LOT since 2014. That “dimming” means a LOT more ENERGY from the Sun is going into the Climate System, 90% of it right into the oceans.
We have a continuing, and significant negative trend. This means that more solar ENERGY enters the Climate System and warms the Earth.
That the albedo trend is negative is well established. It has been demonstrated with different methods: Ceres satellite data, and also by measuring the Earth’s back-radiation towards the Moon.
The Earth has become “less reflective” since 1997. This “dimming” accelerated around 2014 and got a LOT worse since 2021.
The climate is VERY sensitive to a reduced ALBEDO.
Scientists at NASA claim that a reduction in albedo of just -1% produces a warming effect equal to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.
From: Changes in Earth’s Albedo Measured by Satellite, Wielicki and 5 co-authors, Science 2005, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106484
The ongoing, long term reduction in albedo has produced more than twice as much warming effect in recent decades as the radiative forcing from CO2.
James Hansen has stated that the change in the earth’s albedo since 2014 is roughly equal to increasing the CO2 level by +100ppm. That’s as if it suddenly JUMPED from 425ppm(CO2) up to 525ppm(CO2) in JUST 10 years.
That’s IN ADDITION to the roughly +100ppm of CO2 equivalent climate forcing that he estimates is happening due to the sharp increase in “the other” GHG’s like methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO). Gases which have also increased dramatically in the atmosphere since 2000.
Essentially it’s as if CO2 levels increased by about +250ppm since 2000.
THERE IS NO “NATURAL” ANALOG FOR AN INCREASE IN CO2 LEVELS OVER SUCH A SHORT TIME FRAME IN THE LAST 500my.
It’s as if we turned up the thermostat from 60°F to 80°F in our apartment. The HEAT comes on BUT the room doesn't go from 60°F to 80°F instantaneously. First the furnace kicks in and warms up a bunch of air. Then it pumps that hot air into the apartment where it blends with the cold air already present. The apartment warms up gradually at a Rate of Warming based on the capacity of the furnace.
We have turned the Earth’s thermostat up to roughly +625ppm(CO2e) over the last 25 years. That works out to about +6.5°C over our 1850 baseline.
How long will it take for “our apartment”, the Earth, to warm up to that level (+6.5°C) in response to this MASSIVE climate forcing?
We used to think it would take centuries, even millennium. It might actually take a lot less. Based on the warming we have experienced over the last 5 years, the Climate System may be capable of MUCH FASTER warming than we anticipated from looking at the paleoclimate record.
Here is a WORST CASE view of what could be about to happen.
So, 2025 is basically a repeat of 2022. Which was also a La Nina year, BUT still saw an increase in the Global Mean Surface Temperature of +0.1°C.
The GMST in 2021, as reported by GISS and the IPCC, was +1.1°C over baseline.
In 2022 it INCREASED during a La Nina pattern year, in a rare/unexpected 3rd year La Nina, to +1.2°C over baseline. An increase of +0.1°C.
In 2023 the El Nino pattern caused the release of HUGE amounts of ENERGY from the oceans, particularly the Pacific. Although the GMST went over +2°C, the overall average GMST for 2023 was +1.54°C over baseline. An increase of +0.34°C in a SINGLE year.
2024 was the “back half” of the El Nino. It was expected to “come in HOT” then rapidly cool down as the Climate System processed the HEAT released by the oceans. Mostly by moving that HEAT to the High Arctic/Antarctic latitudes where it can “bleed away” during the Winter months. In reality the Global Oceans got hotter in 2024. The average GMST for the year was +1.63°C over baseline.
The Moderates in Climate Science were 100% CERTAIN that the La Nina pattern that formed in the Fall of 2024 would result in a drop in the GMST.
Instead, EVERY DAY in January 2025 has been +1.7°C over baseline.
What this tells us is that the Climate System is still processing the MASSIVE dimming of the Albedo that began in 2014 and accelerated after 2020. More ENERGY is going into the Climate System than it can release, the system is OUT of equilibrium.
Rapid warming will continue until thermal equilibrium is reached and the system is in balance once again.
James Hansen has stated that the imbalance due to the albedo dimming is about the same as a +100ppm increase in CO2 levels. That’s HOW BAD the dimming of the albedo has accelerated global warming.
Since 2014, the dimming of the albedo has had the same effect on the EEI as if CO2 levels had increased by +100ppm during the last 10 years.
If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).
