The Crisis Report - 100

The MAGAts are celebrating their "triumph" but it's going to be short lived. The Climate System doesn't give a fuck what they "think".

COLLAPSE has already started.

The RED line is a Global Mean Surface Temperature of 15°C. That’s the current temperature of the Earth. In 485 MILLION years it has been this low only a handful of times. The Earth we live on is NOT the “normal” state of the planet.

Since this a “landmark” Crisis Report, my 100th article. I decided to adopt a more “conversational” tone. I appreciate all of my readers. Both those that have been with me since the first and those who have joined us recently.

I know, particularly after hanging out on Reddit for a few months, how difficult it can be for ANYONE to feel “informed” about the Climate Crisis that is upon us. With WHITE America voting for the “Alfred E. Nueman, I’m with Stupid” party things are only going to get worse.

Climate misinformation is rife on social media - and poised to get worse
Meta's decision could open the floodgates to more climate misinformation on its apps, including misleading or…theconversation.com

However, the MAGAts have been “hostile” to doing anything to reduce fossil fuel consumption for a long time. Since the Reagan days of 80’s.

Americans will vote for ANYONE who promises them cheap gas for their cars and trucks. The MAGAts think this can go on forever because of “freedumb”or something.

The people who WANT to believe that bullshit are going to keep believing it right up to the point of their death. They are the dying Covid patients screaming at the nurses and doctors that “Covid is a hoax” even as it kills them.

People complain when I say that this stupidity is WHITE America. Notice anything about the demographics of this crowd? Remember 2 out of 3 White Americans voted for Trump.

There is nothing we can do for them now. They will NEVER accept the reality of “Climate Change”. Much less the idea that the Climate Crisis bearing down on us is going to cause the COLLAPSE of our global civilization.

Even as droughts destroy the land they farm.

Floods and hurricanes sweep away their homes

Flooding in Rock Valley, Iowa, has forced evacuations and rescues in the town, which has about 4,000 residents.

Wildfires get bigger and bigger.

The wildfires risk map unveiled by the Federal Emergency Management Agency April 2024. The midlatitudes are drying out and the continental interior, like the West is at risk for MASSIVE wildfires in the future.

Even with all of that. The MAGAt voters will die screaming that “Climate Change is a hoax” before they admit they were wrong. The only thing that MIGHT open their minds a tiny bit is not being able to get homeowners insurance.

California isn't the only place where insurers are dropping homeowners
Insurance "nonrenewal" rates have been climbing nationwide. They've hit climate-sensitive areas including Florida…www.washingtonpost.com

Since 2018, more than 1.9 million home insurance contracts nationwide have been dropped — “nonrenewed,” in the parlance of the industry. In more than 200 counties, the nonrenewal rate has tripled or more.

Because, despite what the MAGAts would like to believe about this being a “Liberal” problem. Insurance companies are losing money everywhere.

Care to guess what 2024 is going to look like?

When insurance companies loose money they have to raise rates. That’s a HARD FACT of life. They are in the business of “managing risk”. If they are losing money it means that CLIMATE RISKS are increasing “faster than expected”. The insurance industry is looking at the numbers and waking up to the HUGE RISKS that climate change is bringing for homeowners across the country.

Insurance companies are raising rates and lots of homeowners are deciding to “forgo” insurance. More Americans, Risking Ruin, Drop Their Home Insurance
As climate threats worsen, they are skipping payments and losing protection.www.nytimes.com -Jan 16, 2025

Homeowners in places most exposed to climate disasters are increasingly giving up on paying their insurance premiums, leaving them exposed to financial ruin, according to sweeping new government data.

Notice how many of the MAGAt states have people dropping their homeowners insurance. These same people don’t want to help California, but will expect the rest of the country to bail them out when the inevitable disasters strike.

Now here's the thing. You CANNOT simply pass a law saying insurance companies have to insure peoples houses. I mean, you can, but it will probably be a DISASTER.

The insurance companies are looking at the numbers and they are saying that Climate Change is not only happening way faster than they expected. It’s also a LOT worse than they thought.

