The Crisis Report — 01
The “Climate Crisis” we all feared, has started. It’s happening right now.
Things are about to get bad. Really bad.
When I started writing three years ago (It’s Raining in Antarctica and the Arctic is on Fire) I planned to write on Global Warming and Climate Change as a “Climate Realist”. Then Covid happened.
I obsessed about Covid and wrote about it exclusively for six months. Finally being moved to return to my climate analysis when I saw this article.
‘Canary in the coal mine’: Greenland ice has shrunk beyond return, study finds
Based on this paper.
“Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat”
Because, WTF people.
In August 2020 they announced that Greenland has passed the point of “no return”.
Finding; that based on the amount of thermal energy which has already accumulated in the climate system, it’s going to completely melt. Even if we get to Net Zero tomorrow, Greenland is going to melt, it’s “baked in” now.
When Greenland melts completely global sea levels will rise about 20 feet, or 7 meters.
We aren’t talking about “if” anymore. We are way past that. Now, we are discussing “how fast”.
It could happen much faster than we used to think.
Because, it turns out that there was an unforeseen amplifier when it comes to melting glacial ice. Gravity.
Two+ Years Later
Greenland is still melting.
Melting surface ice forms huge lakes on top of the glaciers each summer. The water finds\melts cracks in the ice and starts flowing down. Deeper and deeper into the glacier. Until it reaches the bottom and the lake suddenly drains.
When it finds a weakness in the ice, huge amounts of water can drain out of one of these lakes in just hours. Flowing from the surface to the bottom of the glacier.
What no one foresaw, was how much the movement of the water in one of these flows could warm the water up further.
The Greenland glaciers are 5,000 feet thick on average, about one mile. Water, falling through the glacier for that mile picks up speed. Speed plus friction makes heat. Falling water also has kinetic energy. That energy also becomes heat. The study found that.
“The ice sheet covering Greenland is melting rapidly at its base and is injecting far more water and ice into the ocean than previously understood, which could have serious ramifications for global sea level rise.
“Unprecedented” rates of melting have been observed at the bottom of the ice sheet, caused by huge quantities of meltwater falling down from the surface, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
As the meltwater falls, its gravitational potential energy is converted to kinetic energy, which ultimately warms the water as it pools at the base of the ice sheet. In that process, the study found that the Greenland ice sheet produces more energy than the world’s 10 largest hydroelectric dams combined.
“However, the heat generated by the falling water is not used to generate electricity. Instead, it melts the ice” stated Poul Christoffersen, a Cambridge University senior scientist who took part in the study.
That meltwater contributes to more melting at the bottom of the ice sheet. Where it also behaves as a lubricant that promotes faster flow and increases the quantity of ice discharged into the ocean.
The water flows become like hot needles being pressed into the ice, accelerating glacial melt by about 8% every year.
That bump of 8%. That’s like compounding interest. It starts out fairly small, but it builds on itself rapidly.
Once this effect started happening. Once we crossed the “tipping point” of enough ice melt accumulation during a summer for these conditions to occur. Greenland’s meltdown started accelerating.
We don’t know anymore how long Greenland will take to melt. Because every time we adjust our models, something new happens.
That should scare you. Because it could happen very quickly.
We could get 10 feet of sea level rise from Greenland by 2100. That “fast melt” scenario usually results in most of the world’s coastal cities being “drowned”. Including the ports that are the nodal points of the global supply chain.
Here’s a “Climate Change” joke.
“Quick, what’s the difference between a heat ray hitting the Earth and climate change?”
The joke is that,
“There is no difference, your perception of it depends entirely on your timescale. The effects are the same”.
With “Global Warming” temperature is only half of the equation. The other half is speed. With Global Warming, the faster it happens, the worse it is.
A “fast melt” scenario is a “Climate Catastrophe”. More than one-third of humanity lives within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of a coastline.
If Greenland melts slowly over the next 500 years, we will be able to adapt to seven meters of sea level rise. The world is full of the ruins of cities that died as a result of climate change. Ours wouldn’t be the first.
500 years is a very long time in human terms.
Consider what the US was, just 250 years ago. In human terms, 500 years is time enough for old cities to die and new ones to arise. Greenland melting over 500 years, while not great, is “manageable” sea level rise.
What’s happening now is not.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported recently that the next 30 years could cause seas to rise in the coastal United States as much as they did in the past century — about 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 cm).
“By 2050, moderate flooding ,which is typically disruptive and damaging by today’s weather, sea level, and infrastructure standards, is expected to occur more than 10 times as often as it does today,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, NOAA national ocean service director, in a press release.