That’s about +6.5°C over baseline according to the paleoclimate record. The one that mainstream climate science DOESN’T use to calibrate CO2 levels to global temperatures from but that their “new numbers” for climate sensitivity are starting to match.
If the Rate of Warming follows the pattern of the last few years. Then La Nina years should warm about +0.1°C per year. With “spikes” during El Nino years of +0.2°C up to +0.4°C PER YEAR.
With 2 El Nino’s per decade and about 6 La Nina years we may be looking at a RoW of roughly +1.2°C of warming PER DECADE now.
We could hit +2.8°C over baseline by 2035.
That’s HOW BAD the numbers are now.
That’s how scared they are starting to get in Climate Science.
We are in “uncharted territory”.
No one knows whats coming.
But the Insurance Industry predicts 4 BILLION DEAD at +3°C of warming.
A 40 page report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries University of Exeter, January 2025 states that plainly.
Does the fact that the world seems to be going “off the rails” indicate to you, that those with “inside information”, are acting as if the CLIMATE APOCALYPSE is upon us?
If we are still trending at a warming increase of +0.1°C for 2025 by this Fall then that’s what I would prepare for.
If the Rate of Warming is tightly correlated with the Earth Energy Imbalance we could be looking at the Climate Crisis suddenly becoming a CLIMATE APOCALYPSE. If the Earth warms up another +0.1°C this year it will be hard to NOT see this as the “most likely” scenario.
The behavior of a growing number of “global elites” and 1%’ers indicates that they are starting to believe something “really bad” is about to happen. Suddenly EVERYONE is playing as if this is the ENDGAME and COLLAPSE is upon us.
It could actually happen over the next 10 years.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
Addendum: Do NOT expect the Mainstream Media to inform you about the Climate Crisis.
Do not expect mainstream media outlets to “connect the dots” and draw conclusions about what’s happening with the Climate System. Which seems crazy given that the only conclusions you can reach are pretty obvious.
Such is the power of the paradigm.
None of the mainstream reporters seems to have any historical context for how things got to be way they are. They have spent their entire lives being taught “climate science” is SO complex that only a handful of specialists can understand it.
They have been told that there is ONLY ONE valid model for the Climate System, the “mainstream model” of the Moderate Faction in Climate Science. They have had it drummed into their heads that those who disagreed with that model were “deniers” or “doomers” and that both should be ignored.
They have been trained to “listen” to JUST the “High Priests” of climate science and present only their views as valid. SO, why are we surprised that the Media doesn’t seem to know HOW to think for itself when reporting on “Climate Change”.
Right now, all that the media is capable of, is reporting what the Moderates in Climate Science are telling them, i.e. “we’re mystified”. They barely know that the Alarmist faction in Climate Science exists, and if they do, they consider them to be “doomers”.
Basically, they are incapable of “connecting the dots”. What they are doing is simply repeating what they have been told. While they wait for the “trusted voices” in Climate Science to “figure it out” and then TELL THEM what to say/report.
A Paradigm Shift in Climate Science is about to happen. This is one of the first stages. The existing Orthodoxy is having to PUBLICLY admit that they cannot explain what’s happening.
As things get WORSE, and they are, the “science” of the Moderates will be called into question. Doubts about it’s validity will start to be openly expressed. Articles will FINALLY begin to “connect dots” and the reality that the Moderates were WRONG from day one will start to be discussed.
As enough scientists, both in the field and in general, begin to believe the idea that the Moderate paradigm was WRONG a “tipping point” will be reached. The Moderates will be utterly discredited and anyone stupid enough to have stuck with them will have their careers ruined.
Suddenly EVERYONE will believe the Alarmists and we will have a “new” understanding of Climate Science.
Because, that’s how SCIENCE actually “works”. That’s “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” as described by Kuhn. It’s a social process as much as anything else.
Unfortunately, we believed the Moderates for too long. They led us into the CLIMATE APOCALYPSE which as started.
I suppose after the first BILLION or so die in the next 5–10 years. That the majority will FINALLY have had their minds opened enough to see the truth and accept reality.
By then it will be too late.
What are the chances the oligarchs have been listening to these less conservative analyses all along, and are not interested in trying to make things better, or less worse, at this point and are just making a mad-dash for the worlds wealth and assets before things collapse full-on?
I am still digesting the implications if this one. .... ! .... But, while I wait for my brain to catch up to my heart, I just want to say THANK YOU. Your Crisis Reports are one of the few accessible touchstones around, where the lay person is walked through the science and implications with care. I know this takes a shit-tonne of time and effort. Massive GRATITUDE.