You might want to sell your home now instead of later and “cash out” of the casino. Without insurance banks won’t make mortgage loans and the housing market will seize up. It is estimated that over $1 TRILLION dollars of “value” in the housing market is poised to “evaporate”.

This map shows changing flood risk in the US over the next 30 years, based on factors such as sea-level rise, increased precipitation and storm runoff. Researchers calculated county-level impacts on homes, schools, hospitals, public utilities and roads. In Louisiana, for example, an additional 46,000 residences and 3,600 miles of roads will be at risk of flood by 2051.

Those areas of “decreased” flood risk, you don’t want to move there. Those are the areas that are going to be turning to deserts from “mega-droughts”.

Researchers at the First Street Foundation have mapped the likelihood of wildfire today (left) and 30 years from now (right). Numbers on the scale refer to the average annual risk of wildfire in a given location. In 30 years, the most at-risk properties in the West will face an annual fire risk approaching 6 percent, which means a homeowner should expect to be hit by a wildfire roughly every 17 years.

The two big MAGAt states, Texas and Florida are basically going to become uninsurable. These projections by First Street Foundation are for a +2°C world by 2050. The numbers are now showing it could be WORSE.

Global economy could face 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from climate shocks, say actuaries - Exclusive: Report by risk experts says previous assessments ignored severe effects of climate crisis www.theguardian.com - Jan 16, 2025

“The stark warning from risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) hugely increases the estimate of risk to global economic wellbeing from climate change impacts such as fires, flooding, droughts, temperature rises and nature breakdown. In a report with scientists at the University of Exeter, the IFoA which uses maths and statistics to analyse financial risk for businesses and governments, called for accelerated action by political leaders to tackle the climate crisis.”

Ummmm…yeah. Like that's going to happen with the MAGAts running the country.

Trump Orders a U.S. Exit From the World's Main Climate Pact
The United States will be one of only four countries outside the Paris Agreement, which is designed to reduce global… www.nytimes.com Jan 20, 2025

Consider some of the other things this report states.

At +3°C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.

Sandy Trust, the lead author of the report, said there was no “realistic plan” in place to avoid this scenario. FYI- they ARE considering the deployment of “renewables” and EV’s in this report. They considered the points of the Techno-Optimists and Hopium peddlers who keep insisting that “It’s not too late” and “The future will be like the past, just without fossil fuels”.

The people like this guy on Reddit recently. He starts off by telling us that global warming is NOT ACCELERATING. He states:

“While this might be true on the timescale of a few years, mainly due to the shot-in-the-arm ironically provided by the cleaner diesel revolution (aerosol demasking and albedo ramifications), particularly in maritime applications. (Even that's dubious, though, for example due to the denuclearization of the German grid and the concomitant rise in dirty emissions. And of course some shipping companies will delay their fuel migration indefinitely.) Beyond that, though.”

There is nothing in the physics of the situation that suggests an acceleration in global warming. Please understand that warming can continue apace without accelerating.

Contrast that with this article by Zeke Hausfather, noted Climate Moderate at Berkeley Earth. Here is Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth in October 2023.

I Study Climate Change. The Data Is Telling Us Something New.

Where Zeke states.

While many experts have been cautious about acknowledging it, there is increasing evidence that global warming has accelerated over the past 15 years rather than continued at a gradual, steady pace. That acceleration means that the effects of climate change we are already seeing — extreme heat waves, wildfires, rainfall and sea level rise — will only grow more severe in the coming years.”

“I don’t make this claim lightly. Among my colleagues in climate science, there are sharp divisions on this question, and some aren’t convinced it’s happening.”

The Techno Optimists and Hopium peddlers like Hannah Ritchie ARE the “mainstream”. They are telling people that things ARE NOT getting rapidly worse. They are LYING to us and the mainstream media is pushing their lies as “the truth”.

Mr. Reddit Guy then states:

"Nuclear fusion WILL happen." Tokamak fusion probably never will. I ought to know. I worked in this field, albeit as a university student. It could most charitably be described as a research project into plasma dynamics that might bear fruit in unexpected ways. But the future is likely a mix of small and micro sized fission reactors, possibly involving thorium.”

