The Crisis Report -06 : Heat doesn't "just happen".
The Crisis Report -06 : Heat doesn't "just happen".
Where it’s coming from, and why that matters to all of us.
So, in my last piece “The Crisis Report - 05” I concluded by saying that there was “unexplained” extra heat in the Climate System. That, when I compared the expected amount of warming for the decade 2010-2020, against the observed amount of warming, there was too much heat.
That bothered me. It bothered me a LOT.
Because HEAT on a planetary scale, doesn’t just pop-up suddenly out of nowhere. With Global Warming, a few tenths of a degree that “no one cares about”, is a decade’s worth of extra warming.
As an analyst this was a red flag. Like Cliff Stoll in “The Cuckoo’s Egg”, I had to understand what was happening.
But, before we talk about that, I want you to take a moment to look carefully at the chart above. It’s from the last IPCC report and it’s shocking in what it tells us is happening with the world’s climate system.
Remember, the IPCC reports use numbers that are the result of compromise and negotiation. Historically, they have underestimated the speed and scope of the effects increasing levels of CO2 would have on the climate system. You should probably view these numbers as “optimistic”. Realistically the actual numbers are probably worse.
Which is why you should be scared that they are saying the “Actual Level” of global warming is now between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃.
See the grey bar on the far left. The one that says, “Observed Warming”. That’s the 1.1℃ that the GISS, NOAA, and the IPCC are saying is the total amount of global warming since “the late 19th century”. When the mainstream press says there has been 1.1℃ or 1.2C of warming from increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. That’s the number they are using.
Now move to the right.
The first bar is “Total Human Influence”. It’s equal to the “Observed Warming” bar because they are the same thing. The only thing you can “observe” is the net result of all the human influences on the climate.
Now move to the right.
“Well-mixed greenhouses gases” is the next bar. This is the sum of all the warming caused by all the types of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It’s mostly the effect of CO2 and CH4 (Methane) but there are others, including nitrous oxide, VOC, and carbon monoxide. The chart just to the right breaks out what the components of global warming are by gas.
The sum of all these gases is 1.5℃.
That’s what the IPCC is saying the actual total for global warming is “right now”. Not “observable” warming, actual warming.
At a minimum we are already at 1.5℃. Anyone who tells you differently doesn’t understand what this chart says.
Here’s what else it says.
It tells us that the reason the “Observed Warming” number is lower than the “Well-mixed greenhouse gases” number is the cooling effect that “Other Human Drivers” is having.
This is geoengineering.
The IPCC is clearly saying that we are cooling the planet by about 0.4℃. We may not have meant to cool the planet, but we are. This geoengineering has made it seem cooler than it really should be for a long time.
In this paper “Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality” published in 2020, the lead author states:
“Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change. Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970.”
How are we doing this?
Mostly by injecting massive amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere all around the planet via the diesel fuel used in the world’s shipping and military fleets. This cools the planet by making it more reflective to the sun’s energy. It increases the Earth’s albedo. The important thing to remember is this.
If we stop putting sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, ALL the cooling effect goes away in 3–5 years.
The planet is not at 1.1℃ of warming we are at 1.5℃ of warming at a minimum. That’s what the IPCC, whose numbers are among the most optimistic, is telling you with this chart. Which brings us to another aspect of the “Well-mixed greenhouse gases” bar, the probable range bar.
See the black line the arrow is pointing at, that’s indicating the range of error that the researchers feel goes with the 1.5℃ estimate of the current level of warming. What they are saying is,
“We think there has been 1.5℃ of warming since the late 19th century but it could be as low as 1.1℃ or as high as 2.0℃ “.
Now consider the IPCC’s track record. They have never “overstated” the amount of warming we are experiencing even once. In fact, they have underestimated the amount of warming and the speed at which it would happen consistently.
When you look at a chart like this, buried on page seven of the “Executive Summary” you are seeing a “culture war” made manifest. If you are familiar with Kuhn’s work you understand that science is a “social process”.
The clue that there was a huge amount of infighting about the final numbers in this chart is the size of the “error bar”. You are seeing a disagreement between two camps of Climate Scientists.
One group, “the old paradigm camp”, is arguing that warming cannot be as high as 1.5C already. They are maintaing that the extra heat in the system is “left over” from the 2016 El Nino years. On the chart, this camp’s views are reflected by the DOWN range of the error bar.
The “old paradigm camp” maintains that warming cannot be higher than 1.2C.
The “new paradigm camp” is arguing that warming may already be as high as 2.0C
Their argument is basically built around the fact that the planet is warming up much faster than it should if the old paradigm was correct. This last summer, temperatures globally reached levels not expected for 40 to 50 more years according to the existing models.
The new paradigm camp is coalescing around the results of a number of long term projects which indicate catastrophic changes are rapidly happening in the Climate System. This camp argues that the old camp screwed up massively and may have killed everyone with their arrogance and stupidity.
On the chart, this camp’s views are reflected by the UP range of the error bar.
If you ask me what I think, I would say.
Based on the IPCC’s previous history, I think the most realistic estimate of actual global warming is between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Probably on the high side of that range.
That would agree with what the “silent majority” of climate scientists and the data are saying.
We are close to 2.0℃ of warming “right now” and are certainly going to be there before 2050. Our world is rapidly heating up and it has started warming up even faster in the last eight years.
We know this for certain because we measured its reflectivity.
The degree of reflectivity of a material in astronomical terms is its “albedo”.
Core Concept: Albedo is a simple concept that plays complicated roles in climate and astronomy
This can have a massive impact on the Earth’s climate.
This is what I see.
This is my analysis.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
-rc