“These numbers mean a change from a single event every 2–5 years to multiple events each year, in some places.”
This report came out a week before the European paper. It does not include updated projections factoring in Greenland melting 5–10X faster than expected.
So, even before the new paper on Greenland came out, NOAA was forecasting a foot of sea level rise by 2050. Do you remember when forecasting a foot of sea level rise by 2100 would get you labeled a “Climate Pessimist”?
The most conservative possible estimate for sea level rise is now 1 foot (30cm) over the next 30 years!
When you consider the new data from Greenland. Is there anyone who thinks sea level rise over the next 30 years is “only” going to be one foot? Realistically it’s going to be between 2–3 feet.
That’s going to happen over the next 30 years.
That’s just one part of the “Climate Crisis” that has started unfolding.
The Climate Crisis is upon us “right now”.
In Ukraine we are seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.
Agricultural output failures of 40% are already happening.
Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
Yes, Putin does know about Climate Change, he knows a lot.
I think things are much worse than the projections. I think we are about to find out how “off” the models were.
I am an extreme outlier right now. No one else is seeing the disaster I am predicting yet. So, I could just be a very smart “crazy person”.
Here’s the thing though. Do you think is any of these statements is incorrect.
That a hot El Nino is coming.
That cuts in the sulfur content of diesel fuels in shipping will cause warming over the next 3 years.
That record amounts of heat are flowing into the oceans.
That the 20 year study of the planetary albedo shows a diminishment of the Earth’s albedo and an increase in the level of energy the climate system is absorbing (reflected in proxy by the amount of energy the oceans are absorbing).
Do you disagree with any of those statements?
What no one wants to say, is that these are going to combine and cause megadeaths over the next five years.
If you say that the “Climate Crisis” has started, you become a “Doomer” crazy person. But, here we are.
I’m the crazy person telling you that “life as we knew it” ends in 12–18 months. That we are “in crisis” right now, even if it is happening so slowly that it’s hard to perceive.
Understanding what’s going on can save your life. Being able to see what’s coming in the next few years can mean the difference between being able to sell your house in Florida. Or having it get washed away and getting nothing from bankrupt insurance companies.
The condos that collapsed in Miami last year won’t be the last.
So, here we are. If you read this far, you are either crazy like me, or uneasy enough by what you are seeing to start listening to crazy people talk. In a year I think the truth will be obvious.
Guess what! I hope I’m wrong.
I am normally inclined to a more conservative analysis. But we live in strange times now.
The need for more data before reaching a conclusion is always with us. We all fear “jumping to a conclusion” and being wrong. If you are a scientist or a doctor that can be career ending.
Waiting for certainty can be worse.
Back in July of 2020 I wrote a six month analysis on Covid (This is Going to be Bad — 08) where I declared it to be an airborne virus. The CDC was still saying it was transmitted by droplets on surfaces.
This was stupid on their part because the evidence overwhelmingly indicated that the virus was airborne. But they “had to be 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt certain” that what they said was correct.
They didn’t declare the virus airborne for another 18 months. By which time this information was worthless.
After two years, we all knew the virus was airborne. They weren’t leading, they were following. It was pathetic.
By the time we have “perfect knowledge” of how the Earth’s climate system works it will be too late to do anything to save ourselves.
As an analyst, who was also a military officer at one point in my life, I was trained to make decisions based on what you know at that instant. Which is why I am putting this “out there”. I think I have a responsibility to warn as many people as I can about what’s going on.
But, just so we are clear.
You do understand that right now, I am “the lunatic fringe” of serious climate writers. You get that, right?
I am forecasting fatalities between 800 million and 1.5 billion over the next five years. At this time, I am alone in this forecast.
No other agency or analyst publicly agrees with me at this time. Even those who are warning of a “food crisis” because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are not projecting famine deaths in the tens of millions.
But, here we are.
This is my analysis.
This is what I see.
This is my “Crisis Report”.
Let’s get through this together.
DISCLAIMER:
I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:
I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.
The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.
Back in the early 90’s I did National Security level analysis and threat assessment reports for a few years. My professional degree is a double major in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, but it is from the 70’s and has only minor relevance to the world today.
I also have a “hobby” degree in Anthropology and a passion for Mesoamerican archeology (see my old Tumblr blog if you are interested, The Archeotourist — Mesoamerica). None of which makes me an “expert” on climate science.
The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles I publish here, is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion. You have been warned.