Longer term (2032 on my Bingo card) we'll see pB11 fusion based on particle accelerator physics (i.e. not your grandfather's magnetic confinement) in commercial deployment.

OMG is that a WILD leap. “Commercial” deployment of fusion reactors in JUST seven years. Mr. Reddit Guy goes on and addresses the looming “food crisis”. He dismisses the idea that, "Mass desertification will lead to mass starvation." He argues that,

The grain belts will roughly migrate toward the poles, mile by mile. Countries that don't prepare for this are going to be struggling to afford grain importation, not to mention mass emigration. But humanity will survive. We really don't need crops.

Algae factories run on nuclear power will keep us alive. No, I don't think we'll have to stoop to such gastronomic lows, but the point is that we'll slurp it up all day long if the alternative is extinction.

A more likely scenario is that this crop migration happens so slowly that the wealthier countries of the world create massive and intelligent greenhouse agriculture to continue feeding their populations in a normal, if more expensive, manner. Robot slaves will tend the crops. Speaking of robots...

Then things get a LOT clearer. Mr. “Climate Realist” is actually against “caps” on CO2 emissions. This is his REAL point.

“(Liberals argue) that we don't NEED fusion reactors and small fission reactors (like the plutonium breeder reactors Bill Gates likes). We can just put a hard cap on carbon emissions under a Marxist system."

“Absolutely true. There is obviously a nonzero level of carbon emissions that will halt global warming (well, at least in the sense that nothing further is added to the warming pipeline). But before you do this, you might want to watch "The Killing Fields" so you'll have some idea of how Marxism has turned out, time and again, throughout history.”

“I get it: Marxism 2.0 is going to be run by good people who care about their constituents and the environment”.

“People who will gladly step aside every few years in order to allow the unarmed deprivatized population to vote. Enjoy the garbage, the corruption, the broken infrastructure, and most importantly, the new Marxist elites who simply replaced the capitalist ones that you ran out of town.”

“I don't think pure capitalism is moral, simply because it effectively imposes the death penalty on people for making bad business decisions. But we can have a basic social safety net for the “truly needy” without handing over the reigns of humanity to Marxist psychopaths.”

Who does Mr. “Tech Bro” think is going to prosper in Collapse?

(1) Societies who embrace some form of nuclear power at scale.

(2) Societies who hoard rare Earth elements.

(3) Societies who limit immigration via sufficiently high talent or money thresholds.

(4) Societies who manufacture and deploy robotics at scale.

(5) Societies who consult AI for ideas but never empower it with critical decisions.

(6) Societies who embrace cryptocurrency in a sufficiently secure and decentralized form, not necessarily involving energy-intensive proof-of-work.

(7) Societies who lower or eliminate taxes on capital gains, thereby inducing capital inflows (hello UAE, Singapore, and others).

(8) Societies who rigorously forbid polluting the environment outside of isolated industrial areas (except temporarily with CO2 emission, during nuclear buildout).

(9) Societies who recycle as much as possible, including drinking water.

“These are the characteristics of societies which will be buying raw materials from all those Marxist paradises.”

IE. the “good” capitalists societies that EVERYONE will want to live in.

This is the “Tech Bro” position on the Climate Crisis.

What do the actuaries think?

The one page executive summary. They seem a LOT less optimistic than Mr. Reddit Guy.

There is also a 40 page report where the information in the Guardian article can be found.

Remember, these are INSURANCE actuaries. People who are trained to assess and manage FUTURE RISK based on what the numbers say.

From the Foreword on page seven.

Actuaries deal with risk and uncertainty. The techniques they have developed underpin the functioning of the global pension market with $55 trillion of assets, and the global insurance market, collecting $8 trillion of premiums annually, to help us manage risk. Society trusts actuaries and other risk management professionals to minimize the risk of failure in these markets by managing the complex risks these industries face.

Global risk management is currently failing and blind to systemic risk

As well as a failure to see systemic risk, risk management can fail because risks aren’t understood due to incomplete knowledge, or are disregarded as they are considered unlikely to occur. Risks can also be badly communicated, with important messages lost in scientific detail, or fall victim to misaligned incentives such as short-term profit winning over long-term sustainability.

High-profile climate change assessments in wide use significantly underestimate risk as they exclude many of the most severe risks we could face. Yet it is these extremes that should drive policy decisions – what is society willing to accept? And what actions can we take to mitigate those outcomes that we find unacceptable?

Policymakers are currently unable to hear warnings about risks to ongoing human progress, or unwilling to act upon them with the urgency required.

They define “planetary solvency” as.

Managing human activity to minimize the risk of societal disruption from the loss of critical support services from nature.

And state.

In the same way that a solvent pension scheme is one that continues to be able to provide pensions, a solvent Earth system is one that continues to provide the services we rely on, support ongoing prosperity, and a safe and just future. An insolvent planet is one in a state where we have degraded the Earth system to such an extent that we can no longer receive enough of the critical services we rely on to support our society and economy.

For example, shortages of food and fresh water, or uninhabitable climatic conditions. Ecosystem services are often non-substitutable, meaning that once they are lost, they are unable to be replaced through another process.

They find that.

Unfortunately, many high-profile, public climate change risk assessments are significantly underestimating risk because they exclude many of the real-world impacts of climate change, such as the impact of tipping points, extreme events, migration, sea level rise, human health impacts or geopolitical risk.

Furthermore, they calculate ongoing economic growth, even in a hothouse world, with climate damages being lower than growth assumptions. These results conflict with scientific predictions of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change.

“These (mainstream) risk assessments are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right.”

The benign but flawed results may reinforce the narrative that these are slow-moving risks with limited impacts, rather than severe risks requiring immediate action.

The INSURANCE Actuaries estimate on page 32 of the report that:

There is a 50/50 chance of hitting +3°C over baseline by 2050. Which, if that happens. Could result in, more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states (with resulting rapid, enduring, and significant loss of capital), and extinction events.

At warming of +2°C they forecast.

2 billion deaths. <People thought I was crazy for making that exact estimate>

Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems. Major extinction events in multiple geographies. Ocean circulation severely impacted. Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, with low lying regions lost. Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions. Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict.

Now, think about that when you consider this chart.

The first 19 days of 2025 have averaged +1.74°C above pre-industrial levels, marking an increase of 0.1°C compared to the same period last year. Notably, this escalation occurs during a La Niña phase, which typically exerts a cooling influence, contrasting with last year's El Niño-induced warmth.

The GMST for 2024 was +1.6°C warmer than our baseline. 2025 could wind up being +1.7°C over.

We ARE going to +2°C of warming by 2035 AT THE LATEST.

No matter what the Tech Bros, Hopium Peddlers, and Techno Optimists tell you. We will be at +2°C (year round) by then. I think that means a 1.5B to 2B reduction in the human population by then.

The Insurance Actuaries agree with me.

You need to REALLY think about who and what you BELIEVE about Climate Change now. The last “good years” are over and things are going to get BAD incredibly fast from now on. COLLAPSE is accelerating.

Just like the Rate of Warming.

This is my analysis.

This is what I see.

This is my “Crisis Report”.

— rc 012125

Addendum: Commentary from the discussion on reddit.

The way to SEE this report in context. Is to see it as a statement by the insurance industry that "Climate Science" SCREWED them.

They are saying, in very polite language, that the industry has been blindsided because they believed what mainstream climate science and climate scientists have been saying for the last 20 years. They believed in "Climate Science" which indicated,

these are slow-moving risks with limited impacts, rather than severe risks requiring immediate action.

They assessed RISK based on what mainstream climate science has been saying. Now they are finding that "Climate Change" is happening not just "faster than expected" but also MUCH WORSE than they thought. When they say.

“These (mainstream) risk assessments are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right.”

They are talking about models built around mainstream Climate Science and its forecasts and projections.

They are telling everyone who has "eyes to see and ears to hear" that MAINSTREAM Climate Science is WRONG and that things are MUCH WORSE than they thought.

Personal Notes:

If you are new to my stuff I maintain an index of my past articles here on Substack.

SubStack Index : A Guide to my Stack.

I am also on Medium.

A Mind at Work - A catalogue of Articles I’ve Written.